【冠通期货研究报告】 油粕日报：油粕分化 发布日期：2026 年 3 月 3 日 豆粕：AgRural：巴西 2025/26 年度大豆收割工作已完成 39%，远低于去年 同期的 50%。由于南里奥格兰德州受干旱影响导致产量下降，AgRural 将全国大 豆产量预估下调 300 万吨至 1.78 亿吨，不过仍将是历史最高纪录，同比增长 3.8%。 USDA 压榨月报：2026 年 1 月大豆压榨量为 2.278 亿蒲，环比减少 0.9%，同比增 加 7%。这一数据略高于市场预期的 2.263 亿蒲。截至 2026 年 1 月底，美国豆油 库存为 24.33 亿磅，环比增长 11.7%，同比激增 33.9%。这一数据也超过市场预 期，为 2023 年 4 月以来的最高水平。USDA 出口检验：截至 2026 年 2 月 26 日的 一周，美国大豆出口检验量为 1,137,582 吨，上周为修正后的 681,545 吨，去年 同期为 702,160 吨。2025/26 年度迄今美国大豆出口检验总量达到 26,182,723 吨，同比减少 32.2%，2025/26 年度迄今美国大豆出口达到全年出口目标的 58.4% ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall financial performance showed a decline in Adjusted EBITDA year-on-year, reflecting weaker macro conditions, with a positive free cash flow generated despite challenges [9][16][23] - Net debt ended at $3.8 billion, with a focus on cash generation and resilience in the balance sheet [7][22] - Gross margin declined by 6%, impacted by a 17% lower Rand oil price and continued pressure in chemicals pricing [23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the mining segment, EBITDA was lower due to the phaseout of export coal sales, but additional income was realized from leasing coal terminal capacity [26] - Fuels EBITDA increased, supported by higher refining margins and improved operational performance at Secunda and Natref [27] - Chemicals EBITDA generation remains under pressure due to lower prices and soft demand in global markets, with a notable decline in both Africa and America [27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Brent crude oil price decreased by 14% year-on-year, contributing to a 17% decline in the Rand oil price [16] - The oil market remains in surplus, with supply growth outpacing demand, leading to expected volatility in oil prices [17] - Chemicals faced challenges from global overcapacity and tariff uncertainties, impacting pricing and margins [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company follows a two-pillar strategy: strengthening the foundation business and positioning for long-term growth and transformation [2][4] - Progress in renewable energy includes securing over 1.2 GW in South Africa, with a target of 2 GW by 2030 [30][31] - The focus on decarbonization is pragmatic, aiming to reduce emissions while ensuring energy security and affordability [30][33] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management acknowledged the volatile business environment and emphasized the importance of execution and delivery against commitments [4][5] - There is cautious optimism for recovery in selective end markets, although the pace of decline in chemicals is slowing [18] - The company remains committed to reducing net debt and improving cash generation despite macroeconomic uncertainties [22][28] Other Important Information - The company invested approximately ZAR 200 million in social programs over the past six months, reflecting its commitment to community upliftment [14] - The company has made significant progress in safety measures, with improvements in leading indicators despite a tragic fatality [8] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: Synfuels volumes and guidance for the next financial year - Management noted that the annualized run rate in the second quarter was about 7.6 million tons, with maintenance scheduled next year [39][42] Question: Carbon tax suspension proposal - Management emphasized the importance of a carbon tax for protecting South Africa's interests and proposed a recycling mechanism for the tax [40][44] Question: MRG pricing submission and its impact on revenue - Management confirmed that the submitted pricing would be slightly more expensive than current gas, with CapEx included in the overall profile [41][46] Question: De-gearing guidance and CapEx concerns - Management reiterated the commitment to reduce net debt below $3.7 billion by year-end, despite challenges in the second half [55][61] Question: Medium-term notes repayment strategy - Management explained the decision to repay medium-term notes was part of a proactive approach to capital structure management [56][64]

