1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The logic of raw material shortage continues to ferment, and prices in the polyester industry follow the upward trend of costs. Currently, the shortage of raw materials is the dominant factor, and prices are expected to rise further, but short - term over - increase requires attention to risks [11][12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation PX - **Price Performance**: The 05 contract rose 1,348 yuan last week to 10,018 yuan. The spot CFR China price rose 250 US dollars to 1,305 US dollars. The spot conversion basis rose 193 yuan, reaching 107 yuan as of March 13. The 5 - 7 spread rose 114 yuan, reaching 366 yuan as of March 13 [11]. - **Supply**: The Chinese load was 84.7%, a 5.7% week - on - week decrease; the Asian load was 76.9%, a 6.3% week - on - week decrease. Many domestic and overseas devices reduced their loads. In March, it entered the maintenance season, and due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, there was a large gap in Asian crude oil and naphtha, with the load expected to decline significantly [11]. - **Demand**: The PTA load was 77.3%, a 3.7% week - on - week decrease. Some PTA devices unexpectedly stopped or reduced their loads, but the expected impact time was short [11]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory at the end of January was 4.64 million tons, with a de - stocking of 10,000 tons month - on - month. In February, it was expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and in March, it was expected to turn into a de - stocking pattern [11]. - **Valuation and Cost**: As of March 12, PXN was 328 US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 47 US dollars; the naphtha spread rose 75 US dollars to 231 US dollars, and crude oil prices rose significantly [11]. - **Summary**: PXN rose last week. Due to the expected raw material gap, the Asian load continued to decline, supply tightened, and naphtha spreads and crude oil costs rapidly pushed up prices. Currently, the PX load is expected to further decline to a low level, while the short - term maintenance expectation of downstream PTA is low, and the overall load center rises. In March, PX gradually enters the de - stocking cycle. The valuation is currently moderately low, and the inventory is expected to decline significantly [11]. PTA - **Price Performance**: The 05 contract rose 864 yuan last week to 6,934 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 1,230 yuan to 7,030 yuan. The spot basis rose 9 yuan, reaching - 28 yuan as of March 13. The 5 - 9 spread rose 88 yuan, reaching 288 yuan as of March 13 [12]. - **Supply**: The PTA load was 77.3%, a 3.7% week - on - week decrease. Some PTA devices unexpectedly stopped or reduced their loads, but the expected impact time was short [12]. - **Demand**: The polyester load was 86.7%, a 2.6% week - on - week increase. The terminal's finished product inventory decreased, and orders increased. However, the overall polyester load is expected to decrease due to the rapid increase in raw material prices [12]. - **Inventory**: As of March 6, the overall social inventory of PTA (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.623 million tons, with a week - on - week inventory accumulation of 26,000 tons. The polyester load is expected to be limited, and the PTA load is expected to be high, so the subsequent inventory is expected to remain in a relatively loose balance [12]. - **Profit**: The spot processing fee decreased by 70 yuan to 226 yuan/ton as of March 12; the disk processing fee decreased by 51 yuan to 295 yuan/ton [12]. - **Summary**: The PTA processing fee was slightly compressed last week. The PTA pattern continued to accumulate inventory, and the price increase was weaker than that of raw materials, resulting in a passive compression of valuation. In the future, as the maintenance expectation decreases, PTA is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is expected to remain difficult to rise [12]. MEG - **Price Performance**: The 05 contract rose 352 yuan last week to 4,729 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 583 yuan to 4,715 yuan. The basis decreased by 71 yuan, reaching - 82 yuan as of March 13. The 5 - 9 spread rose 5 yuan, reaching 65 yuan as of March 13 [13]. - **Supply**: The EG load was 66.8%, a 5.7% week - on - week decrease. Many domestic and overseas devices reduced their loads. The expected arrival volume last week was 78,000 tons, and the import volume in December was 840,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 260,000 tons [13]. - **Demand**: The polyester load was 86.7%, a 2.6% week - on - week increase. The terminal's finished product inventory decreased, and orders increased. However, the overall polyester load is expected to decrease due to the rapid increase in raw material prices [13]. - **Inventory**: As of March 9, the port inventory was 1.068 million tons, with a week - on - week inventory accumulation of 66,000 tons; the downstream factory inventory days were 15.1 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.4 days. In the short term, the arrival volume is expected to decrease, and the departure volume is expected to increase, and the port inventory is expected to be de - stocked. Overseas, due to load reduction