Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities has raised the target price for New Oriental-S (09901) to HKD 45.4, citing potential catalysts on the horizon, including improved overseas business performance and increased profit margins [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast and Target Price Adjustment - The non-GAAP earnings per share forecast for the fiscal years 2026 to 2027 has been increased by 4% and 5% respectively, primarily due to a smaller-than-expected decline in overseas business revenue and improved profit margins [1] - The target price for New Oriental's U.S. stock has been raised to USD 58.2, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 2: Potential Catalysts - Shareholder returns are expected to improve, considering the company holds USD 4.8 billion in cash and has strong free cash flow generation capabilities projected to reach USD 500 million to USD 700 million from fiscal years 2026 to 2028. The current dividend payout ratio is equivalent to 50% of net profit, with significant room for increase. A 100% payout ratio in fiscal year 2026 would yield a dividend yield of 4.5% [2] - Overseas business performance is anticipated to exceed expectations, with management guiding for a single-digit percentage decline in overseas revenue for the August quarter and fiscal year 2026. Non-U.S./U.K. consulting and related services, which account for about 60% of consulting revenue, are expected to grow, partially offsetting declines in the U.S. (double-digit decline) and U.K. (moderate decline) [2] - The K9 business is expected to accelerate again, despite a potential slowdown in revenue growth for the August quarter due to course scheduling adjustments and competition from local small institutions. Growth is expected to resume in the November quarter as these negative factors dissipate [2] - Profit margin resilience is evident, with cost control measures, improved margins in K12 and Dongfang Zhenxuan, and a reduction in losses from the cultural tourism business expected to offset pressure on overseas business profit margins, driving an expansion in non-GAAP operating profit margins for fiscal year 2026 [2]

Group 1 - New Oriental-S (09901) shares increased by over 5%, reaching a price of HKD 41.62 with a trading volume of HKD 114 million [1] - Guosheng Securities reported that as of FY25Q4, the company's deferred revenue (customer prepayments) was USD 1.955 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 9.8%, indicating growth in the collection side which supports future revenue [1] - The company projects FY2026Q1 net revenue (including Dongfang Zhenxuan) to grow by 2% to 5% year-over-year, reaching USD 1.464 to 1.507 billion, with conservative guidance due to a high base in FY25Q1 and rescheduling of K12 business due to the early Spring Festival in 2025 [1] Group 2 - Daiwa noted that after reviewing New Oriental-S's operational status for the summer semester of 2025 and the performance of Dongfang Zhenxuan for FY2025, the overall business development of the group appears stable, with improved K-9 fall student retention rates and no further deterioration in overseas exam preparation services [2] - New Oriental announced plans to distribute no less than 50% of its net profit attributable to shareholders from the previous fiscal year in the form of dividends or share buybacks starting from FY2026 [2] - Daiwa believes that the anticipated shareholder return ratio could significantly exceed the group's commitment of 50%, potentially reaching high double-digit percentages or even over 100%, which is seen as a key positive catalyst for the shares [2]

Group 1 - New Oriental-S (09901) saw a stock increase of over 5%, reaching HKD 41.62 with a trading volume of HKD 114 million [1] - Guosheng Securities reported that as of FY25Q4, the company's deferred revenue (customer prepayments) was USD 1.955 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 9.8%, indicating growth in the collection side which supports future revenue [1] - The company projects FY2026Q1 net revenue (including Dongfang Zhenxuan) to grow by 2% to 5% to USD 1.464 to 1.507 billion, with conservative guidance due to a high base in FY25Q1 and rescheduling of K12 business due to the early Spring Festival in 2025 [1] Group 2 - Daiwa noted that after reviewing New Oriental-S's summer semester operations for 2025 and the performance of Dongfang Zhenxuan, the overall business development is stabilizing, with improved K-9 fall student retention rates and no further deterioration in overseas exam preparation services [2] - New Oriental announced plans to distribute no less than 50% of its previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders in the form of dividends or share buybacks starting from FY2026, which could potentially exceed 100% [2] - The anticipated shareholder return ratio is seen as a significant positive catalyst for the stock [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][4][11] Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of approximately 1.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of about 58%, significantly exceeding the upper guidance of 50.8% [1] - The operating profit for Q1 2025 was approximately 34.8 million RMB, marking a return to profitability year-on-year [1] - Non-GAAP net profit reached approximately 140 million RMB, well above Bloomberg consensus expectations of 70 million RMB, driven by rapid growth in core business and improved operational efficiency through AI [1][3] - The company announced a new share repurchase plan with a total amount of 100 million USD to enhance shareholder returns [1] Revenue and Growth Projections - K12 business accounted for about 85% of total revenue in Q1, with a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 80% [2] - Traditional learning services grew over 35% year-on-year, while new quality education services achieved triple-digit growth for four consecutive quarters [2] - The company expects Q2 total revenue to grow by 28.5% to 30.5% year-on-year, with traditional learning services projected to see a slight increase of around 10% due to seasonal effects [2] Profitability and Efficiency - The company achieved a non-GAAP net profit margin of 9.2% in Q1 2025, indicating a significant improvement in profitability [3] - The reduction in sales, R&D, and management expense ratios by 6.0, 5.9, and 0.3 percentage points respectively contributed to enhanced operational efficiency [3] - For the full year, the company anticipates a significant narrowing of losses, projecting a non-GAAP operating loss of approximately 350 million RMB, a reduction of nearly 70% year-on-year [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are maintained at 5.726 billion RMB, 7.244 billion RMB, and 8.589 billion RMB respectively [5][11] - Non-GAAP operating profit forecasts are projected at -350 million RMB for 2025, 58 million RMB for 2026, and 143 million RMB for 2027 [5][11] - The target price is set at 4.84 USD, based on a price-to-sales ratio of 1.5x for 2025 [4][11]