金蝶国际 20250625 摘要 金蝶国际推出多款 AI 引擎产品，客户反馈积极，AI 应用逐步深化，未来 发展前景值得关注。当前市销率（PS）约为 7 倍，与 AI SaaS 公司正常 12~15 倍 PS 相比，仍有提升空间。 ERP 行业国产替代加速，金蝶国际处于盈利拐点期，叠加 AI 应用前景， 7 月起针对中大型企业客户实施新的收费模式，对额外二次开发服务单 独收费，提振收入，行业竞争格局改善。 金蝶国际财务稳健，中型企业客户占比最高，通过星空产品实现，SaaS 化程度高，按年订阅付费，延长客户价值生命周期，业绩贡献更长久， 中型企业业务增速虽放缓，仍维持 10%左右。 ERP 国产替代政策推动市场格局调整，海外厂商份额下降，国产厂商如 金蝶等专注于产品升级，补齐生产制造、供应链等短板，利用 AI 技术提 升竞争力，大型央国企市场增速较快。 金蝶采用订阅模式，按年付费确保客户持续使用服务，延长客户价值生 命周期，支撑业绩稳定性，即使宏观经济环境不确定，仍能保持较高水 平的预见性和确定性。 Q&A 近年来 AI 应用公司在市场上的表现如何？金蝶国际在 AI 领域的进展如何？ AI 应用公司近年来表现出 ...

【编者按】 继成功领导微软云计算、开源等多次重大转型后，微软 CEO 萨提亚·纳德拉（Satya Nadella）近日在 Build 大会后接受知名科技媒体人 Matthew Berman 的深度专访， 纳德拉在采访中坦言："我们正在经历一场软件与智能的范式巨变。AI 驱动的智能体网络将重塑企业软件的未来，SaaS 终 将融入其中。" 原文：https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XSy7ry-x5pA 整理 | 梦依丹 软件和技术栈的深度重构： 他强调需"从第一性原理出发"为 AI 重构整个技术栈，将 Azure 升级为"AI 工厂"，并将 Microsoft 365 转变为 AI 新 界面、多人协作中心和沉浸式工作环境（如内嵌聊天功能的 IDE）。 SaaS 模式的颠覆与智能体网络的崛起： 他预言应用层将"坍缩并融入智能体"，传统 SaaS 应用需适应这种转变，成为智能体网络中的"后端之 一"，通过新协议（如 MCP）实现多智能体编排，最终聚焦于业务流程的整体完成。 负责任的 AI 与普惠未来： 纳德拉指出，公司将拥有 AI 智能体的知识产权，需将其纳入现有 IT 管理框架。他坚信 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales and revenues decreased by 16% to $12.763 billion, while net sales for equipment operations fell by 18% to $11.171 billion [16] - Net income attributable to Deere and Company was $1.804 billion, or $6.64 per diluted share [16] - Equipment operations achieved an 18.8% margin, demonstrating strong execution despite market challenges [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Production and Precision Ag segment saw net sales decline by 21% to $5.230 billion, with an operating profit of $1.148 billion and a 22% operating margin [17][18] - Small Ag and Turf segment's net sales decreased by 6% to $2.994 billion, with an operating profit of approximately $574 million and a 19.2% operating margin [19] - Construction and Forestry segment's net sales dropped by 23% to $2.947 billion, with an operating profit of $379 million and a 12.9% operating margin [27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Large ag equipment industry sales in the U.S. and Canada are expected to decline by approximately 30% due to high interest rates and trade uncertainty [20] - Small ag and turf industry demand in the U.S. and Canada is projected to decrease by 10-15% [21] - European industry sales are expected to decrease by about 5%, while South America is forecasted to have flat sales [22][23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains committed to its Smart Industrial strategy, focusing on innovation and advanced technology integration [9][12] - A planned investment of $20 billion in U.S. operations over the next decade aims to enhance product development and manufacturing capabilities [13] - The company emphasizes maintaining customer relationships and delivering high uptime and reliability [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged significant global trade volatility and its impact on customer sentiment [6][16] - The outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been broadened due to a fluid tariff environment, with net income guidance now between $4.75 billion and $5.5 billion [33] - Management expressed optimism about future opportunities and the ability to drive value for customers despite current challenges [14][80] Other Important Information - The company is actively managing costs, production, inventory, and quality to navigate the uncertain market environment [9] - There is a focus on reducing used inventory levels in North America, with new inventory for tractors above 220 horsepower down over 40% year over year [62] - The company is enhancing its precision ag solutions, with significant growth in adoption and utilization of technologies like See and Spray [70][71] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the SaaS models and the Precision Essential product line? - The company has three main SaaS offerings: precision digital technologies, sense and ag technologies, and forthcoming autonomous solutions [88][89] - The Precision Essentials product line includes foundational digital elements with a lower upfront cost and annual licensing [88] Question: What is the implied profitability for the PPA segment in the second half? - The profitability is impacted by tariff effects, mix impacts, and less favorable pricing compared to the previous year [100][101] Question: How will tariffs affect the early order program pricing for 2026? - The early order programs will maintain a similar structure, allowing for price flexibility as tariffs evolve [107][108] Question: Why are margins expected to be low in the second half of the year? - The low margins are primarily due to tariff impacts, mix changes, and less favorable pricing conditions [114]