1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The export of US soybeans continues to show a strong trend, while the production in Brazil is slightly reduced. The expected dry weather in Argentina also supports the strong market trend. Before the soybean reserve release is confirmed, the market will mainly remain volatile [2]. - The tense situation in the Middle East has driven up crude oil prices, which in turn has led to a rebound in the oil market. It is expected that the oil market will remain strong in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East situation [3] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Soybean Meal - As of March 3, 2026, AgRural reported that the 2025/26 soybean harvest in Brazil was 39% complete, far lower than 50% in the same period last year. Due to the drought in Rio Grande do Sul, AgRural lowered the national soybean production forecast by 3 million tons to 178 million tons, but it will still be a record high, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [1]. - According to the USDA压榨月报, the soybean crushing volume in the US in January 2026 was 227.8 million bushels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 7%, slightly higher than the market expectation of 226.3 million bushels [1]. - As of the end of January 2026, the US soybean oil inventory was 2.433 billion pounds, a month - on - month increase of 11.7% and a year - on - year surge of 33.9%, the highest level since April 2023 and exceeding market expectations [1]. - As of the week ending February 26, 2026, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1,137,582 tons, compared with the revised 681,545 tons last week and 702,160 tons in the same period last year. As of now in the 2025/26 season, the total US soybean export inspection volume has reached 26,182,723 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.2%, and the US soybean exports have reached 58.4% of the annual export target [1]. 3.2 Oils - According to five industry traders, India's palm oil imports in February increased 10.1% month - on - month to 844,000 tons, reaching a six - month high. India's soybean oil imports in February increased 8.7% month - on - month to 303,000 tons, while its sunflower oil imports in February decreased 45.3% month - on - month to 146,000 tons. India's total edible oil imports in February decreased 1.4% month - on - month to 1.29 million tons [2]. - EIA data showed that about 2.8 billion pounds of renewable raw materials were used to produce biodiesel, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel in December, similar to November but significantly lower than nearly 3.4 billion pounds in December 2024 [2].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall financial performance showed a decline in Adjusted EBITDA year-on-year, reflecting weaker macro conditions, with a positive free cash flow generated despite challenges [9][16][23] - Net debt ended at $3.8 billion, with a focus on cash generation and resilience in the balance sheet [7][22] - Gross margin declined by 6%, impacted by a 17% lower Rand oil price and continued pressure in chemicals pricing [23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the mining segment, EBITDA was lower due to the phaseout of export coal sales, but additional income was realized from leasing coal terminal capacity [26] - Fuels EBITDA increased, supported by higher refining margins and improved operational performance at Secunda and Natref [27] - Chemicals EBITDA generation remains under pressure due to lower prices and soft demand in global markets, with a notable decline in both Africa and America [27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Brent crude oil price decreased by 14% year-on-year, contributing to a 17% decline in the Rand oil price [16] - The oil market remains in surplus, with supply growth outpacing demand, leading to expected volatility in oil prices [17] - Chemicals faced challenges from global overcapacity and tariff uncertainties, impacting pricing and margins [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company follows a two-pillar strategy: strengthening the foundation business and positioning for long-term growth and transformation [2][4] - Progress in renewable energy includes securing over 1.2 GW in South Africa, with a target of 2 GW by 2030 [30][31] - The focus on decarbonization is pragmatic, aiming to reduce emissions while ensuring energy security and affordability [30][33] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management acknowledged the volatile business environment and emphasized the importance of execution and delivery against commitments [4][5] - There is cautious optimism for recovery in selective end markets, although the pace of decline in chemicals is slowing [18] - The company remains committed to reducing net debt and improving cash generation despite macroeconomic uncertainties [22][28] Other Important Information - The company invested approximately ZAR 200 million in social programs over the past six months, reflecting its commitment to community upliftment [14] - The company has