丙烯日报 | 2025-11-26 地缘局势缓和，关注成本端扰动 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5838元/吨（-43），丙烯华东现货价5960元/吨（+15），丙烯华北现货价6020元/吨（+95）， 丙烯华东基差122元/吨（+58），丙烯华北基差130元/吨（+122）。中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油CFR172美元/吨（-1）， 丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR58美元/吨（-1），进口利润-302元/吨（+29），厂内库存45040吨（-2150）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率47%（+3.02%），生产利润-350元/吨（-95）；环氧丙烷开工率75%（+0%），生产利润647 元/吨（+8）；正丁醇开工率82%（-2%），生产利润-294元/吨（-8）；辛醇开工率77%（+8%），生产利润-106元/吨（+32）； 丙烯酸开工率73%（-2%），生产利润479元/吨（+0）；丙烯腈开工率80%（+1%），生产利润-403元/吨（-106）；酚 酮开工率79%（+12%），生产利润-415元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 地缘局势有所缓和，国际油价大幅下挫，带动丙烯成本端支撑回落，叠加丙烯供需 ...

丙烯日报 | 2025-11-25 下游逢低采购，成本端存支撑 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5881元/吨（+74），丙烯华东现货价5945元/吨（+20），丙烯华北现货价5925元/吨 （-15），丙烯华东基差64元/吨（-54），丙烯华北基差8元/吨（-86）。丙烯开工率88%（+14%），中国丙烯CFR-日本 石脑油CFR173美元/吨（+21），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR59美元/吨（+10），进口利润-331元/吨（-89），厂内库存45040 吨（-2150）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率47%（+3.02%），生产利润-255元/吨（-45）；环氧丙烷开工率75%（+0%），生产利润647 元/吨（+8）；正丁醇开工率82%（-2%），生产利润-286元/吨（+9）；辛醇开工率77%（+8%），生产利润-138元/吨 （+111）；丙烯酸开工率73%（-2%），生产利润479元/吨（-14）；丙烯腈开工率80%（+1%），生产利润-296元/吨（+5）； 酚酮开工率79%（+12%），生产利润-415元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 上游检修增多，丙烯开工环比下滑，而下游复产整体 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 刘红光 石化行业联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525060002 邮箱：liuhongguang@cindasc.com 刘奕麟 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524040001 邮箱：liuyilin@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 大炼化周报：局部地区春季订单开始释放，长丝盈利仍在改善 [Table_ReportDate0] 2025 年 11 月 23 日 本期内容提要： [Table_Author] ➢ 国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪： [Table_Summary] [Table_Summary] 截至 11 月 21 日当周，国内重点大 炼化项目价差为 2389.69 元/吨，环比变化+52.43 元/吨（+2.24%）； 国外重点大炼化项目价差为 1446.16 元/吨，环比变化+6.66 元/吨 （+0.4 ...

丙烯日报 | 2025-11-21 丙烯下游整体开工环比上升 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5871元/吨（+31），丙烯华东现货价5925元/吨（+0），丙烯华北现货价5940元/吨（-10）， 丙烯华东基差54元/吨（-31），丙烯华北基差56元/吨（-12）。丙烯开工率74%（-1%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油CFR152 美元/吨（-5），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR45美元/吨（+1），进口利润-241元/吨（+9），厂内库存45040吨（-2150）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率47%（+3.02%），生产利润-210元/吨（+20）；环氧丙烷开工率75%（+0%），生产利润 647元/吨（+8）；正丁醇开工率82%（-2%），生产利润-295元/吨（+6）；辛醇开工率77%（+8%），生产利润-249元/ 吨（+57）；丙烯酸开工率73%（-2%），生产利润543元/吨（+0）；丙烯腈开工率80%（+1%），生产利润-316元/吨（-43）； 酚酮开工率79%（+12%），生产利润-415元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 周内上游检修增多，丙烯开工环比下滑，而下游复产整体开工回升， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current core contradictions affecting the propylene trend include the potential repeated submission of "anti - involution" with no actual progress, coal price weakness driving the futures market down, spot price fluctuations due to individual device operations, sufficient supply and weak demand in the PP market, and continuous losses in PDH profits [2]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the propylene market. Positive factors are that device overhauls in some enterprises such as Binhuahua, Haiwei, and Xintai have led to a rebound in spot prices. Negative factors are that PDH has not shown significant negative feedback in the short - term despite losses, and the downstream market, especially the PP market, remains weak [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Propylene Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price range forecast for propylene is 5700 - 6200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.121 and a 3 - year historical volatility percentage of 0.5432 [1]. - For inventory management, when the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, it is recommended to short - sell propylene futures (PL2603) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is between 6100 - 6200 yuan/ton and short - sell call options (PL2601C6000) at a 25% ratio when the price is between 60 - 80 yuan. For procurement management, when the regular inventory is low, it is recommended to buy propylene futures (PL2603) at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is between 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton and short - sell put options (PL2601P5800) at a 25% ratio when the price is between 60 - 80 yuan [1]. 3.2 Industry Data - **Upstream raw material prices**: On November 19, 2025, Brent crude oil was at $63.16/barrel, down $1.2 from the previous day; WTI was at $59.41/barrel, down $1.16. Other upstream raw materials such as MOPJ, NWE NAP, etc., also showed price changes. For example, MOPJ was at $561.94/ton, down $9.39 [5]. - **Mid - stream propylene prices**: On November 19, 2025, the price of propylene in the East China region was 5925 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day; the price difference between CFR China and FOB South Korea remained at $35/ton [5]. - **Downstream product prices**: On November 19, 2025, the price of polypropylene powder was 6200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of polypropylene granules was 6440 yuan/ton, also unchanged. Other downstream products like acrylonitrile, acrylic acid, etc., also had corresponding price changes [5]. - **Profit situation**: Main refinery profit was 704.12 yuan/ton, and MTO monomer profit was - 179.17 yuan/ton. PDH profit was in a continuous loss state, with propylene PDH profit - FEI at - 225.20 yuan/ton [5]. - **Price difference situation**: The price difference between MOPJ and propylene was 1829.03 yuan/ton, and the price difference between PP powder and propylene was not available on November 19, 2025 [5].

