1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market first declined and then rose, with rubber prices closing higher. The domestic main producing areas are in the off - season, while the southern part of Thailand is in the peak production season. Qingdao port inventories continue to accumulate, but the rate of accumulation in general trade has narrowed. The demand from tire enterprises is mixed, with semi - steel tire capacity utilization slightly increasing and all - steel tire capacity utilization slightly decreasing. It is recommended to watch the pressure near the previous highs for the ru2605 and nr2603 contracts and stay on the sidelines for now [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The natural rubber market first declined and then rose, with rubber prices closing higher. In the import rubber market, traders changed positions and closed arbitrage positions, and factories made appropriate low - price purchases. In the domestic spot market, the trading atmosphere was average, and downstream enterprises only had a small amount of rigid demand inquiries with insufficient actual order follow - up [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic main producing areas are in the off - season, and the southern part of Thailand is in the peak production season. Qingdao port inventories continue to accumulate, with African rubber accounting for most of the incoming goods. The inventory in bonded warehouses continues to increase, and the inventory accumulation rate in general trade has narrowed. The willingness of downstream enterprises to stock up at low prices has improved, and the total outbound volume has increased. The capacity utilization of tire enterprises is expected to be stable with a slight downward trend [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For the ru2605 and nr2603 contracts, pay attention to the pressure near the previous highs and stay on the sidelines for now [7]. 3.2. Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures rose by 3.03% this week, and the main contract price of 20 - rubber rose by 2.75% [10]. - **Position Analysis**: Not elaborated on in detail in the content. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of January 23, the spread between the May and September contracts of Shanghai rubber was 95, and the spread between the March and April contracts of 20 - rubber was - 30 [20]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of January 22, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 109,870 tons, an increase of 1,480 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 55,339 tons, a decrease of 1,411 tons from last week [25]. 3.3. Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of January 22, the price of state - owned whole latex was 15,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [28]. - **20 - rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of January 22, the basis of 20 - rubber was 530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 970 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 3.4. Upstream Situation - **Thai Raw Material Price and Processing Profit**: As of January 23, the price of field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 57.6 (- 0.4) Thai baht/kg; the price of cup lump was 53 (+ 0.8) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 17 US dollars/ton from last week [40]. - **Domestic Producing Area Raw Material Price**: The Yunnan and Hainan producing areas in China are in the off - season [43]. 3.5. Industry Situation - **Import Volume**: In December 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 803,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.84% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4%. The cumulative import volume from January to December 2025 was 6.6751 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.94% [49]. - **Qingdao Inventory**: As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons or 2.94%. The bonded warehouse inventory was 99,500 tons, an increase of 6.42%; the general trade inventory was 485,400 tons, an increase of 2.26% [53]. 3.6. Downstream Situation - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of January 22, the capacity utilization of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.92 percentage points. The capacity utilization of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 22.14 percentage points [56]. - **Tire Export Volume**: In December 2025, China's tire export volume was 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. The cumulative export volume from January to December 2025 was 8.4307 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38% [59]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Truck Sales)**: In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. The heavy - truck market in 2025 ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles [62].

