机构：长江证券 研究员：赵刚/杨会强/马健轩 事件描述 2025 年第三季度，公司实现营业收入2.14 亿美元，同比增长7.8%，期内溢利359.3 万美元，同比下滑 90.5%，主要系汇率波动影响。 1、公司门店拓展不及预期； 2、公司同店经营不及预期； 3、外汇汇兑风险。 分业务看，外卖与其他业务收入增长显著。2025 年第三季度，海底捞餐厅经营同比增长5.1%，主要系 业务扩张以及品牌影响力提升，公司客流及翻台率增长；外卖业务同比增长69.2%，主要系公司持续优 化外卖产品及服务，与当地外卖平台进行战略营销合作；其他业务同比增长74.5%，主要系火锅调味品 增长以及第二品牌餐厅增长；但从占比看，海底捞餐饮经营依然占据93%以上的营收份额。 经营方面，平均翻台率提升，同店销售额增长。2025 年第三季度，海底捞餐厅平均翻台率同比增长0.1 次/天至3.9 次/天，其中东亚市场增长显著，同比增长0.6 次/天至4.9 次/天；人均消费同比下滑4.65%至 24.6 美元，各市场均有不同程度的下滑，北美下滑幅度最大，同比下滑10.11%；海底捞餐厅同店销售 额同比增长2.27%，除东南亚市场外，各市场均有所增 ...

Core Insights - Teh Hai International (09658.HK) reported a revenue of $214 million for Q3, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, but the operating profit decreased by 15.4% to approximately $12.6 million, although it showed a quarter-on-quarter improvement of 240.5% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders fell dramatically by 90.4% to $3.609 million, primarily due to a significant increase in exchange losses compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Revenue Breakdown - The core revenue driver remains the dining operations, contributing $201 million in Q3, a 5.1% increase year-on-year, driven by store expansion and increased customer traffic and table turnover [2] - The average customer spending decreased to $24.6, down from $25.8, reflecting a 4.6% decline, attributed to pricing adjustments and marketing strategies aimed at increasing customer frequency and traffic [3][4] Customer Traffic and Store Expansion - The total customer traffic for Q3 exceeded 8.1 million, a 9.5% increase from 7.4 million in the same period last year, with an average table turnover rate of 3.9 times per day, slightly up from 3.8 times [4] - The company opened 10 new restaurants this year, bringing the total to 126, with plans for more openings despite some delays due to property handover and construction timelines [5] Delivery and Other Revenue Streams - The delivery business showed significant growth, achieving $4.4 million in revenue, a 69.2% increase year-on-year, as the company expanded its delivery channels and product offerings [6] - Other business segments generated $8.9 million in revenue, up 74.5%, driven by increased sales of hot pot condiments and contributions from the "Pomegranate Plan" which incubates new restaurant brands [7] Brand Development and Localization - The "Pomegranate Plan" aims to develop independent new brands outside of the hot pot segment, with successful launches in Canada and ongoing projects in Indonesia, Vietnam, and Japan [8] - The localization rate of customers has been steadily increasing, with over 90% in Asian markets like Korea and Indonesia, while North America shows a localization rate of 40%-50% [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Super Hi International Holding [2][15]. Core Views - The company has shown improvement in table turnover rates and is steadily advancing its multi-brand strategy. The revenue for 3Q25 reached USD 210 million, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 90.4% to USD 3.609 million due to increased foreign exchange losses [3][4][15]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are maintained at USD 856 million, USD 952 million, and USD 1.064 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 10.0%, 11.2%, and 11.7% respectively [8][15]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be USD 40 million in 2025, USD 50 million in 2026, and USD 70 million in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 102.4%, 23.5%, and 25.6% [8][15]. - The gross profit margin is projected to be around 66.3% in 2025, with net profit margins of 5.2%, 5.7%, and 6.4% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8][15]. Operational Insights - The company’s restaurant operations generated USD 200 million in revenue for 3Q25, a 5.1% increase year-on-year, driven by network expansion and enhanced brand influence [4][5]. - The takeaway business saw significant growth, with revenue increasing by 69.2% to USD 4.4 million, attributed to product optimization and strategic marketing collaborations [4][5]. - The average table turnover rate improved to 3.9 times per day, reflecting the effectiveness of the company's customer and employee incentive strategies [5][6]. Market Position and Valuation - The target price is set at HKD 18.4, corresponding to a market capitalization of HKD 11.98 billion, based on a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 1.8 [2][15]. - The company’s current market capitalization is approximately HKD 9.25 billion, with a share price of HKD 14.22 as of November 27, 2025 [2][15].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $214 million for the three months ending September 30, 2025, representing a 7.8% increase compared to $199 million in the same period of 2024 [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from Haidilao restaurants was $200.7 million, up 5.1% from $190.9 million in 2024, driven by business expansion and enhanced brand influence, as well as efforts to increase customer traffic and table turnover [1] - The takeaway business generated $4.4 million, a significant increase of 69.2% from $2.6 million in 2024, attributed to continuous optimization of takeaway products and services based on market demand, along with strategic marketing collaborations with local takeaway platforms [1] - Other business revenue reached $8.9 million, up 74.5% from $5.1 million in 2024, primarily due to the growing popularity of hot pot condiments among local customers and retailers, and ongoing exploration of second brand restaurants under the "Pomegranate Plan" diversification strategy [1] Profitability - The company reported a profit of $3.6 million for the period, down from $37.7 million in the same quarter of 2024, with the decrease largely attributed to a significant increase in foreign exchange losses, which rose by $31.7 million compared to the previous year, mainly due to currency fluctuations [2]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $397 million in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.79%, and a net profit of $28 million, indicating a