Market Outlook - December is expected to start strong, with a market trend of initial gains followed by potential declines in a volatile environment[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index's 5-day moving average has formed a death cross with the 30-day moving average, indicating short-term resistance[6] Investment Strategy - Focus on mid-cap blue chips, particularly in the consumer sector, which is showing signs of recovery after a prolonged downturn[6] - Key sectors to watch include AI-driven new materials and traditional commodities like live pigs and rubber, which are experiencing improved supply-demand dynamics[6] Risk Factors - Risks include slower-than-expected consumer recovery, unclear demand scenarios, and uncertainties surrounding the sustainability of trade-in subsidy policies[5] ETF Recommendations - Suggested ETFs include cash flow ETFs and sector-specific ETFs for consumer goods, beverages, and home appliances, which are expected to perform well in the current market[6]

Market Strategy - The market is expected to maintain a "fluctuating" state with both upward and downward movements, characterized by a slight strengthening trend [3][7] - The current market environment is stable, with external and internal factors not being the core of short-term trading; instead, the characteristics of the market are driven by style and trading dynamics [7] Industry Strategy - The pig farming industry is likely to see a market-driven capacity reduction due to current weak prices and policy support, with live pig prices dropping below 12 yuan/kg and weaned piglet prices around 200 yuan/head, indicating a phase of overall industry losses [4][7] - Historical trends suggest that when pig prices are low, the industry is likely to initiate market-driven capacity reduction, which could lead to long-term price increases for pigs [7] Thematic Strategy - The retail sector is anticipated to benefit from the extended Spring Festival in 2026, which is expected to boost seasonal consumption, particularly in offline department stores and supermarkets [5][7] - Cities with unique tourism resources, such as Urumqi, Chongqing, Changsha, Fuzhou, and Shenyang, are expected to attract significant tourist traffic, further enhancing local retail consumption [7]

Market Strategy - The market is expected to maintain a "fluctuating" state with both upward and downward movements, characterized by a slight strengthening trend [3][7] - The current market environment is stable, with external and internal factors not being the core of short-term trading; instead, the characteristics of the market are driven by style and trading dynamics [7] Industry Strategy - The pig farming industry is likely to undergo a capacity reduction due to current weak prices and policy-driven factors, with the price of fat pigs dropping below 12 yuan/kg and weaned piglets around 200 yuan/head, indicating a phase of overall losses in the industry [7] - Historical trends suggest that when both fat pig and piglet prices are low, the industry is likely to initiate market-driven capacity reduction, which could support long-term price increases for pigs [7] Thematic Strategy - The retail sector is anticipated to benefit from the extended Spring Festival in 2026, which is expected to boost seasonal consumption, particularly in offline department stores and supermarkets [7] - Cities with unique tourism resources, such as Urumqi, Chongqing, Changsha, Fuzhou, and Shenyang, are expected to attract a significant number of tourists, further enhancing local retail consumption [7]