大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2025 年 08 月 21 日 | | | | 航运日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 第一部分 | | | | 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） | | | | | | | | 银河期货集运指数（欧线） | 日报 | | | | | | | | | 期货盘面 | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2508 | 2,125.0 | 2.0 | 0.09% | 156.0 | -4.29% | 2,060.0 | -5.03% | | EC2510 | 1,325.0 | -30.0 | -2.21% | 35,008.0 | 27.31% | 54,293.0 | 4.96% | | EC2512 | 1,721.4 | -54.5 | -3.07% | 7,519.0 | 50.44% | 12,209.0 | 5.16% | | EC2602 | 1,513.0 | -19.0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot market for container shipping is in a downward trend, and the EC futures market is expected to remain weakly volatile. The dry bulk shipping market has seen a decline in the Baltic Dry Index due to falling freight rates for Capesize vessels, while the tanker market shows a divergence between the crude oil and refined oil sectors [6][14][22]. Summary by Directory Part I: Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (Europe Line) Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Performance**: On August 20, the EC2510 contract closed at 2123 points, down 0.2% from the previous day. The SCFI Europe Line reported on August 15 was $1820/TEU, down 7.2% month-on-month. The second-phase settlement index of EC2508 reported on Monday was 2180.17 points, down 2.5% month-on-month, slightly exceeding market expectations [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: With the decline in cargo volume and sufficient capacity supply, spot freight rates are accelerating their decline. The tariff policy has put pressure on the market, and geopolitical factors such as the Israel-Palestine ceasefire negotiations may affect the far - month contracts [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should expect a weak and volatile market. For arbitrage, consider rolling operations on the 10 - 12 reverse spread at low levels [8][9]. Industry News - Trump believes there is a good chance to stop the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list. Korea's KMTC ordered 4 container ships and returned to the Trans - Pacific route [11]. Part II: Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The Baltic Dry Index fell to a two - week low on Tuesday due to falling Capesize vessel freight rates. The Capesize vessel freight index and daily earnings decreased, while the Panamax vessel freight index and daily earnings increased slightly [14]. - **Spot Rates**: On August 19, the Capesize vessel iron ore route rates from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao and from Western Australia to Qingdao decreased. Weekly data showed mixed trends for different routes [15]. - **Shipping Data**: From August 11 - 17, the global iron ore shipment volume increased, and Brazilian soybean and corn shipments showed certain growth compared to the same period last year [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Capesize vessel market has few cargoes and weak market sentiment, while the Panamax vessel market has limited coal and grain cargoes. The short - term freight rates of large - sized vessels are under pressure, and the support for medium - sized vessel freight rates from coal transportation demand is expected to weaken [18]. Industry News - The iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased slightly. The US added product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list. A coal - laden bulk carrier explosion closed the main channel of the Baltimore Port [19]. Part III: Tanker Transportation Market Analysis and Outlook - **Market Performance**: On August 19, the BDTI was 999, down 1.58% month - on - month and up 8.0% year - on - year. On August 18, the BCTI was 612, up 1.16% month - on - month and down 4.38% year - on - year [22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The crude oil market is stable, with VLCC and Aframax vessel freight rates supported by tight capacity. The refined oil market has an imbalance between supply and demand, and short - term and long - term factors need to be monitored [22]. Industry News - The refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE decreased. India's imports of Russian crude oil decreased in July, and state - owned refineries will seek alternative sources in August and September [23][24]. Part IV: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts showing the trends of container shipping, dry bulk shipping, and tanker transportation indices and freight rates over different time periods [26][37][43].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping market shows significant price fluctuations in futures contracts, with some contracts rising sharply. The spot freight rate peak appears later than expected, and the 08 contract's basis is gradually being repaired. Attention should be paid to tariff negotiations and market booking conditions [2][4]. - The dry - bulk shipping market has seen an overall increase in freight rates. The large - ship market is expected to stop falling and recover, while the medium - ship market is expected to have a slightly stronger and volatile freight rate [16][22]. - In the oil tanker transportation market, the BDTI has declined recently. Considering the refinery maintenance period in the second quarter and weak demand, the impact of market sentiment changes on freight rates needs to be monitored [26]. Summary by Directory Container Shipping Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - Futures contracts: On July 15, EC2510 had a significant increase of 14.92%, with a large increase in trading volume. The 08 contract is approaching delivery, and the basis is gradually being repaired [2]. - Spot freight rates: The latest SCFIS European line reported 2421.94 points, a week - on - week increase of 7.3%. MSK's WK31 Shanghai - Rotterdam opening price remained flat compared to the previous period [2][4]. - Tariffs: Trump proposed to impose 100% secondary tariffs on Russia if the Russia - Ukraine conflict is not resolved within 50 days, and may impose secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil. The US is also considering increasing tariffs on other countries, which may affect the shipping market [4][5]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short EC2510 at high