中金主要观点如下： 中金发布研报称，维持理想汽车-W(02015)跑赢行业评级。港美股分别对应15/14x 26E P/E，考虑到 MEGA召回损失及市场竞争加剧，下调2025/26年Non-GAAP盈利预测66%/30%至26/98亿元，市场对 2025年盈利下滑、26年市场竞争压力等都有一定预期，该行更关注公司强产品周期和长期AI投入带来 的反转，因此相应下调港美股目标价7%/7%至100港元/26美元，分别对应21/20x 26E P/E，存在40%/42% 上行空间。 3Q业绩低于市场预期 公司公布3Q业绩：营收273.7亿元，Non-GAAP净亏损3.6亿元，3Q产生MEGA车型召回损失，业绩低于 市场预期。 一次性计入召回成本，实际毛利率保持稳定 重回创业型企业思路，坚持长维度投入 本次业绩会中，公司CEO李想阐述了对未来十年长维度的思考。组织上，公司重回创业公司管理模式， 核心聚焦深度对话，聚焦用户价值，持续提升效率，识别关键问题并减少信息不对称。产品上，脱离单 纯电动车的智能终端，明确拓展为提供主动服务的具身智能终端(包含汽车及非车形态);技术上，继续提 升感知、模型、算力等核心技术，构建理解 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising issue of black public relations (PR) and malicious misinformation targeting automotive companies in China, particularly Xiaomi, Xiaopeng, NIO, and Deep Blue, highlighting the need for regulatory action and legal recourse against such practices [2][6][10]. Group 1: Black PR Tactics - Automotive companies are facing similar tactics of misinformation, including AI-generated false content, derogatory comments towards car owners, and negative press releases before new product launches [2][6]. - Specific instances of misinformation include false claims about NIO vehicles catching fire and Xiaomi cars being unable to open doors after a collision, which were later proven to be fabricated [6][8]. Group 2: Legal Actions and Regulatory Response - Xiaomi's legal department has collected evidence against hundreds of accounts and initiated dozens of lawsuits, with multiple cases currently under investigation [2]. - Xiaopeng Motors recently won a court case against a company that published defamatory content, resulting in a public apology and financial compensation [3]. - NIO and other companies have also reported similar issues and are actively participating in a joint regulatory effort to combat black PR and improve the industry’s public image [4][12]. Group 3: Industry Impact and Call for Action - The black PR issue is significantly disrupting market order and harming consumer rights, prompting companies to take legal action against malicious actors [4][10]. - Industry leaders emphasize the need for stronger regulatory measures and collaboration among industry associations to create a healthier public discourse around automotive brands [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Li Auto (LI.US/2015.HK), with a target price of $26.4, representing a potential upside of 17% for the US stock and a target price of HKD 102.6, representing a potential upside of 16% for the HK stock [2][4][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that while there are fluctuations in the sales guidance for the third quarter, the gross margin is expected to remain stable. The company is actively adjusting its sales strategies to enhance sales performance, and the upcoming launch of the i6 model is anticipated to boost sales in the fourth quarter [8][29]. - The second quarter gross margin was stable at 20.1%, with total revenue reaching RMB 30.2 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17% [11][12]. - The report indicates a significant adjustment in revenue and profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 due to expected declines in sales and operating profit [12][29]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: RMB 123,851 million - 2024: RMB 144,460 million - 2025E: RMB 121,217 million (down 16%) - 2026E: RMB 135,335 million (up 12%) - 2027E: RMB 151,527 million (up 12%) [3][9]. - Gross margin is projected to be around 20.2% in 2025, with net profit expected to decline significantly in 2025 before recovering in subsequent years [12][29]. Market Expectations - The report notes that the demand for new energy vehicles in China, particularly in the high-end segment, is expected to drive sales growth for Li Auto. The positive market response to pure electric models is anticipated to enhance average selling prices and gross margins [29][36]. - The company is also expected to invest approximately RMB 6 billion in artificial intelligence this year, which is projected to provide a long-term competitive advantage [8][29].