Group 1: Report Overview - The report is from the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center, dated February 2, 2026 [2] Group 2: Contract Data Contract Price and Volume - EC2602: Yesterday's close was 1716.7, down 0.05%, with a basis of 142.6, volume of 453, and open interest of 2551, down 261 [2] - EC2604: Yesterday's close was 1227.0, down 1.82%, with a basis of 632.3, volume of 25237, and open interest of 35881, down 3788 [2] - EC2606: Yesterday's close was 1542.8, down 2.11%, with a basis of 316.5, volume of 5606, and open interest of 12303, up 997 [2] - EC2608: Yesterday's close was 1607.0, down 2.33%, with a basis of 252.3, volume of 694, and open interest of 1594, down 72 [2] - EC2610: Yesterday's close was 1122.5, down 2.49%, with a basis of 736.8, volume of 2674, and open interest of 8134, down 799 [2] Month - Spread Data - EC2502 - 2604: The previous day's spread was 489.7, with a daily increase of 21.9 and a weekly decrease of 36.8 [2] - EC2504 - 2606: The previous day's spread was - 315.8, with a daily increase of 10.5 and a weekly decrease of 68.4 [2] Group 3: Spot Market Data - The spot (European Line) "ટરનાટ" index on January 26, 2026 was 1859.31 points, down 4.86% from the previous period [2] - The SCFI (European Line) on January 30, 2026 was $1418/TEU, down 11.10% from the previous period [2] Group 4: Market Analysis and Recommendations Short - Term Market - Geopolitical tensions, stable Maersk February quotes, and expected March rush shipments may prevent short - term price drops [3] Near - Month Contracts - For the 04 contract, shorting should be done with caution. Watch for significant premiums. Pay attention to PA Alliance quotes and geopolitical situations [3] Far - Month Contracts - Short the 10 contract on rallies, based on the logic of off - season and tax - refund negatives. The valuations of 06 and 08 are hard to determine, and they will fluctuate widely within a reasonable range. Operate with caution under geopolitical uncertainties [3] Group 5: European Line Spot Situation - Downstream is booking February 2 (Week 6 - 7) cabins. Ships are receiving good cargo, but the pressure to attract cargo is increasing, and shipping companies need to attract cargo for ships during the Spring Festival [4] - The price center in Week 7 is $2140, equivalent to 1500 points on the futures. Maersk's Week 8 - 9 quotes are $1950 (unchanged from the previous period), and other shipping companies are also keeping their quotes unchanged for now [4] Group 6: News and Geopolitical Situation Military Exercise News - On February 1, Iranian officials said media reports about an Iranian Revolutionary Guard military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz were false, and no official statement had been issued [5] Diplomatic Negotiation News - On February 2, the US signaled a willingness to negotiate with Iran, and a meeting may be held in Turkey. However, experts believe that although both sides have a willingness to negotiate, there are serious differences, and the negotiation prospects are difficult [5][6]

1. Contract Data - EC2602 had a closing price of 1717.5, a decline of -0.09%, a basis of 141.8, a trading volume of 432, an open interest of 2812, and an open interest change of -374 [2][30] - EC2604 had a closing price of 1249.7, an increase of 1.68%, a basis of 609.6, a trading volume of 27481, an open interest of 39669, and an open interest change of -477 [2][30] - EC2606 had a closing price of 1576.0, an increase of 5.55%, a basis of 283.3, a trading volume of ୧୫32, an open interest of 11306, and an open interest change of 1704 [2][30] - EC2608 had a closing price of 1645.4, an increase of 5.42%, a basis of 213.9, a trading volume of 1154, an open interest of 1666, and an open interest change of 117 [2][30] - EC2610 had a closing price of 1151.2, an increase of 1.42%, a basis of 708.1, a trading volume of 2032, an open interest of 8933, and an open interest change of 211 [2][30] 2. Month - Spread Data - The month - spread of EC2502 - 2604 was 467.8, with a day - on - day change of -22.2 and a week - on - week change of -111.6 [2][30] - The month - spread of EC2504 - 2606 was -326.3, with a day - on - day change of -62.1 and a week - on - week change of -51.7 [2][30] 3. Spot and Index Data - The spot (European line) index on 2026/1/26 was 1859.31 points, a decline of -4.86% compared to the previous period [2][30] - The SCFI (European line) on 2026/1/23 was 1676 dollars/TEU, a decline of -4.83% compared to the previous period [2][30] 4. Market Analysis and Suggestions - Recent geopolitical tensions, stable February quotes from Maersk, and potential rush shipments and price - holding stories in March may prevent the market from falling in the short term. The current valuation is moderately high, and the upward space depends on capital behavior [3][31] - It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies. The focus of short - selling should be on the far - month contract 2610, which is more affected by the off - season and policies. Caution should be maintained for the 2604 contract unless there is a significant premium on the board [3][31] - The export tax rebate adjustment policy is negative for contracts after April. The valuations of the 06 and 08 contracts are difficult to determine, and they are currently within a reasonable range but are greatly affected by geopolitics, so