Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, the ICE U.S. cotton fell 1.21% on Thursday, closing at 65.37 cents per pound, and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased 0.32% month - on - month, closing at 15,350 yuan per ton. The short - term market's trading on the expected year - on - year decline in the global and U.S. cotton inventory - to - sales ratio for the 2026/27 season has ended, and market sentiment has cooled. In the medium - to - long - term, there may still be some room for cotton prices to rise, but in the short - term, there may be a certain correction, and the resonance between domestic and international cotton may be stronger than before. The view is "oscillation" [1] - For sugar, the Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) released the third forecast data for the 2025/26 sugar production season. The domestic sugar price trend is significantly different from that of raw sugar. The futures price has increased in volume for two consecutive trading days. In the absence of significant changes in the fundamentals, it is still regarded as a range - bound market. The view is "oscillation" [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Cotton**: The ICE U.S. cotton price declined, and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract decreased slightly. The short - term market sentiment cooled, but in the medium - to - long - term, there is still room for price increase. The main driving factors this week include the resonance of ICE U.S. cotton, the expected decline in China's cotton inventory - to - sales ratio in the 2026/27 season, and the expectations of domestic planting area reduction and target price policy [1] - **Sugar**: The ISMA released the sugar production forecast for the 2025/26 season. The raw sugar price has been weak recently, and the domestic sugar price trend is different from that of raw sugar. The futures price has increased in volume, and attention should be paid to the upcoming February production and sales data [1] Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 5 - 9 contract spread is - 15, a decrease of 110; the main contract basis is 1331, an increase of 382. The spot price in Xinjiang is 16,548 yuan per ton, an increase of 511; the national spot price is 16,681 yuan per ton, an increase of 352 [2] - **Sugar**: The 5 - 9 contract spread is - 11, an increase of 4; the main contract basis is 75, a decrease of 27. The spot price in Nanning is 5350 yuan per ton, an increase of 20; the spot price in Liuzhou is 5360 yuan per ton, an increase of 10 [2] Market Information - On February 26, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 11,137, an increase of 13 from the previous trading day, with 1233 valid forecasts [3] - On February 26, the arrival prices of cotton in different domestic regions were: 16,548 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 16,709 yuan per ton in Henan, 16,712 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 16,741 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3] - On February 26, the comprehensive load of yarn was 41, an increase of 1.9 from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 23.7, an increase of 0.1 from the previous day; the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 36.3, an increase of 7.3 from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 32.8, the same as the previous day [3] - On February 26, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5350 yuan per ton, an increase of 20 yuan per ton from the previous trading day; the spot price in Liuzhou was 5360 yuan per ton, an increase of 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day [3] - On February 26, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 14,461, the same as the previous trading day, with 1488 valid forecasts [4] Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts, including the closing price, basis, 5 - 9 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of cotton, as well as the closing price, basis, 5 - 9 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of sugar [6][8][9][11][14][15][17]

Sugar Industry - The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF) in India reported that as of February 14, 2025/26 crushing season, 80 sugar mills have stopped operations, leaving 454 mills still in operation, with a total cane crushed of 24,195.9 million tons and sugar production of 2,253 million tons, an increase of 275 million tons or 13.9% compared to the same period last year [2][6] - Current spot prices for sugar in Guangxi range from 5,290 to 5,380 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 20 CNY/ton for some quotes; Yunnan's prices remain stable at 5,120 to 5,180 CNY/ton, while processing sugar prices range from 5,580 to 5,800 CNY/ton, with some quotes down by 50 CNY/ton [2][6] - The raw sugar market is currently in a phase of production realization in the Northern Hemisphere, with India's latest sugar production forecast falling below 30 million tons, while the March raw sugar contract remains at low levels [2][6] - Domestic sugar crushing continues, leading to an accumulation of inventory, and after a brief post-holiday replenishment, the market is expected to remain under pressure during the consumption off-season [2][6] Cotton Industry - On Wednesday, ICE cotton prices rose by 0.92% to 66.16 