智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，预测ASMPT(00522)第三季可能因一次性重组开支而录得 亏损，但建议投资者关注其长期增长动力，包括CoWoS-L产能扩张、中国高频宽记忆体发展及混合键 合进展。大摩又指，主流半导体需求正在复苏，而且先进封装市场持续增长，目前估计ASMPT第三季 订单出货比将维持在1倍以上，给予"增持"评级，目标价由80港元升至100港元，并将2026及2027年每股 盈利预测上调10%及23%，今年全年盈测则下调45%。 该行指，ASMPT第三季收入指引中位数为4.75亿美元，即同比增长11%。大摩目前预测公司收入可符合 指引，但相信期内会录得约3.6亿元人民币的一次性重组开支，因而将录得约6,900万元净亏损。至于第 四季，该行预测收入可达到36.46亿元，料同比增长7%，并按季扭亏录净利润约1.26亿元，主要受到先 进封装推动半导体解决方案收入增长。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor backend equipment market is entering a new era, transitioning from cost-sensitive processes to advanced packaging technologies and increasingly complex semiconductor devices. The market size is expected to grow from $6.9 billion in 2025 to $9.8 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.1% [1]. Market Dynamics: Transformation through Complexity - The semiconductor manufacturing industry is rapidly evolving, with the backend being central to this transformation. Factors such as chip architecture, heterogeneous integration, and the rise of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) are driving demand for new equipment [2]. Backend Semiconductor Equipment: Growth Prospects by Segment - Core backend equipment segments include die bonders, flip chip bonders, thermal compression bonders (TCB), hybrid bonding, wire bonding, wafer thinning, cutting, and metrology and inspection. Advanced technologies like TCB and hybrid bonding are key to driving significant changes, while traditional solutions like wire bonding still hold market potential [5][6]. TCB: Rapid Rise - TCB is gaining prominence due to its critical role in advanced packaging, especially in HBM integration. Revenue is expected to reach approximately $1.1 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 13.4%. The no-adhesive TCB technology reduces contamination and enhances reliability, with suppliers like Hanmi, ASMPT, Kulicke & Soffa (K&S), and BESI actively expanding in this area [6]. Hybrid Bonding: Disruptive Technology - Hybrid bonding is one of the most disruptive backend technologies today, enabling ultra-fine pitch below 5 µm without solder bumps, essential for AI, HPC, and chip-based designs. The market for this segment is projected to reach about $477 million by 2030, with a CAGR of 24.6%. Industry leaders like TSMC, Intel, and Samsung are early adopters, while BESI's strategic partnerships position it at the forefront of equipment innovation [7]. Die Attach and Flip Chip Bonder - Traditional die attach machines continue to evolve, offering ±1 µm placement accuracy and enhanced thermal control. By 2030, revenue from die attach machines is expected to reach $912 million, driven by automotive, consumer electronics, and industrial applications [7]. Flip Chip Bonder - Flip chip bonders are crucial for both traditional and advanced high-density packaging, with market size projected to exceed $662 million by 2030. Innovations like no-adhesive processes and ultra-fine pitch interconnects are enhancing I/O density and electrical performance [8]. Wire Bonding - Despite its maturity, wire bonding technology has broad application prospects, particularly in cost-sensitive and traditional applications. Advances in ultra-fine wire (<15 µm), copper bonding, and advanced loop control are driving its evolution. K&S is expected to maintain a strong market position, with revenue projected to grow slightly to about $994 million by 2030 [8]. Wafer Thinning and Cutting - The demand for thinning and cutting technologies is strong due to shrinking device sizes and the surge in wafer-level packaging. By 2030, the wafer thinning market is expected to grow to over $890 million, driven by ultra-thin grinding (<50 µm) and plasma-assisted dry thinning technologies [11]. The cutting market is projected to reach approximately $2 billion, with laser and plasma cutting gaining popularity for their precision and reduced debris [11]. Metrology and Inspection - Metrology and inspection equipment ensure yield, reliability, and compliance with strict quality standards, especially in automotive and HPC sectors. By 2030, this field's revenue is expected to grow to about $850 million, driven by defect classification and high-resolution optics [12]. Key Market Participants and Investments - The growth of backend equipment technology is supported by strategic investments from OSAT suppliers and IDM manufacturers. Leading OSAT firms like ASE, Amkor, JCET, and SPIL are expanding capacity to meet advanced packaging demands, while foundries and IDM manufacturers are investing heavily in HBM, chiplets, and hybrid bonding technologies [19]. Equipment suppliers like K&S, BESI, ASMPT, DISCO, and Hanmi are driving technological advancements and expanding product offerings [19]. Conclusion - The backend equipment market is expected to exceed $9 billion by 2030, driven by a 7.1% CAGR and transformative packaging technologies. While traditional processes remain vital, TCB, hybrid bonding, wafer thinning, and advanced cutting technologies are propelling market growth. This evolution reflects a broader industry shift towards HPC, AI, automotive, and 5G applications, emphasizing performance, density, and reliability [21].

Core Viewpoint - The next significant leap in semiconductor packaging will require a series of new technologies, processes, and materials that will collectively achieve an order-of-magnitude performance improvement, which is crucial for the AI era [1]. Group 1: Advances in Cooling Technologies - Liquid cooling technology at the chip level is emerging as forced air cooling reaches its limits, with up to 40% of power used for current delivery and heat dissipation [4]. - TSMC's silicon integrated micro-cooler (IMEC-Si) is being tested for reliability, designed to handle over 3,000 watts of uniform power dissipation under specific conditions [6]. - The demand for direct liquid cooling is increasing, with innovative concepts like using chips as coolants being proposed [7]. Group 2: Hybrid Bonding and Interconnects - Hybrid bonding with fine-pitch multilayer redistribution layers (RDL) is gaining attention as a cost-effective solution for high-speed interconnects [14]. - Intel's hybrid bonding can achieve spacing as small as 1µm, which is critical for advanced applications [5][17]. - The transition from traditional dielectric materials to polymer/copper hybrid bonding is being explored to enhance performance [16]. Group 3: Backside Power Delivery - Backside power delivery significantly reduces voltage drop related to transistor power supply, but it also exacerbates heat issues [19]. - IBM has developed an anisotropic model for precise heat transfer calculations in backend stacks, emphasizing the importance of thermal considerations in design [21]. - The implementation of backside power delivery is expected to lead to a 10% to 30% reduction in thermal losses [23]. Group 4: Co-Packaged Optical Devices - The demand for faster data networks is driving the integration of optical engines with GPUs and HBM in a single package, significantly increasing data transmission speeds [26]. - Co-packaged optical devices (CPO) are expected to achieve a 32-fold increase in bandwidth by bringing optical engines closer to processors [26]. - However, challenges remain regarding thermal management and warpage sensitivity in CPO implementations [28].