2026 年 01 月 30 日 新东方-S (09901) ——经营效益持续提升，业务调整尽显效果 上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 社会服务 黄哲 A0230513030001 huangzhe@swsresearch.com 联系人 黄哲 A0230513030001 huangzhe@swsresearch.com 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2026 年 01 月 29 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 46.04 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9552.58 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 47.84/31.20 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 794.37 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 1,591.46 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -12% 8% 28% 48% 02/03 03/03 04/03 05/03 06/03 07/03 08/03 09/03 10/03 11/03 12/03 01/03 HSCEI 新东方-S 资料来源：Bloomberg 相关研究 - 证券分析师 经营利润率 ...

3QFY26 K12业务营收有望加速增长，核心得益于留存率提升与寒假排课量增加 过去几个季度，公司坚持努力提升产品力与教学授课质量，高中及K9非学科业务的用户留存率实现显 著提升。考虑到今年春节时间较晚，今年寒假排课量多于去年。基于此，该行预测K12业务营收将同比 增长19%至8.15亿美元;其中高中业务同比增长18%，主要1V1及OMO助力，K9新业务，同比增23%，主 要受益于初中强劲复苏。 2QFY26业绩回顾 公司总营收同比增长15%至11.91亿美元，超出机构一致预期3%，且突破公司此前9%~12%的指引上 限。NonGaap营业利润同比大增223%至8900万美元，超出一致预期62%，对应Non-Gaap营业利润率为 7.5%，较一致预期的4.7%提升2.8个百分点。递延收入为21.615亿美元，同比增长10.2%，而1QFY26同 比增幅为10%。 海通国际发布研报称，维持新东方-S(09901)"优于大市"评级，对2026财年公司Non-Gaap NP仍采用18倍 PE进行估值，基于业绩预期上修，将目标价由49港币上调至52港币。该行观察到公司的降本增效措施 持续生效;同时通过渠道调研发现，公 ...

研究报告 Research Report 29 Jan 2026 新东方-S New Oriental (9901 HK) 超预期并上调指引；降本增效战略持续显效 Beat and Raise guidance; efficiency improvement strategy is yielding results [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$46.04 目标价 HK$52.00 HTI ESG 5.0-5.0-5.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$75.29bn / US$9.65bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$19.47mn 发行股票数目 1,635mn 自由流通股 (%) 88% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$47.24-HK$32.85 注：现价 HK$46.04 为 2026 年 01 月 29 日收盘价 资料来源： F ...

Group 1 - New Oriental-S (09901) shares increased by over 5%, reaching a price of HKD 41.62 with a trading volume of HKD 114 million [1] - Guosheng Securities reported that as of FY25Q4, the company's deferred revenue (customer prepayments) was USD 1.955 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 9.8%, indicating growth in the collection side which supports future revenue [1] - The company projects FY2026Q1 net revenue (including Dongfang Zhenxuan) to grow by 2% to 5% year-over-year, reaching USD 1.464 to 1.507 billion, with conservative guidance due to a high base in FY25Q1 and rescheduling of K12 business due to the early Spring Festival in 2025 [1] Group 2 - Daiwa noted that after reviewing New Oriental-S's operational status for the summer semester of 2025 and the performance of Dongfang Zhenxuan for FY2025, the overall business development of the group appears stable, with improved K-9 fall student retention rates and no further deterioration in overseas exam preparation services [2] - New Oriental announced plans to distribute no less than 50% of its net profit attributable to shareholders from the previous fiscal year in the form of dividends or share buybacks starting from FY2026 [2] - Daiwa believes that the anticipated shareholder return ratio could significantly exceed the group's commitment of 50%, potentially reaching high double-digit percentages or even over 100%, which is seen as a key positive catalyst for the shares [2]

