平安观点： 观 报 告 宏 观 周 报 宏 2026 年 2 月 8 日 中国宏观周报（2026 年 2 月第 1 周） 二手房挂牌价恢复 证券分析师 证 券 研 究 报 告 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 常艺馨 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522080003 CHANGYIXIN050@pingan.com.cn 从高频数据观察，本周春节临近，工业生产环比大多季节性走弱，工业品 价格指数环比回落。不过，年初以来二手房挂牌价逐步止跌，外贸港口吞 吐量及韩国、越南 1 月出口数据表现亮眼，体现外需支撑增强。 1. 工业：本周生产环比季节性走弱。1）原材料方面，本周日均铁水产量提 升，部分化工品开工率环比提升；水泥熟料产能利用率、浮法玻璃开工率、 石油沥青开工率、钢铁建材表观需求环比回落。2）中下游方面，本周纺织 聚酯开工率、织造业开工率季节性走弱；汽车半钢胎开工率、全钢胎开工 率环比回落。 2. 地产：二手房挂牌价抬升。1）销售方面，本周（截至 2 月 6 日）30 大中 城市新房销售面积同比快速增长，去年同期基数受春节假期拖累；年初以 ...

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of Estonia's port cargo throughput in December 2025, showing a significant year-on-year increase in December while indicating an overall decline for the year 2025 [1] Group 1: December Performance - In December 2025, Estonia's port cargo throughput reached 1.799 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.8% [1] - The cargo loading volume in December was 1.109 million tons, which is a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [1] - The cargo unloading volume in December was 0.690 million tons, showing a substantial year-on-year increase of 36.7% [1] Group 2: Annual Performance - The total cargo throughput for Estonia's ports in 2025 was 20.727 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4.4% [1] - The total loading volume for the year was 12.415 million tons, which is a year-on-year decrease of 6.6% [1] - The total unloading volume for 2025 was 8.312 million tons, indicating a slight year-on-year decline of 0.9% [1]

Core Insights - The port of San Antonio in Chile is nearing its maximum capacity, with throughput expected to exceed 2.06 million TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units) in 2025, representing a 14% year-on-year increase [1] - The total cargo volume is projected to reach 23.86 million tons, which accounts for 80% of the port's maximum throughput capacity [1] - To achieve the target of 2.5 million TEUs by 2033-2034, an investment of $4.45 billion is required, with $1.95 billion expected to come from public funds [1]

Core Insights - The Douala Port Authority (PAD) in Cameroon projects a balanced budget for the fiscal year 2026, with revenues of 122.06 billion CFA francs (approximately $203 million) and expenditures of 121.5 billion CFA francs (approximately $202 million) [1] - Revenue for 2026 is expected to decline by 6% compared to the forecasted revenue of 129.975 billion CFA francs (approximately $216 million) for 2025, while expenditures are projected to decrease by 5.7% [1] - The reductions in revenue and expenditures are primarily attributed to a decrease in external funding, particularly bank financing for major investment projects [1] Revenue and Expenditure Projections - Douala Port's revenue for 2026 is projected at 122.06 billion CFA francs, down from 129.975 billion CFA francs in 2025 [1] - Expenditures for 2026 are expected to be 121.5 billion CFA francs, a decrease from the 2025 forecast [1] - External funding for significant investment projects is anticipated to decline, with projections of 34 billion CFA francs in 2024, 18 billion CFA francs in 2025, and further reductions in 2026 [1] Operational Challenges - Douala Port handles 75% to 85% of the national cargo volume and a significant portion of goods destined for Chad and the Central African Republic [1] - The port has been facing long-standing congestion issues, leading to a decline in logistics activities in recent years [1] - Overall cargo volume at Douala Port decreased by 6.9% as of March 2025, primarily due to a reduction in both import and export tonnage [1] - The number of vessels docking at Douala Port fell by 11% from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant growth in container throughput and cargo volume at Wuhan Yangluo Port, with container volume reaching 601,000 TEUs and total cargo volume hitting 8.833 million tons in 2025, marking historical highs with year-on-year increases of 3.8% and 4.8% respectively [1][2] - The continuous growth in foreign trade business is attributed to the optimization of the port's business environment, improved customs efficiency, and reduced logistics costs, which enhance the international competitiveness of enterprises [1] - Direct shipping has emerged as a new engine for foreign trade growth at Yangluo Port, with the "Indonesia-Wuhan" direct shipping route completing a cargo volume of 282,000 tons, accounting for 76.4% of the total direct shipping volume, supporting the import needs of key industries such as new energy in Hubei [1] Group 2 - Under the strong support of Wuhan New Port Customs, Yangluo Port has opened five international direct shipping routes and established three transit channels, enhancing its global shipping network [2] - The integration of the "China-Europe Railway Express" with river-sea combined transport has expanded the port's reach, while the promotion of "direct loading and unloading" and "linked unloading" models has improved distribution efficiency [2] - Yangluo Port has developed a diverse international transport pattern connecting Japan and South Korea to the east, ASEAN to the south, Europe to the west, and Mongolia and Russia to the north [2]

