AI新技术冲击软件股，聚水潭(06687)今早跌近13%，低见21.6港元创上市以来新低。截至发稿，跌 12.81%，报21.64港元，成交额764.17万港元。 公开资料显示，聚水潭是全球电商SaaS市场的领军企业。该公司主要面向在各电商平台开设店铺的商 家，产品以电商SaaS ERP 为核心，构筑起覆盖电商运营各领域的一站式电商SaaS解决方案。截至2025 年6 月30 日，聚水潭服务9.3 万个SaaS 客户。 消息面上，周二，由AI初创巨头Anthropic推出的新型自动化工具引发了市场对软件股的恐慌性抛售， 创下去年4月以来跌幅最大的一天。分析师指出，AI进展的预期已发生质变：从最初认为AI能"助力增 长"，转向质疑AI是否会"彻底取代"传统订阅模式。Jefferies股票交易部门的Jeffrey Favuzza将当前局面 描述为"SaaS末日"，指出目前的交易风格完全是"无论如何让我离场（get me out）"式的恐慌性抛售，且 尚未看到任何止跌企稳的迹象。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in software stocks, particularly affecting companies like 聚水潭, which saw a nearly 13% drop, reaching a new low since its listing at 21.6 HKD [1] - The market reaction was triggered by the launch of a new automation tool by AI startup Anthropic, leading to the largest drop in software stocks since April of the previous year [1] - Analysts have noted a shift in expectations regarding AI, moving from viewing it as a growth enhancer to questioning whether it could completely replace traditional subscription models [1] Group 2 - Jeffrey Favuzza from Jefferies described the current market situation as a "SaaS apocalypse," indicating a panic sell-off with no signs of stabilization [1] - 聚水潭 is recognized as a leading player in the global e-commerce SaaS market, primarily serving merchants operating on various e-commerce platforms [1] - The company offers a comprehensive e-commerce SaaS ERP solution, covering all aspects of e-commerce operations, and as of June 30, 2025, it serves 93,000 SaaS customers [1]

该行还指出，聚水潭已在泰国设立子公司，业务发展稳健，未来将持续拓展等东南亚市场，并积极探索 欧美、拉美和中东等区域的业务机会。立足电商SaaSERP领域积累的客户资源，公司进一步发力增值软 件业务，有望打开新的成长曲线。 广发证券发布研报称，AI应用正在加速突破，各大电商平台将围绕"AI+生态闭环"展开更高维度竞争。 随着平台差异化竞争增强，商家需要中立、跨平台的工具来平衡多个生态。因此，在新的竞争格局下， 一个技术能力强、生态中立、覆盖多平台的第三方SaaS服务商将获得更高的稀缺性和议价能力。聚水潭 在此周期中有望直接受益，业绩弹性增强 智通财经APP获悉，聚水潭(06687)尾盘涨近4%，截至发稿，涨3.85%，报31.3港元，成交额847.85万港 元。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that 聚水潭 (Jushuitan) is positioned as a leading collaborative platform in the e-commerce SaaS ERP sector, providing cloud-based ERP solutions to address pain points faced by e-commerce merchants in multi-platform operations [1] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 1.14 billion, 1.39 billion, and 1.66 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 70 million, 350 million, and 520 million yuan for the same years [1] - The report assigns a reasonable valuation multiple of 12x PS for 2026, resulting in a target price of 42.09 HKD per share, with a "Buy" rating [1] Group 2 - The e-commerce SaaS ERP market is characterized as small yet beautiful, with the ERP system effectively integrating core operational processes within the e-commerce industry, addressing challenges such as cross-platform store management and inventory management [2] - The market for e-commerce SaaS ERP is expected to maintain a high growth rate as it expands its business scenarios and integrates more collaborative functions [2] Group 3 - 聚水潭 holds a solid leading position in the e-commerce SaaS ERP industry, with a market share of 24.4% in 2024, significantly ahead of competitors [3] - The company's financial metrics are improving, with a LTV/CAC ratio reaching 9.3 in 2024, indicating a strong sales and product system [3] - The net customer revenue retention rate for 2024 is 115%, showcasing the company's effectiveness in customer retention and increasing customer spending [3] Group 4 - The company is actively expanding internationally, having established a subsidiary in Thailand and plans to explore opportunities in Southeast Asia, Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East [4] - Leveraging its customer resources accumulated in the e-commerce SaaS ERP field, the company aims to enhance its value-added software business, potentially opening new growth avenues [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that 聚水潭 is positioned as a leading collaborative platform in the e-commerce SaaS ERP sector, providing cloud-based ERP solutions to address the pain points of e-commerce merchants in multi-platform operations [2] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 1.14 billion, 1.39 billion, and 1.66 billion yuan, and net profit of 70 million, 350 million, and 520 million yuan for the years 2025 to 2027 respectively [1] - The company is assigned a reasonable valuation multiple of 12x PS for 2026, leading to a target price of 42.09 HKD per share, with a "Buy" rating [1] Group 2 - The e-commerce SaaS ERP market is characterized as small yet beautiful, with the ERP system effectively integrating core operational processes to solve issues related to cross-platform store management and inventory management [3] - 聚水潭 holds a significant market share of 24.4% in the e-commerce SaaS ERP industry in 2024, demonstrating a strong competitive position [4] - The company has a customer retention rate of 115% in 2024, indicating strong performance in customer retention and