Core Viewpoint - The pork market is experiencing a peak in supply due to high pig slaughter rates, while demand is also increasing as the holiday season approaches, leading to a stable yet slightly rising trend in pork prices. Group 1: Pig Prices and Supply - Pig prices have slightly decreased, with a stable slaughter rhythm and alleviated overcapacity pressure. In October, the slaughter volume reached 38.34 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 7.0% and a year-on-year increase of 26.2% [1] - The average market price for pork in November was 23.05 yuan per kilogram, down 1.5% month-on-month and down 19.7% year-on-year. The average market price for live pigs was 12.55 yuan per kilogram, down 0.2% month-on-month and down 27.6% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Pig Grain Ratio - The pig-to-grain price ratio has increased slightly to 5.44:1 in November, up by 0.07 points from the previous month, although it remains below 5.5:1. The price of feed corn was 2.43 yuan per kilogram, down 1.2% month-on-month but up 3.3% year-on-year [2] - Farmers are facing losses, with self-breeding farmers losing an average of 80 yuan per pig and those purchasing piglets for fattening losing about 270 yuan per pig [2] Group 3: Import and Export Trends - In October, China's imports of fresh and frozen pork were 71,100 tons, down 11.1% month-on-month and down 21.1% year-on-year, with an import value of 144 million USD, down 11.7% month-on-month and down 25.0% year-on-year [3] - Cumulative imports from January to October were 859,600 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%, while exports increased significantly by 51.6% to 33,200 tons [3] Group 4: European Market Trends - European pork prices have been declining for four consecutive months due to increased production, export obstacles, and seasonal consumption declines, with wholesale prices at 1,700.45 euros per ton, down 4.7% month-on-month and down 11.8% year-on-year [4] Group 5: Future Price Expectations - As the supply of pigs reaches its annual peak and with effective measures in place to control production, pork prices are expected to remain stable with slight increases leading up to the Spring Festival, supported by rising consumer demand during the holiday season [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the profitability of the breeding chain is expected to see significant growth in H1 2025, with the pet sector maintaining its high prosperity [3][20] - The preliminary ruling on anti-dumping measures against EU pork imports is anticipated to drive domestic pork prices upward, presenting a good opportunity for investment in the pig farming sector [4][14] - The report emphasizes a dual driving force from both fundamental and policy aspects, suggesting that pig prices are likely to rise in H2 2025, improving the investment logic in the pig farming sector [20] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The Ministry of Commerce has announced preliminary anti-dumping measures on EU pork imports, with a guarantee deposit rate ranging from 15.6% to 62.4% [4][13] - The domestic pork and pork offal import volume reached 1.15 million tons in H1 2025, with EU imports accounting for 52% [14][16] Market Performance (Sept 1 - Sept 5) - The agricultural index underperformed the market by 0.15 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.18% and the agricultural index down 1.32% [6][24] - The pet food sector led the gains among sub-sectors, with notable increases in individual stocks such as Yuegui Co. (+13.19%) and Honghui Fruits (+9.23%) [6][24][29] Price Tracking (Sept 1 - Sept 5) - The average price of live pigs was 13.77 yuan/kg, up 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the average price of piglets was 25.4 yuan/kg, down 1.74 yuan/kg [7][35] - The price of corn futures increased by 1.46% to 2219.00 yuan/ton, and soybean meal futures rose by 1.60% to 2536.00 yuan/ton [47][48] Key News (Sept 1 - Sept 5) - The Ministry of Agriculture reported a 5.3% month-on-month increase in the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises in July 2025 [30] - The report indicates that the domestic pig farming sector is expected to benefit from the anti-dumping measures, leading to a potential increase in domestic pork prices [4][14] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the pig farming sector include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Juxing Agriculture [20] - In the feed sector, companies like Haida Group and New Hope Liuhe are recommended due to strong domestic and overseas demand [20][23]