| | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓量 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2512 | | 1631.5 | -1.11% | -120.9 | 212 | | 2566 | | | | EC2602 | | 1686.8 | -3.39% | -176.2 | 27798 | | 32483 | -158 -582 | | | EC2604 | | 1112.7 | -3.22% | 397.9 | 7161 | | 19928 | 271 | | | EC2606 | | 1290.0 | -1.28% | 220.6 | 279 | | 2305 | -30 | | | EC2608 | | 1462.4 | -1.18% | 48.2 | 216 | | 1351 | -90 | | | EC2610 | | 1041.2 | -1.20% | 469 ...

EEEEAA | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 EC2512 | | 昨日收盘价 1649.1 | 涨跌 -0.27% | 基差 -165.5 | 昨日成交量 270 | | 昨日持仓量 3731 | 持仓变动 -82 | | | EC2602 | | 1585.0 | 2.92% | -101.4 | 27304 | | 34222 | -786 | | | EC2604 | | 1090.1 | 0.65% | 393.6 | 2881 | | 19129 | 132 | | | EC2606 | | 1255.1 | 0.05% | 228.6 | 178 | | 2141 | -26 | | 期货 | EC2608 | | 1385.6 | 0.40% | 98.1 | 125 | | 1549 | -28 | | | EC2610 | | 1040.2 | -0.19% | 443.5 | 297 | | 3961 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC2512 contract is moving towards the delivery logic, with P1 around 1550 points. P2 and P3 are对标 to the second - half of December's cabin space, and the price is expected to be stable with a slight increase. - The EC2602 contract has a neutral valuation, follows the spot market in the short - term, and there is a chance for a higher price if the peak season is realized. Reasons include the late Chinese New Year, strong cargo volume on the European route this year, and the contract covering a period with a potential seasonal price peak. - The EC2604 contract is still recommended to be shorted on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2512 closed at 1633.6 with a - 0.19% change; EC2602 at 1534.2 with a 2.719% change; EC2604 at 1072.1 with a - 0.55% change; EC2606 at 1233.2 with a - 0.31% change; EC2608 at 1374.9 with a 1.30% change; EC2610 at 1032.6 with a - 0.06% change [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: For example, EC2512 - 2504 was 561.5, EC2512 - 2602 was 99.4, and EC2502 - 2604 was 462.1, with corresponding changes compared to previous days and weeks [2]. Spot Market - **Spot Indexes**: The spot price (per point) on December 1, 2025, was 1483.65, down 9.50% from the previous period. SCF on November 28, 2025, was 1404 dollars/TEU, up 2.71%; CCFI was 1449.34 points, up 1.14%; NCFI was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% [2]. - **European Route Spot Situation**: In December, the early - month price increase failed. In Week 49, the average was 2360 dollars, equivalent to 1650 points on the disk. In Week 50, MSK's opening price dropped to 2200 dollars, and the current central price is 2270 dollars, equivalent to 1580 points. Some shipping companies adjusted prices, and it is expected that shipping companies will announce price increases for January's cabin space in early December. On Tuesday, MSK's opening price for Week 51 was 2400 dollars, up 200 dollars from the previous week, equivalent to 1660 points [4]. Related News - On November 26, the mediators of the Gaza cease - fire agreed to stop violations and implement the second phase of the agreement. - On November 29, Lebanon's Hezbollah said it would retaliate against Israel for the attack on its senior commander [5].