and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, China's imports are expected to decline significantly, and the ethylene - based load in China is expected to decline significantly, turning into a de - stocking pattern [13]. - **Valuation and Cost**: The naphtha - based profit decreased by 693 yuan to - 2,488 yuan/ton, the domestic ethylene - based profit decreased by 128 yuan to - 1,047 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased to 661 yuan/ton. The cost of ethylene was 1,000 US dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines was 580 yuan/ton. The coal cost decreased, and ethylene prices rose significantly. The current overall valuation is at a historical low [13]. - **Summary**: In terms of industry fundamentals, the number of overseas device overhauls has increased significantly, and China is gradually entering the maintenance season. Due to the lack of Middle - East crude oil, the load is expected to continue to decline, and imports are expected to decline significantly starting from March. The downstream is gradually recovering from the off - season, and the port inventory will gradually turn into a de - stocking pattern. The current valuation of oil - chemical profits has dropped to a historical low level. There is an expectation of significant import contraction driving de - stocking, and there is a large expectation of further production cuts in the oil - chemical industry [13]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **PX**: The term structure, CFR China price, basis, and spreads are presented through multiple charts. The trading volume and open interest of active contracts and total contracts are also shown [30][33][34]. - **PTA**: The term structure, East China market price, basis, and spreads are presented through multiple charts. The trading volume and open interest of active contracts and total contracts are also shown [38][42][45]. - **MEG**: The term structure, East China market price, basis, and spreads are presented through multiple charts. The trading volume and open interest of active contracts and total contracts are also shown [48][58][61]. - **Overseas Commodity Prices**: The overseas prices of PX, MEG, and PTA FOB China are presented through charts [64]. 3.3. PX Fundamentals - **New Capacity**: Domestic new capacities include Fuxia Dahua (technical transformation) with 300,000 tons in early 2026, Huajin Aramco with 2 million tons in Q3 2026, and Yantai Yulongdao with 3 million tons from the end of 2026 to 2027. Overseas, IOC in India will have 800,000 tons in H2 2026 [68]. - **Supply**: The Chinese and Asian PX operating rates have decreased significantly. Many devices at home and abroad have reduced their loads [71]. - **Import**: The import volume in December increased significantly. The import volumes from South Korea, Japan, and Chinese Taipei are presented through charts [74][75]. - **Inventory**: The social total inventory and warehouse receipts are presented through charts [77]. - **Cost and Profit**: PXN fluctuated upward, short - process profits declined, and the naphtha spread soared. The relevant data of aromatics blending for oil, such as octane value, aromatics spreads, and blending relative value, are also presented through charts [79][86][95]. 3.4. PTA Fundamentals - **New Capacity**: In 2025, Honggang Petrochemical (Phase III), Hailun Petrochemical 3, and Dushan Energy 4 added new capacities. In 2026, India Oil and GAIL in India will add new capacities [118]. - **Supply**: The PTA load decreased slightly. Some devices unexpectedly stopped or reduced their loads [121]. - **Export**: The total export volume and exports to India, Turkey, and Vietnam are presented through charts [124]. - **Inventory**: The inventory continued to accumulate. The terminal inventory, in - plant inventory available days, and total warehouse receipts are presented through charts [126][127]. - **Profit**: The spot and disk processing fees decreased, and the acetic acid cost is presented through charts [128]. 3.5. MEG Fundamentals - **New Capacity**: In 2025, Zhengda Kai Phase I, Yulong Petrochemical 1, and Yichang (Kunpeng Phase I) added new capacities. In 2026, BASF, Tianying, Huajin Aramco, and Zhongsha Gulei will add new capacities [131]. - **Supply**: The MEG operating rate decreased. The operating rates of synthetic gas - based and ethylene - based production are presented through charts [134]. - **Import**: The import volume in December increased significantly. The import volumes from Canada, Saudi Arabia, and the United States are presented through charts [135][137][142]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory continued to accumulate this week (the statistical caliber changed). The port inventory, polyester factory EG inventory, factory inventory, and registered warehouse receipts are presented through charts [145][146]. - **Cost**: Coal prices fluctuated, ethylene prices rebounded significantly, and ethane prices rebounded. The relevant prices are presented through charts [152][153]. - **Profit**: The valuation is at a historical low. The profits of naphtha - based, ethylene - based, coal - based production, and import ethane production are presented through charts [154][158][160]. 