丙烯日报 | 2025-11-20 现货市场回暖，盘面延续偏弱整理 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5840元/吨（+24），丙烯华东现货价5925元/吨（+10），丙烯华北现货价5950元/吨 （+60），丙烯华东基差85元/吨（-14），丙烯华北基差68元/吨（+4）。丙烯开工率74%（-1%），中国丙烯CFR-日本 石脑油CFR157美元/吨（+3），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR43美元/吨（-10），进口利润-250元/吨（+14），厂内库存47190 吨（-2630）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率44%（+0.59%），生产利润-230元/吨（-60）；环氧丙烷开工率75%（+1%），生产利润310 元/吨（+58）；正丁醇开工率83%（-3%），生产利润-301元/吨（-37）；辛醇开工率69%（-2%），生产利润-306元/吨 （-43）；丙烯酸开工率75%（+3%），生产利润543元/吨（-7）；丙烯腈开工率79%（+1%），生产利润-273元/吨（+15）； 酚酮开工率67%（-9%），生产利润-415元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 局部PDH装置检修提振叠加下游装置重启带来需求 ...

丙烯日报 | 2025-11-19 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5816元/吨（-97），丙烯华东现货价5915元/吨（+15），丙烯华北现货价5890元/吨（+45）， 丙烯华东基差99元/吨（+112），丙烯华北基差64元/吨（+109）。丙烯开工率74%（-1%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑 油CFR154美元/吨（+6），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR53美元/吨（-7），进口利润-265元/吨（+14），厂内库存47190吨（-2630）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率44%（+0.59%），生产利润-170元/吨（-55）；环氧丙烷开工率75%（+1%），生产利润310 元/吨（+58）；正丁醇开工率83%（-3%），生产利润-214元/吨（-28）；辛醇开工率69%（-2%），生产利润-263元/吨 （+17）；丙烯酸开工率75%（+3%），生产利润550元/吨（-11）；丙烯腈开工率79%（+1%），生产利润-288元/吨（-46）； 酚酮开工率67%（-9%），生产利润-415元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 局部PDH装置检修提振叠加下游装置重启带来需求增量，推动丙烯市场交投好转， ...