cautious operation is recommended [3][31] 5. European Line Spot Situation - In Week 5, MSK's opening price was 2450 (down 300 from the previous period), PA was 2400 (special price 2200), and OA was 2500 - 2700 dollars. The central price was 2500 dollars, equivalent to 1750 points on the board [4][32] - In Week 6, MSK's opening price was 2050 (down 400 from the previous period), PA was around 2200, MSC was 2340, and OA was 2300 - 2400 dollars. The central price was 2300 dollars, equivalent to 1580 points on the board [4][32] - On Tuesday, MSK's opening price for February weeks 7 - 9 was 1950 (down 100 from the previous period), lower than market expectations [4][32] 6. Related News - On January 30, Hamas announced that the handover of governance in the Gaza Strip was fully ready [5][33] - On January 30, US President Trump said that Hamas seemed about to disarm and that a team was going to Iran [5][33]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report Core Views - For the EC2604 contract, pay attention to the spot market and actual cargo rush situation. Spot price drops may suppress the futures market, but a larger post - Chinese New Year cargo rush due to lower freight may reduce the price decline slope in March. The current valuation of EC2604 fluctuates within a reasonable range, and it is advisable to watch for potential correction opportunities, such as buying at low prices during the spot market's bottom - finding process [3] - Export tax - rebate adjustments are negative for far - month contracts, but far - month contracts are highly affected by geopolitical factors. It is generally recommended to short the EC2610 contract on rallies. Currently, the valuation of EC2610 is neutral with limited downside [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Futures Contract Data - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1707.2, down 0.16%, with a basis of 249.2, trading volume of 778, and open interest of 5106, a decrease of 469 [2] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1129.7, up 1.54%, with a basis of 826.7, trading volume of 22099, and open interest of 41299, a decrease of 512 [2] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1378.0, up 4.60%, with a basis of 578.4, trading volume of 3489, and open interest of 4057, an increase of 130 [2] - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1486.1, up 1.24%, with a basis of 470.3, trading volume of 161, and open interest of 1347, a decrease of 4 [2] - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1074.7, up 2.07%, with a basis of 881.7, trading volume of 1473, and open interest of 8347, a decrease of 205 [2] Month - spread Data - EC2502 - 2604: The value was 597.4, compared to 577.5 the previous day and 582.1 three days ago, a day - on - day decrease of 19.9 and a week - on - week increase of 61.2 [2] - EC2504 - 2606: The value was - 204.8, compared to - 248.3 the previous day and - 185.8 three days ago, a day - on - day decrease of 43.5 and a week - on - week decrease of 29.2 [2] Spot and Index Data - Spot (European route): As of 2026/1/12, the price was 1956.39, up 8.94% from the previous period and 3.05% from two periods ago [2] - SCFI (European route): As of 2026/1/16, the price was 1676 dollars/TEU, down 2.50% from the previous period [2] European Route Spot Situation - Week 4: MSK opened at 2750 (up 100 week - on - week), PA at 2400 (YML had two special offers at 2250), and OA at 2700 - 2900 dollars. The central price was 2630 dollars, equivalent to 1840 points on the futures market [4] - Week 5: MSK opened at 2450 (down 300 week - on - week), PA at 2400 (special offer at 2200), and OA at 2700 dollars. The central price was 2540 dollars, equivalent to 1780 points on the futures market [4] - Week 6 of February: MSK opened at 2000/2100 (down 400 week - on - week), YML quoted at 2400 (special offer at 2000), and CMA quoted at 2600 dollars [4] Related News - On 1/5, CMA CGM decided to divert ships on FAL 1, FAL 3, and MEX routes via the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Suez Canal due to the complex and uncertain international situation [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The 02 contract's logic deviates little. For the 04 contract, attention should be paid to the spot market and actual rush - shipping situations. Spot price decline suppresses the futures market, but as freight rates fall, the post - Chinese New Year rush - shipping scale may increase, potentially weakening the price decline slope in March. The 04 contract's valuation fluctuates widely within a reasonable range, and attention should be paid to potential correction opportunities (look for opportunities to go long at low prices during the oversold period when the spot price bottoms out). The export tax - rebate adjustment is negative for the far - month contracts, but the far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors. Overall, it is recommended to go short on the 10 contract on rallies (currently, the 10 contract's valuation is neutral with limited downward space) [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Data - For EC2602, the closing price is 1710.0, with a decline of 0.25%, a basis of 246.4, a trading volume of 1710, and an open interest of 5575 with a decrease of 864 [2] - For EC2604, the closing price is 1112.6, with a decline of 1.73%, a basis of 843.8, a trading volume of 30586, and