（来源：吴说） 吴说获悉，据 Coinbase Institutional《2026 Crypto Market Outlook》，2025 年加密衍生品交易规模明显扩 大，去中心化平台成为主要驱动力，DEX 永续合约月交易量已超过 1.2 万亿美元，Hyperliquid 仍占据 较大市场份额；在山寨币现货行情低迷的情况下，部分资金转向高杠杆永续合约，年中纯投机性敞口一 度接近 10%，并在 10 月清算事件后回落。与此同时，永续合约正由单一交易工具转向 DeFi 中可组合 的基础金融原语，并逐步与借贷等协议结合，同时向股票类永续合约延伸，成为连接加密市场与传统资 产的重要衍生品形式。 ...

Group 1: Current State of Crypto Investment - Pantera Capital partners discussed the current state of crypto investment, highlighting a record total funding of $34 billion this year, while transaction numbers have decreased by nearly half compared to 2021 and 2022 [1][2] - The decline in transaction volume is attributed to a shift from speculative investments in altcoins to more institutional and professional funding sources, leading to higher quality and larger individual investments [1][2] - The emergence of clearer exit strategies, such as Circle's IPO, has provided investors with a more defined path for realizing returns on their investments [2] Group 2: Digital Asset Trusts (DATs) - The introduction of Digital Asset Trusts (DATs) reflects a maturation in the market's understanding of digital assets, transitioning from simple speculation to active management aimed at generating returns [3][4] - The cooling interest in DATs indicates a shift towards valuing the execution capabilities of management teams, suggesting a return to rational investment practices [4] - The future of DATs may involve integration into project foundations, allowing for more professional asset management tools [4] Group 3: Future Investment Trends - Key areas for future investment include tokenization and zero-knowledge proof (ZK-TLS) technology, which are seen as long-term trends with significant potential for innovation and efficiency [5] - Tokenization is viewed as a transformative process that can create new financial products and risk management models, while ZK-TLS technology addresses data integrity issues in blockchain applications [5] - The rise of stablecoins is identified as a critical application in the tokenization space, facilitating global payments and enhancing accessibility to crypto markets [5] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Predictions - The discussion on public chains indicates that while the frenzy of new Layer 1 (L1) chains may subside, existing chains will continue to thrive based on their communities and ecosystems [10][12] - The debate on token lock-up periods emphasizes the need for alignment between founders and investors, with a consensus that a reasonable lock-up period is essential for project development [11] - The potential for privacy as a marketable feature is contested, with differing views on its value proposition in the context of institutional needs versus consumer expectations [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - Coinbase is expanding its platform to include stock trading, perpetual contracts, and various product features in addition to its existing cryptocurrency trading offerings [1] Group 1: Platform Expansion - Coinbase announced the addition of stock trading and perpetual contracts to its existing cryptocurrency trading platform [1] - The company plans to enhance its futures and perpetual contract offerings [1] - Integration of Solana DEX aggregator Jupiter is planned to support on-chain exchanges of Solana ecosystem tokens in the main application within the coming weeks [1] Group 2: New Services and Tools - Coinbase is launching Coinbase Business aimed at startups and small to medium-sized enterprises [1] - The company introduced an AI-based wealth management tool called Coinbase Advisor [1] Group 3: Asset Structure and Tokenization - Coinbase will advance retail access to tokenized stocks and other real-world assets (RWA) through a new initiative called Coinbase Tokenize [1] - Further details regarding the technical pathways and regulatory arrangements for this initiative are yet to be disclosed [1]

Gemini 总裁 Cameron Winklevoss 表示："预测市场有可能与传统资本市场一样大，甚至更大。CFTC代 理主席Caroline Pham 理解这一愿景及其重要性。与她的前任不同，代理主席 Pham 将 CFTC 定位为一个 支持商业、支持创新的监管机构，这将使美国在这些新兴且令人兴奋的市场中保持领先地位。" Kalshi和 Polymarket等平台均是预测市场的先行者。同样提供加密货币交易的 Robinhood Markets (HOOD.US)也拥有一个预测市场中心。 智通财经APP获悉，加密货币交易所 Gemini Space Station (GEMI.US) 的股票在周三夜盘交易中飙升近 13%，此前其衍生品交易部门Titan获得了美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)颁发的指定合约市场(DCM) 许可证，可以开始向美国客户提供预测市场服务。Gemini Titan计划通过提供事件合约进入预测市场领 域，这些合约包含关于未来事件的是非题，涵盖体育赛事到经济新闻等各个方面。 该公司表示，美国客户很快就能在其网页界面上交易事件合约，移动应用程序也将提供相关服务。作为 Gemini努力为客 ...

