Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - For sugar, after the northern hemisphere finishes the sugar - cane harvest in February and the negative impact of increased production is fully realized, international sugar prices may rebound. In China, as the supply of imported sugar decreases and sugar prices reach a low level, the downward space in the short - term is limited, so it is advisable to wait and see [5]. - For cotton, in the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuate widely at a high level due to the significant fluctuations in the commodity market. In the long - term, with the reduction of the planting area in the new season and the positive macro - economic expectations, cotton prices still have room to rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the low - buying opportunities before the Spring Festival [9]. - For protein meal, the expectation of China's increased purchase of US soybeans drives up the price of US soybeans. For China, although the long - term supply pressure increases, the import cost rises as the price of US soybeans goes up. It is expected that the price of protein meal will continue to fluctuate in the short - term [13]. - For oils and fats, driven by biodiesel policies in various countries, the increase in consumption of oils and fats this year is greater than the production growth rate, so the medium - term outlook for oil prices is positive. In the short - term, due to the significant fluctuations in the commodity market, oil prices fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to wait for a pullback and then go long [17]. - For eggs, during the inventory accumulation period around the Spring Festival, with weak demand and high inventory, the spot price is likely to fall. The near - month contract may still need to squeeze out the premium. For the far - end, the logic of capacity reduction will be re - traded after the spot price turns down, but the implementation path is still uncertain [19]. - For pigs, the large basic supply and the current accumulation of live - pig inventory make the spot and near - term expectations pessimistic. The near - term prices are still under pressure, and the strategy is to short on rebounds. For the long - term, although the reduction in production capacity has been revised down, there are still expectations of a high fat - to - standard price difference, seasonal support, and recovery in consumer demand. Pay attention to the support at lower levels after the price follows the decline [22]. 3. Summary by Categories Sugar - **Market Information**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zhengzhou sugar was 5,228 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.08% from the previous trading day. The quoted price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,270 - 5,370 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. As of the week of February 4, the number of vessels waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 49, down from 54 in the previous week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1.5644 million tons, down from 1.7826 million tons in the previous week. StoneX expects a global sugar surplus of 2.9 million tons in the 2025/26 season. As of January 31, 2026, India's sugar production reached 19.305 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.8%. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons. In 2025, China's total sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 570,000 tons. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 310,000 tons. In December, China produced 2.63 million tons of sugar, and the cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 season was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 720,000 tons; the sugar sales in December were 1.22 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales in the 2025/26 season were 1.57 million tons; the cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 31.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 25.56 percentage points; the industrial inventory was 2.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons [3][4]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the price to rebound after the negative factors are digested, and stay on the sidelines for now [5]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 14,580 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton or 0.21% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 16,025 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. As of the week of January 30, the spinning mill's operating rate was 64.2%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous week; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.65 million tons, down 50,000 tons from the previous week. From January 15 to January 22, the US current - year cotton export sales were 51,800 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.7722 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 194,900 tons; of which, the exports to China were 8,800 tons in that week, and the cumulative exports to China were 97,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 66,000 tons. In January, the USDA predicted that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season would be 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous season; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points from the December forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points from the previous season. The predicted US production was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons from the December forecast, with the export forecast unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points. Brazil's production forecast remained unchanged at 4.08 million tons; India's production was revised down by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; China's production was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. In 2025, China's total cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 million tons [7][8]. - **Strategy**: Focus on low - buying opportunities before the Spring Festival, as there is room for price increase in the long - term [9]. Protein Meal - **Market Information**: On Friday, the protein meal futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of soybean meal was 2,735 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.15% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed meal was 2,239 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day. The spot price of soybean meal in Dongguan was 3,080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Huangpu was 2,460 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Trump said that China agreed to increase the purchase of US soybeans this season from 12 million tons to 20 million tons. StoneX's latest forecast shows that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach a record high of 181 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons from the January forecast and a year - on - year increase of 13 million tons. As of January 31, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 99.6%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 0.3 percentage points higher than the five - year average; the soybean harvesting rate was 11.4%, 3.