2025年08月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：美豆油SRE利空出尽，国际油脂上涨 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：四季度缺豆交易暂缓，高位震荡整理 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆小幅收涨，连粕或反弹震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：反弹震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：窄幅波动 | 7 | | 棉花：期货价格震荡偏强 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：近端关注淘鸡节奏，远端情绪仍偏弱 | 10 | | 生猪：收储利多落地，等待现货印证 | 11 | | 花生：关注新花生上市 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 25 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：美豆油 SRE 利空出尽，国际油脂上涨 豆油：四季度缺豆交易暂缓，高位震荡整理 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ...

2025 年 8 月 25 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：美豆油 SRE 利空出尽，国际油脂上涨 豆油：四季度缺豆交易暂缓，高位震荡整理 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,510 | 0.78% | 9,570 | 0.63% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,492 | 0.83% | 8,428 | -0.75% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,995 | 1.18% | 9,851 | -1.44% | | | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,531 | 1.59% | | | | 期 货 | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 55.20 | 2.47% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 48,758 | -9332 | 55,391 | -16,867 | | | 豆 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a consolidated net loss of $90 million for the second quarter of 2025, with a loss per share of $1.14 and an EBITDA loss of $24 million [5][11] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $99 million, with an adjusted loss per share of $0.23 [11] - The negative mark to market impact on the RFS obligation was $89 million, and the unfavorable inventory valuation impact was $32 million [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Petroleum segment, total throughput was approximately 172,000 barrels per day, with a light product yield of 99% on crude oil processed [5] - Adjusted EBITDA for the Petroleum segment was $38 million, driven by increased Group 3 crack spreads, offset by higher RIN prices and lower throughput volumes [11] - The Fertilizer segment achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $67 million, supported by higher UAN and ammonia sales pricing and volumes [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Group 3 2-1-1 benchmark cracks averaged $24.02 per barrel for the second quarter, compared to $18.83 per barrel in the same period last year [6] - Average RIN prices for 2025 were approximately $1.11, an increase of over 70% from the prior year [6] - Nitrogen fertilizer prices for 2025 were higher for both UAN and ammonia compared to 2024 [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to focus on improving capture rates, reducing costs, and growing the business profitably [25] - The alkylation project at Wynnewood is expected to enhance the ability to produce premium gasoline, with completion anticipated in 2027 [19] - The company is cautiously optimistic about the refining sector's near and medium-term outlook, given low refined product inventories and steady demand [20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism regarding the refining market, citing low inventories and steady demand for refined products [17][20] - The company is awaiting final regulations from the IRS regarding PTC benefits, which could positively impact the Renewables segment [9][21] - Management indicated that the energy transition is evolving, with a belief that gas and diesel will remain essential fuels for the foreseeable future [48] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with a consolidated cash balance of $596 million and total liquidity of approximately $759 million [15] - Significant cash uses included $189 million for capital and turnaround spending and a $70 million prepayment on the term loan [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of excess inventory on financials - Management acknowledged that excess inventory during turnaround seasons negatively impacted financial performance, estimating a 7% to 9% decline in capture rates due to timing of product sales [31][35] Question: 2026 CapEx and turnaround outlook - Management indicated that there are no major turnarounds planned for 2026, and guidance on capital spending will be provided later in the year [36] Question: Strategic focus for new leadership - Management emphasized the need for diversification and the potential for future acquisitions to mitigate reliance on a single market [40] Question: Dividend reinstatement considerations - Management expressed a desire to return to dividend payments as soon as possible, with ongoing discussions at the board level [48][51] Question: Small refinery exemptions outlook - Management discussed the ongoing challenges with small refinery exemptions and the potential for legal action if necessary, emphasizing the importance of these exemptions for rural refineries [54][56]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The US EPA issued a proposed rule for the RFS from 2026 - 2027, which is unexpectedly bullish. The total demand for raw materials is expected to grow in the next two years [20]. - There is a price premium for North American domestic raw materials over overseas raw materials in producing renewable diesel. The premium is dynamic and may widen if the RIN price rises. The bottom of the US soybean oil price is relatively stable, but there is a risk of a 10% - 20% upward fluctuation in the long - term. The demand from small refineries is uncertain [20]. - Due to the increasing biomass diesel obligation and differential subsidies for domestic and foreign raw materials, North American soybean oil and rapeseed oil will be used for biomass diesel production, while overseas raw materials will be used in the food and oleochemical markets. The price of raw materials for biomass diesel is more elastic [21]. - The US is expected to increase domestic soybean crushing and reduce soybean exports without increasing the soybean planting area. This may affect China's soybean imports, and the CBOT soybean price will be supported [22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Policy Introduction - On June 13, 2025, the US EPA issued a proposed rule for the RFS from 2026 - 2027, which led to a sharp rise in US soybean oil prices. A virtual public hearing will be held on July 8, 2025, and an additional meeting may be held on July 9, 2025 [2]. - The policy aims to provide market certainty for producers, offer lower oil prices for consumers, support the US biofuel industry, and enhance energy security and employment [3]. - The main contents of the policy include setting strong growth targets for major renewable fuels, prioritizing the US by reducing the value of foreign renewable fuels and raw materials, and canceling electricity as a qualified renewable fuel to achieve the goal of canceling the EV mandate [3]. Policy Details - The EPA proposed to set the total RV0 for 2026 at 24.02 billion RINs, an almost 8% increase from 2025, and 24.46 billion RINs for 2027, a nearly 2% increase from the previous year [5]. - The obligated quantities of biomass diesel for 2026 and 2027 are set at 5.61 billion gallons and 5.86 billion gallons respectively, exceeding market expectations [6]. - The proposed policy will increase the production of US biomass diesel, raise the operating rate, and increase the demand for raw materials [6]. Impact on Raw Material Prices and Demand - North American domestic raw materials for renewable diesel have a premium of about 10 cents per pound (about $220 per ton) over overseas raw materials. The premium is dynamic and may widen if the RIN price rises. The US soybean oil price is more volatile, and there is a risk of a 10% - 20% upward fluctuation in the long - term. The demand from small refineries is uncertain [10]. - The increasing biomass diesel obligation and differential subsidies will lead to the use of North American soybean oil and rapeseed oil for biomass diesel production, while overseas raw materials will be used in the food and oleochemical markets. The price of raw materials for biomass diesel is higher than that in other industries [11]. - Compared with 2024, the total demand for biomass diesel in 2026 is flat, and it increases in 2027. The global demand for vegetable oil is expected to increase, with North America leading the growth [13][14]. - The US may increase domestic soybean crushing and reduce soybean exports without increasing the soybean planting area. The USDA expects the 2025/26 soybean crushing volume to be 2.49 billion bushels (67.76 million tons), a 2.8% increase year - on - year. The domestic soybean crushing capacity has increased, and there is a probability of further increase by 2030. This may affect China's soybean imports, and the CBOT soybean price will be supported [18][22].