燃料油日报 | 2025-08-01 高硫油市场结构延续弱势，低硫端利好同样有限 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.37%，报2933元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.38%，报3676 元/吨。 近日原油价格走势偏强，燃料油短期成本端支撑较为坚挺，但油市中期仍面临油市平衡表转松的预期，如果制裁 预期未兑现，则油价上方阻力仍存。 就高硫燃料油市场而言，当前基本面弱势运行，市场结构持续调整，裂解价差已经从高位显著回落，现货端供应 相对充裕，库存水平偏高。目前来看，在供应和库存较为充足的环境下，需求端除了发电厂旺季采购外缺乏亮点， 炼厂端需求尚未出现大规模改善的信号。但随着高硫燃料油东西区价差收缩至低位，套利船货供应量或有所收紧， 亚太市场短期有望获得一定支撑。中期来看，结构性利好因素并未完全消退，如果裂解价差调整充分，吸引炼厂 端需求大幅回升，可以关注市场结构再度走强的机会。 低硫燃料油方面，目前市场利好有限，新加坡柴油裂解有回落迹象，对低硫燃料油市场的支撑或有所减弱，组分 供应存在回升预期。中期来看，由于低硫燃料油剩余产能较为充裕，一旦裂解利润适宜将吸引供应释放，且航运 业碳中和趋势 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term market drivers are limited, and the market shows narrow - range fluctuations. The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.28% at 2,863 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.89% at 3,580 yuan/ton [1]. - Since the OPEC meeting, crude oil prices have shown a volatile and upward trend. The unilateral prices of FU and LU are supported by the cost side, but there is an expectation of a looser balance sheet in the medium - term crude oil market, which may limit the upside space of prices. The recent decline in oil prices also indicates that resistance has emerged after continuous rebounds, driving the market down [1]. - The current market structure of high - sulfur fuel oil is weak, with spot discounts, monthly spreads, and crack spreads continuously declining. Although there are still structural support factors, the crack spreads need to be further adjusted to attract the recovery of refinery demand. After sufficient adjustment, the market will regain support [1]. - The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil has been stable recently. The strong performance of overseas diesel provides some support, and the domestic production in the first half of the year decreased significantly year - on - year, resulting in limited overall supply pressure. However, the remaining production capacity is abundant, and the carbon - neutral trend in the shipping industry in the long - term will gradually replace the market share of low - sulfur fuel oil, suppressing the market outlook [1]. - Currently, the market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil is slightly stronger than that of high - sulfur fuel oil. The price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil has been widening recently, but the structural contradiction has not been completely reversed, and there is no room for a significant increase in the spread [2]. Group 3: Strategies - High - sulfur fuel oil: The market is expected to be volatile [3]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The market is expected to be volatile [3]. - Cross - variety: Short the FU crack spread (FU - Brent or FU - SC) on rallies [3]. - Cross - period: Gradually take profit on the previous FU reverse spread positions [3]. - Spot - futures: No strategy [3]. - Options: No strategy [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Sideways [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Sideways [3] 2) Core Viewpoints - After the OPEC meeting's production increase was confirmed, crude oil prices remained firm, and the spot fundamentals were decent. The market expected that OPEC's actual production increase would be far less than the quota. With demand in the peak season, the pressure from new supply was limited. Thus, the unilateral prices of FU and LU were supported by the cost side, and there was limited downside in the short term [1]. - The high-sulfur fuel oil market structure was weak recently, with spot discounts, monthly spreads, and crack spreads declining, indicating relatively abundant spot supply. The demand for high-sulfur fuel oil might decline year-on-year, and Middle Eastern high-sulfur fuel oil shipments had increased significantly. The high-sulfur fuel oil crack spread might need further adjustment to attract incremental demand, and the market structure would find new support after full adjustment [1]. - In the short term, the supply pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil was limited, but there was no shortage expectation. From June, domestic low-sulfur fuel oil production might gradually recover from a low level, and Brazil's supply to the Asia-Pacific region had also increased. In the medium term, the carbon neutrality trend in the shipping industry would gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil. Overall, the low-sulfur fuel oil market lacked a continuous upward driver [2]. - Currently, the market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil was slightly stronger than that of high-sulfur fuel oil, but the structural contradiction had not completely reversed, and there was no room for a significant increase in the high-low sulfur spread [2]. 3) Strategy Summary - **Cross-variety**: Short the FU crack spread (FU-Brent or FU-SC) on rallies [3] - **Cross-period**: Short the FU2509 - FU2510 spread on rallies [3] - **Futures-spot**: None [3] - **Options**: None [3] 4) Market Data Charts - Charts related to Singapore high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil spot prices, swap near-month contracts, and near-month spreads, as well as domestic fuel oil FU and low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures contract closing prices, index closing prices, near-month contract prices, near-month spreads, and trading volume and open interest are provided [4]