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银河期货航运日报-20250922
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 13:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot container shipping freight rate remains weak, but concerns about the passage of China - Europe freight trains and the expectation of post - holiday price increases still exist, causing the EC futures market to strengthen slightly. The decline rate of spot freight rates is expected to slow down after the holiday. For dry bulk shipping, the market showed a slight increase last week with different trends among ship types. The oil tanker market is generally improving, with the crude oil and refined oil markets remaining stable [5][19][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Container Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Line) Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Performance**: On September 22, 2025, the EC2512 closed at 1653.9 points, up 1.71% from the previous day. The SCFI European Line on September 19 was $1052/TEU, down 8.84% month - on - month. The latest SCFIS European Line released after the market on the 22nd was 1254.92 points, down 12.87% month - on - month [5]. - **Logic Analysis**: Shipping companies continue to lower spot prices. The freight rate center in late September dropped to around $1300 - 1600/FEU. The demand side has seen a decline in peak - season cargo volume, and the loading rate of major shipping companies has decreased. The supply side shows that the average weekly capacity in September, October, and November 2025 is 281,800/249,700/285,900 TEU respectively. The blank - sailing rate in October is about 15.56%. Attention should be paid to the subsequent tariff policy and the reopening of the Polish border [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to stop losses at low prices for short positions in EC2510 recently, and adopt a long - at - low strategy for the EC2512 contract. For arbitrage, conduct rolling operations at low prices for the 10 - 12 reverse spread and enter the market at low prices for the 2 - 4 positive spread [7][8]. Industry News - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 8.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 91.9%. In December, the probability of unchanged rates is 1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 18.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 80.5% [9]. - India's Minister of Commerce and Industry will visit the US to reach a "mutually beneficial" trade agreement, indicating a relaxation of tensions between the two countries [9]. - Shipping companies warn that the IMO's net - zero emission rules may bring huge costs to the industry, with an annual cost of about $20 - 30 billion by 2030 and over $300 billion by 2035 if the target is missed by 10% [10]. - Italian unions plan strikes and protests on September 19 and 22, which will disrupt the country's transportation and logistics [11]. - Israel has deployed a third division to the Gaza Strip, and Australia, Canada, and the UK have recognized the State of Palestine [12]. Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - **Freight Index**: The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell slightly on Friday but rose 3.6% week - on - week. The Capesize index rose to a new high since July 29, while the Panamax index dropped to a new low since September 5 [16]. - **Spot Freight Rate**: On September 19, the freight rate for the Brazil - Qingdao iron ore route was $24.77/ton, up 1.02% month - on - month, and the West Australia - Qingdao route was $10.94/ton, down 0.14% month - on - month. Weekly data shows that the freight rates of some coal and bauxite routes have increased [17]. - **Shipping Data**: From September 15 - 21, the global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 248,300 tons. Brazil's soybean, soybean meal, and corn exports in September are expected to increase [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Capesize market has good transportation demand and rising freight rates, while the Panamax market has reduced cargo volume and falling freight rates. The large - ship market may see a decline in cargo volume from mid - October, and the medium - ship market is under pressure due to weak demand [19][20]. Industry News - The Simandou iron ore project has started the first - batch mining operations [21]. - Brazil is expected to increase its soybean planting area and production in the 2025/26 season [21]. - India and the US are seeking a "mutually beneficial" trade agreement [21]. Oil Tanker Transportation Market Analysis and Outlook - **Freight Rate**: On September 19, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was 1143, down 0.35% month - on - month and up 30.48% year - on - year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was 618, down 0.48% month - on - month and up 3.34% year - on - year. The oil tanker market is generally stable, with the Suez - type ships popular in the crude oil market and regional differences in the refined oil market [23]. Industry News - Trump pressures European countries to stop buying Russian oil [24]. - Although there are concerns about oversupply and weak demand, geopolitical risks support international oil prices. The domestic refined oil price adjustment may be stranded [24].