an open interest of 41811 with a decrease of 777 [2] - For EC2606, the closing price is 1317.4, with a decline of 0.05%, a basis of 639.0, a trading volume of 2723, and an open interest of 3927 with a decrease of 273 [2] - For EC2608, the closing price is 1467.9, with an increase of 0.61%, a basis of 488.5, a trading volume of 112, and an open interest of 1351 with a decrease of 15 [2] - For EC2610, the closing price is 1052.9, with a decline of 0.11%, a basis of 903.5, a trading volume of 2144, and an open interest of 8552 with an increase of 366 [2] - The difference between EC2502 - 2604 is 597.4, with a daily increase of 15.3 and a weekly increase of 109.9; the difference between EC2504 - 2606 is - 204.8, with a daily decrease of 19.0 and a weekly decrease of 11.2 [2] Spot Index Data - The SCHIS (European Line) spot index on January 12, 2026, is 1956.39 points, with a month - on - month increase of 8.94% and a two - month - on - month increase of 3.05% [2] - The SCFI (European Line) on January 16, 2026, is 1676 dollars/TEU, with a decline of 2.50% [2] European Line Spot Situation - In Week 4, MSK's opening price is 2750 (a week - on - week increase of 100), PA is 2400 (YML has two special prices of 2250), OA is 2700 - 2900 dollars, with a central price of 2630 dollars, equivalent to 1840 points on the futures [4] - In Week 5, MSK's opening price is 2450 (a week - on - week decrease of 300), PA is 2400 (special price is 2200), OA is 2700 dollars, with a central price of 2540 dollars, equivalent to 1780 points on the futures [4] - On Tuesday, MSK's opening price for Week 6 is 2000/2100 dollars, a week - on - week decrease of 400 dollars, exceeding market expectations. YML's quote for early February is 2450 (special price is 2250), with a downward adjustment expected [4] Related News - On January 5, CMA CGM decided to divert ships on the FAL 1, FAL 3, and MEX routes via the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Suez Canal due to the complex and uncertain international situation [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 02 contract follows the delivery logic with a small deviation. The 04 contract needs attention on the spot market and actual rush - shipping situation. Spot price decline suppresses the futures market, but the potential increase in post - Chinese New Year rush - shipping may weaken the price decline slope in March. The current valuation of the 04 contract fluctuates widely within a reasonable range, and it is recommended to pay attention to possible correction opportunities. The adjustment of export tax rebates is negative for the far - month contracts, but far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors. It is generally recommended to focus on shorting the 10 contract on rallies. Currently, the valuations of the 04 and 10 contracts are neutral with limited downward space [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Contract Quotes - EC2602 closed at 1714.3 with a 0.22% increase, trading volume of 1999, and an open interest of 6439 with a decrease of 1139. EC2604 closed at 1132.2 with a 1.00% increase, trading volume of 30559, and an open interest of 41888 with a decrease of 744. EC2606 closed at 1318.0 with a 0.52% increase, trading volume of 2329, and an open interest of 4200 with an increase of 420. EC2608 closed at 1459.0 with a 0.45% decrease, trading volume of 121, and an open interest of 1366 with a decrease of 19. EC2610 closed at 1054.1 with a 0.09% decrease, trading volume of 1410, and an open interest of 8186 with an increase of 248 [2] - For the month - spread, EC2502 - 2604 was 582.1 compared to the previous day, with a day - on - day decrease of 7.4 and a week - on - week increase of 61.4. EC2504 - 2606 was - 185.8, with a day - on - day increase of 4.4 and a week - on - week increase of 28.0 [2] Spot Indexes - The SCHIS (European route) index on January 12, 2026, was 1956.39, showing an 8.94% increase from the previous period and a 3.05% increase from the period before the previous one. The SCFI (European route) index on January 16, 2026, was 1676 dollars/TEU, a 2.50% decrease from the previous period [2] European Route Spot Situation - In Week 4, MSK opened the cabin at 2750 (a 100 increase from the previous period), PA at 2400 (YML had two special offers at 2250), and OA at 2700 - 2900 dollars. The central price was 2630 dollars, equivalent to 1840 points on the futures. In Week 5, MSK opened the cabin at 2450 (a 300 decrease from the previous period), PA at 2400 (special offer at 2200), and OA at 2700 dollars. The central price was 2540 dollars, equivalent to 1780 points on the futures [3] Related News - On January 20, Iran stated that the internet would return to normal within the week, and the Iranian security forces' commander said that the government had fully restored order in all cities. Russia, Belarus, the EU, Norway, Poland, Thailand, Uzbekistan and other countries have successively stated that their leaders have been invited to join the Gaza "Peace Committee" [4]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The rush shipment may lead to short - term high freight rates. The EC2602 contract is likely to rise and hard to fall. For the EC2604 contract, the actual rush shipment situation needs attention, with short - term upward sentiment being strong but the actual scale of rush shipment may be limited. There may be opportunities