K12业务

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高途集团(GOTU US):业绩超预期,看好全年利润改善
HTSC· 2025-05-16 10:20
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][4][11] Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of approximately 1.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of about 58%, significantly exceeding the upper guidance of 50.8% [1] - The operating profit for Q1 2025 was approximately 34.8 million RMB, marking a return to profitability year-on-year [1] - Non-GAAP net profit reached approximately 140 million RMB, well above Bloomberg consensus expectations of 70 million RMB, driven by rapid growth in core business and improved operational efficiency through AI [1][3] - The company announced a new share repurchase plan with a total amount of 100 million USD to enhance shareholder returns [1] Revenue and Growth Projections - K12 business accounted for about 85% of total revenue in Q1, with a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 80% [2] - Traditional learning services grew over 35% year-on-year, while new quality education services achieved triple-digit growth for four consecutive quarters [2] - The company expects Q2 total revenue to grow by 28.5% to 30.5% year-on-year, with traditional learning services projected to see a slight increase of around 10% due to seasonal effects [2] Profitability and Efficiency - The company achieved a non-GAAP net profit margin of 9.2% in Q1 2025, indicating a significant improvement in profitability [3] - The reduction in sales, R&D, and management expense ratios by 6.0, 5.9, and 0.3 percentage points respectively contributed to enhanced operational efficiency [3] - For the full year, the company anticipates a significant narrowing of losses, projecting a non-GAAP operating loss of approximately 350 million RMB, a reduction of nearly 70% year-on-year [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are maintained at 5.726 billion RMB, 7.244 billion RMB, and 8.589 billion RMB respectively [5][11] - Non-GAAP operating profit forecasts are projected at -350 million RMB for 2025, 58 million RMB for 2026, and 143 million RMB for 2027 [5][11] - The target price is set at 4.84 USD, based on a price-to-sales ratio of 1.5x for 2025 [4][11]