12月8日，比特币近期的深度回调让市场情绪急速转弱，但 NCE平台认为，这种情绪面主导的行情正在 与基本面出现显著背离，反而为12月提供了潜在的反转契机。K33 Research 的分析同样显示，尽管市场 恐惧正在加速释放，关键技术区间、杠杆结构和资金定位都指向价格正在接近周期底部，而非新一轮大 幅下跌的开始。NCE平台表示，从历史经验与结构性数据来看，剧烈调整通常伴随着过度悲观，而这正 是机会孕育的阶段。 比特币在经历自上一轮熊市以来最大幅度的修正后，价格一度下探至约 90，680 美元。这一过程中，现 货比特币 ETF 从长期净买入转为 11 月的阶段性净卖出，成为压制价格的关键力量。同时，CME 的期 货交易量降至多年低位，传统机构表现趋于谨慎，价格相对股票资产的疲弱使比特币与纳斯达克的比值 达到自 2024 年末以来的最低水平。尽管如此，NCE平台认为，这些因素多具有短期扰动属性，并非趋 势性恶化的证据。尤其在永续合约市场中，杠杆使用率处于低位，这意味着市场并未出现系统性的过 热，反而体现了谨慎但稳健的持仓结构。 K33 Research 强调，市场正在对远期风险做过度反应，同时忽视了近端的强韧信号。 ...

Core Viewpoint - South Korea is experiencing a nationwide cryptocurrency trading frenzy, with nearly one-third of its population participating in various exchanges, making it the second-largest cryptocurrency trading country globally [1][6]. Group 1: Participation and Demographics - Approximately 56% of cryptocurrency traders in South Korea are in their 30s and 40s [1]. - 66% of users hold less than 500,000 KRW (approximately 2,419 RMB), indicating a significant presence of retail investors rather than institutional ones [3]. - As of the end of last year, there were 775,000 cryptocurrency users aged 60 and above in South Korea [10]. Group 2: Cultural Phenomenon - Cryptocurrency trading has become a public and entertainment-driven activity, with young people sharing their trading experiences on social media and even live-streaming their trading sessions [3][5][14]. - The phenomenon of "e-sports cryptocurrency trading" has emerged, where teams compete in trading contests using real funds [18][20]. - The blending of cryptocurrency trading with elements of mysticism and fortune-telling is prevalent, with some individuals using spiritual interpretations to predict market movements [12]. Group 3: Economic Motivations - A significant portion of the population views cryptocurrency investment as a means to secure retirement funds, with 40% of respondents in a survey indicating this motivation [24]. - Many young people are entering the cryptocurrency market as a last resort for upward mobility, feeling that traditional paths to success are blocked [26][30]. - The widening wealth gap in South Korea, where the asset disparity between the top 20% and the bottom 40% of households has increased from 3.7 times to 4.7 times, drives younger generations to seek alternative investment opportunities [28]. Group 4: Debt and Risk - South Korea has the highest household debt globally, with total household debt reaching 2,246 trillion KRW in 2024, leading many young individuals to engage in "debt investment" [31][33]. - The cultural phenomenon of "debt investment" is prevalent, where young people borrow money to invest in cryptocurrencies, hoping for high returns despite the risks involved [35][37]. - The recent rise in the stock market has also led to an increase in borrowing for stock trading, reflecting a broader trend of high-risk investment behavior among the youth [37].

Project Overview - Metamask officially launched a perpetual contract trading activity, encouraging users to participate in "transaction mining" to earn points [1][2] - The activity offers a clear path for users to potentially receive a Metamask airdrop, and also a $Linea airdrop as an interim reward [2] Participation Guide - Users can download or update to the latest version (v7.57.0) of the MetaMask mobile app and enter the "Rewards" section to claim an initial 250 points [3][4] - Entering the referral code NGDG0G grants an additional 250 points, equivalent to avoiding $40,000 in trading volume [4][7] - Users can deposit USDC (preferably via Arbitrum for faster transactions) and start trading perpetual contracts [4] Point Accumulation - Spot trading earns 10 points per $800 traded, while contract trading earns 10 points per $100 traded, making contract trading more efficient for point accumulation [4] - Using older wallets with prior Metamask swap or cross-chain activity can yield loyalty rewards, potentially accumulating up to 50,000 points [6] Rewards and Strategy - Achieving 1,000 points by the end of the season (86 days) may qualify users for $Linea tokens [6] - High point totals can reduce transaction fees, suggesting a strategy of focusing on high scores with a main account and lower scores with smaller accounts [6]

