回望过往的日子，有人在顺境里安然前行，有人在困境中踽踽跋涉；有人守住了本心，也有人在世事浮沉里弄丢了方向。 人这一生，从来都不是一帆风顺的坦途，上有肩头的责任，下有前行的迷茫，前有未竟的理想，后有岁月的风霜。 洞见 （ DJ00123987 ） —— 不一样的观点，不一样的故事， 3000 万人订阅的微信大号。点击标题下蓝字 " 洞见 " 关注，我们将为您提供有价值、有意思的 延伸阅读。 作者：幽兰 来源：国学文化 （ID：gxwh001） 思危而立，思变而进，思稳而行。 ♬ 点上方播放按钮可收听洞见主播一凡朗读音频 岁月辗转，时序更迭，转眼2026年已经悄然来临。 走过半生才懂得，真正的成熟，从来不是无惧风雨，而是学会与风雨并肩；真正的顺遂，也从不是命运的馈赠，而是内心的清醒与笃定。 2026年，于我们而言，最好的人生姿态，莫过于"思危，思变，思稳"。 短短六字，藏着我们新一年安身立命的智慧，也藏着穿越岁月、行稳致远的底气。 思危，要避危：居安思危，是人生的清醒剂。 《周易》说："安而不忘危，存而不忘亡，治而不忘乱。" 这世间所有的猝不及防，其实都有迹可循；所有的绝境困局，大多源于事前的麻痹与侥幸。 所谓思 ...

该行维持公司2026至2028财年各年收入预测分别53.8亿、59.8亿及67.3亿美元，Non-GAAP净利润预测 分别5.55亿、6.1亿及6.79亿美元，维持目标价69.9美元，对应H股目标价54.9港元，评级则上调至"买 入"。 申万宏源研究发表报告指，新东方经营效率提升，利润率扩张提速，预计11月底止2026财年第二季收入 11.65亿美元，按年增长12.2%；其中，教育业务(含文旅)实现收入9.57亿美元，按年增长11%，其他业 务(主要为东方甄选)收入2.08亿美元，按年增长18%。该行预计第二季归属母公司的Non-GAAP净利润 为0.63亿美元，按年增长77.8%；Non-GAAP净利润率为5.4%，按年扩张2个百分点。由于出国留学业务 收缩触底，对利润率的拖累预计即将出清。同时公司将全年教学网点的增长速度放缓至10%，提升教学 网点产能利用率，因此利润率压力逐步出清。 ...

Core Points - The chairman of New Oriental, Yu Minhong, faced criticism from employees after sending an internal letter while traveling in Antarctica, which led to a disconnect between his experiences and the employees' realities [5][9] - The internal letter emphasized New Oriental's mission to be a "sower of hope" and highlighted the future vision for the company, including the establishment of a youth exploration center [7][10] - New Oriental is currently undergoing a critical transformation phase and is experiencing significant operational pressures, with a reported 73.7% drop in net profit to $7.1 million for Q4 of FY2025 [11] Financial Performance - For Q1 of FY2026, New Oriental reported a net revenue of $1.523 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, driven by new educational business growth [11] - The company expects Q2 FY2026 net revenue to be between $1.131 billion and $1.163 billion, with a growth rate of 9% to 12% [11] - Full-year net revenue projections for FY2026 are estimated to be between $5.1453 billion and $5.3903 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 5% to 10% [11]