cents per pound, while the main contract for Zheng cotton increased by 1.92% to 15,380 CNY/ton, with a rise in open interest by 64,057 contracts to 823,400 contracts [3][7] - The recent upward trend in U.S. cotton prices is attributed to a resonance between expectations and reality, with the USDA's February outlook forum predicting a year-on-year decline in the global and U.S. cotton stock-to-use ratio for the 2026/27 season [3][7] - Recent data shows that U.S. upland cotton net export sales exceeded 100,000 tons for the week, marking a recent high for the same period [3][7] - In the domestic market, Zheng cotton has seen consecutive increases in open interest post-holiday, driven by factors such as the upward movement of ICE cotton prices, expectations of a lower stock-to-use ratio in China, and adjustments in planting area and target price policies [3][7] - The overall outlook suggests that the resonance between domestic and international cotton prices may strengthen, with a generally bullish view on price movements in the medium to long term [4][7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For cotton, on Tuesday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.55% to close at 65.5 cents per pound, and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose 3.8% to close at 15,285 yuan per ton, with the main contract's open interest increasing by 92,446 lots to 759,400 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 16,205 yuan per ton, up 415 yuan per ton from the previous day. The main drivers for the increase of Zhengzhou cotton are: during the Chinese Spring Festival holiday, the price of ICE U.S. cotton futures rose by more than 2%; the USDA's February Agricultural Outlook Forum predicted that the inventory-to-sales ratios of global, U.S., and Chinese cotton in the 2026/27 season will all decline year-on-year; there are expectations of a reduction in domestic planting area and target price policy. In the short term, it is difficult to have a continuous unilateral market, but in the medium and long term, there is a certain upside space for both domestic and international cotton prices [2]. - For sugar, as of February 15, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 63.4728 million tons, a decrease of 4.4602 million tons or 6.57% compared with the same period last year. The sugar content of sugarcane was 12.53%, an increase of 0.16% compared with the same period last year. The sugar production rate was 10.77%, an increase of 0.197% compared with the same period last year. The sugar production was 6.8356 million tons, a decrease of 346,700 tons or 4.83% compared with the same period last year. The spot quotes of sugar are stable. The raw sugar price is strong due to the U.S. tariff issue. In the future, the market will focus on the final production in the Northern Hemisphere and the estimated production in the new Brazilian sugar season. Under the background of a bumper harvest, the upside of sugar prices is limited. In China, sugar mills are still in the peak inventory accumulation period and the consumption is in the off - season, so the market lacks drivers and will remain volatile [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 5 - 9 contract spread is 55, with a month - on - month increase of 115; the main contract basis is 785, with a month - on - month decrease of 594. The spot price in Xinjiang is 15,789 yuan per ton, down 31 yuan; the national spot price is 16,070 yuan per ton, down 18 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The 5 - 9 contract spread is - 11, with a month - on - month decrease of 5; the main contract basis is 121, with a month - on - month decrease of 18. The spot price in Nanning is 5,330 yuan per ton, unchanged; the spot price in Liuzhou is 5,350 yuan per ton, unchanged [3]. 2. Market Information - On February 24, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 11,013, an increase of 12 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 1,141 [4]. - On February 24, the arrival prices of cotton in different regions of China were: 15,789 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 16,179 yuan per ton in Henan, 16,113 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 16,203 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [4]. - On February 24, the comprehensive load of yarn was 32.9, an increase of 22 from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 23.5, an increase of 0.2 from the previous day; the comprehensive load of staple fiber cloth was 23.9, an increase of 12.7 from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of staple fiber cloth was 32.8, an increase of 0.1 from the previous day [4]. - On February 24, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,330 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the spot price in Liuzhou was 5,350 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [4]. - On February 24, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 14,461, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 717 [5]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides various charts related to cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, contract spread, warehouse receipts, and price index of cotton, as well as the closing price, basis, contract spread, and warehouse receipts of sugar [7][9][10][11][12][13][15][16][18].