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 0.4 percentage points lower than the five - year average. From January 23 to January 30, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans was 1.82 million tons, an increase of 350,000 tons from the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 6.71 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons from the previous week; the sample oil mill's soybean meal inventory was 860,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from the previous week [11][12]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [13]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: On Friday, the oils and fats futures price fell. The closing price of the May contract of soybean oil was 8,102 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.02% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of palm oil was 9,026 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton or 0.18% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed oil was 9,144 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,650 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,080 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,940 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. It is estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production in January 2026 was 1.62 million tons, a decrease of 210,000 tons from the previous month, exports were 1.42 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from the previous month, and the inventory was 2.89 million tons, a decrease of 160,000 tons from the previous month. The US Treasury Department issued the latest guidance on biofuel tax credits, which was well - received by the market. The shipping survey agencies ITS and AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports in January increased by 14.9% and 17.9% respectively from the previous month. From January 23 to January 30, the inventory of the three major oils and fats in domestic samples decreased slightly by 60,000 tons to 1.89 million tons [15][16]. - **Strategy**: Go long after a pullback as the medium - term outlook is positive [17]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were mainly stable with slight weakness in some areas. Before the Spring Festival, the price of large - sized eggs in Heishan was not reported, the price in Xinji dropped 0.09 yuan to 2.8 yuan/jin, the price in Guantao dropped 0.07 yuan to 2.89 yuan/jin, the price in Xishui remained at 3.38 yuan/jin, and the price in Dongguan dropped 0.05 yuan to 3.23 yuan/jin. Market demand will gradually weaken, and egg prices will generally decline. Considering the limited decrease in supply and the inventory accumulation during the festival, egg prices may fall below the cost after the festival [18]. - **Strategy**: Short the near - month contract and be cautious about the far - end contract [19]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Over the weekend, domestic pig prices continued to decline. The average price in Henan dropped 0.14 yuan to 12.14 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped 0.4 yuan to 11.14 yuan/kg. The improvement in demand was limited, and the enthusiasm of farmers for selling pigs was high. The overall supply was abundant, and pig prices were under pressure. It is expected that pig prices in the north may be stronger and stable in the south today [21]. - **Strategy**: Short on rebounds in the near - term and pay attention to the support at lower levels in the long - term [22].

农产品早报 2026-02-05 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 组长、生鲜品研究员 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 王俊 周三郑州白糖期货价格小幅反弹，郑糖 5 月合约收盘价报 5210 元/吨，较上个交易日上涨 43 元/吨，或 0.83%。现货方面，广西制糖集团报价 5260-5340 元/吨，较上个交易日持平。 杨泽元 软商品、油脂油料研究员 StoneX 预计 2025/26 榨季全球食糖市场将维持供应过剩，预估过剩量为 290 万吨。印度全国糖业合作联 盟联合会(NFCSF)发布数据显示，2025/26 榨季截至 2026 年 1 月 31 日，印度食糖产量已达 1930.5 万吨， 同比增加 16.8%。据海关总署公布的数据显示，2025 年 12 月份我国进口食糖 58 万吨，同比增加 19 万 吨。2025 年我国累计进口食糖 492 万吨，同比增加 57 万吨。2025/26 榨季截至 12 月底我国累计进口食 糖 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The expectation of a reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area in the next year and the increase in the downstream industry's operating rate since November 2025 have driven up cotton prices. In the medium to long term, with the reduction in planting area and positive macro - expectations, cotton prices still have room to rise. However, due to the large short - term increase, it is necessary to wait for a correction before making long positions [2][21]. 3. Summary of Relevant Contents Driving Factors for Cotton Price Increase - The expectation of a reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area is the main driving factor for the rise of Zhengzhou cotton futures since December last year. The cotton planting subsidy policy in Xinjiang will expire in the 2025/26 season, and the new policy is expected to reduce the subsidized planting area by about 10% compared to 2025 [2][5]. - Since November 2025, the increase in the downstream industry's operating rate is also a driving factor for the rise in cotton prices. As of the week of January 16, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.6%, an increase of 8.6 percentage points year - on - year; the weaving mill operating rate was 35.2%, an increase of 10.2 percentage points year - on - year. The increase may be related to the late Spring Festival in 2026. Although domestic cotton production has increased significantly this year, the national cotton sales progress has also increased significantly year - on - year, indicating good downstream demand [6]. International Cotton Market and Import Situation - According to USDA data, the global cotton production forecast for the 2025/26 season in January is 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points from the December forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points from the previous year. The US production forecast in January is 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons from the December forecast. Brazil's production forecast remains at 4.08 million tons, India's production is adjusted down by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons, and China's production is adjusted up by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons [15]. - In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.56 million tons year - on - year. Brazil's cotton exports in December were 450,000 tons, an increase of 100,000 tons year - on - year. Exports to China in December were 146,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons year - on - year. As of the week of January 8, the US current - year cotton export sales were 80,600 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.6231 million tons, a decrease of 191,000 tons year - on - year. Exports to China were 13,600 tons that week, and the cumulative exports were 85,300 tons, a decrease of 71,200 tons year - on - year. It is expected that China's cotton imports in January will increase month - on - month, but the increase may be small [16].