Core Insights - Hyperliquid, a decentralized exchange with around 11 employees and no external investors, has rapidly emerged as a major player in the cryptocurrency market, achieving a daily trading volume exceeding $13 billion and an annualized revenue of over $1 billion [1][2] - The platform's unique model and significant market impact have made it a focal point of controversy within the crypto space, especially following its handling of over $10 billion in forced liquidation trades during a recent market downturn [1][6] - Hyperliquid's founder, Jeff Yan, has built the platform without traditional venture capital backing, opting instead for a self-sustaining model through the issuance of its HYPE token, which has seen its price surge from $3.90 to $38 since its launch [4][5] Company Overview - Hyperliquid was founded by Jeff Yan, a Harvard graduate with a strong technical background, who aims to create a decentralized platform where users can self-custody their assets [3] - The platform operates without a board of directors, allowing Yan to focus solely on its mission without external pressures [3] Token Economics - Hyperliquid has rejected traditional venture capital funding, instead issuing its HYPE token, which constitutes 31% of its total supply, distributed to users based on their trading volume [4] - The HYPE token has become one of the most successful token launches in history, with a market capitalization of approximately $10 billion [5] Market Dynamics - The platform's appeal lies in its provision of anonymity and high leverage, primarily through perpetual contracts, which are not available on compliant platforms in the U.S. [6] - Hyperliquid's operations in a largely unregulated environment raise concerns about user recourse, especially highlighted during significant market events [6] Future Aspirations - Jeff Yan envisions Hyperliquid as a "universal exchange" that will accommodate a wide range of financial products beyond cryptocurrencies, including traditional stocks and indices [7] - Recent developments indicate that Hyperliquid is beginning to attract interest from traditional financial markets, with new products being launched on the platform [7]

Core Viewpoint - Hyperliquid, a decentralized exchange with only 11 employees, has rapidly become a major player in the cryptocurrency market, achieving a daily trading volume exceeding $13 billion, driven by its anonymity and high leverage features [1][3][4] Group 1: Company Overview - Hyperliquid operates without a board of directors or external investors, relying solely on self-funding and has generated over $1 billion in annualized revenue [3][4] - The platform has gained significant attention due to its handling of over $10 billion in forced liquidations during a recent market crash, highlighting its impact on the cryptocurrency ecosystem [3][8] Group 2: Founder and Team - The founder, Jeff Yan, has a strong technical background and a vision for a decentralized platform where users can manage their own assets, inspired by the collapse of FTX [5] - The team is composed of highly skilled individuals from prestigious institutions, operating under a unique structure that grants Yan significant autonomy [5] Group 3: Token Economics - Hyperliquid has rejected traditional venture capital funding, instead opting to issue its own HYPE token, which has seen its price surge from $3.90 to $38, resulting in a market capitalization of approximately $10 billion [6] - The platform employs a strategy of distributing 31% of its total token supply to users based on their trading volume, successfully attracting a large user base [6] Group 4: Trading Features and Controversies - The platform's appeal lies in its provision of anonymity and high leverage, primarily through perpetual contracts, which are not available on compliant platforms in the U.S. [7] - Recent market volatility raised concerns about potential insider trading, as two anonymous accounts made significant short bets just before a major market event [3][7][8] Group 5: Future Aspirations - Jeff Yan envisions Hyperliquid as a "universal exchange" that will facilitate trading across various financial products, not limited to cryptocurrencies [9] - The platform is already beginning to attract traditional financial markets, with new products being launched, such as perpetual contracts for stock indices [9]

Core Insights - Hyperliquid, a decentralized exchange with around 11 employees and no external investors, has rapidly emerged as a major player in the cryptocurrency market, achieving a daily trading volume exceeding $13 billion and an annualized revenue of over $1 billion [1][2] - The platform gained attention during a recent market downturn, processing over $10 billion in forced liquidation trades, raising concerns about potential insider trading due to coincidental large short positions taken just before significant market movements [1][6] Company Overview - Founded by Jeff Yan, a Harvard graduate with a strong technical background, Hyperliquid operates without a board of directors or external investors, allowing for focused decision-making and innovation [3][4] - The platform has rejected traditional venture capital funding, instead opting to self-fund through the issuance of its HYPE token, which has seen its price surge from $3.90 to $38, resulting in a market capitalization of approximately $10 billion [4][6] Trading Features - Hyperliquid's appeal lies in its provision of anonymity and high leverage, primarily through perpetual contracts, which are not available on compliant platforms in the U.S. [6] - The platform's structure allows it to operate without user identity verification, attracting traders seeking privacy [6] Market Impact - The recent market volatility highlighted the risks associated with high leverage, as the cryptocurrency sector experienced its largest liquidation event, totaling at least $19 billion, with Hyperliquid accounting for over $10 billion of that amount [6] - The lack of regulation and limited recourse for users in the event of forced liquidations raises concerns about the platform's operational risks [6] Future Aspirations - Jeff Yan envisions Hyperliquid evolving into a comprehensive trading platform that accommodates various financial products beyond cryptocurrencies, aiming to become a "universal exchange" [7] - Recent developments include the introduction of perpetual contracts for traditional financial instruments, indicating a shift towards integrating traditional finance with cryptocurrency trading [7]