Group 1: Report Summary - The domestic urea market fluctuated strongly this week. Although there was no significant change in actual export volume, market sentiment was stimulated by export expectations, which drove downstream purchases [6]. - Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production, increasing domestic urea output. It is expected that output will likely increase next week as 3 - 5 shut - down plants may resume production [6]. - Agricultural demand is in the traditional off - season, with a tepid trading atmosphere. Downstream buyers are resistant to high - priced goods and adopt a just - in - time purchasing strategy. Industrial demand maintains a rigid need, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises fluctuates slightly [6]. - Due to plant maintenance and the promotion of reserves and rigid demand, domestic urea enterprise inventories continued to decline this week. However, inventories may increase slightly during the New Year's Day holiday due to reduced trading and plant restarts [6]. - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1730 - 1800 in the short term [6]. Group 2: Futures Market - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures rose this week, with a weekly increase of 0.81% [9]. - As of December 31, the UR 5 - 9 spread was 34 [14]. - As of December 30, the number of Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts was 12381, an increase of 1631 from last week [20]. Group 3: Spot Market - As of December 30, the mainstream price of urea in Shandong was 1710 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 1710 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [26]. - As of December 30, the FOB price of urea in China was 390 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [30]. - As of December 30, the urea basis was - 33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton from last week [34]. Group 4: Upstream Situation - As of December 31, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 695 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [37]. - As of December 30, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.98 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.27 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [37]. Group 5: Industry Situation - As of December 31, China's urea output was 135.91 tons, an increase of 2.57 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 1.93%. The average daily output was 19.42 tons, an increase of 0.37 tons from last week. The urea capacity utilization rate was 80.29%, a month - on - month increase of 1.52% [40]. - As of December 25, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 17.7 tons, an increase of 3.9 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 28.26%. As of December 31, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 101.92 tons, a decrease of 4.97 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.65% [43]. - According to customs statistics, in November 2025, urea exports were 60.18 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 49.95% [46]. Group 6: Downstream Situation - As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.75%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.62 percentage points. The operating rate of enterprises is expected to fluctuate slightly next week [49]. - As of December 25, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 58.07%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points from last week [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices rose collectively this week, with the ChiNext Index up over 2%. The four stock index futures also rose collectively, and small and medium-cap stocks outperformed large-cap blue-chip stocks. Market trading activity increased slightly compared to last week. Although the US restarted the tariff war, the market's reaction has become dull. With the release of semi-annual performance forecasts, the market is optimistic about the first-half earnings of listed companies. The previous series of growth-stabilizing policies are starting to take effect, and the market has strong expectations for positive economic data in the second quarter. The fundamental recovery supports the stock market, and with the approaching of the Politburo meeting in July, market bulls may pre-layout, driving the stock market higher. The strategy is to lightly buy on dips [6][97]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Futures: IF2509 rose 1.46% for the week, IH2509 rose 1.27%, IC2509 rose 2.69%, and IM2509 rose 3.40%. - Spot: The CSI 300 rose 0.82%, the SSE 50 rose 0.60%, the CSI 500 rose 1.96%, and the CSI 1000 rose 2.36% [10]. 3.2 News Overview - Trump announced a new round of tariff rates, which may have a negative impact on the market, but the market's reaction has become dull. - China's June CPI rose 0.1% year-on-year, turning from a decline to an increase, which is positive for the market. - As of July 10, 129 out of 147 A-share listed companies that have announced their semi-annual performance forecasts are expected to be profitable, which is positive for the market [6][13][97]. 3.3 Weekly Market Data - **Domestic Major Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.78%, the STAR 50 rose 0.98%, the SME 100 rose 0.73%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.36% [16]. - **External Major Indices (as of Thursday)**: The S&P 500 rose 1.11%, the UK FTSE 100 rose 1.73%, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.93%, and the Nikkei 225 fell 0.61% [17]. - **Industry Sector Performance**: Industry sectors generally rose, with real estate, steel, and non-bank finance sectors strengthening significantly, while coal and banking sectors weakened slightly [21]. - **Industry Sector Main Fund Flow**: Industry main funds were generally net outflows, with significant net outflows in electronics, computer, and national defense and military industries [25]. - **SHIBOR Short-Term Interest Rates**: SHIBOR short-term interest rates showed differentiation, and the capital price was low [29]. - **Other Data**: This week, major shareholders net sold 6.61 billion yuan in the secondary market, the restricted-share lifting market value was 43.09 billion yuan, and northbound funds traded a total of 688.585 billion yuan [30]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - The market is expected to be supported by the fundamental recovery, and with the approaching of the Politburo meeting in July, market bulls may pre-layout, driving the stock market higher. The strategy is to lightly buy on dips [97].