3.6. Polyester and Terminal - **Polyester New Capacity**: Many polyester companies have new capacity plans in 2026, including polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, polyester chips, and polyester bottle chips [170][171]. - **Polyester Supply**: The operating rate seasonally rebounded. The downstream proportion and operating rates of polyester, polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester bottle chips are presented through charts [173][177]. - **Polyester Export**: The export data in December increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The export volumes of polyester, filament, bottle chips, and staple fiber are presented through charts [179][180]. - **Polyester Inventory**: The filament inventory increased. The inventories of POY, FDY, DTY, staple fiber, and bottle chips are presented through charts [182][183][185]. - **Polyester Profit**: The filament profit is good, the bottle chip profit increased significantly, and the staple fiber profit fluctuated. The relevant profit data are presented through charts [192][195]. - **Terminal**: The operating rate rebounded. The operating rates of looms, texturing machines, polyester yarn, and printing and dyeing are presented through charts [197][198][199]. - **Terminal Orders and Inventory**: Orders increased, inventory decreased, and raw material inventory increased. The relevant data are presented through charts [203][204]. - **Terminal Light Textile City**: The weekly average trading volume increased [206]. - **Terminal Textile and Apparel and Soft Drinks**: The growth rate of domestic demand for textile and apparel decreased, and exports were weak. The relevant data are presented through charts [208][209]. - **Terminal US Apparel Inventory**: The wholesale inventory is lower than the pre - pandemic high. The relevant data are presented through charts [211][212][213].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks have expanded and volatility has intensified. The asphalt futures market has followed the fluctuations of crude oil. The demand in various regions has gradually weakened with the cooling of the weather and the approaching of the Spring Festival. However, supported by low inventory and low supply, the spot prices in various regions have remained basically stable, and the supply-demand imbalance in the off - season is becoming more apparent. There are still concerns about the long - term raw material shortage and cost increase in asphalt production [4]. - The trading strategies are as follows: for single - side trading, expect high - level fluctuations and consider going long on BU2606 at low prices; for arbitrage, pay attention to the spread between going long on BU and going short on LU; for options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Geopolitical risks lead to increased volatility in the asphalt market, which follows crude oil prices. Demand weakens in the off - season, but low inventory and supply support stable spot prices. There are concerns about future raw material shortages and cost increases [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Single - side trading: high - level fluctuations, go long on BU2606 at low prices; Arbitrage: focus on the spread of going long on BU and going short on LU; Options: wait - and - see [6]. 2. Core Logic Analysis - **Southern Demand and Refinery Price Support**: There is still demand in the South, leading some refineries to support prices. This week, the asphalt price in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while prices in other regions increased by 5 - 115 yuan/ton. The cost of crude oil and the asphalt futures market are performing well, and there is some rush - work demand in the South. Low refinery operating rates are beneficial for social inventory sales [12]. - **Stable Spot Prices and Rising Futures Prices**: Geopolitical instability makes the crude oil cost fluctuate widely. Chinese refineries are seeking alternative raw materials, leading to an increase in feedstock costs. As of February 6, the theoretical processing profit of asphalt refineries was - 78.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41.6 yuan/ton from last week. This week, the asphalt futures price rose in a volatile manner, while the spot market price remained stable [15]. - **Slight Decline in Asphalt Operating Rate**: The overall asphalt operating rate decreased slightly. Different regions had different changes in operating rates due to factors such as production adjustments in individual refineries [17][18]. - **Low Refinery Inventory**: The refinery inventory remained at a low level. The inventory in different regions changed due to factors such as production, demand, and contract delivery [20][21]. - **Increased Social Inventory**: Social inventory increased steadily due to winter storage resource warehousing. However, there was still some rush - work demand in the South, which affected the local inventory level [23]. 3. Weekly Data Tracking - **Industrial Chain Data**: It includes data on spot and futures prices, spreads, and profits. For example, on February 6, 2026, the closing price of the asphalt main contract was 3386 yuan/ton, and the Brent 15:00 closing price was 68.36 US dollars/barrel. The operating rate of refineries was 31.62%, the refinery inventory rate was 23.95%, and the social inventory rate was 25.63% [26].