软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 11 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 周一，ICE 美棉上涨 0.12%，报收 64.21 美分/磅，CF601 环比下跌 0.22%，报收 13445 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 14902 手至 57.13 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 14315 元/吨，较前一日下降 40 元/吨。国际市场方面，宏观层面仍有扰动，美联 储 12 月降息 25bp 概率跌破 50%，美元指数坚挺。基本面方面，阔别已久 USDA | | | | 月报终于公布，报告环比调增全球棉花产量预期值，增幅主要来自于美国、中国 | | | 棉花 | 和巴西，全球棉花库销比预计同比调增，但绝对值来看，影响有限。后续市场关 | 震荡 | | | 注重心将仍在于宏观及其余数据何时能够恢复正常公布，给予市场更多锚点。国 | | | | 内市场方面，短期供应压力是市场无法忽视的问题，棉花商业库存两周时间增加 | | | | 120 余万吨，而且供应高峰期仍将持续一定时间。综合来看，预计短期郑棉在供应 | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Cotton is expected to show an oscillating trend. ICE US cotton dropped 0.35% to 64.58 cents per pound on Thursday, and CF601 decreased 0.11% to 13,490 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 1,984 lots to 562,900 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,380 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan from the previous day. Macro factors still cause disturbances in the international market. The US government ended its longest shutdown, but the expectation of interest - rate cuts is still volatile. The probability of a 25bp interest - rate cut by the Fed in December dropped to nearly 50%. The long - awaited USDA monthly report is about to be released. It is expected that the inventory - to - sales ratio of US cotton in the 2025/26 season will decline year - on - year. In the domestic market, the center of Zhengzhou cotton futures prices has moved slightly lower, mainly due to supply pressure. However, there is some support below, and the probability of breaking the previous low again is low. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton is under pressure above and may adjust, but the amplitude is expected to be limited, showing an oscillating and slightly weak trend [1]. - Sugar is also expected to oscillate. The French Ministry of Agriculture lowered the beet production forecast for the 2025/26 season to 33.7 million tons, 500,000 tons less than the previous estimate. The estimated beet production is still 3.5% higher than that in the 2024/25 season and 8.7% higher than the average of the past five years. The spot price of sugar in Guangxi increased by 20 yuan per ton, while that in Yunnan remained stable. The international raw sugar price fell back after rising and closed below 14.5 cents per pound. The domestic sugar futures market is relatively strong, trying to break through the 5,500 - yuan - per - ton mark. The current market is regarded as a small - scale rebound, and caution is needed regarding the upside [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Cotton**: ICE US cotton and CF601 both declined. The main contract position decreased. The spot price index dropped. International macro factors are volatile, and the USDA report is awaited. Domestic supply pressure is the main factor affecting prices, but there is support below. Short - term adjustment is expected with limited amplitude [1]. - **Sugar**: The French beet production forecast was lowered. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends. International raw sugar prices fell back, and the domestic market is trying to break through a key level, with a small - scale rebound expected [1]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 5 yuan, up 5 yuan. The main contract basis was 1,336 yuan, up 54 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang was 14,614 yuan per ton, down 56 yuan, and the national average was 14,851 yuan per ton, up 9 yuan [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 73 yuan, up 5 yuan. Data for the main contract basis and spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou were missing [2]. Market Information - On November 13, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 4,180, an increase of 296 from the previous trading day, with 878 valid forecasts. The arrival prices of cotton in different domestic regions varied, with Xinjiang at 14,614 yuan per ton, Henan at 14,873 yuan per ton, Shandong at 14,851 yuan per ton, and Zhejiang at 14,950 yuan per ton [2]. - On November 13, the yarn comprehensive load remained unchanged at 51.2, the yarn comprehensive inventory remained unchanged at 26.3, the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load remained unchanged at 51.9, and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory decreased by 0.1 to 29.3 [3]. - On November 13, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 7,721, with 1,183 valid forecasts [4]. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts show the historical trends of cotton and sugar, including the closing prices, basis, 1 - 5 spreads, warehouse receipts, and effective forecasts of their main contracts, providing data support for analyzing the market trends of these two soft commodities [6][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the cotton industry is neutral to bearish [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gradual increase in the supply of new cotton is putting pressure on the market, but there may still be a risk of a short - term rebound due to potential local抢购 (hoarding) at the beginning. The demand side shows a weak trend, especially in the export market. It is recommended to short - allocate near - month contracts in the short term [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%. The market expects a more than 90% chance of another rate cut in October. China held a press conference to introduce policies to expand service consumption [3] Supply Factors International - In the US, the cotton boll opening rate reached 50%, the harvest progress was 9%, and the good - to - excellent rate decreased by 2% to 52% but was still 13% higher than the same period. The USDA maintained its view of US cotton production at 2.878 million tons. The overall US cotton signing progress lags behind recent years. In Brazil, the harvest progress reached 90%, and the expected production is 4 million tons. Other major northern - hemisphere producing countries are also about to enter the harvest season [3] Domestic - Domestic and international institutions have further raised the production forecast, with a guaranteed production of 7.4 million tons. New cotton has started to be harvested and inspected, and there is no obvious negative impact from rain. The pre - purchase volume of the new season may have reached over 1.5 million tons, nearly three times that of the same period last year. The initial opening price in Xinjiang is expected to be between 6.1 - 6.5 yuan/kg, and the cost of lint production is about 13,900 - 15,100 yuan/ton. In August, the total import volume of cotton resources was about 193,410 tons, a month - on - month increase of 42,644 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 56,795 tons [3] Inventory Factors - Domestically, the commercial destocking of cotton is still relatively fast, and the year - on - year difference is further widening. In the short term, the circulation pattern may still be tight. The terminal inventory continues to decline slightly, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is not strong. The USDA has lowered China's cotton stock - to - use ratio to a relatively low level in the past five years, which is expected to improve the center of cotton prices in the new year [3] Demand Factors - Domestically, the seasonal increase in the downstream operating rate and orders is blocked, and the performance is weak year - on - year. In August, the retail sales data showed an expanding year - on - year increase, but the foreign trade data was poor. The export of textile and clothing products to the US and the EU continued to weaken, while exports to ASEAN increased slightly due to textiles [3] Cotton Futures and Spot - Both the fundamental and macro - economic aspects are weak. The cotton price rose and then fell during the week [7] Supply Details - In terms of raw materials, the national commercial inventory decreased by 129,200 tons to 1.2718 million tons this week; the Xinjiang commercial inventory decreased by 97,000 tons to 649,800 tons; the commercial inventory in major inland provinces decreased by 39,500 tons to 331,500 tons. In terms of finished products, the inventory - available days of pure cotton yarn decreased by 0.04 days to 31.7 days, the terminal grey fabric inventory decreased by 0.3 days to 25.94 days, and the factory's polyester - cotton yarn inventory decreased by 0.42 days to 28 days. In August, the total import volume of cotton resources increased month - on - month. As of September 19, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 4,232, equivalent to 169,280 tons of cotton, and the outflow of warehouse receipts during the week was equivalent to 31,350 tons of cotton [19][21][23] Demand Details - The operating rate of spinning mills increased by 0.1% to 66.6% week - on - week, lower than the same period by 5.8%; the operating rate of weaving mills decreased by 0.1% to 37.9%, lower than the same period by 14.5%. The orders of textile enterprises increased by 0.53 days to 14.42 days, higher than the same period by 0.62 days. The immediate profit of the mainstream yarn count in the inland area weakened slightly to - 1,311 yuan/ton. The total cotton cloth sales volume in the light textile city increased marginally. The fabric price index in Keqiao increased by 0.18 to 110.9, and the auxiliary material price index decreased by 3.36 to 115.5. In August, the PMI of the cotton textile industry increased seasonally but was weak year - on - year. The retail sales of clothing and textiles in August increased year - on - year, but the export of textile and clothing decreased by 5% year - on - year. Exports to the US and the EU continued to weaken, while exports to ASEAN increased slightly [25][27][30][33][35] CFTC Position Data - The historically high volume of unpriced buy orders continues to suppress the rebound space of ICE [50] Macroeconomic Details - In August, domestic tax revenue weakened year - on - year, and the overseas consumer confidence index rebounded slightly [57]