made significant progress in safety measures, with improvements in leading indicators despite a tragic fatality [8] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: Synfuels volumes and guidance for the next financial year - Management noted that the annualized run rate in the second quarter was about 7.6 million tons, with maintenance scheduled next year [39][42] Question: Carbon tax suspension proposal - Management emphasized the importance of a carbon tax for protecting South Africa's interests and proposed a recycling mechanism for the tax [40][44] Question: MRG pricing submission and its impact on revenue - Management confirmed that the submitted pricing would be slightly more expensive than current gas, with CapEx included in the overall profile [41][46] Question: De-gearing guidance and CapEx concerns - Management reiterated the commitment to reduce net debt below $3.7 billion by year-end, despite challenges in the second half [55][61] Question: Medium-term notes repayment strategy - Management explained the decision to repay medium-term notes was part of a proactive approach to capital structure management [56][64]

Core Viewpoint - Marathon Oil reported Q4 2026 earnings that exceeded market expectations in both revenue and adjusted earnings per share, leading to a rise in stock price during pre-market trading [1][2]. Financial Performance - For Q4 2026, Marathon Oil's revenue was $33.422 billion, surpassing the market expectation of $31.981 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $4.07, significantly higher than the analyst forecast of $2.90 [2]. - The company outlined a capital allocation plan for 2026, with a total investment of $1.5 billion, of which $1.41 billion is allocated to refining and marketing [2]. Stock Performance - Over the past week (February 7 to 13, 2026), Marathon Oil's stock exhibited volatility, with a notable drop of 5.09% on February 12, closing at $198.02, followed by a rebound to $201.34 on February 13, marking a 1.68% increase [3]. - The stock reached a high of $210.32 and a low of $195.75 during this period, with a total fluctuation of 7.18%; year-to-date, the stock has risen by 23.80%, outperforming the overall oil and gas sector [3]. Institutional Perspectives - Recent ratings for Marathon Oil have been positive, with Goldman Sachs raising the target price to $211 while maintaining a "Buy" rating; Wells Fargo increased its target to $217, and BMO Capital Markets raised its target from $200 to $225, also maintaining a "Buy" rating [4]. - Citigroup adjusted its target price from $182 to $210, keeping a "Hold" rating; Goldman Sachs noted that Marathon Oil is viewed as a "crowded long" position, reflecting optimism about its cyclical recovery potential [4]. Recent Developments - On February 4, 2026, the company announced the purchase of two tankers of Venezuelan crude oil, aiming to process more heavy crude, which may increase demand and impact the supply chain [5]. - In the external environment, OPEC+ is considering a production increase in April, and geopolitical factors (such as US-Iran negotiations and production recovery post-cold snap) are supporting oil price volatility; Morgan Stanley and Barclays have recently raised their oil price forecasts to above $70, emphasizing geopolitical risk premiums and demand resilience [5].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2025, the company reported adjusted net income of $0.49 per share and Adjusted EBITDA of $258 million, reflecting a sequential improvement over prior quarters [14][19] - Cash flow from operations for the quarter was $367 million, which includes a working capital draw of approximately $80 million [17] - The company ended the quarter with $528 million in cash and approximately $1.6 billion of net debt, with a net debt to capitalization ratio of 28% [18][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Martinez refinery is on the cusp of restarting, with construction expected to be completed soon, and full operations anticipated by early March [4][30] - The company achieved $230 million in efficiencies in 2025, with an additional $120 million of run rate savings identified for 2026, totaling $350 million expected by year-end [7][8][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The market landscape for 2026 is expected to be favorable, with tight refining balances and demand growth aligning well with transportation fuel capacity additions [6][7] - The company is particularly well-suited to benefit from widening sour crude differentials, especially with the influx of Venezuelan barrels into the market [24][25] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains focused on controlling operational aspects to enhance shareholder value, emphasizing safe, reliable, and efficient operations [8][13] - The Refinery Business Improvement Initiative (RBI) is a key focus, with over 1,300 initiatives identified to improve operational efficiency [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the near-term outlook, supported by achieved efficiencies and the impending restart of the Martinez refinery [8][30] - The company anticipates a tighter product market in California, with significant gasoline and jet fuel imports needed, which positions the company favorably [28][29] Other Important Information - The company reported a $394 million gain on insurance recoveries related to the Martinez fire, bringing total recoveries in 2025 to $894 million [15] - The board approved a regular quarterly dividend of $0.275 per share, totaling $126 million in cash dividends paid in 2025 [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of Venezuelan barrels on PBF - Management highlighted that PBF consumes a significant amount of heavy and sour crude, and the influx of Venezuelan barrels is expected to positively impact the company's operations and financials [22][24] Question: Restart timeline for Martinez - Management confirmed that the construction at Martinez is nearing completion, and a methodical restart is planned, with expectations to be fully operational by early March [26][30] Question: Drivers of margin capture improvement - Management attributed the improvement in margin capture to widening crude differentials and reliable operations, which enhance the company's capture rate [34] Question: Future CapEx and turnaround schedule - Management indicated that 2026 will see a particularly heavy turnaround year, but future years are expected to normalize based on historical averages [98] Question: Insurance proceeds allocation - Management clarified that the allocation of insurance proceeds will be finalized once the claims process is complete, and current accounting conventions may not reflect the final distribution [100]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is about the proposed regulations of the US biodiesel 45Z policy and the rise of US soybean oil prices [1] Group 2: Fuel Production and Policy Details Fuel Use and Sales - The policy aims to flex sales paths and reduce trading restrictions [6] Credit Amount and Calculation Rules - Maintain 50 kg CO₂e/mmBTU and adjust the calculation scope. The IRS releases an annual emission rate table to dynamically adjust emission factors [8] - Cancel the SAF premium, unify the credit amount for SAF and non - SAF. Adjust the credit amount by the inflation adjustment factor [8] Eligibility and Credit Rates - Suitable for road vehicles and aviation. Broaden the rules for affiliated intermediary sales [9] - Basic credit rate (not meeting wage/apprentice requirements): 20 cents/gallon for SAF and non - SAF from January 1, 2026 [10] - Upgraded credit rate (meeting wage/apprentice requirements): $1.00/gallon for SAF and non - SAF from January 1, 2026 [10] - Credit amount is adjusted by the inflation adjustment factor. The actual credit = credit amount × fuel emission factor (lower emissions, higher credit) [10] Fuel Emission Factor Calculation - Exclude indirect land use change (ILUC). Use specific emission rates for animal manure - derived fuels [10] Group 3: US Raw Material Demand and Import 2024 Import Data - Total raw material usage for biodiesel and renewable diesel is 17260000 tons. Vegetable oil usage is 10200000 tons, and animal fat usage is 7060000 tons [16] - For soybean oil, 6040000 tons are used, with 3360000 tons for biodiesel and 2690000 tons for renewable diesel. Import sources include Canada and Mexico [16] 2025 (January - November) Import Data - Total raw material usage for biodiesel and renewable diesel is 12370000 tons. Vegetable oil usage is 6790000 tons, and animal fat usage is 5580000 tons [17] - For soybean oil, 4160000 tons are used, with 2420000 tons for biodiesel and 1740000 tons for renewable diesel. Import sources mainly include Canada and Mexico [17] Group 4: Impact Assessment - US - Canada - Mexico UCO can get a 0.6 - cent/lb subsidy. Non - US - Canada - Mexico UCO needs to be about 7 cents/lb (154 dollars/ton) cheaper to offset the subsidy difference [21] - US - Canada - Mexico soybean oil can get a 0.5 - cent/lb subsidy. Non - US - Canada - Mexico soybean oil needs to be about 6 - 7 cents/lb (132 - 154 dollars/ton) cheaper to offset the subsidy difference [21] - Due to the expansion of sustainable aviation fuel in overseas markets, it's expected that non - US - Canada - Mexico raw materials may not have an independent weak market [21]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts expect Valero Energy to report quarterly earnings of $3.19 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 398.4%, while revenues are projected to be $28.9 billion, down 6% from the previous year [1]. Earnings Estimates - Over the last 30 days, there has been a downward revision of 26.1% in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter, indicating a significant reconsideration by analysts of their initial forecasts [2]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting potential investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong relationship between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price performance [3]. Revenue Projections - Total operating revenues from Refining are expected to be $28.35 billion, indicating a decrease of 