Overview - The demand for insulin in China is rapidly increasing due to a large diabetic patient population, with the market for insulin glargine projected to reach 6.083 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.13% and accounting for 22.36% of the overall insulin market [1][9]. Market Policy - The Chinese government has implemented a series of policies to regulate the production, sales, and use of insulin, including insulin glargine, to ensure drug quality and safety, promoting healthy and high-quality industry development [4][5]. Industry Chain - The upstream of the insulin glargine industry includes suppliers of raw materials such as gene-engineered strains, culture media, and packaging materials, while the midstream consists of production companies, and the downstream includes medical institutions and pharmacies [6][7]. Current Development - The prevalence of diabetes in China is on the rise, with an estimated 148 million diabetic patients in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.89%, which drives the demand for insulin glargine [8][9]. Competitive Landscape - The market is transitioning from foreign dominance to the rise of domestic companies, with a multi-faceted competitive landscape involving original research companies, leading domestic firms, and follow-up entrants. Domestic companies like Ganli Pharmaceutical and Tonghua Dongbao have gained market share through centralized procurement policies [10][11]. Company Profiles - **Ganli Pharmaceutical**: Focuses on the research, production, and sales of insulin analogs, with projected revenue of 3.045 billion yuan and a gross profit of 2.279 billion yuan in 2024, achieving a gross margin of 74.83% [11][12]. - **Tonghua Dongbao**: Engaged in drug research and production, with a focus on diabetes and endocrine treatments, reporting a revenue of 2.01 billion yuan and a gross profit of 1.485 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 73.90% [12]. Future Trends - Domestic companies are expected to continue improving product quality and reducing the gap with imported products, leading to an increase in market share for domestic insulin glargine as centralized procurement policies advance, and more products may enter the international market [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [6]. Core Views - The company is experiencing robust growth in the domestic insulin market, with both volume and price increasing due to successful participation in centralized procurement [5][6]. - The company is actively advancing its innovative research and development pipeline, with promising data from its GLP-1 receptor agonist GZR18 and long-acting insulin GZR4 [5][6]. - The company is expanding its international presence, with increasing overseas sales and successful entry into emerging markets [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Position and Growth - The company is a leading player in the diabetes market, with a comprehensive insulin product pipeline and significant market share growth due to centralized procurement [9][12]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 22.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.81%, and a net profit of 5.07 billion yuan, up 90.36% [5][12]. 2. Research and Development - The company has a complete insulin research pipeline, including both marketed products and innovative drugs in development, such as GZR18 and GZR4 [34][39]. - GZR18 has shown significant weight loss results in clinical trials, indicating its potential as a best-in-class (BIC) treatment [36][37]. 3. International Expansion - The company is actively pursuing international markets, with successful product registrations and sales in regions such as Latin America and Asia-Pacific [43][44]. - The company’s overseas revenue reached 2.27 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.31% [44]. 4. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 6.52 billion yuan in 2024, 11.50 billion yuan in 2025, and 14.97 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 40, 23, and 17 [6][12]. - The company's P/E valuation for 2025 is estimated at 23 times, which is lower than the average of comparable companies at 32 times [6].