Sugar Industry - As of February 15, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume reached 63.4728 million tons, a decrease of 4.4602 million tons or 6.57% compared to the same period last year [5] - The sugar content in sugarcane was 12.53%, an increase of 0.16% from 12.37% last year [5] - The sugar production rate was 10.77%, up by 0.197% from 10.573% last year, with total sugar production at 6.8356 million tons, down by 346,700 tons or 4.83% year-on-year [5] - Current spot prices for sugar in Guangxi range from 5,290 to 5,400 CNY/ton, while in Yunnan, prices are between 5,120 and 5,180 CNY/ton, with processing plants quoting between 5,580 and 5,800 CNY/ton, showing stability [5] - The raw sugar market is supported by U.S. tariff issues, leading to strong futures prices, but future price increases may be limited due to expected high production levels in the Northern Hemisphere and Brazil [5] - Domestic sugar factories are in a peak inventory accumulation period during the off-season for consumption, leading to a lack of market drivers and a forecast of continued fluctuations [5] Cotton Industry - On Tuesday, ICE cotton rose by 0.55%, closing at 65.5 cents per pound, while the main contract for Zheng cotton increased by 3.8% to 15,285 CNY/ton, with open interest rising by 92,446 contracts to 759,400 contracts [6] - The cotton price index for 3128B was 16,205 CNY/ton, up by 415 CNY/ton from the previous day [6] - The increase in Zheng cotton prices is driven by several factors, including a more than 2% rise in ICE cotton prices during the domestic spring holiday, and USDA's February agricultural outlook indicating a year-on-year decline in cotton stock-to-use ratios for 2026/27 in major producing countries [6] - Domestic planting area reductions and expectations for target price policy adjustments are becoming clearer as new cotton planting is expected to begin in about a month [6] - Overall, the correlation between domestic and international cotton prices may strengthen, with limited short-term single-direction trends but potential upward space for prices in the medium to long term [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For cotton, on Monday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.12% to 64.21 cents per pound, CF601 fell 0.22% to 13,445 yuan per ton, and the main contract position increased by 14,902 lots to 571,300 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,315 yuan per ton, a decrease of 40 yuan per ton from the previous day. Globally, there are still macro - level disturbances, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25bp in December is below 50%, and the U.S. dollar index is strong. The USDA monthly report increased the global cotton production forecast, mainly from the U.S., China, and Brazil, and the global cotton inventory - to - sales ratio is expected to increase year - on - year. In the domestic market, the short - term supply pressure is significant, with the commercial cotton inventory increasing by over 1.2 million tons in two weeks. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton may adjust under supply pressure in the short term, but the adjustment range is limited, and the overall pattern is expected to be volatile [1]. - For sugar, in the second half of October, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 31.108 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.902 million tons or 14.34%. The sugar production was 2.068 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 292,000 tons or 16.40%. The spot sugar prices in various regions in China have been lowered. The Brazilian sugar production decreased significantly month - on - month but was still higher than the same period last year. Three sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing. The new sugar quotes of traders are moderate. There is no new market driver in the short term. The price is under pressure and approaching the lower limit of the range, but the cost support is effective. It is expected to remain in a weak range [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Cotton**: The international macro - environment has disturbances, and the USDA report increases the global cotton production forecast. The domestic short - term supply pressure is high. It is expected to be volatile in the short term [1]. - **Sugar**: The Brazilian sugar production data shows an increase year - on - year. The domestic sugar prices are lowered, and the market lacks new drivers. It is expected to be in a weak range [1]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread is - 10, a change of 10; the main contract basis is 1356, with no change. The spot price in Xinjiang is 14,579 yuan per ton, a decrease of 15 yuan per ton; the national spot price is 14,801 yuan per ton, a decrease of 5 yuan per ton [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread is 62, a change of - 9. Some data on the basis and spot prices are missing [2]. Market Information - On November 17, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 4,396, a decrease of 5 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 822. The cotton arrival prices in different regions in China are provided [2]. - On November 17, the yarn comprehensive load was 51.2, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 26.6, an increase of 0.1. The short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 51.9, unchanged, and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 29.3, unchanged [3]. - On November 17, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 8,622, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 183 [4]. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are provided, including the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts of cotton and sugar, showing the historical data trends of these indicators [6][8][9][10][11][12][14][15][17]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Cotton is expected to show an oscillating trend. ICE US cotton dropped 0.35% to 64.58 cents per pound on Thursday, and CF601 decreased 0.11% to 13,490 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 1,984 lots to 562,900 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,380 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan from the previous day. Macro factors still cause disturbances in the international market. The US government ended its longest shutdown, but the expectation of interest - rate cuts is still volatile. The probability of a 25bp interest - rate cut by the Fed in December dropped to nearly 50%. The long - awaited USDA monthly report is about to be released. It is expected that the inventory - to - sales ratio of US cotton in the 2025/26 season will decline year - on - year. In the domestic market, the center of Zhengzhou cotton futures prices has moved slightly lower, mainly due to supply pressure. However, there is some support below, and the probability of breaking the previous low again is low. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton is under pressure above and may adjust, but the amplitude is expected to be limited, showing an oscillating and slightly weak trend [1]. - Sugar is also expected to oscillate. The French Ministry of Agriculture lowered the beet production forecast for the 2025/26 season to 33.7 million tons, 500,000 tons less than the previous estimate. The estimated beet production is still 3.5% higher than that in the 2024/25 season and 8.7% higher than the average of the past five years. The spot price of sugar in Guangxi increased by 20 yuan per ton, while that in Yunnan remained stable. The international raw sugar price fell back after rising and closed below 14.5 cents per pound. The domestic sugar futures market is relatively strong, trying to break through the 5,500 - yuan - per - ton mark. The current market is regarded as a small - scale rebound, and caution is needed regarding the upside [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Cotton**: ICE US cotton and CF601 both declined. The main contract position decreased. The spot price index dropped. International macro factors are volatile, and the USDA report is awaited. Domestic supply pressure is the main factor affecting prices, but there is support below. Short - term adjustment is expected with limited amplitude [1]. - **Sugar**: The French beet production forecast was lowered. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends. International raw sugar prices fell back, and the domestic market is trying to break through a key level, with a small - scale rebound expected [1]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 5 yuan, up 5 yuan. The main contract basis was 1,336 yuan, up 54 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang was 14,614 yuan per ton, down 56 yuan, and the national average was 14,851 yuan per ton, up 9 yuan [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 73 yuan, up 5 yuan. Data for the main contract basis and spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou were missing [2]. Market Information - On November 13, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 4,180, an increase of 296 from the previous trading day, with 878 valid forecasts. The arrival prices of cotton in different domestic regions varied, with Xinjiang at 14,614 yuan per ton, Henan at 14,873 yuan per ton, Shandong at 14,851 yuan per ton, and Zhejiang at 14,950 yuan per ton [2]. - On November 13, the yarn comprehensive load remained unchanged at 51.2, the yarn comprehensive inventory remained unchanged at 26.3, the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load remained unchanged at 51.9, and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory decreased by 0.1 to 29.3 [3]. - On November 13, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 7,721, with 1,183 valid forecasts [4]. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts show the historical trends of cotton and sugar, including the closing prices, basis, 1 - 5 spreads, warehouse receipts, and effective forecasts of their main contracts, providing data support for analyzing the market trends of these two soft commodities [6][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the cotton industry is neutral to bearish [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gradual increase in the supply of new cotton is putting pressure on the market, but there may still be a risk of a short - term rebound due to potential local抢购 (hoarding) at the beginning. The demand side shows a weak trend, especially in the export market. It is recommended to short - allocate near - month contracts in the short term [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%. The market expects a more than 90% chance of another rate cut in October. China held a press conference to introduce policies to expand service consumption [3] Supply Factors International - In the US, the cotton boll opening rate reached 50%, the harvest progress was 9%, and the good - to - excellent rate decreased by 2% to 52% but was still 13% higher than the same period. The USDA maintained its view of US cotton production at 2.878 million tons. The overall US cotton signing progress lags behind recent years. In Brazil, the harvest progress reached 90%, and the expected production is 4 million tons. Other major northern - hemisphere producing countries are also about to enter the harvest season [3] Domestic - Domestic and international institutions have further raised the production forecast, with a guaranteed production of 7.4 million tons. New cotton has started to be harvested and inspected, and there is no obvious negative impact from rain. The pre - purchase volume of the new season may have reached over 1.5 million tons, nearly three times that of the same period last year. The initial opening price in Xinjiang is expected to be between 6.1 - 6.5 yuan/kg, and the cost of lint production is about 13,900 - 15,100 yuan/ton. In August, the total import volume of cotton resources was about 193,410 tons, a month - on - month increase of 42,644 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 56,795 tons [3] Inventory Factors - Domestically, the commercial destocking of cotton is still relatively fast, and the year - on - year difference is further widening. In the short term, the circulation pattern may still be tight. The terminal inventory continues to decline slightly, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is not strong. The USDA has lowered China's cotton stock - to - use ratio to a relatively low level in the past five years, which is expected to improve the center of cotton prices in the new year [3] Demand Factors - Domestically, the seasonal increase in the downstream operating rate and orders is blocked, and the performance is weak year - on - year. In August, the retail sales data showed an expanding year - on - year increase, but the foreign trade data was poor. The export of textile and clothing products to the US and the EU continued to weaken, while exports to ASEAN increased slightly due to textiles [3] Cotton Futures and Spot - Both the fundamental and macro - economic aspects are weak. The cotton price rose and then fell during the week [7] Supply Details - In terms of raw materials, the national commercial inventory decreased by 129,200 tons to 1.2718 million tons this week; the Xinjiang commercial inventory decreased by 97,000 tons to 649,800 tons; the commercial inventory in major inland provinces decreased by 39,500 tons to 331,500 tons. In terms of finished products, the inventory - available days of pure cotton yarn decreased by 0.04 days to 31.7 days, the terminal grey fabric inventory decreased by 0.3 days to 25.94 days, and the factory's polyester - cotton yarn inventory decreased by 0.42 days to 28 days. In August, the total import volume of cotton resources increased month - on - month. As of September 19, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 4,232, equivalent to 169,280 tons of cotton, and the outflow of warehouse receipts during the week was equivalent to 31,350 tons of cotton [19][21][23] Demand Details - The operating rate of spinning mills increased by 0.1% to 66.6% week - on - week, lower than the same period by 5.8%; the operating rate of weaving mills decreased by 0.1% to 37.9%, lower than the same period by 14.5%. The orders of textile enterprises increased by 0.53 days to 14.42 days, higher than the same period by 0.62 days. The immediate profit of the mainstream yarn count in the inland area weakened slightly to - 1,311 yuan/ton. The total cotton cloth sales volume in the light textile city increased marginally. The fabric price index in Keqiao increased by 0.18 to 110.9, and the auxiliary material price index decreased by 3.36 to 115.5. In August, the PMI of the cotton textile industry increased seasonally but was weak year - on - year. The retail sales of clothing and textiles in August increased year - on - year, but the export of textile and clothing decreased by 5% year - on - year. Exports to the US and the EU continued to weaken, while exports to ASEAN increased slightly [25][27][30][33][35] CFTC Position Data - The historically high volume of unpriced buy orders continues to suppress the rebound space of ICE [50] Macroeconomic Details - In August, domestic tax revenue weakened year - on - year, and the overseas consumer confidence index rebounded slightly [57]