Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index within the next six months [2][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, with operating income reaching 5.526 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.01%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 397 million yuan, up 33.76% [4][10]. - The gross margin improved to 30.02%, reflecting a 0.79 percentage point increase year-on-year, driven by product mix enhancement and a decrease in raw milk prices [4][6]. - The company is focusing on low-temperature products as a strategic core, with direct-to-consumer (DTC) business as the primary growth engine, aiming to accelerate revenue growth through product innovation [8][10]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a net profit margin of 7.18%, an increase of 1.65 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to improved gross margins and reduced management expenses [4][5]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenues of 2.901 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.46%, with net profit rising by 27.37% [5]. - The company’s revenue from liquid milk, milk powder, and other products for the first half of 2025 was 5.067 billion yuan, 460 million yuan, and 413 million yuan respectively, with liquid milk showing a 4.60% increase year-on-year [6]. Product and Market Development - New product revenue accounted for a double-digit percentage of total revenue, with low-temperature product sales growing over 10% year-on-year [7]. - The company launched innovative products such as yogurt and caramel milk pudding, which quickly gained consumer acceptance, contributing to revenue growth [7]. - E-commerce channel revenue reached 595 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.41%, driven by the company's active engagement with platforms like Taobao and Pinduoduo [7]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 11.271 billion yuan, 12.030 billion yuan, and 13.057 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.68%, 6.74%, and 8.53% [10][12]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 716 million yuan, 870 million yuan, and 1.041 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 33.16%, 21.51%, and 19.66% respectively [10][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.53 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 397 million yuan, up 33.8% year-on-year. For Q2 2025, revenue was 2.90 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.5% year-on-year growth, while net profit was 263 million yuan, an increase of 27.4% year-on-year. The profit exceeded expectations, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [6][9] - The company is focusing on core categories and channels, particularly low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt, while also enhancing direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales channels. The company has significantly increased its mid-term dividend, distributing 0.7 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 60.25 million yuan, which represents 15% of H1 profits, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [9][10] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the liquid milk segment generated revenue of 5.067 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. The low-temperature product category saw sales growth exceeding 10%, with high-end fresh milk and the "Today's Fresh Milk Shop" achieving double-digit growth. The "Active Moist" series experienced over 40% growth, and new products maintained a double-digit share [7][8] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 30.5%, up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the growth of high-margin low-temperature products and internal structural optimization. The net profit margin for Q2 2025 was 9.1%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [8][9] - The company expects stable raw milk prices and a reduction in competitive pricing pressures, which may support further gross margin improvements in the second half of the year. Overall, the company anticipates a continued enhancement in profitability metrics [8][9] Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts revenues of 11.197 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to reach 717 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.3%. The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.83 yuan for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.7 times [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a steady growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with a significant increase in net profit margin and a focus on enhancing shareholder returns through increased dividend payouts [1][4]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.53 billion yuan (+3.0%) and a net profit of 400 million yuan (+33.8%), with a non-recurring net profit of 410 million yuan (+31.2%) [1]. - In the second quarter of 2025, revenue reached 2.90 billion yuan (+5.5%), with a net profit of 260 million yuan (+27.4%) and a non-recurring net profit of 270 million yuan (+26.8%) [1]. Product Performance - Revenue from liquid milk, milk powder, and other products for the first half of 2025 was 5.07 billion yuan, 50 million yuan, and 410 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of +4.6%, +32.3%, and -15.0% [2]. - The company’s low-temperature product category saw over 10% year-on-year growth, driven by high-end fresh milk and innovative products that cater to current consumer trends [2]. Regional Performance - Revenue by region for the first half of 2025 was as follows: Southwest 1.97 billion yuan (+5.1%), East China 1.61 billion yuan (+6.8%), North China 450 million yuan (-15.8%), Northwest 670 million yuan (-1.9%), and other regions 830 million yuan (+7.9%) [2]. Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 30.0% (+0.8 percentage points), and the net margin was 7.4% (+1.7 percentage points) [3]. - In the second quarter of 2025, the gross margin improved to 30.5% (+1.4 percentage points), with a net margin of 9.4% (+1.7 percentage points) [3]. Shareholder Returns - The interim dividend payout ratio for the first half of 2025 was set at 15%, reflecting the company's commitment to enhancing shareholder returns [4]. Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 11.18 billion yuan, 11.77 billion yuan, and 12.36 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, representing year-on-year growth of 4.8%, 5.3%, and 5.0%, respectively [5]. - Projected net profits for the same years are 690 million yuan, 820 million yuan, and 950 million yuan, with growth rates of 27.6%, 20.1%, and 15.6% [5].