3.4% year-over-year [5]. - Total operating revenues from Ethanol are projected at $1.12 billion, suggesting a slight increase of 0.6% year-over-year [5]. - Total operating revenues from Renewable diesel are estimated to reach $1.13 billion, reflecting a decrease of 9.3% from the previous year [5]. Throughput Volumes - U.S. Gulf Coast region throughput volumes per day are estimated at 1,809.17 thousand barrels, down from 1,829.00 thousand barrels in the same quarter last year [6]. - U.S. Mid-Continent region throughput volumes per day are projected at 430.91 thousand barrels, compared to 473.00 thousand barrels a year ago [7]. - North Atlantic region throughput volumes per day are expected to be 493.44 thousand barrels, up from 434.00 thousand barrels in the same quarter last year [8]. - Refining throughput volumes per day are forecasted to reach 2,968.15 thousand barrels, slightly down from 2,995.00 thousand barrels in the same quarter last year [9]. - U.S. West Coast region throughput volumes per day are estimated at 251.90 thousand barrels, compared to 259.00 thousand barrels a year ago [10]. Refining Margins - U.S. Mid-Continent region refining margin per barrel of throughput is expected to be $10.34, up from $6.97 in the same quarter last year [7]. - North Atlantic region refining margin per barrel of throughput is projected at $15.85, compared to $11.85 in the same quarter last year [8]. - U.S. West Coast region refining margin per barrel of throughput is expected to reach $11.82, significantly up from $5.80 in the same quarter last year [9]. - U.S. Gulf Coast region refining margin per barrel of throughput is estimated at $12.38, compared to $8.39 in the same quarter last year [11]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of Valero Energy have returned +14.1%, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.2% change [11].

Group 1 - The Canadian Advanced Biofuels Association welcomes the federal government's "Biofuel Production Incentive Program," which officially takes effect on January 1, aimed at addressing competitive pressures from the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act and clean fuel production credits [1] - The program is designed to support domestic biofuel production capacity and enhance energy security by keeping clean fuel investments and production within Canada [1] - Biofuels are recognized as an immediately deployable solution for emissions reduction, while also supporting local crops like canola and rural economic development [1] Group 2 - The federal-provincial-territorial low-carbon fuel coordination mechanism has been established, with the next critical step being the coordination of long-term policies to ensure stable growth of Canadian biofuel production [2] - Provinces play a key role in attracting biofuel production, raw material processing, and renewable fuel infrastructure investments, while ensuring farmers and rural communities benefit from long-term employment and income [2] - The association calls for active participation from provinces and territories in policy discussions to create a durable and stable long-term investment framework to protect existing production facilities and attract new capital [2]

Core Insights - The global energy landscape in 2026 is characterized by a shift from short-term price volatility to long-term structural transformation and competitiveness building [2][6] - Traditional oil and gas companies are adopting a more cautious approach to capital expenditure, focusing on asset optimization and financial health amid concerns of oversupply and economic outlook [3][6] - The low-carbon technology sector is experiencing accelerated investment, with a clear "dual-track" approach emerging between traditional energy and low-carbon initiatives [4][6] Traditional Energy Market Pressures - International oil prices have not seen a positive start in 2026, primarily due to concerns over oversupply and economic prospects, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions [3] - The U.S. oil production remains at historical highs, contributing to a bearish sentiment in the market, with both New York and Brent crude futures declining over the week [3] - Companies are increasingly adopting strategic restructuring and maintenance to enhance operational efficiency and ensure financial stability in response to market uncertainties [3] Low-Carbon Technology Developments - 2026 is viewed as a pivotal year for Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS), with several major projects expected to make final investment decisions, contingent on stable policy support [4] - The clean fuel and green hydrogen sectors are moving from conceptual stages to actual projects, with companies like Topsoe and Ecopetrol advancing initiatives aimed at reducing carbon emissions [4] - Engineering firms are strengthening their capabilities in sustainable fuels and circular chemistry through acquisitions and integrations [4] Carbon Policy and Market Dynamics - The global carbon management landscape is undergoing leadership reshaping and mechanism deepening, with major economies