银河期货航运日报-20250903
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 13:57
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping market is in a weak state, with spot prices in a downward channel and the overall freight rate center expected to decline in the second half of the year due to tariff pressure. The dry bulk shipping market shows mixed performance among different ship - types, with large - ship market lacking upward momentum and medium - ship market expected to be range - bound. The oil tanker transportation market remains stable overall, with different performances among different ship - types and potential price increases in some segments [5][6][18][23]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Container Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Line) Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Performance**: On September 3, 2025, EC2510 closed at 1323 points, down 1.32% from the previous day. The SCFI European Line reported $1481/TEU on August 29, down 11.21% month - on - month, and the latest SCFIS European Line reported 1773.6 points on Monday after the market, down 10.9% month - on - month. The spot market is in a rapid decline, and the loading rate continues to fall [5]. - **Fundamental Factors**: In the second half of the year, export pressure is greater than in the first half due to tariffs. The loading rate of shipping companies in September continues to decline, and the freight rate center further drops. The US imposed reciprocal tariffs on August 1, increasing trade pressure [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be weakly volatile. There is an expectation of downward revision of the valuation center in October, but attention should be paid to the situation of empty sailings in October. For arbitrage, conduct rolling operations on the 10 - 12 reverse spread at low prices [7][8]. Industry News - Trump will hold an emergency meeting on tariff rulings on Wednesday, and may appeal to the Supreme Court. If the tariff appeal is rejected, tariffs may be withdrawn [10]. - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in August was 48.7, lower than the expected 49 [11]. - The EU is considering postponing the schedule for imposing a unified tax on aviation and shipping fuel by 10 years [11]. - There are military actions in the Red Sea area, and the Houthi armed forces launched attacks on Israeli - related ships [12][13]. Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index (BDI) fell to a more than one - week low on September 2, down 1.88% to 1986 points. Freight rates for all ship - types declined. The freight rates of Cape - size and Panamax ships decreased [15]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: On September 2, the freight rate of the Cape - size ship iron ore route from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was $24.27/ton, down 0.82% month - on - month, and from Western Australia to Qingdao was $10.11/ton, down 1.51% month - on - month [16]. - **Shipping Data**: From August 25 to 31, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume was 3556.8 million tons, an increase of 241.0 million tons month - on - month. The expected soybean export volume from Brazil from August 24 to 30 was 163.07 million tons, a decrease from the previous week [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: The activity of the two major markets for Cape - size ships was low, and the freight rates declined slightly. The Panamax ship market performed averagely, with an increase in available capacity and a slight decline in freight rates. The freight rates of large - ships are expected to be range - bound in the near term, and may be supported by the improvement of iron ore shipping volume in late September. The medium - ship market is expected to be range - bound in the short term, with relatively stable demand for South American grain transportation and weak coal demand [18]. Industry News - From August 25 to 31, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1248.7 million tons, an increase of 48.2 million tons month - on - month, but still at a relatively low level [19]. - India's power generation increased by 4% year - on - year in August, and coal - fired power generation increased year - on - year for the first time in the past five months [19]. - The price of Supramax bulk carriers is rising due to market recovery and purchases by Chinese shipowners [19]. - From January to July, European fertilizer imports increased by 12% year - on - year, and Chinese suppliers have become the largest alternative suppliers in the EU [20]. Oil Tanker Transportation Market Analysis and Outlook - **Market Performance**: On September 2, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was 1041, up 0.19% month - on - month and 20.21% year - on - year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was 629, up 0.32% month - on - month and 8.26% year - on - year [23]. - **Market Situation**: The oil tanker transportation market remains stable overall. The crude oil market has declined after the previous rise, and the demand for some routes has slowed down, but the medium - sized oil tanker market performs strongly. The performance of different ship - types in the refined oil market is differentiated, and the freight rates of some ship - types may further increase [23]. Industry News - As of the week ending September 3, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE decreased by 150.3 million barrels to 1450.6 million barrels [24]. - Due to factors such as the European situation and US tariff policies, the domestic refined oil retail price limit is likely to increase on September 9, which will boost the domestic market sentiment. Diesel demand is expected to improve, while gasoline demand support is insufficient [25].