公司点评 | 新乳业 鲜立方战略坚定落地，盈利能力显著提升 证券研究报告 2025 年 08 月 28 日 新乳业（002946.SZ）2025 年半年报点评 事件：公司发布 25 年半年报，25H1 实现营收/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润分 别为 55.26 亿元/3.97 亿元/4.11 亿元，对应分别+3.0%/+33.8%/+31.2%；25Q2 实现营收/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润分别为 29.0 亿元/2.6 亿元/2.7 亿元， 对应分别+5.5%/+27.4%/+26.9%。 低温战略成效显著，核心品类驱动增长。在行业需求分化的背景下，公司坚定 "鲜立方"战略，低温品类销售额同比增超 10%。其中，高端鲜奶与"今日鲜 奶铺"均实现双位数增长，"活润"系列凭借产品创新与场景拓展，实现超 40% 的高速增长。鲜立方驱动下，25H1 公司液奶收入+4.6%至 50.7 亿元，在营收占 比进一步提升至 91.7% 渠道端：DTC 模式继续引领公司增长，25H1 直销模式收入+23.0%至 33.9 亿元， 营收占比提升至 66.3%；顺应趋势推动线上线下深度融合，25H1 电商渠道收入 +15.4%至 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 21 yuan [2][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.526 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.01%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 397 million yuan, up 33.76% year-on-year [2][8]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 2.901 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.46%, and a net profit of 263 million yuan, which is a 27.37% increase year-on-year [2][8]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.7 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 60.2474 million yuan, corresponding to a dividend payout ratio of 15% [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - The total revenue forecast for 2024 is 10.665 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 5.0% in 2025, 5.6% in 2026, and 5.8% in 2027 [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 538 million yuan in 2024, with growth rates of 33.4% in 2025, 15.8% in 2026, and 14.4% in 2027 [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.62 yuan in 2024, increasing to 0.83 yuan in 2025, 0.97 yuan in 2026, and 1.10 yuan in 2027 [4]. Sales and Profitability Insights - The company has shown a significant improvement in sales structure and cost optimization, leading to a gross margin of 30.49% in Q2 2025, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [8]. - The sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios were 15.9%, 2.93%, 0.43%, and 0.77%, respectively, with an overall expense ratio decline of 0.38 percentage points year-on-year [8]. - The net profit margin reached 9.36%, up 1.67 percentage points year-on-year, indicating strong profitability [8]. Growth Drivers and Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain revenue growth in the second half of 2025, driven by the stability of ambient milk and continued growth in low-temperature milk [8]. - The focus on low-temperature milk and product innovation is anticipated to enhance revenue resilience and profitability [8]. - The company has adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 to 0.83, 0.97, and 1.10 yuan, respectively, reflecting a positive outlook on earnings growth [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 5.526 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.01%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 397 million yuan, up 33.76% year-on-year [7] - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the low-temperature product segment, which saw sales increase by over 10%, with high-end fresh milk and the "Today's Fresh Milk Shop" achieving double-digit growth [7] - The company is focusing on a "fresh strategy" to enhance its fresh milk business and has set a target for profit margin improvement as part of its five-year strategy launched in 2023 [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 687 million, 839 million, and 974 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 28%, 22%, and 16% [6] - The gross margin for H1 2025 improved to 30.02%, with the liquid milk and dairy products segment achieving a gross margin of 32.21% [7] - The report indicates that the company's net profit margin for H1 2025 was 7.18%, an increase of 1.65 percentage points year-on-year [7]