Group 1 - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has announced adjustments to the trading limits and fee standards for coking coal futures contract 2601, effective from August 15, 2025 [1] - For non-futures company members or clients, the daily opening position limit for coking coal futures contract 2601 will be set at 1,000 lots, while for contract 2509 it will be 500 lots, and for other contracts, it will be 2,000 lots [1] - The daily opening position refers to the total number of buy and sell opening positions in a single contract on that day, with no limits on hedging and market-making transactions [1] Group 2 - Starting from August 18, 2025, the transaction fee for speculative intraday trading of coking coal futures contract 2601 will be adjusted from 0.01% to 0.02% of the transaction amount [1] - The fee standards for non-intraday speculative trading and hedging transactions will remain unchanged [1] - The exchange will adjust trading limits based on market conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The macro trading sentiment has cooled down, leading to profit-taking and a significant decline in commodity futures, with several key commodities hitting their daily limit down [1]. Group 1: Commodity Performance - Soda ash main contract 2509 hit the limit down, closing at 1316 CNY/ton, with a decline of 8.04% and an increase in open interest by over 46,600 contracts compared to the previous day [2]. - Glass main contract 2509 also hit the limit down, closing at 1223 CNY/ton, down by 9%, with a decrease in open interest of over 78,000 contracts and a net outflow of 955 million CNY [2]. - Lithium carbonate main contract 2509 closed at 73,120 CNY/ton, down by 7.98%, with a reduction in open interest of over 112,000 contracts and a net outflow of 2.374 billion CNY [2]. - Industrial silicon main contract 2509 closed at 8,915 CNY/ton, down by 8%, with a decrease in open interest of over 44,000 contracts and a net outflow of 656 million CNY [2]. - Coking coal main contract 2509 hit the limit down, closing at 1,100.5 CNY/ton, down by 11%, with a reduction in open interest of over 126,000 contracts and a net outflow of 2.666 billion CNY [3]. - Coking coal had previously experienced four consecutive trading days of limit up before this decline [3]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Outlook - The analysis from Zhonghui Futures indicates that the short-term capital situation is overly concentrated, leading to increased volatility in coking coal prices. The main focus for future trading will be on the support level around 950-960 CNY/ton [3]. - There is anticipation of a potential second upward trend in coking coal prices if upcoming domestic policy announcements exceed expectations; otherwise, prices are likely to revert to fundamental industry logic [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the "anti-involution" policy on supply contraction expectations in various industries, particularly focusing on coal and other commodities, which have shown significant price increases in the futures market due to anticipated production restrictions [1][7][12]. Group 1: Commodity Price Movements - Coal futures, particularly the焦煤期货主力2509 contract, surged by 11% on July 23, with a monthly increase exceeding 34% [1]. - Other commodities have also seen price increases, with多晶硅2509 rising over 50% and焦炭2509 increasing nearly 20% since July [3]. - The glass futures market has experienced a rise of approximately 20% since July, while the actual spot price of glass has only increased by about 7% [6][15]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Policy Implications - The "anti-involution" trend is spreading from the photovoltaic and steel industries to coal and building materials, indicating a broader market response [5]. - The current market reaction is primarily speculative, with actual spot markets not reflecting the same intensity as futures markets [6][17]. - The central government's focus on eliminating low-price competition and promoting quality improvements is expected to lead to more structured production policies [9][10]. Group 3: Future Expectations and Uncertainties - The implementation of stricter production regulations could lead to a significant reduction in coal output, with estimates suggesting a potential decrease of 43 million tons in Inner Mongolia alone [10]. - The upcoming release of new policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries, including steel and non-ferrous metals, is anticipated to further influence commodity prices [11][12]. - The actual impact of the "anti-involution" policies on supply and pricing remains uncertain, with market participants closely monitoring the situation [17].

国投期货研究院 . 以下文章来源于国投期货研究院 ，作者曹颖 此前焦煤期货2509合约价格曾一度下跌逼近700元一线，按照7.19的美元汇率计算，该跌幅也已经把三季度蒙5原煤长协6美金左右 的预期降幅交易得较为充分。所以参照蒙古煤长协定价来看，焦煤期价此前的下跌节奏也是较为超前的。 二、国产焦煤供应有所下滑，但降幅不够明显 国内供应端，虽然整体焦煤矿供应仍处于高位，但已经连续数周持续小幅减产，其中有个别大矿顶仓减产，部分煤矿因事故停产整 顿，还有小部分民营矿因为亏损减产。虽然大部分煤矿并未亏损到现金流成本线，但随着炼焦煤估值的进一步下移，供应端会随之 发生进一步压缩，只是目前总体减产规模还不够显著，有待进一步累积。 国投期货研究院团队倾力打造，专注热门期货品种分析。 文 | 曹颖 来源 | 国投期货研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 近期在两国贸易关系缓和，以及焦煤剧烈反弹的双重带动下，黑色整体呈现出一波共振反弹行情。尤其前期跌幅较大的焦煤，在近期呈现出迅猛的 反弹，超乎很多市场参与者的预料。那么如何评估这一波焦煤上涨行情的驱动及其可持续性，我们尝试从市场的一些边际变化上寻得端倪。 一、蒙古解除总 ...