Core Viewpoint - Marathon Oil reported Q4 2026 earnings that exceeded market expectations in both revenue and adjusted earnings per share, leading to a rise in stock price during pre-market trading [1][2]. Financial Performance - For Q4 2026, Marathon Oil's revenue was $33.422 billion, surpassing the market expectation of $31.981 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $4.07, significantly higher than the analyst forecast of $2.90 [2]. - The company outlined a capital allocation plan for 2026, with a total investment of $1.5 billion, of which $1.41 billion is allocated to refining and marketing [2]. Stock Performance - Over the past week (February 7 to 13, 2026), Marathon Oil's stock exhibited volatility, with a notable drop of 5.09% on February 12, closing at $198.02, followed by a rebound to $201.34 on February 13, marking a 1.68% increase [3]. - The stock reached a high of $210.32 and a low of $195.75 during this period, with a total fluctuation of 7.18%; year-to-date, the stock has risen by 23.80%, outperforming the overall oil and gas sector [3]. Institutional Perspectives - Recent ratings for Marathon Oil have been positive, with Goldman Sachs raising the target price to $211 while maintaining a "Buy" rating; Wells Fargo increased its target to $217, and BMO Capital Markets raised its target from $200 to $225, also maintaining a "Buy" rating [4]. - Citigroup adjusted its target price from $182 to $210, keeping a "Hold" rating; Goldman Sachs noted that Marathon Oil is viewed as a "crowded long" position, reflecting optimism about its cyclical recovery potential [4]. Recent Developments - On February 4, 2026, the company announced the purchase of two tankers of Venezuelan crude oil, aiming to process more heavy crude, which may increase demand and impact the supply chain [5]. - In the external environment, OPEC+ is considering a production increase in April, and geopolitical factors (such as US-Iran negotiations and production recovery post-cold snap) are supporting oil price volatility; Morgan Stanley and Barclays have recently raised their oil price forecasts to above $70, emphasizing geopolitical risk premiums and demand resilience [5].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2025, the company reported adjusted net income of $0.49 per share and Adjusted EBITDA of $258 million, reflecting a sequential improvement over prior quarters [14][19] - Cash flow from operations for the quarter was $367 million, which includes a working capital draw of approximately $80 million [17] - The company ended the quarter with $528 million in cash and approximately $1.6 billion of net debt, with a net debt to capitalization ratio of 28% [18][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Martinez refinery is on the cusp of restarting, with construction expected to be completed soon, and full operations anticipated by early March [4][30] - The company achieved $230 million in efficiencies in 2025, with an additional $120 million of run rate savings identified for 2026, totaling $350 million expected by year-end [7][8][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The market landscape for 2026 is expected to be favorable, with tight refining balances and demand growth aligning well with transportation fuel capacity additions [6][7] - The company is particularly well-suited to benefit from widening sour crude differentials, especially with the influx of Venezuelan barrels into the market [24][25] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains focused on controlling operational aspects to enhance shareholder value, emphasizing safe, reliable, and efficient operations [8][13] - The Refinery Business Improvement Initiative (RBI) is a key focus, with over 1,300 initiatives identified to improve operational efficiency [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the near-term outlook, supported by achieved efficiencies and the impending restart of the Martinez refinery [8][30] - The company anticipates a tighter product market in California, with significant gasoline and jet fuel imports needed, which positions the company favorably [28][29] Other Important Information - The company reported a $394 million gain on insurance recoveries related to the Martinez fire, bringing total recoveries in 2025 to $894 million [15] - The board approved a regular quarterly dividend of $0.275 per share, totaling $126 million in cash dividends paid in 2025 [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of Venezuelan barrels on PBF - Management highlighted that PBF consumes a significant amount of heavy and sour crude, and the influx of Venezuelan barrels is expected to positively impact the company's operations and financials [22][24] Question: Restart timeline for Martinez - Management confirmed that the construction at Martinez is nearing completion, and a methodical restart is planned, with expectations to be fully operational by early March [26][30] Question: Drivers of margin capture improvement - Management attributed the improvement in margin capture to widening crude differentials and reliable operations, which enhance the company's capture rate [34] Question: Future CapEx and turnaround schedule - Management indicated that 2026 will see a particularly heavy turnaround year, but future years are expected to normalize based on historical averages [98] Question: Insurance proceeds allocation - Management clarified that the allocation of insurance proceeds will be finalized once the claims process is complete, and current accounting conventions may not reflect the final distribution [100]