Group 1 - The core message of the article revolves around New Oriental's chairman, Yu Minhong, facing criticism from employees after sending an internal letter from Antarctica, which contrasted with the employees' current work pressures [2] - Yu Minhong's internal letter, celebrating the company's 32nd anniversary, emphasized themes of perseverance and future aspirations, positioning New Oriental as a "sower of hope" and promoting its new business initiatives [2] - Employee reactions included mockery and dissatisfaction, highlighting a disconnect between the leadership's experiences and the challenges faced by staff, with comments reflecting the stark contrast between Yu's travels and employees' realities [2] Group 2 - New Oriental is currently undergoing a critical transformation phase, facing significant operational pressures, as evidenced by a 73.7% drop in net profit to $7.1 million for Q4 of fiscal year 2025, primarily due to the underperformance of the Dongfang Zhenxuan business and goodwill impairment [4] - The company's core education business is experiencing a slowdown, with revenue growth decreasing from 43.9% in the previous fiscal year to 13.6% [4] - For Q1 of fiscal year 2026, New Oriental reported net revenue of $1.523 billion, a 6.1% year-over-year increase, driven by new educational business initiatives, although net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 1.9% to $241 million [4] - The company anticipates Q2 fiscal year 2026 net revenue between $1.132 billion and $1.163 billion, with a year-over-year growth rate of 9% to 12%, and expects total annual net revenue to range from $5.1453 billion to $5.3903 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 5% to 10% [4] - As of the report, New Oriental's stock on the Hong Kong market declined by 2.60% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The letter from the founder of New Oriental, Yu Minhong, celebrating the company's 32nd anniversary while he is in Antarctica, has sparked controversy among employees who feel disconnected from the message due to their ongoing work pressures and the disparity between their realities and the founder's luxurious trip [1][3]. Group 1: Employee Reactions - Employees have expressed feelings of sarcasm and disconnection regarding the letter, particularly noting that while the founder describes the beauty of Antarctica, they are working overtime and facing performance pressures [3]. - Some employees have criticized the letter for its lack of acknowledgment of their hard work and the challenges they face, suggesting that a message about overtime pay would have been more appropriate [3]. - The stark contrast between the high costs of a trip to Antarctica and the financial pressures faced by ordinary employees has further fueled the negative reception of the letter [3]. Group 2: Company Performance - Since the implementation of the "double reduction" policy in 2021, New Oriental has been forced to transform its business model, discontinuing K9 subject tutoring services that previously accounted for 69% of its total revenue [9]. - New Oriental has attempted to pivot towards new business areas such as live e-commerce and cultural tourism, but these efforts have not yet compensated for the loss of revenue from its core education services [9]. - Financial results indicate a significant decline in profitability, with a 73.7% drop in net profit to $7.1 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, primarily due to losses from the Oriental Selection business and goodwill impairment [9].

Core Points - The founder of New Oriental, Yu Minhong, sent an internal letter from Antarctica on the company's 32nd anniversary, expressing gratitude to employees and supporters while reflecting on the significance of time and perseverance [1][3] - The letter emphasized New Oriental's mission to be a "sower of hope" and positioned Dongfang Zhenxuan as a representative of "business conscience" [1] - The company is currently undergoing a critical transformation phase and is facing significant operational pressures, with a reported 73.7% drop in net profit to $7.1 million for Q4 of fiscal year 2025, primarily due to the underperformance of Dongfang Zhenxuan and goodwill impairment [7] Employee Reactions - The internal letter did not resonate as expected with employees, leading to comments on social media that highlighted the contrast between the founder's vacation and the employees' work environment [3][5] - Observations noted that the letter frequently mentioned "I" 17 times and "Antarctica" 5 times, while largely neglecting the current work pressures faced by employees [5] Financial Performance - New Oriental's core education business has shown a declining growth rate, with revenue growth dropping from 43.9% in the previous fiscal year to 13.6% in fiscal year 2025 [7] - The company is still awaiting a response from Yu Minhong or New Oriental regarding the controversy surrounding the internal letter [8]

Core Insights - The internal letter from Yu Minhong celebrates the 32nd anniversary of New Oriental, expressing gratitude to all contributors to the company's journey [1][2][3] - The letter reflects on the challenges and achievements over the past 32 years, emphasizing the collective effort of staff and educators [2][3] - New Oriental aims to evolve beyond being a knowledge provider to becoming a cultivator of hope and a representative of integrity in business [3] Summary by Sections - **Company History and Achievements** - New Oriental has grown from a modest classroom to a significant educational institution over 32 years, facing numerous challenges and celebrating successes along the way [1][2] - The journey is marked by the dedication and contributions of every staff member, highlighting the importance of teamwork and perseverance [2][3] - **Future Vision** - The company aspires to be a beacon of hope and integrity, with specific goals for its subsidiaries: - Oriental Selection aims to be a platform for quality goods and a representative of business ethics - New Oriental Tourism seeks to inspire people to explore the world and enrich their lives [3] - The commitment to continuous learning and adaptation to societal needs is emphasized as essential for future growth [3]