increased spending [4] Group 3 - The company is actively expanding internationally, having established a subsidiary in Thailand and plans to explore opportunities in Southeast Asia, Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East [5] - 聚水潭 aims to leverage its existing customer resources in the e-commerce SaaS ERP field to further develop its value-added software business, potentially opening new growth avenues [5]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the Chinese e-commerce service industry experienced significant fluctuations in the capital market, with notable events including failed IPO attempts, successful listings, and strategic acquisitions among various service providers [1]. Group 1: Major Events - Event 1: The former chairman of Bicheng Digital was sentenced for operating an illegal casino, leading to the failure of its IPO and potential acquisition by DreamNet Technology [5]. - Event 2: Guangyun Technology plans to acquire Yitao Investment for 200 million yuan to enhance its enterprise service ecosystem [9]. - Event 3: Kaijie E-commerce submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising questions about its potential success [5][9]. - Event 4: Kaichun Co. has begun providing operational services for brands on WeChat mini-programs, although the platform's features are still in testing [10]. - Event 5: Jindong Group's first investment in a service provider, Jiyi Technology, aims for an IPO after achieving over 10 billion yuan in GMV [5][14]. - Event 6: E-commerce SaaS ERP provider Jushuitan successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, achieving a market value of over 16 billion yuan [14]. - Event 7: Various e-commerce service providers showcased strong performance during the Double 11 shopping festival, highlighting the importance of AI tools and multi-channel operations [17]. - Event 8: Ruoyuchen filed a lawsuit against Hangzhou Hexiao Cultural Media, potentially involving over 10 million yuan, reflecting compliance challenges in the e-commerce industry [19]. Group 2: Financial Highlights - Jiyi Technology reported a GMV of 15 billion yuan in 2024, with over 1.7 billion yuan from the high-end beauty market, strengthening its position for market entry [14]. - Jushuitan's stock opened at 38.00 HKD, a 24% increase from its issue price, closing at 37.90 HKD, marking a 23.86% rise on its first trading day [14]. - Shidong Technology completed a 12 million yuan angel round of financing, indicating strong market recognition for its innovative approach in AI and new retail [22].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 42.09 HKD per share based on a reasonable valuation multiple of 12x PS for 2026 [7]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading SaaS ERP platform for e-commerce, addressing critical pain points in order management, inventory management, logistics coordination, and financial settlement for merchants operating across multiple platforms [7][12]. - The e-commerce SaaS ERP market is rapidly growing, with the company expected to benefit significantly from industry trends, achieving a market share of 24.4% in 2024 [7][47]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas presence and enhancing its value-added software business, which is anticipated to open new growth avenues [7][66]. Financial Overview - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 910 million RMB in 2024 to 1.658 billion RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 33% from 2020 to 2024 [2][23]. - The company is expected to turn profitable in 2024, with a net profit of 12 million RMB, and further increase to 521 million RMB by 2027 [2][23]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 68% in 2024 to 80% by 2027, reflecting a shift towards higher-margin software and services [88]. Market Dynamics - The e-commerce SaaS ERP market in China is projected to reach 31 billion RMB by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 21.5% from 2024 to 2029 [43]. - The company’s customer base is currently under 100,000, indicating significant potential for market penetration given the over 27 million active e-commerce merchants in China [48]. - The company has established a strong competitive position, leveraging its deep understanding of the e-commerce sector and cloud-native technology capabilities [47]. Growth Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its value-added software offerings, which are expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth, achieving 1.1 billion RMB in revenue by 2024 [77]. - The company has set up a subsidiary in Thailand and plans to explore further opportunities in Southeast Asia, as well as in Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East [73][66]. - The company’s LTV/CAC ratio is projected to reach 9.3 in 2024, indicating a strong business model and effective customer acquisition strategy [55].

