Summary of Tmall Double 11 Pet Industry Conference Industry Overview - The pet food sales on Tmall are projected to reach between 20 billion to 24 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of approximately 23%-24% [10][1] - JD.com is expected to achieve sales of 8 billion to 9 billion yuan, while Pinduoduo may exceed 10 billion yuan [10][1] - Pinduoduo has shown rapid growth from 2 billion yuan in 2020 to 6.1 billion yuan in 2023, but its growth rate has slowed in recent years [10][1] Key Insights and Arguments - Tmall's Double 11 pet category growth is supported by platform incentives, increased UV traffic, AI technology applications, and rising Tmall traffic [1][5] - The average daily active users (DAU) on the platform reached 670 million, with flash sales driving 140 million DAU [6][1] - The average transaction value in the pet category increased by approximately 5-6 percentage points [6][1] - Sales figures during Double 11 included: - Cat food: 3.188 billion yuan, up 36.9% - Dog food: 2.082 billion yuan, up 24.59% - Cat snacks: 652 million yuan, up 47.8% - Dog snacks: 267 million yuan, up 41.26% [7][1] Brand Performance - Domestic pet brands have a higher concentration than foreign brands, with notable performances from brands like Xianlang, Maisidi, and Lanshi [1][9] - Xianlang achieved sales of 353 million yuan, with a promotional ROI of 1:12 and a quarterly repurchase rate of 64% [9][1] - Other brands like Maisidi and Lanshi also showed significant growth, with ROIs higher than those in the household and beauty sectors by 5-6 percentage points [9][1] Financial Metrics - Brand gross margins on Tmall are approximately 50%-60%, with e-commerce platform costs accounting for about 8.5% [20][1] - The cost structure includes advertising expenses, commissions, and technical service fees [20][1] - Leading brands like Maifudi and Royal have lower cost ratios, around 6%-8% [20][1] Market Dynamics - The pet food category is a key focus for Tmall, with increased support leading to a 16% increase in category coupons [33][1] - The overall GMV for Tmall during Double 11 was 1,093.48 billion yuan, with pet food GMV at 625.5 million yuan, up 34.19% [2][1] - The pet food market is characterized by a dual growth in quantity and price, particularly in the cat food segment [18][1] Consumer Behavior - There is a trend towards purchasing larger or higher-value products, with cat product sales volume increasing by 13% and prices rising by 7% [37][1] - Dog product sales are expected to increase by 3%, with actual volume growth around 5% and a price increase of 10% [37][1] Competitive Landscape - Tmall's market share has reached parity with Taobao, with Tmall's volume now equal to that of Taobao [19][1] - Different brands employ varied strategies for off-platform promotion, impacting their sales performance [21][1] Conclusion - The pet food market on Tmall is experiencing robust growth driven by strategic platform support, consumer trends towards premium products, and effective brand marketing strategies. The competitive landscape is shifting, with domestic brands gaining a stronger foothold against foreign competitors.

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to exceed that of the CSI 300 index in the next six months [64]. Core Insights - The pet economy is identified as a significant trend with strong growth potential, driven by increasing consumer spending on pet food and products. The report highlights the robust performance of domestic pet food brands during promotional events, suggesting a favorable market environment for these companies [7][14]. - In the livestock sector, there has been a notable increase in pig sales, with April sales reaching 7.7705 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 21.38%. The average selling price of pigs also saw a slight increase, indicating a recovery in the market [8][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the agricultural sector in ensuring food security, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions affecting global grain supply and demand. It provides forecasts for various crops, including wheat, rice, corn, and soybeans, indicating expected increases in production and consumption [10][11][12]. Summary by Sections Livestock Industry - April pig sales increased to 7.7705 million heads, up 21.38% month-on-month. The average selling price was 14.82 yuan/kg, a 0.60% increase from the previous month [8]. - The report suggests focusing on leading livestock companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wen's Foodstuffs, which have strong growth potential [9]. Pet Industry - The report highlights the strong performance of domestic pet food brands during promotional events, with significant year-on-year growth expected in the pet food market [7][14]. - It recommends monitoring the sales progress of pet brands during promotional periods as a catalyst for the sector [7]. Crop Production - The global wheat supply is projected to increase by 4.9 million tons, reaching 107.37 million tons, with a record production forecast of 808.5 million tons for the 2025/26 season [10]. - The rice production forecast for 2025/26 is set at a record 538.7 million tons, with significant contributions from India and China [11]. - Corn consumption is expected to grow by 2% to a record 1.274 billion tons, driven by increased imports from countries like China and Vietnam [12]. Agricultural Policy and Market Dynamics - The report discusses the ongoing agricultural policies aimed at revitalizing the seed industry and promoting biotechnology, which are expected to enhance industry growth and reshape market dynamics [13]. - It emphasizes the need for strategic responses to global market changes, particularly in the context of trade agreements and international demand for agricultural products [20].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the pig price is expected to maintain fluctuations in the short term, with a slight increase in production capacity observed in April. The current pig price is 14.79 CNY/kg, with an average weight of 129.71 kg for market pigs [6][20] - The report suggests a shift from "cyclical thinking" to focusing on financial performance, emphasizing that the efficiency differences among companies are significant. It recommends focusing on leading companies in the pig farming sector, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, due to their strong profit certainty in 2025 [7][21] - The poultry sector is experiencing a rebound in chicken prices, with the latest prices for broiler chickens at 7.46 CNY/kg and chick prices at 3.1 CNY each. The report indicates that the industry is facing quality issues with breeding stock, leading to a concentration of profits towards upstream sources [8][22] - In the feed sector, the report recommends Haida Group due to its cash flow turning point and overseas growth potential. The fish prices have shown positive trends, with various species experiencing year-on-year increases [9][23][24] - The pet industry is noted for its continuous growth, with sales data indicating a decline in some segments but strong performance from certain brands like MaiFudi and Fuleijiate. The report emphasizes the importance of domestic brands and their market performance [13][25][29] - The agricultural products sector is expected to see price increases due to reduced imports and a focus on domestic supply, with the report highlighting the importance of improving farmers' income through price adjustments [16][31] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Industry - Short-term pig prices are expected to fluctuate, with a current price of 14.79 CNY/kg and an average weight of 129.71 kg for market pigs. The production capacity is slightly increasing, with a total of 40.39 million breeding sows reported [6][20] - The report suggests that the overall supply of pigs is expected to be high, leading to a weak price outlook in the medium to long term [20][21] 2. Poultry Industry - Chicken prices are rebounding, with broiler prices at 7.46 CNY/kg and chick prices at 3.1 CNY each. The report indicates that the industry is facing quality issues with breeding stock, leading to a concentration of profits towards upstream sources [8][22] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Haida Group due to its cash flow turning point and overseas growth potential. Fish prices have shown positive trends, with various species experiencing year-on-year increases [9][23][24] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry is noted for its continuous growth, with sales data indicating a decline in some segments but strong performance from certain brands like MaiFudi and Fuleijiate. The report emphasizes the importance of domestic brands and their market performance [13][25][29] 5. Agricultural Products - The agricultural products sector is expected to see price increases due to reduced imports and a focus on domestic supply, with the report highlighting the importance of improving farmers' income through price adjustments [16][31]