1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being volatile, and an intraday trend of being volatile and slightly strong [1][5] - Due to improved macro factors and enhanced geopolitical sentiment in the oil market, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly strong trend on Thursday [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Time - cycle Analysis - **Short - term**: The short - term trend of the crude oil 2509 contract is volatile [1] - **Medium - term**: The medium - term trend of the crude oil 2509 contract is volatile [1] - **Intraday**: The intraday trend of the crude oil 2509 contract is volatile and slightly strong [1][5] 3.2 Price and Market Performance - On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed slightly up 1.66% to 532.5 yuan per barrel [5] 3.3 Driving Logic - **Macro Factors**: This week, China and the US held the third round of economic and trade talks in Sweden. According to the consensus of both sides, they will continue to promote the extension of the 24% part of the suspended reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's counter - measures as scheduled. The risk appetite of the commodity market has recovered under the improved macro factors [5] - **Geopolitical Factors**: US President Trump declared his disappointment with Russian President Putin and will shorten the deadline given to Putin, which has enhanced the geopolitical sentiment in the oil market [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory but bullish respectively [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price Movement and View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of crude oil 2509 are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory but bullish respectively, with a reference view of bullish operation [1]. - On Tuesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed up 2.49% to 527.5 yuan/barrel, and it is expected to maintain an oscillatory but bullish trend on Wednesday [5]. Core Logic - The macro - atmosphere is bullish, with the third round of Sino - US economic and trade talks in Sweden. According to the consensus, the 24% suspended reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's counter - measures will be extended as scheduled, improving the macro - factor and boosting the risk appetite in the commodity market [5]. - US President Trump's disappointment with Russian President Putin and shortening of the deadline for Putin have enhanced the geopolitical sentiment in the oil market [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract will maintain a volatile and slightly bullish trend. The geopolitical risks and improved macro - factors have led to a recovery in risk appetite in the commodity market, causing the oil price to jump. The domestic crude oil closed up 2.06% to 515.9 yuan/barrel on the night session of Monday this week, and it is expected to remain volatile and slightly bullish on Tuesday [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs A. Time - based Viewpoints - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2509 is volatile [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2509 is volatile, and the medium - term view of crude oil (SC) is also volatile [1][5]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2509 is volatile and slightly bullish, and the intraday view of crude oil (SC) is also volatile and slightly bullish [1][5]. B. Core Logic - Geopolitical risks have emerged, and the geopolitical factor is that the US President Trump's remarks about being disappointed with Russian President Putin and shortening the deadline became the focus of the crude oil futures market, causing the oil price to jump [1][5]. - Macro - factors have improved. The US and Europe reached a trade agreement last weekend, and China and the US will hold an economic and trade meeting in Sweden at the end of this month, which led to a recovery in risk appetite in the commodity market [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Report's Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to maintain a moderately strong and volatile trend. In the short - term, it shows a moderately strong trend; in the medium - term, it is in a volatile state; and on the day, it also presents a moderately strong trend. The main reason is that under the improved macro - factors and the support of the continuous rebound of domestic coal futures prices, the bullish sentiment outweighs the weak supply - demand structure of methanol [1][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Trend - The methanol 2509 contract is moderately strong in the short - term, volatile in the medium - term, and moderately strong on the day, with an overall view of a moderately strong operation [1][5]. - On Thursday night, domestic methanol futures maintained a moderately strong and volatile trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 1.180% to 2494 yuan/ton, and it is expected to maintain this trend on Friday [5]. Driving Logic - Recently, the US and Japan reached a trade agreement, China and the US will hold an economic and trade meeting in Sweden from July 27th to 30th, and there are rumors that Europe and the US will also reach a tariff agreement. The risk appetite in the commodity market has significantly increased under the improved macro - factors [5]. - The continuous rebound of domestic coal futures prices supports the methanol market, overshadowing the weak supply - demand structure of methanol [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views being oscillatory and strong [1][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On Thursday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract maintained an oscillatory and strong trend, with the futures price rising 1.75% to 15405 yuan/ton [5] - **Driving Factors**: The improvement of macro factors such as trade agreements between the US and Japan, upcoming China - US economic and trade meetings, and rumored EU - US tariff agreements have increased the risk appetite in the commodity market. The military conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has raised concerns about supply disruptions in Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On Thursday night, the synthetic rubber futures 2509 contract maintained an oscillatory and strong trend, with the futures price rising 1.91% to 12285 yuan/ton [7] - **Driving Factors**: The improvement of macro factors has increased the risk appetite in the commodity market. The stabilization and strengthening of crude oil futures prices, along with the joint rise of Shanghai rubber and standard rubber futures, have led to the resonance of positive factors [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory - bullish respectively. The improvement of macro factors leads to a bullish trend, and although some major oil - producing countries plan to increase production in August, the negative impact is gradually digested, and the future space for further expansion of production is limited [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Trend - The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract slightly rose 0.56% to 507.1 yuan/barrel in the night session on Thursday, and is expected to maintain an oscillatory - bullish trend on Friday [5]. 