行 华福证券 基础化工 2026 年 03 月 01 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 基础化工 行业周报：乐天百万吨级乙烯装置将关停，巴斯 夫再度调高 MDI 报价 投资要点： 本周板块行情：本周，上证综合指数上涨 1.98%，创业板指数上涨 1.05%， 沪深 300 上涨 1.08%，中信基础化工指数上涨 6.21%，申万化工指数上涨 7.15%。 化工各子行业板块涨跌幅：本周，化工板块涨跌幅前五的子行业分别为磷 肥及磷化工(18.51%)、纯碱(14.02%)、复合肥(13.17%)、钛白粉(10.63%)、有机 硅(9.76%)；化工板块涨跌幅后五的子行业分别为印染化学品(1.39%)、涂料油 墨颜料(1.81%)、改性塑料(2.13%)、轮胎(2.63%)、涤纶(2.75%)。 本周行业主要动态： 乐天百万吨级乙烯装置将关停。韩国政府 2 月 25 日宣布提供 2.1 万亿韩 元(约合人民币 100 亿元)的财政和税收支持，用于乐天化学公司和 HD 现代 化学公司在大山工业园区的重组项目。这是韩国石化行业大规模自救计划 中首个获批的重组项目。根据重组计划，乐天化学将把位于韩国忠清南道 的大仙 ...

证券研究报告 交通运输 | 物流 非金融|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 25 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 SAC：S1350525070001 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 高树根 gaoshugen@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | 2026 | 年 | 02 | 月 24 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | 12.90 | | | 一 年 内 最 / 最 | 高 | 低 | | | | | | （元） | | | | | 13.35/9.00 | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | 5,901.62 | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The basic chemical sector has experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.27%, the ChiNext Index down 3.28%, and the CSI 300 down 1.33% during the week [2][14] - Key developments include the H-share listing of Guoen Co., Ltd. and a 20% capacity expansion of TDI at Covestro's Shanghai base [4][5] Industry Performance Overview - The chemical sector's performance this week shows the top five sub-industries with gains: Tires (1.69%), Coatings and Inks (0.13%), Other Chemical Products III (0%), Food and Feed Additives (-0.14%), and Synthetic Resins (-0.25%) [3][17] - The bottom five sub-industries with losses include Viscose (-5.79%), Titanium Dioxide (-4.24%), Pesticides (-4.03%), Phosphate Fertilizers and Phosphate Chemicals (-3.91%), and Membrane Materials (-3.79%) [3][17] Key Industry Dynamics - Guoen Co., Ltd. has officially listed its H-shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a new chapter in its capital market strategy [4] - Covestro has completed a major capacity expansion for TDI production at its Shanghai facility, increasing annual capacity from 310,000 tons to 370,000 tons, a nearly 20% increase [4] Investment Themes - Investment Theme 1: The domestic tire sector shows strong competitiveness, with notable companies such as Sailun Tire, Senqcia, General Motors, and Linglong Tire worth monitoring [5] - Investment Theme 2: The consumer electronics sector is expected to gradually recover, with upstream material companies likely to benefit. Key companies include Dongcai Technology, Stik, Lite-On Optoelectronics, and Ruile New Materials [5] - Investment Theme 3: Focus on resilient cyclical industries and inventory destocking leading to a potential bottom reversal, particularly in phosphate and fluorochemical sectors [5] - Investment Theme 4: As the economy improves and demand recovers, leading companies in the chemical sector are expected to benefit significantly [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant growth and performance of the Tianhong Chemical ETF (159133), which has seen a notable increase in both scale and share volume recently [1] - As of December 18, the Tianhong Chemical ETF has experienced a scale growth of 36.79 million yuan and a share increase of 27 million units over the past week, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The ETF has recorded continuous net inflows over the last three days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 21.03 million yuan, totaling 28.14 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The Tianhong Chemical ETF tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, which selects listed companies in sectors such as chemical products, chemical fibers, fertilizers, and pesticides, reflecting the overall performance of the chemical industry [1] - The index is characterized by high industry concentration and representativeness, providing an effective reference tool for investors interested in the dynamics of the chemical industry [1] Group 3 - The Tianjin Sinopec South Port Ethylene Project has received its first shipment of imported ethane, marking the operational commencement of its raw material supply system [2] - This development is significant as it aligns with the national energy and chemical strategy during a critical transition period [2] - Huazhang Securities notes that domestic organic silicon capacity is peaking, while leading companies are driving industry recovery, and there is a potential rebound in the polyester chain's prosperity [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the chemical industry [7]. Core Views - The report highlights the strong competitiveness of domestic tire companies and suggests focusing on scarce