Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Chinese government bond market has undergone deep calibration amid frequent macro narratives and intense long-short logic battles, characterized by record supply and a proactive issuance pace in the primary market, effectively supporting active fiscal policies while the secondary market experienced a narrow range of fluctuations in the 10-year bond yield, which gradually shifted downward throughout the year [1][13]. Group 1: Primary Market Dynamics - In 2025, the primary market for government bonds achieved a historic leap under the theme of "active fiscal policy moderately strengthened, quality improved," with notable features including increased supply scale, scientifically advanced issuance pace, and continuous optimization of maturity structure [2][15]. - The total issuance of government bonds reached a historic high of 16,014.02 billion yuan, a significant increase of 28.37% compared to 12,474.83 billion yuan in 2024, with 206 bonds issued throughout the year [2][15]. - The issuance of special bonds focused on long-term funding for national strategic security areas and key projects, with the issuance of ultra-long special bonds reaching 1.3 trillion yuan, expected to significantly boost annual GDP growth [5][19]. Group 2: Interest Rate Trends - The overall issuance interest rates of government bonds declined, effectively guiding the financing costs across society. The short-term interest rates (1-3 years) ranged from 1.16% to 1.79%, while the 10-year bond issuance rate stabilized around 1.78% [6][19]. - The systematic decline in issuance costs of government bonds, as a risk-free rate anchor, directly contributed to the reduction of comprehensive financing costs in the bond market and the real economy, achieving efficient unity between fiscal sustainability and financial benefits to the real sector [6][19]. Group 3: Secondary Market Developments - The secondary market for government bonds in 2025 was characterized by complex dynamics, with the 10-year bond yield fluctuating between approximately 1.6% and 1.9%, undergoing a "four-round game" of expectations that ultimately established a new oscillating equilibrium [7][21]. - The first round saw a rapid correction of overly optimistic expectations regarding monetary easing, with yields rebounding nearly 40 basis points by mid-March [9][21]. - The fourth round featured a key institutional benefit with the central bank's announcement to restart government bond trading operations, which was interpreted as a significant step in enhancing liquidity management tools and stabilizing long-term expectations [10][22]. Group 4: Strategic Role of Government Bonds - The evolution of the government bond market in 2025 transcended mere financing and trading, extending its functions to monetary policy operations, financial openness, and the construction of the national credit system [11][23]. - The "stabilizer" and "attractiveness" roles of RMB assets have strengthened, with foreign investors steadily increasing their holdings, leading to broader inclusion of government bonds in major global bond indices [11][23]. - The modernization of government bond management, including the incorporation of bond trading into the central bank's regular monetary policy toolbox, marks a significant milestone in establishing a modern central banking system [11][23]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The government bond market is expected to continue evolving under the overarching theme of "high-quality development," balancing necessary government financing, reducing debt costs, and maintaining financial system stability [12][24]. - As market depth, product innovation, and institutional openness progress, the yield curve of government bonds will increasingly serve as a benchmark for asset pricing across society [12][24]. - Market participants will need to shift from merely chasing interest rate trends to developing a deeper understanding of macro logic, seizing structural opportunities, and effectively managing interest rate risks to succeed in the new balanced market [12][24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The net financing of government bonds in the 22nd week (May 26 - June 1) was 137.4 billion yuan, and 248.5 billion yuan in the 23rd week (June 2 - June 8). As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount reached 6.3 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 3.6 trillion yuan. The net financing of treasury bonds in the 22nd week was 0 yuan, and 198 billion yuan in the 23rd week. As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount was 2.7 trillion yuan, with a progress of 40.2%. The net financing of local bonds in the 22nd week was 137.4 billion yuan, and 50.5 billion yuan in the 23rd week. As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount was 3.7 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 2 trillion yuan [1]. - The net financing of new general bonds in the 22nd week was 2.36 billion yuan, and 0.87 billion yuan in the 23rd week. As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount was 35.1 billion yuan, with a progress of 43.9%. The net financing of new special bonds in the 22nd week was 15.6 billion yuan, and 0.73 billion yuan in the 23rd week. As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount was 1.6 trillion yuan, with a progress of 37.1%. Special new special bonds of 243.9 billion yuan and land reserve special bonds of 108.3 billion yuan have been issued. The net financing of special refinancing bonds in the 22nd week was 0.5 billion yuan, and 2.77 billion yuan in the 23rd week. As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount was 1.6 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 81%. The net financing of urban investment bonds in the 22nd week was 0.33 billion yuan, and is expected to be -1.73 billion yuan in the 23rd week. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds was approximately 10.5 trillion yuan [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Government Debt Financing - The net financing of government bonds in the 22nd week (May 26 - June 1) was 137.4 billion yuan, and 248.5 billion yuan in the 23rd week (June 2 - June 8). As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount reached 6.3 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 3.6 trillion yuan [1]. Treasury Bonds - The net financing of treasury bonds in the 22nd week was 0 yuan, and 198 billion yuan in the 23rd week. As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount was 2.7 trillion yuan, with a progress of 40.2%. The special treasury bonds issued were 17.6 billion yuan, including 10.5 billion yuan of capital - injection special treasury bonds and 7.1 billion yuan of 30 - year ultra - long - term special treasury bonds [1]. Local Bonds - The net financing of local bonds in the 22nd week was 137.4 billion yuan, and 50.5 billion yuan in the 23rd week. As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount was 3.7 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 2 trillion yuan [1]. New General Bonds - The net financing of new general bonds in the 22nd week was 2.36 billion yuan, and 0.87 billion yuan in the 23rd week. As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount was 35.1 billion yuan, with a progress of 43.9% [2]. New Special Bonds - The net financing of new special bonds in the 22nd week was 15.6 billion yuan, and 0.73 billion yuan in the 23rd week. As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount was 1.6 trillion yuan, with a progress of 37.1%. Special new special bonds of 243.9 billion yuan and land reserve special bonds of 108.3 billion yuan have been issued [2]. Special Refinancing Bonds - The net financing of special refinancing bonds in the 22nd week was 0.5 billion yuan, and 2.77 billion yuan in the 23rd week. As of the 22nd week, the cumulative amount was 1.6 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 81% [2]. Urban Investment Bonds - The net financing of urban investment bonds in the 22nd week was 0.33 billion yuan, and is expected to be -1.73 billion yuan in the 23rd week. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds was approximately 10.5 trillion yuan [2]. Basic Data - The ChinaBond Composite Index was 254.4; the ChinaBond Long/Medium - Short - Term Index was 245.4/209.1; the yield of inter - bank treasury bonds (10Y) was 1.68; the scale of enterprise/company/convertible bonds (in hundreds of billions) was 69.9/23.8/6.9 [5].