银河期货航运日报-20250821
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 13:34
Group 1: Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations for Container Shipping - The shipping companies have released the freight rates for the first half of September, and the spot prices in the off - season continue to decline. On August 21, EC2510 closed at 1325 points, down 2.21% from the previous day. The SCFI European line reported on August 15 was $1820/TEU, down 7.2% month - on - month. The second - phase settlement index of EC2508 released after the market on Monday was 2180.17 points, down 2.5% month - on - month, slightly exceeding market expectations due to some ship delays. It is expected that the decline of SCFIS will widen in the future. Under the pressure of tariffs in the second half of the year, the support for off - season freight rates is expected to weaken, and competition among shipping companies is expected to intensify compared with the first half of the year [4]. - In terms of spot freight rates, the current decline in cargo volume and sufficient shipping capacity supply have accelerated the decline of spot freight rates, and the end - of - month center is approaching below 2500. The demand side has seen a decline in peak - season cargo volume, and the impact of tariff policies on the shipping rhythm needs to be noted this year. The supply side shows that the monthly average weekly shipping capacity from Shanghai to Northern Europe in August, September, and October 2025 is 303,100/295,900/272,800 TEU respectively. The overall shipping capacity has slightly decreased compared with the previous week's schedule. The 08 contract's valuation has been slightly revised upwards due to ship delays and skipped containers, and the impact of ship delays and skipped containers on the third - phase index will be reduced [5]. - Trading strategies: Unilateral trading should be weak and volatile; for arbitrage, conduct rolling operations on the 10 - 12 reverse spread at low levels [6][7]. Group 2: Industry News for Container Shipping - Eurozone's July CPI annual rate final value is 2%, in line with expectations; the core CPI annual rate final value is 2.4%, in line with expectations; the CPI monthly rate final value is 0%, in line with expectations [9]. - The US Treasury Secretary said that the US and China had a "very good dialogue" on economic and trade issues, and he expects another meeting before November [9]. - The Israeli military's plan to attack Gaza City has been approved by the defense minister, and about 60,000 reserve call - up orders have been issued. The Israeli military officials expect to finalize the attack plan in the next few days. The Iranian Defense Minister said that if the enemy continues malicious acts, Iran's response will be destructive and unexpected. The Iranian Foreign Minister said that Iran has not reached the mature stage for "effective" nuclear negotiations with the US [9][10]. Group 3: Market Analysis and Outlook for Dry Bulk Shipping - On August 20, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index (BDI) fell for the third consecutive day to 1927 points, down 1.88% from the previous day, the lowest level since August 5. The Capesize ship freight index fell 156 points, or 5.2%, to 2867 points, and the daily average profit of Capesize ships fell $1294 to $23,778. The Panamax ship freight index rose 28 points, or 1.7%, to 1665 points, and the daily average profit of Panamax ships rose $248 to $14,985. The Supramax bulk carrier freight index rose 19 points, or 1.4%, to 1388 points [10]. - On August 20, the freight rate of the Capesize ship iron ore route from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was $23.48/ton, down 2.19% month - on - month; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was $9.04/ton, down 1.69% month - on - month. As of August 15, the freight rate of the Capesize ship coal route from Hay Point, Australia to Qingdao was $11.90/ton, down 4.80% from the previous week; the freight rate from Hay Point, Australia to Rotterdam was $19.90/ton, down 1.49% from the previous week. The freight rate of the Capesize ship bauxite route from Guinea to Yantai was $25.50/ton, up 2.82% from the previous week [12]. - From August 11 to August 17, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume was 34.066 million tons, an increase of 3.599 million tons month - on - month. The total shipping volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 27.56 million tons, an increase of 2.257 million tons month - on - month. In August 2025, Brazil's soybean export volume is expected to reach 8.9 million tons, and the corn export volume is expected to reach 8.05 million tons [14]. - Yesterday, there were not many cargoes in the two major markets of Capesize ships, the available shipping capacity in the market increased, the bearish sentiment rose, and the freight rates continued to