燃料油市场结构

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燃料油日报:高硫燃料油市场结构边际走强-20250925
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 05:38
昨日FU盘面出现大幅上涨,从背后驱动因素来看:一方面,原油价格在连续回调后反弹,对能源板块品种形成一 定提振;另一方面,站在燃料油自身基本面的角度,近期有边际改善的迹象,随着中东燃料油出口回落、炼厂端 需求小幅修复、伊朗与俄罗斯供应分别受到制裁与无人机袭击影响,燃料油供应压力有所缓和,裂解价差、月差、 现货贴水回升。此外,前日大鼎库(2.991万吨)仓单全部注销,FU仓单压力减轻,带动内外盘价差走阔,FU结构 受到额外支撑。 低硫燃料油方面,目前市场矛盾相对有限。近期尼日利亚Dangote炼厂由于RFCC装置停工而增加低硫燃料油出口, 关于装置重启暂时还没有确切消息,因此局部供应增量或持续。但与此同时,9月份西区套利船货量下滑,国产量 维持中低位,汽柴油溢价偏强分流低硫油组分,整体供应压力有限。 策略 高硫方面:短期中性,中期向下 低硫方面:短期中性,中期向下 跨品种:无 跨期:逢低多FU2511-2512价差(正套) 期现:无 期权:无 燃料油日报 | 2025-09-25 高硫燃料油市场结构边际走强 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨3.7%,报2860元/吨;INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨 ...
燃料油日报:高硫油市场结构延续弱势,低硫端利好同样有限-20250801
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 05:38
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term cost of fuel oil is strongly supported by the recent strong crude oil price, but the oil market may face a looser balance sheet in the medium term, and there is still resistance to the upside of oil prices if sanctions expectations are not fulfilled [1] - The high - sulfur fuel oil market is currently weak, with sufficient supply and high inventory. Demand lacks highlights except for power plant peak - season purchases. However, the shrinkage of the East - West spread may tighten arbitrage cargo supply and support the Asia - Pacific market in the short term. Structurally favorable factors may lead to a stronger market if refinery demand recovers significantly [1] - The low - sulfur fuel oil market has limited current benefits. The decline of Singapore diesel cracking may weaken support, and component supply is expected to increase. In the medium term, abundant remaining capacity may lead to increased supply, and the market share may be gradually replaced by the shipping industry's carbon - neutral trend [2] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.37% at 2933 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.38% at 3676 yuan/ton [1] - The high - sulfur fuel oil market has a weak fundamental situation, with a significant decline in cracking spreads from high levels, sufficient supply, and high inventory. Refinery demand has not shown large - scale improvement, but short - term support may come from reduced arbitrage cargo supply [1] - The low - sulfur fuel oil market has limited positive factors. The decline of Singapore diesel cracking may weaken support, and component supply is expected to increase. The market outlook is not optimistic due to abundant capacity and the carbon - neutral trend [2] Strategy - High - sulfur: Maintain an oscillatory view [3] - Low - sulfur: Maintain an oscillatory view [3] - Cross - variety: Appropriate profit - taking for previous short positions in FU cracking spreads (FU - Brent or FU - SC) [3] - Cross - period: Gradual profit - taking for previous FU reverse arbitrage positions [3] - Spot - futures: No strategy [3] - Options: No strategy [3]
燃料油日报:短期市场驱动有限,盘面窄幅波动-20250718
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 02:44
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term market drivers are limited, and the market shows narrow - range fluctuations. The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.28% at 2,863 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.89% at 3,580 yuan/ton [1]. - Since the OPEC meeting, crude oil prices have shown a volatile and upward trend. The unilateral prices of FU and LU are supported by the cost side, but there is an expectation of a looser balance sheet in the medium - term crude oil market, which may limit the upside space of prices. The recent decline in oil prices also indicates that resistance has emerged after continuous rebounds, driving the market down [1]. - The current market structure of high - sulfur fuel oil is weak, with spot discounts, monthly spreads, and crack spreads continuously declining. Although there are still structural support factors, the crack spreads need to be further adjusted to attract the recovery of refinery demand. After sufficient adjustment, the market will regain support [1]. - The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil has been stable recently. The strong performance of overseas diesel provides some support, and the domestic production in the first half of the year decreased significantly year - on - year, resulting in limited overall supply pressure. However, the remaining production capacity is abundant, and the carbon - neutral trend in the shipping industry in the long - term will gradually replace the market share of low - sulfur fuel oil, suppressing the market outlook [1]. - Currently, the market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil is slightly stronger than that of high - sulfur fuel oil. The price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil has been widening recently, but the structural contradiction has not been completely reversed, and there is no room for a significant increase in the spread [2]. Group 3: Strategies - High - sulfur fuel oil: The market is expected to be volatile [3]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The market is expected to be volatile [3]. - Cross - variety: Short the FU crack spread (FU - Brent or FU - SC) on rallies [3]. - Cross - period: Gradually take profit on the previous FU reverse spread positions [3]. - Spot - futures: No strategy [3]. - Options: No strategy [3].
燃料油日报:中东燃料油供应较多,高硫油市场结构受到压制-20250710
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 05:11
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Sideways [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Sideways [3] 2) Core Viewpoints - After the OPEC meeting's production increase was confirmed, crude oil prices remained firm, and the spot fundamentals were decent. The market expected that OPEC's actual production increase would be far less than the quota. With demand in the peak season, the pressure from new supply was limited. Thus, the unilateral prices of FU and LU were supported by the cost side, and there was limited downside in the short term [1]. - The high-sulfur fuel oil market structure was weak recently, with spot discounts, monthly spreads, and crack spreads declining, indicating relatively abundant spot supply. The demand for high-sulfur fuel oil might decline year-on-year, and Middle Eastern high-sulfur fuel oil shipments had increased significantly. The high-sulfur fuel oil crack spread might need further adjustment to attract incremental demand, and the market structure would find new support after full adjustment [1]. - In the short term, the supply pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil was limited, but there was no shortage expectation. From June, domestic low-sulfur fuel oil production might gradually recover from a low level, and Brazil's supply to the Asia-Pacific region had also increased. In the medium term, the carbon neutrality trend in the shipping industry would gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil. Overall, the low-sulfur fuel oil market lacked a continuous upward driver [2]. - Currently, the market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil was slightly stronger than that of high-sulfur fuel oil, but the structural contradiction had not completely reversed, and there was no room for a significant increase in the high-low sulfur spread [2]. 3) Strategy Summary - **Cross-variety**: Short the FU crack spread (FU-Brent or FU-SC) on rallies [3] - **Cross-period**: Short the FU2509 - FU2510 spread on rallies [3] - **Futures-spot**: None [3] - **Options**: None [3] 4) Market Data Charts - Charts related to Singapore high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil spot prices, swap near-month contracts, and near-month spreads, as well as domestic fuel oil FU and low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures contract closing prices, index closing prices, near-month contract prices, near-month spreads, and trading volume and open interest are provided [4]