葉运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 募 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓量 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2512 EC2602 | | 1631.1 | 1.15% 6.07% | 8.3 | 1737 4146/ | | 4501 40111 | -7/31 -28-7 | | | EC2604 | | 1471.9 1072.2 | 1.67% | 167.5 567.2 | 7369 | | 18743 | 42 | | | EC2606 | | 1215.2 | 2.11% | 424.2 | ਦੀ ਰੇ | | 2254 | 63 | | 期货 | EC2608 | | 1339.0 | 2.1 5% | 300.4 | 251 | | 1630 | -20 | | | EC2610 | | 1021.0 | 0.87% | 618.4 | ਰੇਟੇ 4 | | 3975 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Wednesday, the futures market declined significantly due to the near - end price and resumption of shipping expectations. The EC2512 contract is moving towards the delivery logic and follows the spot price, with an expected range of around 1550 - 1600 points. Contracts P2 and P3 are related to the second - half of December cabin space, and the freight rate is expected to be stable with a slight increase [3]. - The EC2602 contract has a low valuation. The key to going long is to wait for the signal of cargo volume explosion. There is no overly pessimistic expectation because the cargo volume on the European route has been good this year, and the price cut in December for inventory stocking is beneficial for the price increase in January. If the peak season is realized later, the EC2602 contract may have more upside potential [3]. - The EC2604 contract is still recommended to be shorted on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contract Data | Contract | Yesterday's Price | Change | Yesterday's Volume | Yesterday's Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2512 | 1612.9 | - 0.59% | 1493 | 5232 | - 302 | | EC2602 | 1387.7 | 0.02% | 24978 | 42968 | - 1089 | | EC2604 | 1054.6 | - 1.64% | 566 | 18701 | 703 | | EC2606 | 1190.1 | - 4.94% | 719 | 2186 | 200 | | EC2608 | 1310.8 | - 5.43% | 433 | 1650 | 32 | | EC2610 | 1012.2 | - 4.13% | 1174 | 3700 | 611 | [2] Month - spread Data | Month - spread | Previous Day | Two Days Ago | Three Days Ago | Day - on - Day Change | Week - on - Week Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2512 - 2504 | 558.3 | 550.2 | 523.6 | 8.1 | - 42.3 | | EC2512 - 2602 | 225.2 | 235.0 | 196.5 | - 9.8 | 102.0 | | EC2502 - 2604 | 333.1 | 315.2 | 327.1 | 17.9 | - 144.3 | [2] Index Data | Index | Update Frequency | Announcement Date | Unit | Current Value | Previous Value | Two Periods Ago | Current Change | Previous Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS (European Route) | Weekly | 2025/11/24 | Points | 1639.37 | 1357.67 | 1504.80 | 20.75% | - 9.78% | | SCFI (European Route) | Weekly | 2025/11/21 | USD/TEU | 1367 | 1417 | 1323 | - 3.55% | 7.11% | | CCFI | Weekly | 2025/11/21 | Points | 1432.96 | 1403.64 | 1366.85 | 2.09% | 2.69% | | NCFI | Weekly | 2025/11/21 | Points | 951.65 | 979.34 | 911.73 | - 2.83% | 7.42% | [2] Recent European Route Spot Situation - Week 49: The offline quotes of GEMINI and PA alliances are between 2300 - 2500, and OA is between 2300 - 2600, with an average of about 2400 US dollars (equivalent to about 1650 points on the futures market) [4]. - Week 50: Maersk opened at 2200 US dollars, PA dropped to 1900 - 2200, and OA remained at 2400 - 2500. The central price may be between 2200 - 2300 US dollars (1550 - 1600 points). On Thursday, YML cut the price to 1900, and ONE cut it to 2200 (with a combined volume of 2000 - 2100) [4]. Related News - On November 28, the Pakistani Foreign Ministry condemned the Israeli army for shooting and killing two Palestinians in the West Bank [5]. - On November 27, the Israeli army stated that it had attacked multiple Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon [5].

集运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/11/21 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基美 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持命量 | 持合变动 | | 期货 | EC2512 | | 1775.7 | 0.70% | -418.0 | 4067 | | 8060 | -1508 | | | EC2602 | | 1631.0 | -0.55% | -273.3 | 32775 | | 42029 | 1785 | | | EC2604 | | 1163.0 | 0.03% | 194.7 | 3097 | | 16014 | 70 | | | EC2606 | | 1381.1 | -0.07% | -23.4 | 218 | | 1575 | -7 | | | EC2608 | | 1505.0 | 1.00% | -147.3 | 92 | | 1224 | 12 | | | EC2610 | | 1109.0 | -0.09% ...

