Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and gas sector and a "Buy" rating for several chemical companies [6]. Core Views - The overall price spread in the industry improved in May 2025, with the CCPI-oil price spread at approximately 731, reflecting a 30% improvement compared to the past decade [2][15]. - The report anticipates a recovery point for chemical cyclical products in the second half of 2025, driven by demand recovery and significant slowdown in capital expenditure [2][3]. Summary by Sections Demand Side - The domestic PMI for May 2025 was reported at 49.5, indicating a potential recovery in demand alongside easing tariffs [3][18]. - The report highlights that while the real estate sector remains weak, sectors like automotive and home appliances are showing positive growth due to domestic consumption policies [18]. Supply Side - Capital expenditure in the chemical raw materials and products sector showed a year-on-year increase of 1.3% from January to April 2025, but the growth rate is declining [3][37]. - The report suggests that the industry is entering a self-adjustment phase, with some sectors nearing capacity inflection points [3][37]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the second half of 2025 may mark the beginning of an upward trend, focusing on resilient demand and improved market conditions [5][42]. - Recommended stocks include China Petroleum, Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and others, particularly in sectors like refrigerants and isocyanates, which are expected to see early optimization [5][9]. Monthly Price Changes - In May, several products, including urea and TDI, saw price increases due to supply constraints and export demand [4][43]. - The report notes that while some products are experiencing price increases, others like methyl trichlorosilane are facing price declines due to weak demand [4][43]. Key Sub-industry Review - The oil and gas sector experienced fluctuations in prices, with Brent crude oil prices showing a slight recovery after initial declines [49]. - The report indicates that OPEC+ has adjusted production targets, which may impact future oil prices [49][56].

证券研究报告 基础材料/能源 需求仍有承压，部分品种供给端改善 华泰研究 2025 年 3 月 12 日│中国内地 行业月报 2025 年 2 月行业整体价差偏弱，部分产品在供给端改善下价格有所上涨 25 年 2 月末 CCPI-原油价差约 456，处于 2012 年以来 30%以下分位数， 受油价相对高位以及供需偏弱等影响价差仍有承压。2 月提价产品主要系甲 基三氯硅烷、氯化钾、硫磺等供给端受限的品种，受传统淡季影响多数产品 价格价差仍处于偏弱水平。我们认为，近期部分产品库存有所消化，或迎来 节后开工的补库需求以及春耕备货；长期伴随国内地产、消费等领域政策端 持续发力，终端需求有望逐步迎来改善，叠加供给侧自我调整，2025 年或 迎复苏起点，成本减压及需求改善的下游环节或率先复苏。 行业供需错配压力仍存，PMI 转为荣枯线以上 据国家统计局，2024 年 1-12 月化学原料与化学制品业固定资产完成额累计 同比+8.6%，虽仍处于近十年以来相对高位，但增速较 21-23 年已有所放缓。 我们认为，竞争程度的加剧导致 22H2 以来化工多数子行业盈利中枢显著下 移，企业资本开支意愿或逐步降低，行业供给侧有望迎 ...