Group 1 - New Oriental-S (09901) saw a stock increase of over 5%, reaching HKD 41.62 with a trading volume of HKD 114 million [1] - Guosheng Securities reported that as of FY25Q4, the company's deferred revenue (customer prepayments) was USD 1.955 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 9.8%, indicating growth in the collection side which supports future revenue [1] - The company projects FY2026Q1 net revenue (including Dongfang Zhenxuan) to grow by 2% to 5% to USD 1.464 to 1.507 billion, with conservative guidance due to a high base in FY25Q1 and rescheduling of K12 business due to the early Spring Festival in 2025 [1] Group 2 - Daiwa noted that after reviewing New Oriental-S's summer semester operations for 2025 and the performance of Dongfang Zhenxuan, the overall business development is stabilizing, with improved K-9 fall student retention rates and no further deterioration in overseas exam preparation services [2] - New Oriental announced plans to distribute no less than 50% of its previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders in the form of dividends or share buybacks starting from FY2026, which could potentially exceed 100% [2] - The anticipated shareholder return ratio is seen as a significant positive catalyst for the stock [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International maintains a target price of HKD 46 for New Oriental-S (09901) and a "Buy" rating, while adjusting revenue and operating profit forecasts for the fiscal years 2026 and 2027 downward by approximately 3% and 17% respectively [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - Revenue growth is expected at 10% and 14% for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 respectively, with an operating profit margin projected at 10.2% and 10.5%, showing a slight increase compared to fiscal year 2025 [1] - The fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 saw a revenue increase of 9.4% year-on-year, surpassing the expectations of CMB International and other institutions, which were 2% and 5% respectively [1] - Excluding Dongfang Zhenxuan (01797), education and cultural tourism revenue increased by 19% year-on-year, with an education operating profit margin of 6.5%, up 410 basis points from the same period last year due to effective cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures [1] Group 2: Business Segments and Market Outlook - The guidance for the first quarter was below expectations primarily due to seasonal factors, but growth is expected to recover in the second to fourth quarters [1] - The management's guidance for fiscal year 2026 indicates a group revenue increase of 5-10%, compared to the market expectation of 12%, with the main adjustment being a downward revision of the growth forecast for overseas-related business to a decline of 5% [1] - The growth rate for K12-related business is maintained at the market expectation of 19% [1] Group 3: Valuation Methodology - CMB International has adjusted its valuation method to SOTP, assigning a price-to-earnings ratio of 15 times for K12 business and 8 times for study abroad business for fiscal year 2026, corresponding to profit growth rates of +22% and -10% respectively [1] - The company is accelerating cost optimization efforts, aiming to achieve stable or slightly increased operating profit margins for the entire year [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8] Core Views - The company's education business is expected to see a recovery in profit margins, and regular share buybacks may enhance its valuation [2][8] - The projected revenue for Q4 FY25 is $1.186 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.4%, with the education segment (including cultural tourism) contributing $1.034 billion, a 13.3% increase [5] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be $51 million, a 39.2% increase year-on-year, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 4.3%, expanding by 1.1 percentage points [5][7] Revenue and Profitability - The report anticipates a slowdown in the growth of the study abroad business, projecting a revenue of $298 million for Q4 FY25, a 5% increase, which is a deceleration of 12.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year [6] - New business segments, including K9 competency training and learning machine services, are expected to grow by 34% year-on-year to $311 million in Q4 [6] - The company is expected to improve its Non-GAAP operating profit margin to 3% in Q4, reversing the decline seen in Q3 [7] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY25 to FY27 have been slightly adjusted to $4.84 billion, $5.8 billion, and $7.03 billion respectively [8] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for FY25 to FY27 have been raised to $467 million, $575 million, and $710 million respectively [8] - The DCF target price has been increased to $76.3, corresponding to a PE ratio of 17.1 for FY25 [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [1]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the ongoing adjustments in the study abroad business while highlighting the growth supported by the quality education and training sector [1][7]. - The company is expected to generate revenue of $1.225 billion in Q3 FY25, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.5%, with the education business (including cultural tourism) contributing $1.111 billion, a 21% increase [4]. - The report anticipates a decline in net profit attributable to the parent company, projected at $91 million, down 13.2% year-on-year, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 7.6%, narrowing by 1.1 percentage points [4]. Summary by Sections Study Abroad Business - The growth rate of the study abroad business has slowed, with revenue from overseas exam training and consulting reaching $310 million, a 16.6% increase, but down 30.1 percentage points from the previous year [5]. - The high-end one-on-one training segment faces challenges due to its premium pricing, and the demand for studying abroad is returning to normal after a surge due to the pandemic [5]. New Business Growth - New business segments, including K9 quality education and learning machine services, are expected to see a 37% year-on-year revenue growth, reaching $332 million [6]. - The company plans to expand its service offerings to meet differentiated demands in primary and secondary education, which is expected to drive rapid growth in new business [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY25-FY27 have been revised down to $4.96 billion, $6.02 billion, and $7.34 billion, respectively, due to the slowdown in the high-margin study abroad business [7]. - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for FY25-FY27 have also been adjusted to $454 million, $534 million, and $636 million, respectively [7]. - The DCF target price has been lowered to $74.8, corresponding to a PE ratio of 17.3 for FY25 and a PEG ratio of 0.93 [7]. Financial Data - The company’s revenue for FY25 is projected at $4.959 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.96% [9]. - Adjusted net profit for FY25 is expected to be $454 million, reflecting a growth rate of 19.21% [11]. - The company’s cash and bank deposits are projected to increase to $2.021 billion by FY25 [12].