expected to take a more active role in climate discussions [5] - The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is set to implement carbon pricing, providing practical incentives for affected countries [5] - New compliance carbon pricing mechanisms are anticipated to launch in 2026, with the potential for accelerated international carbon trading [5] Overall Energy Transition Trends - The focus is shifting towards deep structural adjustments in the energy industry and systematic competitiveness building, moving away from short-term oil price fluctuations [6] - Traditional oil and gas companies are expected to refine their capital expenditures, concentrating on core asset efficiency and cost optimization [6] - The success of low-carbon technologies will depend on establishing scalable business models, supported by favorable policies and market conditions [6]

Core Viewpoint - The successful delivery of 38 tons of hydrogenated vegetable oil fuel by China Resources Recycling Group's subsidiary marks the first business operation of this renewable diesel supply in Hong Kong, aimed at supporting the airport's commitment to becoming the world's most environmentally friendly airport [1] Group 1: Company Operations - China Resources Recycling Group's subsidiary, China Resources International Development Co., Ltd., has successfully supplied hydrogenated vegetable oil fuel to Hong Kong International Airport for ground handling equipment [1] - The company has ensured a comprehensive supply chain management, coordinating upstream raw material supply, midstream production, and downstream delivery to meet compliance and timely supply requirements [1] Group 2: Environmental Impact - Hydrogenated vegetable oil, also known as renewable diesel, is produced from waste animal and plant oils through advanced hydrogenation technology and is compatible with diesel engines without requiring modifications [1] - This renewable diesel can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 87% compared to petroleum-based diesel [1] - The Hong Kong Airport Authority plans to launch a renewable diesel pilot program in 2024, utilizing hydrogenated vegetable oil fuel to fulfill its commitment to achieving net-zero carbon emissions [1] Group 3: Strategic Goals - The company aims to leverage the advantages of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area to facilitate a low-carbon energy green supply chain [1] - The initiative contributes to the global transition towards green and low-carbon solutions, aligning with the airport's mid-term carbon reduction goals [1]

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - South American soybean sowing is progressing smoothly with a high - yield expectation. U.S. soybeans have resumed sales to China, but the sales progress is significantly lower than the same period last year, leading to continued weakness in U.S. soybeans. Rumors of imported soybean reserves release after New Year's Day and the pre - placement of some February reserves to January have weakened the near - month spot market. The far - month contracts are expected to remain weak with no sign of all bad news being priced in [2]. - Indonesia's biofuel policy has limited development space due to poor economic viability. The implementation of the U.S. renewable diesel tax credit policy in January can enhance the competitiveness of U.S. biodiesel. After a short - term rebound in the oil and fat sector following crude oil, the futures - spot basis has narrowed. The subsequent upward drive of the market depends on the U.S. biofuel policy. Short - term spot purchases can be made appropriately, but conservative operations are recommended before the U.S. biofuel policy is fully implemented [2][3]. Summaries Based on Related Content Soybean Meal - The estimated output of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop is 178.3 million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate, with a forecast range of 174.1 - 182.6 million tons [1]. - As of the week ending December 11, U.S. soybean export sales totaled a net increase of 2.4247 million tons, in line with expectations. Current - market - year soybean export sales increased by 54% from the previous week and 69% from the four - week average, with net sales to the Chinese mainland at 1.383 million tons. Next - year's soybean export sales had a net increase of 28,500 tons. U.S. soybean exports for shipment were 721,300 tons, down 33% from the previous week and 31% from the four - week average, with 202,000 tons shipped to the Chinese mainland. Current - market - year new soybean sales were 2.4189 million tons, and next - market - year new sales were 28,500 tons [1]. Oils and Fats - Indonesia's biofuel quota for 2026 is 15.646 million kiloliters, slightly higher than the 15.6 million kiloliters in 2025 [2]. - The market speculates that the Trump administration will decide on the 45Z tax credit for sustainable aviation fuel next week. Since January 1, U.S. biodiesel producers' tax credit will increase to 64 cents per gallon, and renewable diesel producers' to 53 cents per gallon [2].