Group 1 - The stock performance of Jushuitan (06687) has attracted market attention, closing at HKD 29.58 with a trading volume of HKD 22.19 million [1] - On November 15, Jushuitan announced that the overall coordinators fully exercised the 15% over-allotment option, involving a total of 10.2249 million shares at a price of HKD 30.6 per share, bringing in approximately HKD 300 million in net proceeds [3] - Despite the capital injection, Jushuitan's stock price did not experience an uplift and instead declined [3] Group 2 - Jushuitan is a leading player in the Chinese e-commerce SaaS ERP sector, holding a market share of 24.4% in mainland China based on 2024 revenue projections, which exceeds the combined market share of the second to fifth largest competitors [3] - The company is also the second-largest e-commerce SaaS provider in mainland China, with a market share of 7.1% [3] - Despite its strong market position, Jushuitan's stock performance is influenced by various factors, and its future trajectory remains to be observed [3]

Core Viewpoint - Jushuitan (06687) experienced a decline of over 5%, hitting a new low of 28.82 HKD since its listing, falling below the issue price of 30.6 HKD [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of the report, Jushuitan's stock price dropped by 5.16%, trading at 29.4 HKD with a transaction volume of 17.55 million HKD [1] Group 2: Share Offering - On November 15, Jushuitan announced that overall coordinators fully exercised a 15% over-allotment option, involving a total of 10.2249 million shares at a price of 30.6 HKD per share, resulting in additional net proceeds of approximately 300 million HKD [1] - The stabilization period for the global offering ended on the same day, during which the stabilizing agent, China International Capital Corporation, did not buy or sell any shares [1] Group 3: Market Position - Jushuitan is recognized as the largest e-commerce SaaS ERP provider in China, holding a market share of 24.4% based on projected revenues for 2024, which exceeds the combined market share of the second to fifth largest competitors [1] - According to data from Frost & Sullivan, Jushuitan is the second-largest e-commerce SaaS provider in mainland China, with a market share of 7.1% based on projected revenues for 2024 [1]

公开资料显示，聚水潭是中国最大的电商SaaS ERP提供商，根据灼识咨询的资料，以2024年的相关收 入计，占据24.4%的市场份额(超过第二至第五大参与者的市场份额总和)。此外，根据灼识咨询的资 料，以2024年的相关收入计，公司是内地第二大电商SaaS提供商，占据7.1%的市场份额。 消息面上，聚水潭公布，11月15日，整体协调人悉数行使15%超额配股权，涉及合共1022.49万股。每 股作价30.6港元，额外所得净额约3亿港元。此外，有关全球发售的稳定价格期已于同日结束。期间， 稳定价格操作人中国国际金融并无买卖任何股份。 聚水潭(06687)跌超5%，盘中低见28.82港元创上市以来新低，并跌穿发行价30.6港元。截至发稿，跌 5.16%，报29.4港元，成交额1755.41万港元。 ...