2026-02-04 美国生物柴油 45Z 政策拟议法规公布，美豆油上涨 ———— 吴小明 投资咨询号：Z0015853 国投期货研究院 燃料生产 国技期货 燃料用途与销售对象 解读：主要是为了灵活销售路径，降低交易限制。 抵免金额与计算规则 保持 50 千克（kg）CO₂e /mmBTU，调整计算范围: 限制条款： 排放系数的数学计算如下：(50 kg CO₂e /mmBTU -排放率） ÷50 kg CO₂e /mmBTU IRS 每年发布年度排放率表，动态调整不同原料 / 燃料的排放系数 解读:取消 SAF 溢价,SAF 和非 SAF 统一抵免额度。抵免金额按通胀调整因子调整,进 行通胀挂钩，对冲成本上涨。 1、适合公路车辆 / 航空使用 2、拓宽关联中介销售归属规则（如通过关联方转售也可认定为合格销售） 1、基础抵免率（未满足工资 / 学徒要求): 2026 年 1 月 1 日起统一: 20 美分 / 加 仑（SAF 与非 SAF 一致） 2、升级抵免率（满足工资 / 学徒要求）: 2026 年 1 月 1 日起统一：1.00 美元 / 加仑 (SAF 与非 SAF 一致) 3、抵免金额按通胀调整因子 ...

Wall Street analysts expect Valero Energy (VLO) to post quarterly earnings of $3.19 per share in its upcoming report, which indicates a year-over-year increase of 398.4%. Revenues are expected to be $28.9 billion, down 6% from the year-ago quarter.Over the last 30 days, there has been a downward revision of 26.1% in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter, leading to its current level. This signifies the covering analysts' collective reconsideration of their initial forecasts over the course of this time ...

Group 1 - The Canadian Advanced Biofuels Association welcomes the federal government's "Biofuel Production Incentive Program," which officially takes effect on January 1, aimed at addressing competitive pressures from the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act and clean fuel production credits [1] - The program is designed to support domestic biofuel production capacity and enhance energy security by keeping clean fuel investments and production within Canada [1] - Biofuels are recognized as an immediately deployable solution for emissions reduction, while also supporting local crops like canola and rural economic development [1] Group 2 - The federal-provincial-territorial low-carbon fuel coordination mechanism has been established, with the next critical step being the coordination of long-term policies to ensure stable growth of Canadian biofuel production [2] - Provinces play a key role in attracting biofuel production, raw material processing, and renewable fuel infrastructure investments, while ensuring farmers and rural communities benefit from long-term employment and income [2] - The association calls for active participation from provinces and territories in policy discussions to create a durable and stable long-term investment framework to protect existing production facilities and attract new capital [2]

Core Insights - The global energy landscape in 2026 is characterized by a shift from short-term price volatility to long-term structural transformation and competitiveness building [2][6] - Traditional oil and gas companies are adopting a more cautious approach to capital expenditure, focusing on asset optimization and financial health amid concerns of oversupply and economic outlook [3][6] - The low-carbon technology sector is experiencing accelerated investment, with a clear "dual-track" approach emerging between traditional energy and low-carbon initiatives [4][6] Traditional Energy Market Pressures - International oil prices have not seen a positive start in 2026, primarily due to concerns over oversupply and economic prospects, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions [3] - The U.S. oil production remains at historical highs, contributing to a bearish sentiment in the market, with both New York and Brent crude futures declining over the week [3] - Companies are increasingly adopting strategic restructuring and maintenance to enhance operational efficiency and ensure financial stability in response to market uncertainties [3] Low-Carbon Technology Developments - 2026 is viewed as a pivotal year for Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS), with several major projects expected to make final investment decisions, contingent on stable policy support [4] - The clean fuel and green hydrogen sectors are moving from conceptual stages to actual projects, with companies like Topsoe and Ecopetrol advancing initiatives aimed at reducing carbon emissions [4] - Engineering firms are strengthening their capabilities in sustainable fuels and circular chemistry through acquisitions and integrations [4] Carbon Policy and Market Dynamics - The global carbon management landscape is undergoing leadership reshaping and mechanism deepening, with major economies expected to take a more active role in climate discussions [5] - The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is set to implement carbon pricing, providing practical incentives for affected countries [5] - New compliance carbon pricing mechanisms are anticipated to launch in 2026, with the potential for accelerated international carbon trading [5] Overall Energy Transition Trends - The focus is shifting towards deep structural adjustments in the energy industry and systematic competitiveness building, moving away from short-term oil price fluctuations [6] - Traditional oil and gas companies are expected to refine their capital expenditures, concentrating on core asset efficiency and cost optimization [6] - The success of low-carbon technologies will depend on establishing scalable business models, supported by favorable policies and market conditions [6]