04仍建议连高空思路对待。 近期欧线报价情况: 11月下宣涨：先前船司对11月下宣涨2365-2950美金。 集运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/11/18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਵਿੱਚ | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 葛美 | 昨日成交昼 | | 昨日持会昆 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2512 | | 1792.3 | 0.13% | -434.6 | 7097 | | 12086 | -2434 | | | EC2602 | | 1726.0 | 7.54% | -368.3 | 44502 | | 388880 | 837 | | | EC2604 | | 1187.7 | 2.59% | 170.0 | 4647 | | 16182 | 564 | | | EC2606 | | 1403.9 | 1.89% | -46.2 | 3 20 | | 1621 | -3 | | | EC2608 | | 1521.1 | 2.31% | -163 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The upward movement of SCFIS has boosted the sentiment of long - position holders, and the futures market is in a state of oscillating operation under the game between long and short positions. The main contract may be in the process of bottom - building, and the focus is on the direction of spot freight rates. Tariff issues have a marginal effect, and close attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight prices [1][3]. - With the sharp rise of the spot index driving the far - month contracts, risk - preferring investors are advised to enter the 02 contract in advance and focus on the freight rate support logic in December [1]. Content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Freight Index Information - On November 3, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1504.80 points, up 24.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1329.71 points, up 4.9% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1053.62 points, down 4.24% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 911.73 points, down 5.58% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1349.1 points, down 7.14% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1495.10 points, down 3.6 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 1323 USD/TEU, down 1.6% from the previous period; the SCFI price for the US West route was 2212 USD/FEU, down 16.4% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1058.17 points, up 3.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1366.85 points, up 3.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 814.14 points, up 5.4% from the previous period [2]. Economic Data - In October, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level. The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises were stable [3]. - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's Manufacturing PMI in October was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45); the preliminary value of the Services PMI was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4); the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6). The Eurozone's Sentix Investor Confidence Index in October had a previous value of - 9.2 and a forecast value of - 8.5 [2]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in October was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2); the preliminary value of the Manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52, previous value 52); the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [3]. Futures Market Information - On November 11, the main contract 2512 closed at 1746.1, down 1.87%, with a trading volume of 32,200 lots and an open interest of 25,200 lots, a decrease of 1475 lots from the previous day [3]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin of the company for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [4]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: As the main contract retreats and the far - month contracts are strong, risk - preferring investors are advised to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range, pay attention to the spot trend, not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or lightly attempt [4]. - Long - term strategy: For each contract, it is recommended to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The overall market is fluctuating and waiting for the next driver. The valuation of EC2512 is moderately high. With multiple positive drivers such as subsequent announcements and long - term contract signings from November to December, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The valuation of EC2602 is more difficult to determine, with high uncertainty, and it is expected to mainly follow the trend of EC2512 in the next month. For EC2604, as it is a off - season contract, it maintains a narrow - range fluctuation in the current peak - season logic. Considering greater supply pressure next year, the off - season in April, and potential resumption of flights, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - **Price and Change**: EC2512 closed at 1851.7 with a 2.64% increase, EC2602 at 1592.2 with a 2.48% increase, EC2604 at 1184.4 with a 2.01% increase, EC2606 at 1400.8 with a 1.54% increase, EC2608 at 1483.5 with a 0.84% increase, and EC2610 at 1139.3 with a 0.64% increase [2] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 were 18824, 5040, 2233, 274, 102, and 176 respectively. The open interests were 29320, 18781, 14507, 1490, 1342, and 1266 respectively, with changes of - 2045, 326, - 403, - 31, - 10, and - 14 respectively [2] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads of EC2512 - 2504, EC2512 - 2602, and EC2502 - 2604 were 667.3, 259.5, and 407.8 respectively, with day - on - day changes of 24.4, 9.1, and 15.3 respectively [2] Spot Market - **Indices and Changes**: The SCHIS index on November 3, 2025, was 1208.71 points, down 7.92% from the previous period. The SCF was 1344 dollars/TEU on October 31, 2025, up 7.37% from the previous period. The CCFI was 1323.81 points on October 31, 2025, up 2.37% from the previous period. The NCFI was 965.62 points on October 31, 2025, up 17.43% from the