软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 11 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 周一，ICE 美棉上涨 0.12%，报收 64.21 美分/磅，CF601 环比下跌 0.22%，报收 13445 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 14902 手至 57.13 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 14315 元/吨，较前一日下降 40 元/吨。国际市场方面，宏观层面仍有扰动，美联 储 12 月降息 25bp 概率跌破 50%，美元指数坚挺。基本面方面，阔别已久 USDA | | | | 月报终于公布，报告环比调增全球棉花产量预期值，增幅主要来自于美国、中国 | | | 棉花 | 和巴西，全球棉花库销比预计同比调增，但绝对值来看，影响有限。后续市场关 | 震荡 | | | 注重心将仍在于宏观及其余数据何时能够恢复正常公布，给予市场更多锚点。国 | | | | 内市场方面，短期供应压力是市场无法忽视的问题，棉花商业库存两周时间增加 | | | | 120 余万吨，而且供应高峰期仍将持续一定时间。综合来看，预计短期郑棉在供应 | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Cotton is expected to show an oscillating trend. ICE US cotton dropped 0.35% to 64.58 cents per pound on Thursday, and CF601 decreased 0.11% to 13,490 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 1,984 lots to 562,900 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,380 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan from the previous day. Macro factors still cause disturbances in the international market. The US government ended its longest shutdown, but the expectation of interest - rate cuts is still volatile. The probability of a 25bp interest - rate cut by the Fed in December dropped to nearly 50%. The long - awaited USDA monthly report is about to be released. It is expected that the inventory - to - sales ratio of US cotton in the 2025/26 season will decline year - on - year. In the domestic market, the center of Zhengzhou cotton futures prices has moved slightly lower, mainly due to supply pressure. However, there is some support below, and the probability of breaking the previous low again is low. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton is under pressure above and may adjust, but the amplitude is expected to be limited, showing an oscillating and slightly weak trend [1]. - Sugar is also expected to oscillate. The French Ministry of Agriculture lowered the beet production forecast for the 2025/26 season to 33.7 million tons, 500,000 tons less than the previous estimate. The estimated beet production is still 3.5% higher than that in the 2024/25 season and 8.7% higher than the average of the past five years. The spot price of sugar in Guangxi increased by 20 yuan per ton, while that in Yunnan remained stable. The international raw sugar price fell back after rising and closed below 14.5 cents per pound. The domestic sugar futures market is relatively strong, trying to break through the 5,500 - yuan - per - ton mark. The current market is regarded as a small - scale rebound, and caution is needed regarding the upside [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Cotton**: ICE US cotton and CF601 both declined. The main contract position decreased. The spot price index dropped. International macro factors are volatile, and the USDA report is awaited. Domestic supply pressure is the main factor affecting prices, but there is support below. Short - term adjustment is expected with limited amplitude [1]. - **Sugar**: The French beet production forecast was lowered. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends. International raw sugar prices fell back, and the domestic market is trying to break through a key level, with a small - scale rebound expected [1]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 5 yuan, up 5 yuan. The main contract basis was 1,336 yuan, up 54 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang was 14,614 yuan per ton, down 56 yuan, and the national average was 14,851 yuan per ton, up 9 yuan [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 73 yuan, up 5 yuan. Data for the main contract basis and spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou were missing [2]. Market Information - On November 13, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 4,180, an increase of 296 from the previous trading day, with 878 valid forecasts. The arrival prices of cotton in different domestic regions varied, with Xinjiang at 14,614 yuan per ton, Henan at 14,873 yuan per ton, Shandong at 14,851 yuan per ton, and Zhejiang at 14,950 yuan per ton [2]. - On November 13, the yarn comprehensive load remained unchanged at 51.2, the yarn comprehensive inventory remained unchanged at 26.3, the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load remained unchanged at 51.9, and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory decreased by 0.1 to 29.3 [3]. - On November 13, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 7,721, with 1,183 valid forecasts [4]. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts show the historical trends of cotton and sugar, including the closing prices, basis, 1 - 5 spreads, warehouse receipts, and effective forecasts of their main contracts, providing data support for analyzing the market trends of these two soft commodities [6][14]

农产品团队 贾晖 Z000183 余德福 Z0019060 曹以康 F03133687 20250920棉系周报： 新棉逐步上量施压盘面 警惕阶段性抢收反弹 | | | | | | 棉花供需平衡表(9月) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目名称 | | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2025/26 | 2025/26 | 环比变化 | 同比变化 | | | 中国 | 581.3 | | 595.5 | 696.6 | (8月) 685.8 | (9月) | 21.8 | 10.9 | | | | | 669.5 | | | | 707.5 | | | | | 印度 | 529.1 | 572.6 | 553.0 | 522.5 | 511.6 | 522.5 | 10.9 | 0.0 | | | 巴西 | 235.6 | 255.2 | 317.2 | 370.1 | 397.3 | 397.3 | 0.0 | 27.2 | | | 美国 | ...