公司多品牌矩阵资源稀缺，主品牌表现稳健，FILA 调整高效，重回向上趋势，户外新品牌延续强劲势 头，公司稀缺且优质的多品牌矩阵组合极具成长潜力，看好未来发展，维持"买入"评级。考虑到26 年 Amer Sports 配售为公司带来一次性非现金利得16 亿元，我们上调26 年利润预测，维持27 年并新增28 年利润预测，预计26-28 年归母净利润分别为156.0/157.4/171.2 亿元（原26 年为140.0 亿元），对应PE 为13 /12 /11 倍，若剔除Amer Sports配售影响，实际26 年净利润为140.0 亿元，26-27 同口径下利润增速 为3%/12%。 公司发布25 年年报，收入利润均为双位数增长，全年派息率50%。25 年公司实现收入802.2亿元，同比 增长13.3%，表现符合预期，归母净利润135.9 亿元，剔除24 年Amer Sports上市及配售事项权益摊薄一 次性利得后，同口径下同比增长13.9%，收入增速持续快于利润增速，表现略超预期，主要由于高利润 率的户外品牌高增长，结构性拉高利润率，以及费用率管控得当、运营效率提升。公司拟派发末期股息 每股1.08 港元，连 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports [1] Core Insights - Anta Sports reported a revenue of RMB 802.2 billion for FY2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 135.9 billion, with a comparable growth of 13.9% after excluding one-time gains from the Amer Sports listing in FY2024. The company proposed a final dividend of HKD 1.08 per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 50.1% of adjusted net profit, indicating stable shareholder returns [6][9][14] - The main brand, Anta, showed steady growth with a revenue of RMB 347.5 billion, up 3.7% year-on-year, driven by optimized offline channels and improved online operations. FILA brand revenue reached RMB 284.7 billion, growing 6.9%, supported by continuous product upgrades and e-commerce growth. Other brands saw significant growth, with revenue increasing by 59.2% to RMB 170.0 billion [6][9][14] - The company's gross margin slightly decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 62.0%, primarily due to increased investment in product functionality and the rapid growth of lower-margin e-commerce channels. However, the operating profit margin improved by 0.4 percentage points to 23.8% due to effective cost control and operational efficiency [6][14] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - For FY2026, the projected revenue is RMB 893.8 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 156.0 billion, reflecting a 15% increase compared to FY2025. The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted at RMB 5.43 [5][17] - The company’s financial performance indicates a stable operating cash flow of RMB 209.96 billion, a 25.4% increase year-on-year, and free cash flow of RMB 161.06 billion, up 21.5% [6][17]

Group 1 - Anta Sports reported a decline in retail sales for its Anta brand in Q4 2025, attributed to warm winter weather affecting winter apparel sales and a late Spring Festival impacting children's clothing, while FILA brand retail sales showed a mid-single-digit growth [1] - The overall retail environment remains weak, leading to expected downward pressure on Operating Profit Margin (OPM) for Anta brand, despite stable discount and inventory turnover ratios [1] - FILA brand's retail sales growth is attributed to effective brand restructuring and channel adjustments, with expectations for continued strong growth into 2026, although OPM may also face downward pressure due to ongoing channel adjustments [1] Group 2 - The outlook for Anta brand in 2026 is conservative, with a high probability of growth during the Olympic year, but increased marketing expenses and potential discount pressures may lead to significant OPM challenges [2] - FILA brand is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory, with a more manageable OPM contraction anticipated [2] - Overall, the company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13 billion, 14 billion, and 15.1 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 15, 14, and 13 times [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports [2] Core Views - Anta's brand performance faced pressure in Q4 2025, with a slight decline in revenue for the Anta brand, while FILA and other brands showed growth [8] - The overall revenue forecast for Anta Sports from 2025 to 2027 is projected to grow at rates of 10.8%, 9.9%, and 9.4% respectively, despite a challenging retail environment [8] - The report highlights the potential for multi-brand development in the long term, particularly in the outdoor segment, which is expected to continue to gain traction [8] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Anta Sports are as follows: - 2024: 70,826 million RMB - 2025: 78,479 million RMB - 2026: 86,250 million RMB - 2027: 94,396 million RMB - Net profit forecasts are: - 2024: 15,596 million RMB - 2025: 13,139 million RMB - 2026: 14,140 million RMB - 2027: 15,846 million RMB - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2024: 5.58 RMB - 2025: 4.70 RMB - 2026: 5.06 RMB - 2027: 5.67 RMB [2][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports [2] Core Views - Anta's brand revenue faced pressure in Q4 2025, but the potential for multi-brand globalization is promising [8] - The report forecasts revenue growth for 2025-2027 at 10.8%, 9.9%, and 9.4% respectively, with net profit expected to decline by 15.8% in 2025 before recovering [8] - The report highlights the resilience of the FILA brand despite a challenging retail environment, with expected growth in 2026 [8] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections (in million RMB): - 2024A: 70,826 - 2025E: 78,479 - 2026E: 86,250 - 2027E: 94,396 - Net profit projections (in million RMB): - 2024A: 15,596 - 2025E: 13,139 - 2026E: 14,140 - 2027E: 15,846 - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts: - 2024A: 5.58 - 2025E: 4.70 - 2026E: 5.06 - 2027E: 5.67 - Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios: - 2024A: 13 - 2025E: 15 - 2026E: 14 - 2027E: 13 [2][9] Operational Insights - Anta brand revenue declined in Q4 2025 due to a weak retail environment, warm winter, and increased competition [8] - FILA brand showed mid-single-digit growth in Q4, indicating improvement from Q3 [8] - Other brands like Descente and MAIA ACTIVE are experiencing strong revenue growth, contributing positively to the multi-brand strategy [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5] Core Insights - The company has shown resilience in a fluctuating retail environment, with its main brands maintaining stable performance while the outdoor brand matrix continues to grow significantly [8] - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing reforms in both online and offline channels, alongside the positive momentum of its FILA and outdoor brand matrix [4] Summary by Sections Brand Performance - FILA brand experienced a slight deceleration in growth with a Q3 revenue increase in low single digits, attributed to higher September temperatures affecting autumn apparel sales timing. The offline discount rate was 7.4, and online was 5.8, with inventory turnover increasing to 6X due to preparations for Double Eleven [2] - Other brands within the outdoor segment showed impressive growth, with Descente achieving a 30% revenue increase and KOLON achieving a 70% increase in Q3. Both brands maintained a healthy discount rate of 90% [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecast for the company has been slightly adjusted downwards due to retail environment pressures and the impact of the integration of the Wolf Claw brand. Expected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 793 billion, 875 billion, and 948 billion respectively, with net profits of 131 billion, 145 billion, and 160 billion [4] - The company’s current P/E ratios are projected at 15.8, 14.3, and 13.0 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [4] Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected at 70,826 million, with a growth rate of 13.58%. The net profit for the same year is expected to be 15,596 million, reflecting a significant increase of 52.36% [9]

Core Insights - Anta Sports reported a low single-digit year-on-year growth in revenue for both Anta and FILA brands in Q3 2025, while other brands experienced a revenue growth of 45-50%, demonstrating resilience amid industry slowdowns and increased promotions [1][2] - The company is expected to maintain a strategy focused on healthy inventory levels and discount control, optimizing its structure around high-growth segments such as running, outdoor, and tennis [1] - The overall outlook remains positive, with potential benefits from new retail reforms, category upgrades, and overseas expansion, leading to a "Buy" rating [1] Anta Brand Performance - In Q3 2025, Anta brand revenue achieved low single-digit year-on-year growth, with expectations of low single-digit growth in offline and high single-digit growth in online channels [1] - The discount rates for offline and online channels were approximately 71% and 50%, respectively, with inventory turnover slightly above five months, indicating a healthy range [1] - Online performance is expected to gradually improve as organizational adjustments and content operations stabilize, while offline new retail formats continue to show strong performance [1] FILA Brand Performance - FILA brand revenue also saw low single-digit year-on-year growth in Q3 2025, with strong resilience in e-commerce expected to yield high single-digit growth [1] - The brand has solidified its position in tennis by renewing its sponsorship of the China Open and enhancing customer experience through new store formats [1] - Inventory turnover is projected to stabilize around five to six months by year-end, with discount control remaining steady [1] Other Brands Performance - Other brands reported a significant revenue growth of 45-50% in Q3 2025, with specific brands like Descente and KAILAS showing growth rates of approximately 30% and 70%, respectively [2] - The growth of other brands is attributed to high-end functional products and differentiated retail experiences, with a focus on outdoor and performance sports [2] - The company anticipates maintaining strong growth momentum in Q4 during the outdoor peak season [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to uncertainties in retail recovery and a competitive promotional environment, the company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 down by 3.8%, 3.6%, and 4.0% to 13.03 billion, 14.63 billion, and 16.30 billion yuan, respectively [2] - The target price has been adjusted to 115.24 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on the company's multi-brand and retail operational advantages [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports [5] Core Insights - Anta Sports' two main brands are performing steadily, while new brands continue to show high growth momentum [10] - The company has adjusted its revenue guidance for the Anta brand down to low single-digit growth due to a weak retail