to short EC2604 on rallies. The adjustment of export tax rebates is negative for far - month contracts, but due to recent geopolitical tensions, far - month contracts may still fluctuate in the short term, and the overall strategy is to short EC2610 on rallies. [3] Group 3: Market Data Summary Futures Contracts - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1729.8, up 1.40% with a basis of 66.0. The trading volume was 11327 and the open interest was 17703, a decrease of 2305. - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1144.5, down 1.62% with a basis of 651.3. The trading volume was 13495 and the open interest was 29021, an increase of 1247. - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1425.8, up 0.76% with a basis of 370.0. The trading volume was 447 and the open interest was 2505, an increase of 29. - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1525.7, down 0.11% with a basis of 270.1. The trading volume was 75 and the open interest was 1215, an increase of 15. - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1102.2, down 0.27% with a basis of 693.6. The trading volume was 777 and the open interest was 6662, an increase of 43. [2] Month - to - Month Spreads - EC2502 - 2604: The spread was 585.3, with a day - on - day increase of 42.6. - EC2504 - 2606: The spread was - 281.3, with a day - on - day decrease of 29.6. [2] Spot Market - SCEIS (European Line): Updated weekly on Mondays. On January 5, 2026, it was 1795.83 points, up 3.05% from the previous period. - SCFI (European Line): Updated weekly. On January 9, 2026, it was 1719 dollars/TEU, up 1.772% from the previous period. [2] European Line Spot Freight Rates - Week 2: MSK opened at 2500 dollars, Hamburg at 2600 dollars (+100). PA had some price drops, OA had price increases. The central price was 2860 dollars, equivalent to about 2000 points on the futures market. - Week 3: MSK's opening price increased by 100 dollars. Other alliances had small price drops. PA was at 2600 dollars (YML's one route was 2400 dollars), and PA was in the range of 2800 - 2900 dollars. The central price was 2750 dollars, equivalent to about 1930 points on the futures market. - Week 4: MSK's opening price increased by 100 dollars. Most other shipping companies had not adjusted prices for the time being. [4] Group 4: News Summary - On January 11, the Israeli military was reported to plan a new round of strikes on the Gaza Strip in March 2026, aiming to expand control. - On January 11, sources said the Israeli military had no intention to attack Iran currently, but was on defensive alert. - On January 9, the Ministry of Finance adjusted the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic and other products. From April 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate rate for battery products will be lowered from 9% to 6%, and from January 1, 2027, the VAT export tax rebate will be cancelled. [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - For contract 02, it follows the spot market, and the peak may have occurred in week 4. The subsequent price - cut rhythm is hard to judge, and the risk - reward ratio is poor at the current level, so entry is not recommended [3]. - For contract 04, a short - selling strategy on rallies is suggested. Far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors and can't have an independent market in the short term. Based on the long - term logic of expected resumption of shipping and the off - season, a short - selling strategy on rallies is also recommended for contract 10, although it has the lowest price and is most likely to be pushed up by funds when there are geopolitical reversal news [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2602 closed at 1779.1, down 5.00%; EC2604 at 1182.0, down 3.42%; EC2606 at 1422.9, up 0.42%; EC2608 at 1533.0, down 0.01%; EC2610 at 1112.0, up 0.61% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: EC2602 had a trading volume of 43604 and open interest of 21811, a decrease of 3185; EC2604 had a volume of 22083 and open interest of 26339, an increase of 2409; etc. [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: For EC2502 - 2604, the spread was 597.1, a decrease of 51.8 day - on - day and 37.8 week - on - week; for EC2504 - 2606, it was - 240.9, a decrease of 47.7 day - on - day and 31.1 week - on - week [2]. Spot Market Information - **Spot Indexes**: The spot (European Line) index was 3387.69 on 2025/1/6, down 3.59% from the previous period; the SCFI was 1690 dollars/TEU on 2025/12/26, up 10.24% [2]. - **European Line Spot Quotes**: In week 2, MSK opened at 2500 dollars, with a freight rate center of 2860 dollars, equivalent to about 2000 points on the futures. MSK opened at 2600 dollars in week 3 and 2700 dollars in week 4. CMA planned to raise the price to 3800 dollars in the second half of January but reduced the rate from 3293 to 2893 dollars between January 10 - 15. MSK reduced the Shanghai - Bremen/Gdansk freight from 2700 to 2400 dollars in week 4. HMM and YML announced a rate of 2800 dollars in the second half of January, and MSC also quoted 2800 dollars [4]. Related News On 1/7, Hamas was reshaping its rule in the Gaza ruins, challenging Trump's peace plan. Despite being besieged, Hamas was trying to restore pre - war governance, and it was in the process of reorganizing its armed forces and selecting new political leaders [5].