decline. In the Panamax ship market, there were not many coal and grain cargoes, and the shipowners' quotes were relatively firm, with a slight increase in freight rates. In the large - ship market, it is expected that the cargo volume in mid - to - late September will decline compared with late August, and the short - term freight rates will be under pressure. In the medium - ship market, the short - term grain transportation demand lacks obvious growth. Although the coal demand from power plants provides some support for the medium - ship freight rates, it is expected that the support will gradually weaken after the end of August [15]. Group 4: Industry News for Dry Bulk Shipping - In July 2025, Japan imported 15.73 million tons of coal, a year - on - year increase of 6%, and the coal import value was 294.911 billion yen ($1.995 billion), a year - on - year decrease of 28.5% [16]. - The US Soybean Association strongly urged the Trump administration to reach an agreement to reopen the Chinese market for US soybeans [16]. Group 5: Market Analysis and Outlook for Tanker Shipping - On August 20, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was 1010, up 1.1% month - on - month and 9.78% year - on - year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was 616, up 0.65% month - on - month and down 5.52% year - on - year. Recently, the crude oil market and the refined oil market have shown different trends. The crude oil market is generally stable and improving, with the VLCC market maintaining stable freight rates due to shipowners' price support and tight shipping capacity supply. In the refined oil market, the BCTI has continued to decline, and the imbalance between supply and demand still exists. In the short term, attention should be paid to the impact of the concentrated booking of Middle - East routes in September on subsequent freight rates, and in the long term, attention should be paid to the impact of environmental protection elimination and supply - demand reshaping on freight rates [19]. Group 6: Industry News for Tanker Shipping - As of the week ending August 20, Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.61 million barrels to 23.035 million barrels, the lowest level in 8 weeks [20]. - India will continue to buy Russian oil despite US pressure, and the foreign ministers of Russia and India will discuss strengthening strategic partnership in Moscow [20].
银河期货航运日报-20250820
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 11:17
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot market for container shipping is in a downward trend, and the EC futures market is expected to remain weakly volatile. The dry bulk shipping market has seen a decline in the Baltic Dry Index due to falling freight rates for Capesize vessels, while the tanker market shows a divergence between the crude oil and refined oil sectors [6][14][22]. Summary by Directory Part I: Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (Europe Line) Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Performance**: On August 20, the EC2510 contract closed at 2123 points, down 0.2% from the previous day. The SCFI Europe Line reported on August 15 was $1820/TEU, down 7.2% month-on-month. The second-phase settlement index of EC2508 reported on Monday was 2180.17 points, down 2.5% month-on-month, slightly exceeding market expectations [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: With the decline in cargo volume and sufficient capacity supply, spot freight rates are accelerating their decline. The tariff policy has put pressure on the market, and geopolitical factors such as the Israel-Palestine ceasefire negotiations may affect the far - month contracts [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should expect a weak and volatile market. For arbitrage, consider rolling operations on the 10 - 12 reverse spread at low levels [8][9]. Industry News - Trump believes there is a good chance to stop the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list. Korea's KMTC ordered 4 container ships and returned to the Trans - Pacific route [11]. Part II: Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The Baltic Dry Index fell to a two - week low on Tuesday due to falling Capesize vessel freight rates. The Capesize vessel freight index and daily earnings decreased, while the Panamax vessel freight index and daily earnings increased slightly [14]. - **Spot Rates**: On August 19, the Capesize vessel iron ore route rates from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao and from Western Australia to Qingdao decreased. Weekly data showed mixed trends for different routes [15]. - **Shipping Data**: From August 11 - 17, the global iron ore shipment volume increased, and Brazilian soybean and corn shipments showed certain growth compared to the same period last year [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Capesize