Group 1 - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has announced adjustments to the trading limits and fee standards for coking coal futures contract 2601, effective from August 15, 2025 [1] - For non-futures company members or clients, the daily opening position limit for coking coal futures contract 2601 will be set at 1,000 lots, while for contract 2509 it will be 500 lots, and for other contracts, it will be 2,000 lots [1] - The daily opening position refers to the total number of buy and sell opening positions in a single contract on that day, with no limits on hedging and market-making transactions [1] Group 2 - Starting from August 18, 2025, the transaction fee for speculative intraday trading of coking coal futures contract 2601 will be adjusted from 0.01% to 0.02% of the transaction amount [1] - The fee standards for non-intraday speculative trading and hedging transactions will remain unchanged [1] - The exchange will adjust trading limits based on market conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The macro trading sentiment has cooled down, leading to profit-taking and a significant decline in commodity futures, with several key commodities hitting their daily limit down [1]. Group 1: Commodity Performance - Soda ash main contract 2509 hit the limit down, closing at 1316 CNY/ton, with a decline of 8.04% and an increase in open interest by over 46,600 contracts compared to the previous day [2]. - Glass main contract 2509 also hit the limit down, closing at 1223 CNY/ton, down by 9%, with a decrease in open interest of over 78,000 contracts and a net outflow of 955 million CNY [2]. - Lithium carbonate main contract 2509 closed at 73,120 CNY/ton, down by 7.98%, with a reduction in open interest of over 112,000 contracts and a net outflow of 2.374 billion CNY [2]. - Industrial silicon main contract 2509 closed at 8,915 CNY/ton, down by 8%, with a decrease in open interest of over 44,000 contracts and a net outflow of 656 million CNY [2]. - Coking coal main contract 2509 hit the limit down, closing at 1,100.5 CNY/ton, down by 11%, with a reduction in open interest of over 126,000 contracts and a net outflow of 2.666 billion CNY [3]. - Coking coal had previously experienced four consecutive trading days of limit up before this decline [3]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Outlook - The analysis from Zhonghui Futures indicates that the short-term capital situation is overly concentrated, leading to increased volatility in coking coal prices. The main focus for future trading will be on the support level around 950-960 CNY/ton [3]. - There is anticipation of a potential second upward trend in coking coal prices if upcoming domestic policy announcements exceed expectations; otherwise, prices are likely to revert to fundamental industry logic [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the "anti-involution" policy on supply contraction expectations in various industries, particularly focusing on coal and other commodities, which have shown significant price increases in the futures market due to anticipated production restrictions [1][7][12]. Group 1: Commodity Price Movements - Coal futures, particularly the焦煤期货主力2509 contract, surged by 11% on July 23, with a monthly increase exceeding 34% [1]. - Other commodities have also seen price increases, with多晶硅2509 rising over 50% and焦炭2509 increasing nearly 20% since July [3]. - The glass futures market has experienced a rise of approximately 20% since July, while the actual spot price of glass has only increased by about 7% [6][15]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Policy Implications - The "anti-involution" trend is spreading from the photovoltaic and steel industries to coal and building materials, indicating a broader market response [5]. - The current market reaction is primarily speculative, with actual spot markets not reflecting the same intensity as futures markets [6][17]. - The central government's focus on eliminating low-price competition and promoting quality improvements is expected to lead to more structured production policies [9][10]. Group 3: Future Expectations and Uncertainties - The implementation of stricter production regulations could lead to a significant reduction in coal output, with estimates suggesting a potential decrease of 43 million tons in Inner Mongolia alone [10]. - The upcoming release of new policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries, including steel and non-ferrous metals, is anticipated to further influence commodity prices [11][12]. - The actual impact of the "anti-involution" policies on supply and pricing remains uncertain, with market participants closely monitoring the situation [17].

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in coking coal prices is driven by improved trade relations between two countries and a sharp recovery in coking coal prices, which has exceeded market expectations. The sustainability of this price increase needs to be evaluated based on marginal changes in the market [1]. Group 1: Mongolian Coal Supply Changes - The dismissal of Mongolia's Prime Minister has raised concerns about potential changes in coal export policies, with some market participants anticipating a 20% increase in coal export resource tax [2]. - Currently, there are no adjustments to Mongolia's coal policies, but the supply of Mongolian coal is expected to decrease due to the high cost of coal and recent price drops [2][4]. Group 2: Domestic Coking Coal Supply - Domestic coking coal supply remains high, but there has been a slight reduction in production due to some major mines cutting output and minor private mines reducing production due to losses [5][6]. - The average profitability of coking coal mines is under pressure, with some mines nearing breakeven points, indicating that significant supply reductions may require further price declines [6][8]. Group 3: Demand Observations - Despite concerns about seasonal declines in steel demand, iron output remains high at around 2.4 million tons per day, supporting strong procurement of raw materials [9][10]. - The price of thermal coal has stabilized around 619 RMB/ton, with significant year-to-date declines, which may provide some support for coking coal valuations as the consumption season approaches [11]. Group 4: Coking Coal Market Summary - The overall trend indicates that while demand for coking coal may have peaked, supply reductions are marginal and primarily driven by low valuations. The recent price surge is seen as a correction rather than a reversal signal [12].