｜智通财经见习记者 张蕊 在低度酒赛道格局重塑的激荡周期，预调鸡尾酒RIO锐澳（下称"锐澳"）正站在品类命运的十字路口。 近几年，锐澳母公司百润股份业绩经历了从"宅经济"红利下的高光时刻到增长失速的转变。 今年，百润股份的业绩压力更为显著，8月26日百润股份披露的半年报数据显示，2025年上半年百润股 份的营业总收入为14.89亿元，同比下滑8.56%；归母净利润3.89亿元，同比下降3.32%；扣非后的归母 净利润为3.56亿元，同比下滑了9.04%。核心因素依然在于主营业务预调鸡尾酒的竞争位势塌陷与增长 断点。 从主营产品来看，占比88%的酒类产品营收为12.97亿元，同比下滑9.35%；而在2024年展现出较强经营 韧性的香料香精板块，这半年来也趋于乏力，营业收入比上年同期下滑3.91%至1.69亿元，占总营收的 12%。 在经历了2024年经销商网络调整收缩后，百润2025上半年重启渠道扩张步伐。截至6月30日，公司在全 国的预调鸡尾酒经销商总数达到2268个，较去年年末净增约10%。其中，华北地区增幅最为显著，达到 16%，目前拥有560个经销商。 | 图 | | --- | 片来源：百润股份202 ...

证券研究报告 百润股份 (002568 CH) Q2 收入承压，期待威士忌业务表现 2025 年 8 月 27 日│中国内地 饮料 公司发布 2025 年半年报，25H1 总营收/归母净利/扣非净利 14.9/3.9/3.6 亿， 同比-8.6%/-3.3%/-9.0%；25Q2 总营收/归母净利/扣非净利 7.5/2.1/1.8 亿， 同比-9.0%/-10.9%/-22.6%。25Q2 公司仍以库存去化为主，收入同比延续承 压态势，微醺表现相对较好；近期公司前期布局的新品陆续上市，5 月底预调 酒新品轻享推出市场陆续打款发货，6 月推出果冻酒；崃州单一麦芽威士忌 6 月官宣铺货聚焦华南市场，威士忌产品顺利铺货。期待预调酒新品发布扩充 产品矩阵后稳步增长，关注威士忌铺货动销打造第二曲线。维持"买入"。 预调酒收入承压，加速开拓经销商 25H1 预调鸡尾酒/食用香精营收 13.0/1.7 亿，同比-9.4%/-3.9%，预调酒销 量/箱价同比-12.7%/+3.8%，我们预计 Q2 成熟大单品强爽/清爽同比销售承 压，微醺表现相对靠前，公司持续丰富口味/规格延长生命周期，持续推出 新品轻享和果冻酒，形成新增长 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution and growth of the Japanese whisky industry, drawing parallels to the emerging whisky market in China, emphasizing the need for local adaptation and innovation to establish a mature industry [2]. Chapter 1: Development and Rise of Whisky - Japanese whisky has seen a steady rise in international status over more than a century, inheriting and localizing Scottish whisky craftsmanship to cater to Eastern consumer preferences [2]. - The development phases of Japanese whisky include: - Initial phase (1923-1952) - High growth phase (1953-1983) - Decline phase (1984-2008) - Resurgence phase (2009-present) [2]. - Key lessons for China's whisky industry from Japan's early development include: - Accelerating the establishment of local flavor evaluation and aging certification systems - Adapting raw materials and iterating processes to create differentiated styles - Innovating consumption scenarios to cater to diverse taste preferences and generational engagement [2]. Chapter 2: Evolution of China's Whisky Market Structure Trend 1: Import Substitution and Penetration Rate Increase - The domestic whisky market in China has experienced explosive growth, with the market size reaching approximately 5.5 billion yuan in 2023, a 10% year-on-year increase, and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.6% from 2013 [3]. - In 2023, domestic whisky production reached 50 million liters, a 127% increase year-on-year, surpassing imports of 32.62 million liters for the first time [3]. Trend 2: Price Band Differentiation and Consumption Scenario Expansion - The Chinese whisky market shows price band differentiation, with sales in the 0-500 yuan and 500-1000 yuan segments increasing from 36% and 24% in 2022 to 45% and 25% in 2024, respectively [6]. - The high-end whisky segment (1500 yuan and above) has seen a decline in sales share from 28% in 2022 to 20% in 2024, attributed to global economic fluctuations and previous overvaluation [6]. Trend 3: Flourishing Distilleries and Prominent Brand Advantages - Despite rapid capacity expansion, the Chinese whisky industry is still in its early stages, with a significant portion of domestic whisky aged less than two years [7]. - The concentration of distilleries is notable in regions like Zhejiang, Yunnan, Sichuan, and Fujian, which may enhance local tourism and cultural integration [7].