Report Summary - **Report Title**: Zheng Cotton Soars and Then Declines, Planting Area Reduction Confirmed - Guoxin Futures Cotton Weekly Report - **Report Date**: January 9, 2026 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Domestic Market**: This week, Zheng Cotton soared and then declined. After the market's digestion of the reduced planting area reached its peak, the price of Zheng Cotton exceeded 15,000 yuan/ton. However, as the price rose, the pressure for long - position holders to take profits increased. After the policy expectations were realized, the market is expected to cool down and return to fundamentals. Due to the actual contraction in supply, the adjustment space for Zheng Cotton is expected to be limited, with an overall operating range of 14,400 - 15,200 yuan/ton [53]. - **International Market**: The international market was driven by the Chinese market, with prices soaring and then declining. Brazil's cumulative cotton exports in 2025 reached 3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 9%, hitting a record high. US cotton sales weakened again. The net increase in US cotton export sales in the current market year was 98,000 bales, a 27% decrease from the previous week and a 49% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The weak export data has a certain suppressing effect on the trend of US cotton. However, the high price difference between Chinese and US cotton may still support overall exports. In general, US cotton is still under short - term upward pressure and is expected to maintain a volatile trend [53]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis - **Futures Price**: Zheng Cotton soared and then declined this week, with a weekly increase of 0.62%. ICE cotton also soared and then declined, with a weekly increase of 0.58% [9]. - **Spot Price**: This week, the cotton price index rebounded. The 3128 index rose by 393 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index rose by 345 yuan/ton [14]. - **Import Situation**: In November, 120,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons. As of the second half of November, the commercial inventory of cotton was 4.6836 million tons, and the market entered an accelerated inventory accumulation stage [19][20]. - **Downstream Inventory**: In November, the yarn inventory was 26.33 days, a year - on - year decrease of 1.13 days. The grey fabric inventory was 32.34 days, a year - on - year increase of 0.69 days [28]. - **Yarn Price**: This week, yarn prices rose. The price of OEC10S yarn increased by 130 yuan/ton compared with last week, the price of C32S yarn increased by 160 yuan/ton, and the price of JC40S yarn increased by 150 yuan/ton [32]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts**: This week, the total number of Zheng Cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts increased by 198. The number of warehouse receipts was 7,189, and the number of effective forecasts was 2,248, totaling 9,437 [37]. - **Seed Cotton Acquisition**: No specific acquisition situation was described in detail, only the price data chart of Xinjiang seed cotton acquisition was presented [40][41]. - **US Cotton Exports**: As of January [the specific day is missing], the net sales of US upland cotton exports in the current year increased by 98,000 bales, and the net sales of exports in the next year were 22,500 bales [43]. - **US Weather**: The proportion of abnormally dry areas in the US was 22.8%, the proportion of moderately drought - affected areas was 24.4%, the proportion of severely drought - affected areas was 11.6%, the proportion of extremely drought - affected areas was 1.6%, and the proportion of exceptionally drought - affected areas was 0.1%. The total area in drought (D1 - D4) was 37.5% [50]. 3.2后市展望 - The domestic market is expected to cool down after the policy expectations are realized and return to fundamentals, with limited adjustment space for Zheng Cotton. - The international market is affected by China. The high export volume of Brazilian cotton and the weak export data of US cotton co - exist. US cotton is under short - term upward pressure and is expected to maintain a volatile trend [53].