Core Viewpoint - The successful delivery of 38 tons of hydrogenated vegetable oil fuel by China Resources Recycling Group's subsidiary marks the first business operation of this renewable diesel supply in Hong Kong, aimed at supporting the airport's commitment to becoming the world's most environmentally friendly airport [1] Group 1: Company Operations - China Resources Recycling Group's subsidiary, China Resources International Development Co., Ltd., has successfully supplied hydrogenated vegetable oil fuel to Hong Kong International Airport for ground handling equipment [1] - The company has ensured a comprehensive supply chain management, coordinating upstream raw material supply, midstream production, and downstream delivery to meet compliance and timely supply requirements [1] Group 2: Environmental Impact - Hydrogenated vegetable oil, also known as renewable diesel, is produced from waste animal and plant oils through advanced hydrogenation technology and is compatible with diesel engines without requiring modifications [1] - This renewable diesel can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 87% compared to petroleum-based diesel [1] - The Hong Kong Airport Authority plans to launch a renewable diesel pilot program in 2024, utilizing hydrogenated vegetable oil fuel to fulfill its commitment to achieving net-zero carbon emissions [1] Group 3: Strategic Goals - The company aims to leverage the advantages of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area to facilitate a low-carbon energy green supply chain [1] - The initiative contributes to the global transition towards green and low-carbon solutions, aligning with the airport's mid-term carbon reduction goals [1]

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - South American soybean sowing is progressing smoothly with a high - yield expectation. U.S. soybeans have resumed sales to China, but the sales progress is significantly lower than the same period last year, leading to continued weakness in U.S. soybeans. Rumors of imported soybean reserves release after New Year's Day and the pre - placement of some February reserves to January have weakened the near - month spot market. The far - month contracts are expected to remain weak with no sign of all bad news being priced in [2]. - Indonesia's biofuel policy has limited development space due to poor economic viability. The implementation of the U.S. renewable diesel tax credit policy in January can enhance the competitiveness of U.S. biodiesel. After a short - term rebound in the oil and fat sector following crude oil, the futures - spot basis has narrowed. The subsequent upward drive of the market depends on the U.S. biofuel policy. Short - term spot purchases can be made appropriately, but conservative operations are recommended before the U.S. biofuel policy is fully implemented [2][3]. Summaries Based on Related Content Soybean Meal - The estimated output of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop is 178.3 million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate, with a forecast range of 174.1 - 182.6 million tons [1]. - As of the week ending December 11, U.S. soybean export sales totaled a net increase of 2.4247 million tons, in line with expectations. Current - market - year soybean export sales increased by 54% from the previous week and 69% from the four - week average, with net sales to the Chinese mainland at 1.383 million tons. Next - year's soybean export sales had a net increase of 28,500 tons. U.S. soybean exports for shipment were 721,300 tons, down 33% from the previous week and 31% from the four - week average, with 202,000 tons shipped to the Chinese mainland. Current - market - year new soybean sales were 2.4189 million tons, and next - market - year new sales were 28,500 tons [1]. Oils and Fats - Indonesia's biofuel quota for 2026 is 15.646 million kiloliters, slightly higher than the 15.6 million kiloliters in 2025 [2]. - The market speculates that the Trump administration will decide on the 45Z tax credit for sustainable aviation fuel next week. Since January 1, U.S. biodiesel producers' tax credit will increase to 64 cents per gallon, and renewable diesel producers' to 53 cents per gallon [2].