Core Points - The European Union (EU) has unanimously approved a retaliatory tariff list targeting key American industries worth €93 billion, including aircraft, automobiles, and whiskey, shortly after Ursula von der Leyen's visit to Beijing [1][5] - This shift in EU policy reflects a strategic pivot towards China, as the EU seeks to redefine its relationship with China amidst increasing pressure from the U.S. [3][11] Group 1: Economic Implications - The EU's tariff list includes €21 billion targeting agricultural products like soybeans and corn, aimed at Republican strongholds, and €72 billion focused on high-value industrial goods, directly affecting key states in the upcoming U.S. elections [5][6] - The EU's trade deficit with the U.S. has surged, while EU investments in the U.S. have created 4 million jobs, indicating a complex economic interdependence that could be disrupted by a trade war [6][8] Group 2: Technological Considerations - The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act has provided substantial subsidies that threaten to siphon off European renewable energy companies, highlighting the EU's need for green technology cooperation with China [8][9] Group 3: Geopolitical Context - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has placed additional strain on the EU, which bears a significant burden of refugee costs while U.S. arms manufacturers have seen profits soar, prompting the EU to seek new strategic partnerships [9][11] - The EU's recent actions signify a desire to assert its sovereignty and independence from U.S. influence, aiming to become a partner to all major powers rather than a subordinate ally [11]

Summary of Baijiu Co. Conference Call Company Overview - Baijiu Co. originated from the flavor and fragrance industry and has focused on the pre-mixed cocktail channel since establishing its subsidiary, Baijiu Spirits, in 2003, accumulating over 20 years of experience [3] - The company has successfully cultivated popular products like "Mildly Intoxicated" and "Strong Refreshing" and has proactively launched its Laizhou distillery for whiskey production since 2021, marking the beginning of its second growth curve [3][4] Industry Insights Pre-Mixed Cocktail Market - The pre-mixed cocktail market in China has low penetration rates, increasing from 0.1% in 2008 to 0.7% in 2023, significantly lower than the U.S. (9%) and Japan (22%) [5] - The market has experienced various phases: an enlightenment period before the 21st century, rapid growth from 2013 to 2015, and a deep adjustment phase from 2015 to 2017 [5] - Factors driving market growth include the demand for personalization, diversification, and health-conscious drinking among young consumers, alongside precise marketing strategies by manufacturers [5][8] Whiskey Market - The Chinese whiskey market has seen rapid growth, with the overall scale increasing from 1.288 billion yuan in 2013 to 5.5 billion yuan in 2023, averaging a growth rate of 16% [9] - Despite the growth, whiskey penetration remains low, with over 70% of the market dominated by foreign brands [9] - Young consumers are increasingly seeking diverse drinking options, which may lead to a rise in domestic whiskey brands [9][10] Key Business Strategies Product Development - Baijiu Co. has undergone three product cycles in its pre-mixed cocktail business, achieving significant sales growth from 9 million cases to 25 million cases between 2018 and 2021 [6] - The company plans to focus on cultivating refreshing products and introducing new categories to drive revenue growth in 2025 [4][8] Marketing and Sales - The company has leveraged its marketing experience from the pre-mixed cocktail sector to promote its whiskey products, utilizing emotional marketing, pop-up events, and interactive promotions [4][14] - Baijiu Co. has established a comprehensive channel system primarily focused on offline retail, aligning well with whiskey consumption channels [4][12] Pricing and Product Specifications - In March 2025, Baijiu Co. launched two whiskey products priced around 100 yuan, targeting the mass market with various specifications to cater to different consumption scenarios [13] - The company has also introduced a range of new whiskey products, including a flavor blind box that quickly gained popularity among consumers [13] Future Outlook - For 2025, Baijiu Co. anticipates a recovery in its pre-mixed cocktail business, supported by new product launches and a focus on marketing strategies [16] - The whiskey business is expected to see steady growth as new products are rolled out and sales channels are expanded [16] - Long-term growth potential remains strong, with a focus on product matrix expansion and consumer engagement strategies [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the UK government's efforts are yielding results in the context of the UK-US trade agreement, particularly for the Scotch whisky industry [1] - The Scotch Whisky Association supports a pragmatic approach to achieve zero tariffs with the US whisky industry as soon as possible [1]

Group 1 - The UK and India have reached a "milestone" free trade agreement aimed at strengthening economic ties between the fifth and sixth largest economies in the world, with the UK expecting an economic boost of £4.8 billion in the long term [1] - The agreement includes significant tariff reductions on UK exports to India, particularly on whisky and automobiles, with whisky tariffs halving from 150% to 75% and then to 40% by the tenth year, while automobile tariffs will drop from over 100% to 10% subject to quotas [2] - The deal is projected to increase bilateral trade by £25.5 billion and boost UK GDP by £4.8 billion, with India expected to cut tariffs worth over £400 million annually at the agreement's inception, rising to approximately £900 million after ten years [2] Group 2 - The agreement does not include legal services, which has been described as a "missed opportunity" by the Law Society of England and Wales, and it does not alter the UK's visa system or broader immigration strategy [3] - India will maintain tariffs on dairy products, while the UK will keep restrictions on certain agricultural products like basmati rice [4] - The agreement is seen as a significant achievement for the UK, being one of the first countries to establish a free trade agreement with India, although the full benefits are expected to materialize over time [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company shows resilience in its ready-to-drink cocktail business, with a projected recovery in growth for 2025. The whisky business has entered the product sales phase, which is expected to be a significant highlight for 2025 [6]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast based on the latest performance and increased expectations for whisky business profitability, projecting EPS of 0.77, 1.00, and 1.29 for 2025-2027 [6]. Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profitability - 2024 projected revenue is 30.48 billion, with a decline of 6.61% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected at 7.19 billion, down 11.15% year-on-year [2][6]. - For 2025 Q1, revenue is estimated at 740 million, a decrease of 8.1% year-on-year, while net profit is expected to be 180 million, an increase of 7.03% year-on-year [6]. Revenue Growth Forecast - Revenue growth rates are projected at 23.00% for 2025, 23.45% for 2026, and 20.43% for 2027 [2][8]. - The ready-to-drink cocktail business is expected to recover in 2025, with an estimated revenue of around 650 million for Q1 [6]. Profitability Metrics - Gross margin is expected to improve from 69.67% in 2024 to 73.08% by 2027 [2][8]. - The net profit margin is projected to increase from 23.59% in 2024 to 24.37% in 2027 [8]. Valuation Ratios - The P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 40.87 in 2024 to 20.16 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [2][8]. - The P/B ratio is projected to decline from 6.27 in 2024 to 4.05 in 2027 [2][8]. Business Segment Insights Ready-to-Drink Cocktails - The ready-to-drink cocktail segment generated 26.8 billion in revenue for 2024, showing a slight decline but with a stable development outlook due to consumer loyalty and ongoing product updates [6]. Whisky Business - The whisky segment has launched new products and is expected to contribute significantly to revenue in 2025, with a strong product pipeline and marketing strategy [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, primarily due to strong sales pressure on its flagship product, while also indicating improvements in gross margin and a focus on key product marketing [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.05 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.6% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 720 million yuan, down 11.2% [1][2]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 660 million yuan, with net profit of 140 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year revenue decline of 18.0% [2]. - Cash receipts for 2024 totaled 3.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.2% year-on-year [2]. Product Performance - The company's food flavor segment generated revenue of 340 million yuan, an increase of 6.3% year-on-year, while the ready-to-drink cocktail segment reported revenue of 2.68 billion yuan, down 7.2% [2]. - The ready-to-drink cocktail segment faced pressure due to a high base from the previous year, expected to account for nearly half of total revenue [2]. Channel Analysis - Revenue from offline, digital, and ready-to-drink channels in 2024 was 2.71 billion yuan, 270 million yuan, and 40 million yuan, respectively, with declines of 1.5%, 30.8%, and 43.6% year-on-year [3]. - The company shifted its focus back to offline development post-pandemic, reducing online investment and maintaining price expectations [3]. Margin and Cost Structure - The gross margin for 2024 was 69.7%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from cost reductions [4]. - The gross margin for food flavors was 69.1%, up 1.5 percentage points, while ready-to-drink cocktails had a gross margin of 70.0%, up 2.4 percentage points [4]. - Sales and management expense ratios increased by 2.9 and 0.8 percentage points, respectively, with marketing expenses rising to 400 million yuan, an increase of 11.7% [4]. Future Outlook - The ready-to-drink cocktail business is stabilizing, and new whiskey products are being rolled out, with expectations for earnings per share (EPS) of 0.78, 0.89, and 1.03 yuan for 2025-2027 [2][5]. - The current stock price corresponds to a 34 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2025, leading to an upgrade to a "strongly recommended" rating [5].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Strongly Recommended" [3][6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.05 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 720 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.6% and 11.2% respectively, primarily due to the high base effect from the previous year [6][7] - The pre-mixed cocktail business stabilized in Q1 2025, while the new whiskey products began distribution, indicating a positive outlook for future growth [6][7] - The company is expected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 0.78, 0.89, and 1.03 yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with the current stock price corresponding to a 34 times price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company experienced a revenue decline of 6.6% to 3.05 billion yuan, with a net profit of 720 million yuan, down 11.2% year-on-year [6][7] - The gross profit margin improved to 69.7%, up 3.0 percentage points from the previous year, benefiting from cost reductions [6][7] - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 was 23.6%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [6][7] Product Performance Summary - The pre-mixed cocktail revenue was 2.68 billion yuan in 2024, down 7.2% year-on-year, while the sales volume decreased by 8.8% [6][7] - The company’s food flavoring segment saw a revenue increase of 6.3% to 340 million yuan in 2024 [6][7] - The company plans to enhance market promotion efforts around key products to drive growth [6][7] Market Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing whiskey market, targeting younger consumers and competing with international brands [6][7] - The report emphasizes the potential for significant market expansion as the whiskey category enters a rapid growth phase [6][7]