丙烯日报 | 2025-11-18 下游装置集中重启带动需求回升 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5913元/吨（-4），丙烯华东现货价5900元/吨（+25），丙烯华北现货价5845元/吨（+40）， 丙烯华东基差-13元/吨（+29），丙烯华北基差-45元/吨（+53）。丙烯开工率74%（-1%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR148美元/吨（-8），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR60美元/吨（-1），进口利润-279元/吨（+25），厂内库存47190吨（-2630）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率44%（+0.59%），生产利润-115元/吨（-40）；环氧丙烷开工率75%（+1%），生产利润310 元/吨（+58）；正丁醇开工率83%（-3%），生产利润-186元/吨（-25）；辛醇开工率69%（-2%），生产利润-280元/吨 （-28）；丙烯酸开工率75%（+3%），生产利润561元/吨（-18）；丙烯腈开工率79%（+1%），生产利润-242元/吨（-31）； 酚酮开工率67%（-9%），生产利润-415元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 局部PDH装置检修提振叠加下游装置重启带来需求 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Local PDH device maintenance boosts and downstream device restart brings demand increment, driving the improvement of the propylene market trading. Propylene spot prices rebound after hitting the bottom, and the futures market is slightly supported to rebound. The supply - demand gap narrows, but the overall supply remains loose, and the inventory pressure in factories is still high. The downstream demand support may increase, and the cost support is limited. The short - term price may stop falling, but the upward driving force is limited, and it may mainly fluctuate in the bottom range [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Figures include propylene main contract closing price, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price [6][9][11] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - Figures cover propylene CFR in China - naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [16][18][28] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Figures involve South Korea FOB - China CFR, Japan CFR - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, and propylene import profit [31][33] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - Figures include PP powder production profit and capacity utilization rate, propylene oxide production profit and capacity utilization rate, n - butanol production profit and capacity utilization rate, octanol production profit and capacity utilization rate, acrylic acid production profit and capacity utilization rate, acrylonitrile production profit and capacity utilization rate, and phenol - acetone production profit and capacity utilization rate [39][40][53] 5. Propylene Inventory - Figures are about propylene in - factory inventory and PP powder in - factory inventory [66]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; short - term may stop falling, but the upward driving force is limited, and it may mainly fluctuate in the bottom range [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Local PDH device maintenance boost and downstream device restart bring demand increment, promoting the improvement of the propylene market trading. The Shandong spot price rebounds and then stabilizes temporarily, and the futures price stops falling and consolidates. The supply is in a loose pattern with high inventory pressure, the demand support may increase, and the cost support is limited [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Propylene: The closing price of the main contract is 5,896 yuan/ton (+27), the East China spot price is 5,850 yuan/ton (-25), the North China spot price is 5,765 yuan/ton (+0), the East China basis is - 46 yuan/ton (-52), the North China basis is - 122 yuan/ton (-20), the operating rate is 75% (+0%), the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR is 138 US dollars/ton (+6), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 63 US dollars/ton (+0), the import profit is - 213 yuan/ton (+27), and the factory inventory is 49,820 tons (+4,770) [1] - Propylene downstream: PP powder operating rate is 43% (-0.34%), production profit is - 15 yuan/ton (+0); propylene oxide operating rate is 74% (+5%), production profit is 268 yuan/ton (-57); n - butanol operating rate is 86% (+2%), production profit is - 96 yuan/ton (-10); octanol operating rate is 71% (-18%), production profit is - 173 yuan/ton (+0); acrylic acid operating rate is 72% (+5%), production profit is 597 yuan/ton (+18); acrylonitrile operating rate is 78% (-1%), production profit is - 144 yuan/ton (+14); phenol - acetone operating rate is 76% (-3%), production profit is - 390 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - Supply: Binhuahua's 600,000 - ton PDH and Xintai Petrochemical's 300,000 - ton PDH devices have successively shut down. There is a restart expectation for the 600,000 - ton PDH devices of Ningbo Jinfa Phase I and Donghua Zhangjiagang in the East China region. There is a phased reduction in supply, but the supply is still in a loose pattern with high factory inventory pressure [2] - Demand: Downstream bargain - hunting purchases drive the improvement of market trading. The operating rates of PO and acrylic acid have increased significantly, while the octanol operating rate has decreased significantly due to centralized shutdowns. In the later stage, the overall profit of the downstream may improve marginally with the loosening of propylene prices. The acrylonitrile device of Kelu'er will restart, and there is an operating expectation for the PP of Jingbo Petrochemical and the phenol - acetone of Fuyu Petrochemical, so the demand support for propylene may increase [2] - Cost: International oil prices have risen slightly but still face over - supply pressure, and the external propane price has been continuously weak, so the cost support for propylene is limited [2] 3.3 Propylene Basis Structure - It includes figures such as the closing price of the main propylene contract, the East China basis, the North China basis, and the 01 - 05 contract of propylene [6][11] 3.4 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - It involves figures including the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, the propylene capacity utilization rate, the PDH production gross profit of propylene, the PDH capacity utilization rate of propylene, the MTO production gross profit of propylene, the methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, the propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and the crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [16][18][19] 3.5 Propylene Import and Export Profit - It contains figures such as the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, the difference between Japan's CFR and China's CFR, the difference between Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and the propylene import profit [31][35] 3.6 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - It includes figures of production profit and operating rate for PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [38][39][46] 3.7 Propylene Inventory - It involves figures of propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [68]