Core Insights - The Buenaventura Port Authority announced that its port ranked 28th globally in the latest Container Port Performance Index published by the World Bank and S&P Global Market Intelligence, improving by 20 positions from last year, making it one of the best-performing ports in Latin America, second only to Ecuador's Puerto de Posorja [1] Company Developments - The port currently handles over half of the national cargo volume and is actively pursuing strategic partnerships with Chinese companies, including COSCO Shipping and the Metro Line 1 project [1] Industry Context - Despite facing transformations and challenges in the global port industry, Buenaventura Port has demonstrated robust technical capabilities and a comprehensive logistics system, enabling it to efficiently respond to market demands and inject new momentum into regional economic development [1]

Core Insights - In September 2025, Estonia's port cargo throughput reached 1.743 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, which is the first growth observed this year [1] - The cargo loading volume was 1.003 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, while the cargo unloading volume was 0.740 million tons, showing a year-on-year decline of 5.4% [1] Year-to-Date Performance - From January to September 2025, the total cargo throughput at Estonian ports amounted to 15.303 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 7.3% [1] - The loading volume during this period was 9.189 million tons, down 8.2% year-on-year, while the unloading volume was 6.114 million tons, which is a year-on-year decline of 5.9% [1]

Core Insights - Yangpu Port has achieved significant growth in cargo throughput, reaching 61.8392 million tons from January to September, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.31% [1] Infrastructure Development - The successful commissioning of the first phase of the Yangpu Hub Port Expansion Project has provided robust hardware support for cargo throughput growth [2] - The expansion includes a new 700-meter dock line with one 200,000-ton and one 150,000-ton container berth, along with various handling equipment [2] - The project enhances Yangpu Port's capability to accommodate large ocean-going vessels, addressing previous hardware bottlenecks and supporting increasing cargo demand [2][3] Shipping Network Expansion - The establishment of new direct shipping routes, such as the one from Batam Island, Indonesia to Yangpu Port, has further expanded maritime services between China and Southeast Asia [4] - Yangpu Port has opened 63 internal and external trade routes, including 30 domestic and 33 international routes, enhancing connectivity with key global trade regions [6] Operational Efficiency - The optimization of navigation efficiency has significantly improved the port's competitiveness, with the first instance of two-way navigation for 10,000-ton vessels recorded [7] - The implementation of a dual-week service for the Yangpu-Port to Abu Dhabi route has created a more efficient logistics channel [6] Policy and Market Dynamics - The upcoming full closure operation of Hainan Free Trade Port is expected to inject strong momentum into cargo growth, supported by favorable policies such as zero tariffs and simplified tax systems [8] - The port aims to enhance infrastructure and international cooperation to solidify its role as a hub following the full operation of the Hainan Free Trade Port [8]

Core Insights - The British magazine Lloyd's List has published a ranking of the top 100 container ports by cargo throughput for 2025, highlighting the global shipping industry's trends [1] Group 1: Port Rankings - Vietnam has three ports listed in the top 100 container ports for 2025: Ho Chi Minh Port, Hai Phong Port, and Cai Mep Port [1]

Group 1: Industrial Production - China's industrial production remains stable, with daily average pig iron output and steel plate production increasing week-on-week[1] - The operating rate of oil asphalt and some chemical products has improved, while cement clinker capacity utilization has slightly adjusted[1] - Polyester weaving and automotive tire production rates have rebounded, indicating a recovery in downstream industries[1] Group 2: Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 8.9% year-on-year, but the decline rate improved by 6.2 percentage points compared to the previous week[1] - Year-to-date, new home sales have dropped by 14.2%, a 5.0 percentage point improvement from the previous month[1] - The index for second-hand home listing prices fell by 0.42% week-on-week as of August 4[1] Group 3: Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue averaged 206.74 million yuan per day, showing a year-on-year increase of 46.2%[1] - Domestic flight operations increased by 1.6% year-on-year, with the Baidu migration index rising by 17.7%[1] - Retail sales of major home appliances grew by 10.5% year-on-year as of August 1[1] Group 4: External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 6.8% year-on-year, while container throughput rose by 4.1%[1] - South Korea's export value decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, a decline of 10.2 percentage points from July[1] - The Chinese export container freight index fell by 0.6% week-on-week, indicating a downward adjustment in shipping rates[1] Group 5: Price Trends - The South China industrial product index rose by 0.4%, while the black raw material index remained stable[1] - Rebar futures prices dropped by 0.8%, and spot prices fell by 0.3%[1] - Coking coal futures prices increased by 0.2%, but spot prices in Shanxi decreased by 0.6%[1]