growth targets within the tire sector [4]. - It anticipates a gradual recovery in consumer electronics, recommending attention to upstream material companies [4]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of certain cyclical industries and the potential for inventory destocking to lead to a bottom reversal [5]. - It notes the positive outlook for leading chemical companies as the economy improves and demand recovers, suggesting that these companies will benefit significantly [9]. - The report also points out supply disruptions in vitamin products, particularly due to BASF's announcement regarding vitamin A and E supply issues [9]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 1.86%. The CSI 300 Index saw a rise of 1.28%. The CITIC Basic Chemical Index fell by 0.47%, and the Shenwan Chemical Index increased by 0.13% [15]. - The top five performing sub-industries in the chemical sector included tires (6.31%), soda ash (3.33%), rubber additives (3.28%), potassium fertilizer (2.2%), and modified plastics (1.68%). The bottom five were organic silicon (-4.55%), nylon (-2.3%), other chemical raw materials (-1.71%), other chemical products III (-1.37%), and viscose (-1.34%) [18]. Key Industry Dynamics - Hunstman announced a price increase of €350/ton for all MDI products in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East, effective immediately due to ongoing pressures from raw material, energy, and logistics costs [3]. - Brazil initiated an anti-dumping investigation against Chinese butyl acrylate, which may impact trade dynamics in the chemical sector [3]. Investment Themes - **Tires**: Domestic tire companies are noted for their strong competitive position, with specific companies like Sailun, Senqcia, General Tire, and Linglong Tire recommended for attention [4]. - **Consumer Electronics**: A recovery in demand is expected, with upstream material companies in the panel supply chain highlighted for potential benefits [4]. - **Cyclical Industries**: The report suggests focusing on industries with strong resilience and potential for inventory destocking, particularly in phosphate and fluorine chemicals [5]. - **Leading Chemical Companies**: As the economy improves, leading companies like Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Baofeng Energy are expected to benefit from demand recovery and price stabilization [9]. - **Vitamins**: Supply disruptions in vitamin A and E due to BASF's announcement are noted, with companies like Zhejiang Medicine and New Hope Liuhe recommended for monitoring [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates significant profit growth channels by 2026 through innovation, expansion of product applications, and potential recovery in the chemical industry [1] Group 1: Profit Growth Channels - The company plans to enhance the capacity utilization of polyether amines and polyether products by innovating and expanding the application fields of small variety polyether amines [1] - The completion and production of the 35,000-ton alkyl glycoside expansion project will contribute to incremental growth [1] - The continuous expansion of flake and granular alkyl glycosides in the cosmetics sector is expected to drive revenue [1] - A full recovery in the chemical industry next year could lead to an overall increase in the company's earnings [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the chemical industry is expected to gradually recover from its current bottoming-out phase, supported by improving supply and demand dynamics [1] - Domestic capital expenditure has entered the second half, and the trend of "anti-involution" is progressing, which is likely to enhance supply support in the future [1] - Demand is stabilizing domestically, and the rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may also support future demand expectations and the actual economic fundamentals [1] Group 2 - The Chemical Leader ETF (516220) tracks a sub-index of the chemical industry (000813), which includes listed companies in sectors such as fertilizers, pesticides, and coatings, reflecting the overall performance of the chemical sector [1] - The sub-index focuses on the chemical industry and includes key sub-sectors, selecting representative companies to showcase the market value and growth potential of the chemical industry [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai Zhongzheng Sub-Sector Chemical Industry Theme ETF Connect C (012731) and A (012730) [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yangfan New Materials announced that its daily operations are currently managed by the executive team, with Chairman Fan Bin and other board members fulfilling their duties normally. The company is unaware of any developments regarding recent matters [2] Group 1: Company