return to profitability due to favorable exchange rate fluctuations [1] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of $201 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.26%, with a net profit of $16 million, also showing a return to profitability [1] Business Performance - Revenue growth across all business lines: restaurant operations, takeout, and other businesses increased by 5.9%, 48.1%, and 25% respectively in H1 2025 [1] - Restaurant revenue growth was driven by store expansion and enhanced brand influence, alongside improved customer traffic and table turnover rates [1] - The takeout business saw significant growth due to product and service optimization based on market demand and strategic marketing collaborations with local delivery platforms [1] - Other income, primarily from hot pot condiments and sub-brands, benefited from rising local customer preferences and the ongoing "Pomegranate Plan" for second brand restaurant incubation [1] Operational Metrics - Average table turnover rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 3.9 times per day in H1 2025, with East Asia showing a notable improvement of 0.8 percentage points to 4.9 times per day [1] - Overall average revenue per restaurant per day grew by 2.9% year-on-year, despite a 1.6% decline in average customer spending due to pricing adjustments [1] - Same-store sales increased by 3% year-on-year, with the exception of Southeast Asia, which saw a decline of 1.2% [1] Profitability Analysis - Operating profit margins faced pressure due to strategic decisions, with raw material and consumables costs rising by 0.4 percentage points to 34%, and employee costs increasing by 1.2 percentage points to 35.3% [1] - The overall operating profit margin decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 3%, attributed to customer discounts from quality-price ratio strategies and the need for improved management practices [1] Expansion and Brand Development - The company opened 8 new Haidilao restaurants in H1 2025 while closing 4 underperforming locations, resulting in a total of 126 restaurants by the end of Q2 2025, an increase of 4 from the previous year [2] - The company is actively developing second brands across various categories, including hot pot, barbecue, and fast food [2] Future Outlook - The company is well-positioned in the international dining market, benefiting from its unique service model, strong brand presence, and rapid localization capabilities [2] - Forecasts for net profit from 2025 to 2027 are projected at $46.81 million, $59.08 million, and $70.67 million respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][9]. Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of $397 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.79%, and net profit of $28 million, marking a return to profitability due to favorable exchange rate changes [2][6]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the international Chinese dining market, benefiting from its unique service model, strong brand power, and rapid localization capabilities [2][6]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of $46.81 million, $59.08 million, and $70.67 million for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [2][6]. Revenue Breakdown - In the first half of 2025, revenue from the company's hot pot restaurants, takeout business, and other segments grew by 5.9%, 48.1%, and 25% year-on-year, respectively [9]. - The increase in restaurant revenue is attributed to store expansion and enhanced brand influence, while the takeout business saw significant growth due to product optimization and strategic marketing partnerships [9]. Operational Performance - The average table turnover rate improved by 0.1 percentage points to 3.9 times per day, with the East Asia market showing a notable increase of 0.8 percentage points to 4.9 times per day [9]. - Overall same-store sales increased by 3% year-on-year, with the Southeast Asia region experiencing a decline of 1.2% [9]. Profitability Analysis - The company's operating profit margin decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 3% in the first half of 2025, influenced by rising costs of materials and labor [9]. - The company has been adjusting pricing strategies to enhance value for customers, which has impacted profit margins [9]. Store Expansion - The company opened 8 new hot pot restaurants in the first half of 2025, while closing 4 underperforming locations [9]. - As of the end of Q2 2025, the company operated 126 hot pot restaurants, an increase of 4 from the previous year [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of $198 million, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, and a net profit of $12 million, benefiting from a decrease in foreign exchange losses, thus turning from a loss to a profit [2][6]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the international Chinese dining market, leveraging its unique service model, strong brand power, and rapid localization capabilities [2][6]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of $44.06 million, $55.15 million, and $63.41 million from 2025 to 2027, indicating strong growth potential in the hot pot industry internationally [2][6]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue from its main business segments in Q1 2025 showed steady growth: Haidilao restaurant operations increased by 4.5%, takeaway business by 37.9%, and other businesses by 22.7% [6]. - The average daily sales per restaurant reached $17,800, a year-on-year increase of 1.71%, while same-store sales grew by 0.34% [6]. - The overall customer spending per visit decreased by 2.8% to $24.20, attributed to the company's pricing adjustments and menu changes [6]. Store Expansion and Network - The company opened 4 new Haidilao restaurants in Q1 2025, while closing 3 underperforming locations, bringing the total number of stores to 123 [6]. - The company continues to expand its presence in Southeast Asia, East Asia, North America, and other regions, with a net increase of 1 store in each of these areas compared to the same period in 2024 [6].