previous period [2] Recent European Line Quotations - **Booking Situation**: Downstream customers are currently booking cabins for early November (week 45). In early November, PA's price dropped to 1700 - 1900 US dollars, GEMIN to 2100 - 2200 US dollars, and OA to 2250 US dollars, with an average of about 2050 US dollars (equivalent to 1430 points on the futures market). There was no change in freight rates on Monday [3] Related News - **Geopolitical Events**: On October 31, Israel attacked Gaza for the third consecutive night, impacting the cease - fire agreement. On November 3, the Houthi armed forces stated that they would strongly respond to any Israeli aggression [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current valuation of the 12 contract is moderately high. With subsequent price increases and the signing of long - term agreements from November to December, it is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips, waiting for a possible decline in November (if the expected decline in the second half of November fails to materialize and causes the market to fall back) [2][13] - The valuation of the 02 contract is difficult to determine, with high uncertainty. It is expected to mainly follow the trend of the 12 contract in the next month [2][13] - The 04 contract is a off - season contract, which fluctuates within a narrow range under the current peak - season logic. Given the greater supply pressure next year, it is recommended to adopt a strategy of selling on rallies [2][13] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1843.8, down 1.45%, with a basis of - 531.1. Yesterday's trading volume was 17,598, and the open interest decreased by 1,792 to 30,114 [2][13] - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1583.0, down 1.43%, with a basis of - 270.3. Yesterday's trading volume was 4,555, and the open interest increased by 343 to 16,233 [2][13] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1175.9, down 1.55%, with a basis of 136.8. Yesterday's trading volume was 1,891 [2][13] - FC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1403.3, down 1.38%, with a basis of - 90.6. Yesterday's trading volume was 96, and the open interest was 1,411 [2][13] - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1487.5, down 2.22%, with a basis of - 174.8. Yesterday's trading volume was 119, and the open interest increased by 24 to 1,324 [2][13] - FC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1132.5, down 0.63%, with a basis of 180.2. Yesterday's trading volume was 388, and the open interest increased by 150 to 1,062 [2][13] Month - spread Information - EC2512 - 2504: The previous day's value was 667.9, a decrease of 8.7 compared to the previous day [2][13] - EC2512 - 2602: The previous day's value was 260.8, a decrease of 4.2 compared to the previous day [2][13] - EC2502 - 2604: The previous day's value was 407.1, a decrease of 4.5 compared to the previous day [2][13] Index Information - "ટેવાન ટિ": Updated every Monday, announced on October 27, 2025. The current value is 1312.71 points, up 15.11% from the previous period and 10.52% from the period before the previous one [2][13] - SCFI (European Line): Updated every Friday, announced on October 24, 2025. The current value is 1246 US dollars/TEU, up 8.82% from the previous period and 7.21% from the period before the previous one [2][13] - CCFI: Updated every Friday, announced on October 24, 2025. The current value is 1293.12 points, up 1.99% from the previous period and down 1.49% from the period before the previous one [2][13] - NCFI: Updated every Friday, announced on October 24, 2025. The current value is 822.3 points, up 2.38% from the previous period and 14.96% from the period before the previous one [2][13] Market Analysis - On Wednesday, the market fluctuated and slightly declined. In the first half of November, OA and MSK had no pressure in receiving goods, and the PA alliance led the price reduction [2][13] - In the second half of November, affected by the previous congestion at European ports, 4 ships may not be able to return to Shanghai Port in time, which may lead to a tight supply - demand situation in November. It is necessary to observe whether shipping companies take actions such as blank sailings or re - allocations [2][13] - The market's neutral expectation for the freight rate in November is 2000 - 2200 US dollars (1400 - 1540 points). It is necessary to observe whether shipping companies will announce price increases for the second half of the month [2][13] Recent European Line Quotation Information - Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for early November (Week 45) [2][13] - In Week 44, the offline quotes were PA 1400, GEMINI 1600, and OA 1800 US dollars [2][13] - In November, shipping companies have announced price increases mostly in the range of 2500 - 2700 US dollars, with an average equivalent to about 1800 points on the market. MSK opened bookings at 2350 US dollars, in line with expectations. Subsequently, shipping companies lowered the prices to 1800 - 2300 US dollars, with a central range of 2000 - 2100 US dollars [2][13] News on Price Changes - On Monday, HMM reduced the price to 1900 US dollars, HPL to 2335 US dollars, ONE to 2135 US dollars, and MSC to 265 US dollars [2][13] - On Tuesday, MSK reduced the price to 2200 US dollars, OOCL to 2150 US dollars, and YML reduced the price of a single route to 1900 US dollars [2][13] - On Wednesday, MSK announced a peak - season surcharge of 300 US dollars/FEU for long - term agreements. YML reduced the price of a single route to 1850 US dollars [2][13] - On Thursday, ONE reduced the price to 1900 US dollars, HMM to 1800 US dollars. OOCL reduced the price of a single route to 2100 US dollars, and the prices of other routes were 2200 - 2300 US dollars [2][13]