Core Viewpoint - Recent cotton futures prices have shown a continuous upward trend, with the Zheng cotton main contract reaching a new high of 15,035 yuan/ton as of January 7, 2026, marking a 10% increase from December 1, 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Price Drivers - The significant rise in cotton futures is driven by two main factors: better-than-expected cotton consumption and slower-than-expected accumulation of commercial cotton inventory [1] - As of December 15, 2025, national cotton commercial inventory decreased by 16,500 tons year-on-year, while apparent consumption increased, supporting higher cotton prices [1] - Macroeconomic factors, including improved Sino-U.S. relations and reduced tariffs, are expected to benefit China's textile and apparel exports [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - There are expectations of a reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang for 2026, which could positively impact cotton prices [2] - The U.S. cotton market is experiencing significant sales pressure, with cumulative contracts at 1.4741 million tons as of December 25, 2025, significantly below the five-year average [4] - The USDA forecasts a global cotton production of 26.08 million tons for the 2025/26 season, with China's production expected to increase by 330,000 tons [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The global cotton production for the 2026/27 season is likely to remain stable or slightly decrease, with U.S. cotton production expected to maintain current levels or slightly decline due to low cotton-to-grain price ratios [5] - The recent increase in cotton prices has led to a stronger demand from downstream textile manufacturers, with retail sales in the apparel sector showing a year-on-year increase of 4% from January to November 2025 [6] - The Zheng cotton price is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term, with a potential price range of 15,000 to 16,000 yuan/ton, indicating possible market divergence as prices approach this range [7]

Sugar Market - The current spot price range for sugar from Guangxi Sugar Group is 5310 to 5410 CNY/ton, while Yunnan Sugar Group's new sugar is priced between 5140 and 5240 CNY/ton. The main processing sugar factory prices range from 5750 to 5900 CNY/ton, with prices remaining stable across the board [2][7] - In the raw sugar market, prices fell by over 2% last night, returning to a fluctuating range, with the northern hemisphere's crushing pace expected to dominate the market in the future [2][7] - Domestic spot transactions are sluggish, but there is still some purchasing demand before the Spring Festival, which may support future prices. However, due to the increase in production, the market remains cautious, making it difficult for prices to rise significantly [2][7] Cotton Market - On Tuesday, ICE cotton prices decreased by 0.08%, closing at 64.3 cents per pound, while the main contract for Zheng cotton increased by 0.52%, closing at 14560 CNY/ton. The main contract's open interest rose by 7966 contracts to 876600 contracts, and the cotton 3128B spot price index increased by 40 CNY/ton to 15280 CNY/ton [3][7] - The international market shows limited driving factors, with both macroeconomic and fundamental aspects lacking significant disturbances, leading to low-level fluctuations in U.S. cotton prices [3][7] - The domestic market for Zheng cotton shows an increase in open interest, with prices at a high level causing some market divergence. The current market trend is primarily driven by expectations of a reduction in cotton planting area for the new year, which is now largely confirmed, although official details are still pending [3][7] - Looking ahead, there are expectations for policy changes, particularly regarding the cotton target price subsidy policy, which has been stable at 18600 CNY/ton for a long time. The market anticipates adjustments to the new year's target price [3][7] - In summary, short-term adjustments in Zheng cotton prices may occur, but there is support at the bottom. Key future points of focus include whether downstream textile companies will have new replenishment needs before the Spring Festival and whether there will be macroeconomic easing measures in the first quarter of next year, along with the announcement of new cotton target price subsidy policy details around April 10 [3][7]

Sugar Market Summary - Raw sugar prices experienced a slight rebound this week, with Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume for the 2025/26 season reaching 11.53 million tons, a decrease of 1.96 million tons or 14.54% compared to the same period last year [1] - The sugar content in sugarcane was 11.40%, down 0.08% from last year, while the sugar production rate increased by 0.027% to 8.676% [1] - Domestic sugar prices have shown recovery, with Guangxi's new sugar quoted at 5,320 to 5,410 yuan per ton and Yunnan's at 5,140 to 5,260 yuan per ton [1] Domestic Market Insights - The domestic spot market has finally seen a rebound, with Guangxi prices returning above 5,300 yuan per ton, indicating a recovery in downstream purchasing [2] - The current adjustment phase has tested the bottom, and short-term expectations suggest continued fluctuations, although upward price movement may face challenges due to the increase in production [2] Cotton Market Overview - The expected reduction in cotton planting area for the new year is strong, with the Xinjiang Cotton Association indicating a structural compression in cotton planting area for 2026 [3] - The demand for cotton remains resilient, with November retail sales of clothing and textiles increasing by 3.5% year-on-year, and textile enterprises showing slight decreases in operating rates [4][5] - Cotton commercial inventory as of mid-December was 5.35 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase, while industrial inventory also saw a rise [6][7] International Market Dynamics - The overall driving force in the international market is limited, with the U.S. cotton export contract volume showing a decrease of 24.3% year-on-year [6] - The global cotton production for the 2025/26 season is expected to increase, but supply will only exceed demand by a small margin, indicating a balanced market [8] Price Expectations - The cotton price is expected to maintain an upward trend due to strong market sentiment and anticipated policy adjustments regarding cotton subsidies [8] - Short-term optimism is likely to continue, with key factors to watch including consumer performance and potential new inventory demands from textile enterprises before the Spring Festival [8]