3.2 Time - cycle Views - Short - term (within one week): The trend of crude oil 2509 is oscillatory [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The trend of crude oil 2509 is oscillatory [1]. - Intraday: The trend of crude oil 2509 is oscillatory - bullish [1][5]. 3.3 Core Logic - Macro factors have improved. The US and Japan reached a trade agreement, China and the US will hold an economic and trade meeting in Sweden from July 27th to 30th, and there are rumors that Europe and the US will also reach a tariff agreement, which has significantly increased the risk appetite of the commodity market [5]. - Although 8 major oil - producing countries in OPEC and non - OPEC decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, the negative impact of the production increase is gradually digested, and the future space for further expansion of production is limited as the original production - increase plan of the oil - producing countries is gradually realized [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to run strongly, showing a short - term, medium - term and intraday trend of being volatile, with an intraday bias towards strength [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price and Trend - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 closed slightly up 0.42% to 506.0 yuan/barrel on Wednesday night, and is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend on Thursday [5]. Core Logic - Macro factors have improved. The US and Japan reached a trade agreement, China and the US will hold economic and trade meetings in Sweden from July 27th to 30th, and there are rumors that Europe and the US will reach a tariff agreement, which has increased the risk appetite in the commodity market [5]. - Although 8 major oil - producing countries in OPEC and non - OPEC decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, as the negative impact of the production increase is gradually digested and the original production increase plan is gradually realized, the room for further production expansion is limited in the future [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views all being "oscillating and bullish" [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Change**: On Wednesday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract maintained an oscillating consolidation trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.43% to 14,950 yuan/ton [5]. - **Core Logic**: Recent trade agreements between the US and Japan, upcoming China - US economic and trade meetings from July 27th to 30th in Sweden, and rumors of a tariff agreement between Europe and the US have improved macro factors. This has led to a significant increase in the risk appetite of the commodity market. Although the domestic and foreign rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season with large supply pressure, the overall situation is covered by a bullish atmosphere. It is expected that on Thursday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract will maintain an oscillating and bullish trend [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Change**: On Wednesday night, the synthetic rubber futures 2509 contract maintained an oscillating consolidation trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.58% to 11,930 yuan/ton [7]. - **Core Logic**: Similar to Shanghai rubber, the improvement of macro factors has led to an increase in the risk appetite of the commodity market. Supported by a bullish atmosphere, it is expected that on Thursday, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2509 contract will maintain an oscillating and bullish trend [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report The report predicts that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain a volatile and bullish trend on Thursday. In the context of improved macro - factors, the risk appetite in the commodity market has significantly increased. The continuous rebound of domestic coal futures prices offsets the weak supply - demand structure of methanol, leading to a volatile and bullish trend in domestic methanol futures on Wednesday night, with the futures price rising 1.60% to 2469 yuan/ton [5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog Methanol Futures Outlook - Short - term view of methanol 2509: Volatile and bullish [1] - Medium - term view of methanol 2509: Volatile [1] - Intraday view of methanol: Volatile and bullish; medium - term view: Volatile; reference view: Bullish operation [5] Price and Driving Logic - On Wednesday night, domestic methanol futures maintained a volatile and bullish trend, with the futures price rising 1.60% to 2469 yuan/ton. The driving factors include improved macro - factors such as trade agreements between the US, Japan, Europe, and China's upcoming economic and trade meetings, and the continuous rebound of domestic coal futures prices [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core View of the Report - With the improvement of macro - factors, the enhancement of cost support from the improvement of the crude oil supply - demand structure, and the fact that asphalt demand is stronger than supply with inventory depletion, it is expected that the domestic asphalt futures 2509 contract will maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern [2][3][5]. Summary by Related Content Macro - factor Impact - The US House of Representatives passed the stablecoin bill, which may alleviate the US debt crisis and strengthen the global dominance of the US dollar. Meanwhile, China's "anti - involution" policy has led to a significant rise in the black and building materials commodity sectors, creating an optimistic macro - atmosphere for the domestic commodity futures market [2]. Crude Oil Market Situation - The global crude oil market shows a situation of strong supply and demand. OPEC + will increase production in August, with an expected daily increase of 548,000 barrels, and may consider another increase of about 548,000 barrels per day in September, but the subsequent increase is expected to decline. Currently, it is the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere, and inventory is decreasing. As of July 11, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3.859 million barrels week - on - week, and the refinery operating rate was at a high level of 93.9% [3]. Asphalt Supply and Demand - Due to the improvement of the comprehensive profit of asphalt production in domestic refineries in mid - July, the refinery operating rate has slightly increased. As of the week of July 18, the domestic asphalt device maintenance volume decreased by 1.4% week - on - week, and the total weekly output increased slightly by 0.6 tons. The downstream demand is in the peak season, with the sample shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises increasing by 4.0% week - on - week. The asphalt social inventory has slightly decreased, with the sample factory inventory decreasing by 4.1% week - on - week and the sample social inventory decreasing by 33.6% compared with the same period last year [4].