prices [8]. - Arbitrage: Conduct rolling operations on the 10 - 12 reverse spread [8]. Industry News - Multiple countries are involved in tariff negotiations and counter - measures, and the cease - fire negotiation in the Gaza Strip is ongoing, which may impact the shipping market [9][11]. Dry - bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - Freight rate index: The Baltic Dry Index rose to a four - week high, with all ship - type freight rates increasing. The Capesize ship freight rate index rose by 12.5%, and the Panamax ship freight rate index reached its highest level since June 18 last year [16]. - Spot freight rates: On July 14, the freight rate of the Brazil - Qingdao iron ore route for Capesize ships increased by 2.08% week - on - week. The weekly freight rates of some coal and grain routes also showed varying degrees of increase [17]. - Shipping data: From July 7 - 13, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume decreased slightly, while the shipping volume from Australia and Brazil increased. The grain shipping volume in July 2025 was lower than that of the same period last year [19]. - Import and export data: In June 2025, China's steel exports decreased month - on - month, while imports also decreased. Iron ore imports increased month - on - month, and coal imports decreased. Soybean imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [20]. Industry News - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota validity period from three years to one year starting in 2026. The iron ore inventory at major ports in Australia and Brazil has increased [23]. Oil Tanker Transportation Market Analysis and Outlook - Freight rates: On July 14, the BDTI reported 927, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22%, and the BCTI reported 548, a week - on - week increase of 0.37%. Due to the refinery maintenance period in the second quarter, demand is relatively weak [26]. Industry News - Trump's new tariffs may exempt energy products. An explosion occurred at a production facility in an oil field in Canada, and there have been multiple engine shutdown incidents on Indian flights [27][28]. Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to container shipping, dry - bulk shipping, and oil tanker transportation freight rates and indices, to visually display market trends [31][32][41]

Report Overview - The report is a shipping research report by the Commodity Research Institute, covering container shipping, dry bulk shipping, and tanker transportation [1][10][28] Group 1: Container Shipping Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - The 08 main contract of the container shipping index (European line) continued to strengthen significantly on May 13, with EC2508 closing at 1896 points, up 5.69% from the previous day's close [5] - The SCFIS European line reported 1302.62 points on May 13, down 5.54% month-on-month, and the SCFI European line reported $1161/TEU on May 9, down 3.25% month-on-month [5] - The spot freight rate bottom is gradually emerging. After the tariff reduction, the US line rush shipment starts to raise prices first. The European line disk anticipates first, and then the follow-up focus returns to the spot. The short-term near-month disk is expected to fluctuate at a high level [7] - Hold the 8-10 positive spread, 6-10 positive spread, and 10-12 negative spread [8] Industry News - The EU welcomes the substantial progress and important consensus reached in the China-US economic and trade high-level talks, hoping to reduce trade barriers and support the stability and predictability of global trade and investment [9][10][11] - US tariff revenue in April reached $16 billion, a surge of $9 billion or 130% from the same period last year [11] Group 2: Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - On May 12, the Baltic Dry Bulk Composite Freight Index ended its four consecutive trading days of decline. The BDI rose 0.38% to 1304 points, the BCI rose 1.29% to 1731 points, the BPI fell 0.81% to 1342 points, and the BSI rose 0.10% to 970 points [15] - On May 12, the freight rates of the Cape-sized ship iron ore routes, Brazil Tubarao - Qingdao (BCI-C3) and Western Australia - Qingdao (BCI-C5), were reported at $18.36/ton and $7.56/ton, up 0.80% and 0.93% month-on-month respectively [16] - The dry bulk shipping market lacks obvious incremental transportation demand, with more supply of shipping capacity, and the freight rates are under pressure. The international dry bulk freight market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [17] Industry News - From May 5 to May 11, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 24.225 million tons, a decrease of 1.179 million tons month-on-month. The global iron ore shipments were 30.29 million tons, a decrease of 0.215 million tons month-on-month [18] - The analysis institution APK - Inform lowered the forecast of Ukraine's 2025 grain harvest by 3.8% to 55.3 million tons and the grain export forecast for the 2025/26 season by 4% to 40.9 million tons [18] - Indonesia's coal exports from January to April decreased by more than 10% year-on-year, hitting a new low for the same period in three years [19] Group 3: Tanker Transportation Market Analysis and Outlook - On May 12, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was reported at 991, down 0.40% month-on-month and 14.50% year-on-year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was reported at 574, up 0.17% month-on-month and down 45.54% year-on-year [22] - OPEC+ started to gradually increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, which may increase the global seaborne demand for crude oil. The concentrated outflow of cargoes in late April and early May supported the VLCC ship market, and the impact of the cargo release rhythm on freight rates needs further attention [22] Industry News - As of May 12, the domestic refined oil social unit diesel storage capacity utilization rate was 30.35%, up 0.02% from the end of last month [23] - US President Trump hopes to obtain a $1 trillion investment commitment from Saudi Arabia, but this goal may face huge obstacles [23][24] - After the China-US trade negotiation, the market showed an unexpectedly positive trend, but the oil price subsequently fell back, and the market atmosphere remained cautious [24]