Core Insights - The company reported a 6% year-on-year revenue increase to $1.523 billion for Q1 of FY2026, exceeding expectations by 1% [1] - Adjusted operating profit was approximately $336 million, with an operating margin of 22%, reflecting a 1 percentage point year-on-year expansion [1] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was $258 million, corresponding to a net profit margin of 17% [1] Performance Highlights - The study abroad-related business performed better than expected, with preparatory and consulting revenues increasing by 1% and 2% year-on-year, compared to a previous forecast of -5% [1] - The college/adult education segment maintained a robust growth rate, with a 14% year-on-year revenue increase [1] - The K9 new business segment saw a 15% year-on-year revenue growth, with learning machines outperforming non-subject areas [1] - Non-subject training enrollment increased by 10% year-on-year to 530,000, while paid users of the intelligent learning system and devices rose by 40% year-on-year to 452,000 [1] - The number of teaching points reached 1,347, an increase of 29 points or 2% from the previous quarter, within the company's expansion pace [1] - The company announced a cash dividend of $190 million and a $300 million share repurchase plan, which is better than previous expectations [1] FY2026 Outlook - Management maintains the FY2026 group revenue guidance, expecting a year-on-year growth rate of 5-10%, with Q2 revenue growth projected between 9-12%, compared to a previous expectation of 9% [2] - Concerns regarding business growth are alleviated by improved retention rates in K12 business and product quality enhancements, which are expected to stabilize revenue growth [2] - The study abroad-related business may remain under pressure, but is expected to benefit from a projected over 25% year-on-year increase in youth language training revenue and expansion in non-English-speaking countries' consulting services [2] - Overall revenue growth for FY2026/27/28 is anticipated to exceed 10%, with a continued trend of profit margin expansion [2] Valuation - The company remains optimistic about the demand and growth prospects for K12 education-related businesses, with steady revenue growth and potential for profit margin optimization [2] - Despite recent impacts on the study abroad-related business, it continues to lead the industry [2] - Using the SOTP valuation method, the company assigns a 15x P/E ratio for K12 business and an 8x P/E ratio for study abroad business, with corresponding profit growth rates of +25% and -7% [2] - The target price has been raised to HKD 55 / USD 71 (EDU US/Buy) from HKD 46 / USD 59, maintaining a buy rating [2]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities has raised the target price for New Oriental-S (09901) to HKD 45.4, citing potential catalysts on the horizon, including improved overseas business performance and increased profit margins [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast and Target Price Adjustment - The non-GAAP earnings per share forecast for the fiscal years 2026 to 2027 has been increased by 4% and 5% respectively, primarily due to a smaller-than-expected decline in overseas business revenue and improved profit margins [1] - The target price for New Oriental's U.S. stock has been raised to USD 58.2, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 2: Potential Catalysts - Shareholder returns are expected to improve, considering the company holds USD 4.8 billion in cash and has strong free cash flow generation capabilities projected to reach USD 500 million to USD 700 million from fiscal years 2026 to 2028. The current dividend payout ratio is equivalent to 50% of net profit, with significant room for increase. A 100% payout ratio in fiscal year 2026 would yield a dividend yield of 4.5% [2] - Overseas business performance is anticipated to exceed expectations, with management guiding for a single-digit percentage decline in overseas revenue for the August quarter and fiscal year 2026. Non-U.S./U.K. consulting and related services, which account for about 60% of consulting revenue, are expected to grow, partially offsetting declines in the U.S. (double-digit decline) and U.K. (moderate decline) [2] - The K9 business is expected to accelerate again, despite a potential slowdown in revenue growth for the August quarter due to course scheduling adjustments and competition from local small institutions. Growth is expected to resume in the November quarter as these negative factors dissipate [2] - Profit margin resilience is evident, with cost control measures, improved margins in K12 and Dongfang Zhenxuan, and a reduction in losses from the cultural tourism business expected to offset pressure on overseas business profit margins, driving an expansion in non-GAAP operating profit margins for fiscal year 2026 [2]

Group 1 - New Oriental-S (09901) saw a stock increase of over 5%, reaching HKD 41.62 with a trading volume of HKD 114 million [1] - Guosheng Securities reported that as of FY25Q4, the company's deferred revenue (customer prepayments) was USD 1.955 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 9.8%, indicating growth in the collection side which supports future revenue [1] - The company projects FY2026Q1 net revenue (including Dongfang Zhenxuan) to grow by 2% to 5% to USD 1.464 to 1.507 billion, with conservative guidance due to a high base in FY25Q1 and rescheduling of K12 business due to the early Spring Festival in 2025 [1] Group 2 - Daiwa noted that after reviewing New Oriental-S's summer semester operations for 2025 and the performance of Dongfang Zhenxuan, the overall business development is stabilizing, with improved K-9 fall student retention rates and no further deterioration in overseas exam preparation services [2] - New Oriental announced plans to distribute no less than 50% of its previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders in the form of dividends or share buybacks starting from FY2026, which could potentially exceed 100% [2] - The anticipated shareholder return ratio is seen as a significant positive catalyst for the stock [2]