Overview - Yangfan New Materials was founded in December 2002 in the Hangzhou Bay Shangyu Economic and Technological Development Zone, specializing in the research, production, and sales of UV-curable new materials and sulfur-containing fine chemical new materials. The company was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on April 12, 2017 [2] - The controlling shareholder of Yangfan New Materials is Zhejiang Yangfan Holding Group Co., Ltd., which held 22.04% of the shares as of June 30, 2025. The actual controllers are Fan Peiren, Yang Meiyi, and Fan Bin, with the family holding a total of 36.50% of the shares through various entities [2] Group 2: Management and Leadership - Fan Peiren, born in 1953, has a master's degree and has held various positions in the chemical industry, including General Manager and Chairman of Zhejiang Shouerfu Chemical Co., Ltd. He has been involved in the chemical industry for over 50 years [3][5] - Fan Bin, born in 1979, is a master's degree holder and currently serves as the Chairman of Yangfan New Materials. He has a career path similar to that of his father, primarily working within the family business [3] Group 3: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Yangfan New Materials reported revenue of 473 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.93%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 23.14 million yuan, compared to a loss of 21.24 million yuan in the same period last year, indicating a turnaround [5][6] - The increase in performance is attributed to the recovery in demand for photoinitiators in downstream industries such as PCB and coatings, leading to a gradual increase in product prices and sales volume [6] Group 4: Market Reaction - On August 26, 2025, Yangfan New Materials' stock opened down 8.97%, with a closing decline of 5.67%, bringing the total market capitalization to 3.554 billion yuan [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry is experiencing weak price differentials as of July, with supply-side adjustments expected to accelerate, potentially improving profitability in the future [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - As of the end of July 2025, the CCPI - crude oil price differential is approximately 294, which is below the 30th percentile since 2012 [1] - Global macroeconomic tensions are causing high volatility in oil prices, while most downstream chemical products are entering a demand off-season, leading to a decline in chemical product price differentials [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Price increases in July were primarily due to supply reductions and effective destocking from previous periods [1] - The industry's profitability has been at a low point in recent years, but under policy guidance, supply-side adjustments are expected to accelerate, which may lead to improved profitability for bulk chemical products [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - In the medium to long term, the exit of high-energy-consuming facilities in Europe and the U.S., along with growth in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, is expected to contribute to demand increases [1] - The export market is becoming a significant growth engine for the domestic chemical industry [1] - In the first half of 2025, the industry's capital expenditure growth rate turned negative for the first time since early 2021, indicating a shift in supply-side adjustments [1] - The second half of 2025 may see a recovery starting point, with downstream sectors likely to recover first due to cost reductions and improved demand [1]

Core Insights - As of the end of July 2025, the CCPI - crude oil price spread is approximately 294, which is below the 30th percentile since 2012, indicating a low point for chemical product profitability [1] - The global macroeconomic situation is characterized by high volatility in oil prices, and the downstream chemical product demand is in a seasonal decline, leading to a decrease in price spreads [1] - Recent price increases in July were primarily due to supply contraction and previous inventory reductions, while industry profitability has been at a low point in recent years [1] - Under policy guidance, supply-side adjustments are accelerating, and profitability for bulk chemical products is expected to improve [1] - In the medium to long term, the exit of high-energy-consuming facilities in Europe and the U.S., along with demand growth in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, will drive the growth of the chemical industry through exports [1] - In the first half of 2025, the industry's capital expenditure growth rate turned negative, but a recovery point may be reached in the second half of 2025, with downstream sectors likely to recover first [1]