Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks have expanded and volatility has intensified. The asphalt futures market has followed the fluctuations of crude oil. The demand in various regions has gradually weakened with the cooling of the weather and the approaching of the Spring Festival. However, supported by low inventory and low supply, the spot prices in various regions have remained basically stable, and the supply-demand imbalance in the off - season is becoming more apparent. There are still concerns about the long - term raw material shortage and cost increase in asphalt production [4]. - The trading strategies are as follows: for single - side trading, expect high - level fluctuations and consider going long on BU2606 at low prices; for arbitrage, pay attention to the spread between going long on BU and going short on LU; for options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Geopolitical risks lead to increased volatility in the asphalt market, which follows crude oil prices. Demand weakens in the off - season, but low inventory and supply support stable spot prices. There are concerns about future raw material shortages and cost increases [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Single - side trading: high - level fluctuations, go long on BU2606 at low prices; Arbitrage: focus on the spread of going long on BU and going short on LU; Options: wait - and - see [6]. 2. Core Logic Analysis - **Southern Demand and Refinery Price Support**: There is still demand in the South, leading some refineries to support prices. This week, the asphalt price in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while prices in other regions increased by 5 - 115 yuan/ton. The cost of crude oil and the asphalt futures market are performing well, and there is some rush - work demand in the South. Low refinery operating rates are beneficial for social inventory sales [12]. - **Stable Spot Prices and Rising Futures Prices**: Geopolitical instability makes the crude oil cost fluctuate widely. Chinese refineries are seeking alternative raw materials, leading to an increase in feedstock costs. As of February 6, the theoretical processing profit of asphalt refineries was - 78.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41.6 yuan/ton from last week. This week, the asphalt futures price rose in a volatile manner, while the spot market price remained stable [15]. - **Slight Decline in Asphalt Operating Rate**: The overall asphalt operating rate decreased slightly. Different regions had different changes in operating rates due to factors such as production adjustments in individual refineries [17][18]. - **Low Refinery Inventory**: The refinery inventory remained at a low level. The inventory in different regions changed due to factors such as production, demand, and contract delivery [20][21]. - **Increased Social Inventory**: Social inventory increased steadily due to winter storage resource warehousing. However, there was still some rush - work demand in the South, which affected the local inventory level [23]. 3. Weekly Data Tracking - **Industrial Chain Data**: It includes data on spot and futures prices, spreads, and profits. For example, on February 6, 2026, the closing price of the asphalt main contract was 3386 yuan/ton, and the Brent 15:00 closing price was 68.36 US dollars/barrel. The operating rate of refineries was 31.62%, the refinery inventory rate was 23.95%, and the social inventory rate was 25.63% [26].

沥青周报 研究员：童川 期货从业证号：F3071222 投资咨询证号：Z0017010 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 10 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 百川盈孚统计，本周四国内沥青厂装置开工率为29.06%，较本周一下降2.85%；沥青总库存水平为24.36%，较本周一下 降0.37%；社会库存率为24.19%，较上周日下跌0.15%。前期油价偏弱，市场对沥青原料供应矛盾有所消化，叠加需求淡 季且沥青盘面裂解高位，沥青维持高位震荡格局。隔夜油价大涨，沥青成本端支撑明显，短期盘面预计高位震荡。 【策略】 单边：高位震荡。 套利：观望。 期权：观望。 (观点仅供参考，不作为买卖依据 ...

期货研究报告 | 商品研究 沥青供应端影响因素 ——沥青专题报告（三） 2025年7月4日 • 安婧 • anjing@cmschina.com.cn • 执业资格号Z0014623 沥青的转产工艺 数据来源： 《炼油厂总工艺流程设计 ➢ 沥青转产焦化料的原理：焦化料顾名 思义是指延迟焦化装置的原料，从左 图可知焦化料即是调和或未调和的 减 压渣油，并且由图可知延迟焦化装置 和沥青氧化 /调和装置的原料相同， 因此焦化料（减压渣油）若用于产沥 青则不能用于延迟焦化装置，使得两 条生产线存在"此消彼长"的关系。 ➢ 转产一般只发生在地方炼厂，因沥青 是地炼的主产品，沥青利润对地炼综 合利润起决定性作用，但对于主营炼 厂而言，沥青是其副产品，主营炼厂 的开工率 /产量主要考虑的是炼油综 合利润。 ➢ 由于产沥青的地炼通常加工的是中重 质高硫原油，因此这里的焦化料（减 压渣油）通常指的是高硫渣油。 ➢ 炼厂可根据沥青生产利润以及通过对 比沥青价格与焦化料价格来调节道路 》，招商期货 沥青的产量。 沥青供应影响因素分析——地炼利润 理论上，地炼沥青产量调整的逻辑推演： 1.首先，只有沥青生产利润>0时，炼厂才会生产沥 ...