Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, mid-term bearish [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, mid-term bearish [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical situation in Iran is currently under control, but tensions remain, and short-term oil prices may be repeatedly affected by news, with unclear direction for FU and LU [2] - The current fuel oil market has mixed long and short factors, with limited overall contradictions. The high-sulfur fuel oil market needs to focus on the drag of the falling crack spread in the US Gulf on the Asia-Pacific and domestic markets and the hedging of downstream refinery demand growth. The Iranian situation and supply are potential variables [2] - The low-sulfur fuel oil market has limited contradictions and drivers. The increased shipments from Kuwait and Nigeria, especially Kuwait's high shipments in January, will bring some local pressure. The support for low-sulfur fuel oil comes from the diversion of components by RFCC units [2] - The current fuel oil market shows a pattern of strong in the East and weak in the West. The widening of the East-West price difference will open the arbitrage window, leading to an increase in arbitrage cargo volume and potentially suppressing the Asia-Pacific and domestic markets [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.79% at 2,542 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.39% at 3,090 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, pay attention to the Iranian situation; mid-term bearish [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral; mid-term bearish [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, pay attention to the development of the Iranian situation; medium - term bearish [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, pay attention to the development of the Iranian situation; medium - term bearish [2] - Cross - variety: No rating [2] - Cross - period: No rating [2] - Spot - futures: No rating [2] - Options: No rating [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market drivers are currently unclear with a mix of bullish and bearish factors. The geopolitical premium has declined, and the cost - side drive for FU and LU prices has weakened again. The overall contradiction in the fuel oil market is limited. There are resistances above and supports below the market. The Iranian situation is uncertain and may repeatedly disturb the market [1]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the overall contradiction and drive are limited. The increase in shipments from Kuwait and Nigeria will bring local pressure, while the high premium of gasoline and diesel will support the market [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.12% at 2,538 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.07% at 3,060 yuan/ton [1]. - The Iranian situation is currently under control, not affecting oil supply, and the geopolitical premium has declined, weakening the cost - side drive for FU and LU prices [1]. - The fuel oil market has a mix of bullish and bearish factors with limited overall contradictions. Short - term attention should be paid to the drag of the decline in the cracking spread in the US Gulf on the Asia - Pacific and domestic markets and the potential increase in downstream refinery demand [1]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the increase in shipments from Kuwait and Nigeria, especially Kuwait's high shipments in January, will bring local pressure. The high premium of gasoline and diesel will support the market [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, pay attention to the development of the Iranian situation; medium - term bearish [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, pay attention to the development of the Iranian situation; medium - term bearish [2] - Cross - variety: No strategy [2] - Cross - period: No strategy [2] - Spot - futures: No strategy [2] - Options: No strategy [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Cross - variety: None - Cross - period: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the escalating domestic situation in Iran and the position adjustment of commodity index funds, oil prices are oscillating strongly in the short term but are highly influenced by news, with unclear direction for FU and LU. The fuel oil market has mixed long and short factors with limited overall contradictions. The sharp decline in the crack spread in the US Gulf has dragged down the Asia - Pacific and domestic markets. However, after domestic asphalt refineries consume their existing raw materials around March, high - sulfur fuel oil may fill some gaps, and the decline in the crack spread is beneficial for downstream demand. Iran's fuel oil shipments are showing signs of decline, with potential supply risks accumulating. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the overall contradictions and drivers are limited. Local supply may increase, but the high premiums of gasoline and diesel will support the market by diverting low - sulfur oil components [2] 3. Summary of Related Contents Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.53% at 2461 yuan/ton in the daytime session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.66% at 3066 yuan/ton [1] - Iran's high - sulfur fuel oil shipments may decline. Based on shipping schedule data, Iran's high - sulfur fuel oil shipments in January are expected to be 490,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 620,000 tons [2] Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil strategy: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil strategy: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, and options strategies: None [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: Go long on the spread of FU2511 - 2512 at low prices [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures rose 1.3% to 2,887 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 1.56% to 3,450 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices fluctuated strongly this week, with mixed long and short factors in the market. The short - term trend is still unclear, providing limited guidance for FU and LU [1] - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the market structure of high - sulfur fuel oil has strengthened marginally, and the previous supply pressure has eased. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil in the Middle East has significantly declined, but there is still room for growth in the future. The upward driving force of the high - sulfur fuel oil market may be limited, and it is currently in a relatively balanced state [1] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the local supply has increased significantly recently, but the overall supply pressure is limited. The trend of substitution of low - sulfur marine fuel demand share has not reversed, and there is still significant resistance above the market [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 1.3% at 2,887 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.56% at 3,450 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices showed a fluctuating upward trend this week, with mixed long and short factors in the market. The short - term trend is still unclear, providing limited guidance for FU and LU [1] - The market structure of high - sulfur fuel oil has strengthened marginally, and the previous supply pressure has eased. The net export volume of high - sulfur fuel oil in the Middle East in September is expected to be 1.21 million tons, a decrease of 1.21 million tons compared with August. However, there is still room for supply growth in the Middle East in the future, and the upward driving force of the high - sulfur fuel oil market may be limited [1] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the local supply has increased significantly due to the shutdown of the RFCC unit of the Nigerian Dangote refinery. However, the overall supply pressure is limited, and the resistance above the market is still large [1] Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: Go long on the spread of FU2511 - 2512 at low prices [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Charts - Multiple charts are provided, including those showing the spot prices, swap near - month contracts, and month - to - month spreads of Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils, as well as the closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of SHFE fuel oil and INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts [3] Researcher Information - The researchers are Pan Xiang and Kang Yuanning, with practice qualification numbers F3023104 and F3049404 respectively, and investment consulting numbers Z0013188 and Z0015842 respectively [37]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 5.06% at 2,907 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.7% at 3,526 yuan/ton [1]. - After continuous decline, crude oil prices show signs of stabilizing and rebounding, strengthening the cost - side support for fuel oil, but the oil market still faces downward pressure in the medium term [1]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the market structure of the outer - market has stabilized. Supply pressure in the Asia - Pacific region has eased marginally, and the internal - external price difference of FU has rebounded strongly. If oil prices continue to rebound, FU may perform relatively strongly in the sector [1]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the current market contradictions are limited. Overseas supply has recovered, and the outer - market has shown a marginal weakening trend. In the medium - term, the industry still faces contradictions such as demand share substitution and excess capacity [1]. - High - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term and face crude - oil end suppression in the medium term; low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be volatile in the short term and face crude - oil end suppression in the medium term. For cross - period trading, it is recommended to go long the spread of FU2510 - 2511 when the price is low [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Crude oil prices have signs of stabilizing and rebounding after continuous decline, but the oil market still faces medium - term downward pressure. The cost - side support for fuel oil has strengthened again [1]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the market structure has stabilized. Middle East and Singapore fuel oil inventories have declined, and the supply of arbitrage cargoes from the West has decreased. The potential delivery resources of domestic FU have been restricted, leading to a significant rebound in the internal - external price difference [1]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, domestic production remains low, but overseas supply has recovered. The outer - market has weakened marginally, and the industry faces medium - term contradictions such as demand share substitution and excess capacity [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term volatility is bullish, and medium - term faces crude - oil end suppression [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term volatility, and medium - term faces crude - oil end suppression [2]. - Cross - variety: No strategy [2]. - Cross - period: Go long the spread of FU2510 - 2511 when the price is low [2]. - Spot - futures: No strategy [2]. - Options: No strategy [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term market drivers are limited, and the market shows narrow - range fluctuations. The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.28% at 2,863 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.89% at 3,580 yuan/ton [1]. - Since the OPEC meeting, crude oil prices have shown a volatile and upward trend. The unilateral prices of FU and LU are supported by the cost side, but there is an expectation of a looser balance sheet in the medium - term crude oil market, which may limit the upside space of prices. The recent decline in oil prices also indicates that resistance has emerged after continuous rebounds, driving the market down [1]. - The current market structure of high - sulfur fuel oil is weak, with spot discounts, monthly spreads, and crack spreads continuously declining. Although there are still structural support factors, the crack spreads need to be further adjusted to attract the recovery of refinery demand. After sufficient adjustment, the market will regain support [1]. - The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil has been stable recently. The strong performance of overseas diesel provides some support, and the domestic production in the first half of the year decreased significantly year - on - year, resulting in limited overall supply pressure. However, the remaining production capacity is abundant, and the carbon - neutral trend in the shipping industry in the long - term will gradually replace the market share of low - sulfur fuel oil, suppressing the market outlook [1]. - Currently, the market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil is slightly stronger than that of high - sulfur fuel oil. The price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil has been widening recently, but the structural contradiction has not been completely reversed, and there is no room for a significant increase in the spread [2]. Group 3: Strategies - High - sulfur fuel oil: The market is expected to be volatile [3]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The market is expected to be volatile [3]. - Cross - variety: Short the FU crack spread (FU - Brent or FU - SC) on rallies [3]. - Cross - period: Gradually take profit on the previous FU reverse spread positions [3]. - Spot - futures: No strategy [3]. - Options: No strategy [3].