environment [10] - The multi-brand matrix of the company is seen as a rare resource with significant growth potential in the long term [10] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for FY2023 to FY2027 are as follows: - FY2023: 623.6 billion RMB - FY2024: 708.3 billion RMB - FY2025E: 789.1 billion RMB - FY2026E: 858.1 billion RMB - FY2027E: 923.0 billion RMB - Net profit forecasts show a significant increase in FY2023 with 102.4 billion RMB, peaking at 159.2 billion RMB in FY2027 [9][20] - The gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 62.6% in FY2023 to 63.9% in FY2027 [9] Brand Performance - Anta and FILA brands showed low single-digit growth in Q3 2025, while other brands experienced a growth rate of 45-50% [10] - FILA's growth was impacted by delayed sales of autumn and winter products, but it is expected to maintain mid-single-digit growth for the year [10] - Other brands like Descente and Maia Active are showing strong growth, with Descente growing approximately 30% and Maia Active around 45% [10] Market Expansion - Anta Sports is expanding its overseas market with a target of reaching 1,000 stores in Southeast Asia within three years [10] - The company is focusing on brand building and market cultivation in strategic markets like Europe and the US [10] Profitability and Cost Management - The company emphasizes quality over quantity in its operations, maintaining a profit margin target of 20-25% for the Anta brand and around 25% for FILA [10] - The report indicates a slight decrease in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 due to the current weak retail environment [10]

Core Viewpoint - Anta Sports achieved a revenue of 38.54 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, with a net profit of 7.03 billion yuan, also up by 14.5%, exceeding expectations [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company plans to distribute a mid-term dividend of 3.53 billion yuan, with a payout ratio of 50% [1] - Anta's operating profit margin (OPM) reached 26.3%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The revenue breakdown for H1 2025 shows Anta brand at 16.9 billion yuan (+5%), FILA at 14.2 billion yuan (+9%), and other brands at 7.4 billion yuan (+61%) [1] Group 2: Brand Performance - FILA and outdoor brands showed strong performance, with FILA's new CEO enhancing brand and retail channel strategies [1][2] - Descente and Kolon maintained high-quality growth due to favorable market conditions and refined operations [1] Group 3: Margin Analysis - Gross profit margins (GPM) for Anta and FILA decreased by 1.7 percentage points and 2.2 percentage points respectively, attributed to increased costs in professional categories and a higher proportion of online sales [2] - Despite GPM pressure, Anta's OPM improved due to increased government subsidies, with OPM expected to remain healthy through refined expense management [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company anticipates net profits of 13.4 billion yuan, 15 billion yuan, and 16.8 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of 13%, 12%, and 12% respectively [2] - Anta's brand expansion overseas is accelerating, with plans for increased investment in FILA and recent acquisition of the Wolf Paw brand to enhance its brand matrix [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - Anta Sports achieved a revenue of 38.54 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.3%. The operating profit margin (OPM) was 26.3%, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.03 billion yuan, also up 14.5% year-on-year, indicating performance exceeded expectations. The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 3.53 billion yuan, with a payout ratio of 50% [2][4]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In H1 2025, Anta's revenue from its brands was as follows: Anta brand revenue increased by 5% to 16.9 billion yuan, FILA brand revenue increased by 9% to 14.2 billion yuan, and other brands saw a significant increase of 61% to 7.4 billion yuan. The company is experiencing steady growth in the domestic market due to a multi-channel store model, and overseas market expansion is gradually showing results [6]. Gross Profit Margin (GPM) and Operating Profit Margin (OPM) - The GPM for Anta and FILA brands decreased by 1.7 percentage points and 2.2 percentage points respectively. The decline in Anta's GPM is attributed to increased costs in professional categories and a higher proportion of online business. However, the OPM for Anta and FILA brands increased by 1.5 percentage points and decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 23.3% and 27.7% respectively. Government subsidies contributed positively to Anta's OPM performance [6]. Long-term Growth Path - Despite short-term pressures from increased competition and ongoing investments, Anta's long-term growth trajectory remains clear. The company is accelerating its international expansion, and the recent acquisition of the Wolf Claw brand is expected to enhance its brand portfolio. Projections for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 are 13.4 billion yuan, 15 billion yuan, and 16.8 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 13%, 12%, and 12% respectively [6][8].