燃料油日报 | 2025-08-26 仓单压力边际缓和，FU盘面结构走强 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨5.06%，报2907元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨1.7%，报3526 元/吨。 在经历连续下跌后，原油价格出现企稳反弹迹象，燃料油成本端支撑再度增强，但油市中期依然面临下行压力， 需要保持谨慎。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，经历了近期基本面转弱与连续调整的阶段，外盘高硫燃料油市场结构已经有一定企稳 迹象。其中，中东与新加坡燃料油库存出现阶段性回落，西区套利船货量下降，亚太地区供应压力边际缓和。更 显著的变量在于，前期内盘FU受到潜在交割资源压制，对外盘价差收缩至极低位。上周美国对部分码头和仓储运 营商实施制裁，或导致高硫燃料油到港与交割受阻，周五开始FU内外价差大幅反弹，昨日延续强势，涨幅远超能 源板块其他品种。接下来如果油价持续反弹，FU在板块中表现或相对偏强。 策略 高硫方面：短期震荡偏强，中期面临原油端压制 低硫方面：短期震荡，中期面临原油端压制 跨品种：无 跨期：FU逢低正套（FU2510-2511） 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、制裁风险、原油价格大幅波动 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term market drivers are limited, and the market shows narrow - range fluctuations. The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.28% at 2,863 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.89% at 3,580 yuan/ton [1]. - Since the OPEC meeting, crude oil prices have shown a volatile and upward trend. The unilateral prices of FU and LU are supported by the cost side, but there is an expectation of a looser balance sheet in the medium - term crude oil market, which may limit the upside space of prices. The recent decline in oil prices also indicates that resistance has emerged after continuous rebounds, driving the market down [1]. - The current market structure of high - sulfur fuel oil is weak, with spot discounts, monthly spreads, and crack spreads continuously declining. Although there are still structural support factors, the crack spreads need to be further adjusted to attract the recovery of refinery demand. After sufficient adjustment, the market will regain support [1]. - The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil has been stable recently. The strong performance of overseas diesel provides some support, and the domestic production in the first half of the year decreased significantly year - on - year, resulting in limited overall supply pressure. However, the remaining production capacity is abundant, and the carbon - neutral trend in the shipping industry in the long - term will gradually replace the market share of low - sulfur fuel oil, suppressing the market outlook [1]. - Currently, the market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil is slightly stronger than that of high - sulfur fuel oil. The price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil has been widening recently, but the structural contradiction has not been completely reversed, and there is no room for a significant increase in the spread [2]. Group 3: Strategies - High - sulfur fuel oil: The market is expected to be volatile [3]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The market is expected to be volatile [3]. - Cross - variety: Short the FU crack spread (FU - Brent or FU - SC) on rallies [3]. - Cross - period: Gradually take profit on the previous FU reverse spread positions [3]. - Spot - futures: No strategy [3]. - Options: No strategy [3].