vessel market has few cargoes and weak market sentiment, while the Panamax vessel market has limited coal and grain cargoes. The short - term freight rates of large - sized vessels are under pressure, and the support for medium - sized vessel freight rates from coal transportation demand is expected to weaken [18]. Industry News - The iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased slightly. The US added product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list. A coal - laden bulk carrier explosion closed the main channel of the Baltimore Port [19]. Part III: Tanker Transportation Market Analysis and Outlook - **Market Performance**: On August 19, the BDTI was 999, down 1.58% month - on - month and up 8.0% year - on - year. On August 18, the BCTI was 612, up 1.16% month - on - month and down 4.38% year - on - year [22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The crude oil market is stable, with VLCC and Aframax vessel freight rates supported by tight capacity. The refined oil market has an imbalance between supply and demand, and short - term and long - term factors need to be monitored [22]. Industry News - The refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE decreased. India's imports of Russian crude oil decreased in July, and state - owned refineries will seek alternative sources in August and September [23][24]. Part IV: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts showing the trends of container shipping, dry bulk shipping, and tanker transportation indices and freight rates over different time periods [26][37][43].
银河期货航运日报-20250715
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 14:19
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping market shows significant price fluctuations in futures contracts, with some contracts rising sharply. The spot freight rate peak appears later than expected, and the 08 contract's basis is gradually being repaired. Attention should be paid to tariff negotiations and market booking conditions [2][4]. - The dry - bulk shipping market has seen an overall increase in freight rates. The large - ship market is expected to stop falling and recover, while the medium - ship market is expected to have a slightly stronger and volatile freight rate [16][22]. - In the oil tanker transportation market, the BDTI has declined recently. Considering the refinery maintenance period in the second quarter and weak demand, the impact of market sentiment changes on freight rates needs to be monitored [26]. Summary by Directory Container Shipping Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - Futures contracts: On July 15, EC2510 had a significant increase of 14.92%, with a large increase in trading volume. The 08 contract is approaching delivery, and the basis is gradually being repaired [2]. - Spot freight rates: The latest SCFIS European line reported 2421.94 points, a week - on - week increase of 7.3%. MSK's WK31 Shanghai - Rotterdam opening price remained flat compared to the previous period [2][4]. - Tariffs: Trump proposed to impose 100% secondary tariffs on Russia if the Russia - Ukraine conflict is not resolved within 50 days, and may impose secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil. The US is also considering increasing tariffs on other countries, which may affect the shipping market [4][5]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short EC2510 at high prices [8]. - Arbitrage: Conduct rolling operations on the 10 - 12 reverse spread [8]. Industry News - Multiple countries are involved in tariff negotiations and counter - measures, and the cease - fire negotiation in the Gaza Strip is ongoing, which may impact the shipping market [9][11]. Dry - bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - Freight rate index: The Baltic Dry Index rose to a four - week high, with all ship - type freight rates increasing. The Capesize ship freight rate index rose by 12.5%, and the Panamax ship freight rate index reached its highest level since June 18 last year [16]. - Spot freight rates: On July 14, the freight rate of the Brazil - Qingdao iron ore route for Capesize ships increased by 2.08% week - on - week. The weekly freight rates of some coal and grain routes also showed varying degrees of increase [17]. - Shipping data: From July 7 - 13, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume decreased slightly, while the shipping volume from Australia and Brazil increased. The grain shipping volume in July 2025 was lower than that of the same period last year [19]. - Import and export data: In June 2025, China's steel exports decreased month - on - month, while imports also decreased. Iron ore imports increased month - on - month, and coal imports decreased. Soybean imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [20]. Industry News - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota validity period from three years to one year starting in 2026. The iron ore inventory at major ports in Australia and Brazil has increased [23]. Oil Tanker Transportation Market Analysis and Outlook - Freight rates: On July 14, the BDTI reported 927, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22%, and the BCTI reported 548, a week - on - week increase of 0.37%. Due to the refinery maintenance period in the second quarter, demand is relatively weak [26]. Industry News - Trump's new tariffs may exempt energy products. An explosion occurred at a production facility in an oil field in Canada, and there have been multiple engine shutdown incidents on Indian flights [27][28]. Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to container shipping, dry - bulk shipping, and oil tanker transportation freight rates and indices, to visually display market trends [31][32][41]
银河期货航运日报-20250513
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 09:27
Report Overview - The report is a shipping research report by the Commodity Research Institute, covering container shipping, dry bulk shipping, and tanker transportation [1][10][28] Group 1: Container Shipping Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - The 08 main contract of the container shipping index (European line) continued to strengthen significantly on May 13, with EC2508 closing at 1896 points, up 5.69% from the previous day's close [5] - The SCFIS European line reported 1302.62 points on May 13, down 5.54% month-on-month, and the SCFI European line reported $1161/TEU on May 9, down 3.25% month-on-month [5] - The spot freight rate bottom is gradually emerging. After the tariff reduction, the US line rush shipment starts to raise prices first. The European line disk anticipates first, and then the follow-up focus returns to the spot. The short-term near-month disk is expected to fluctuate at a high level [7] - Hold the 8-10 positive spread, 6-10 positive spread, and 10-12 negative spread [8] Industry News - The EU welcomes the substantial progress and important consensus reached in the China-US economic and trade high-level talks, hoping to reduce trade barriers and support the stability and predictability of global trade and investment [9][10][11] - US tariff revenue in April reached $16 billion, a surge of $9 billion or 130% from the same period last year [11] Group 2: Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - On May 12, the Baltic Dry Bulk Composite Freight Index ended its four consecutive trading days of decline. The BDI rose 0.38% to 1304 points, the BCI rose 1.29% to 1731 points, the BPI fell 0.81% to 1342 points, and the BSI rose 0.10% to 970 points [15] - On May 12, the freight rates of the Cape-sized ship iron ore routes, Brazil Tubarao - Qingdao (BCI-C3) and Western Australia - Qingdao (BCI-C5), were reported at $18.36/ton and $7.56/ton, up 0.80% and 0.93% month-on-month respectively [16] - The dry bulk shipping market lacks obvious incremental transportation demand, with more supply of shipping capacity, and the freight rates are under pressure. The international dry bulk freight market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [17] Industry News - From May 5 to May 11, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 24.225 million tons, a decrease of 1.179 million tons month-on-month. The global iron ore shipments were 30.29 million tons, a decrease of 0.215 million tons month-on-month [18] - The analysis institution APK - Inform lowered the forecast of Ukraine's 2025 grain harvest by 3.8% to 55.3 million tons and the grain export forecast for the 2025/26 season by 4% to 40.9 million tons [18] - Indonesia's coal exports from January to April decreased by more than 10% year-on-year, hitting a new low for the same period in three years [19] Group 3: Tanker Transportation Market Analysis and Outlook - On May 12, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was reported at 991, down 0.40% month-on-month and 14.50% year-on-year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was reported at 574, up 0.17% month-on-month and down 45.54% year-on-year [22] - OPEC+ started to gradually increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, which may increase the global seaborne demand for crude oil. The concentrated outflow of cargoes in late April and early May supported the VLCC ship market, and the impact of the cargo release rhythm on freight rates needs further attention [22] Industry News - As of May 12, the domestic refined oil social unit diesel storage capacity utilization rate was 30.35%, up 0.02% from the end of last month [23] - US President Trump hopes to obtain a $1 trillion investment commitment from Saudi Arabia, but this goal may face huge obstacles [23][24] - After the China-US trade negotiation, the market showed an unexpectedly positive trend, but the oil price subsequently fell back, and the market atmosphere remained cautious [24]