博汇纸业（600966） 白卡龙头迎周期拐点，整合预期打开成长空间 西南证券研究院 轻工研究团队 2026年2月 核心观点 1 推荐逻辑：1）白卡纸行业供给增长放缓，供应压力缩减，行业的供需格局有望边际改善，吨盈利或迎 来触底回升；2）需求端看，高端白卡及白卡出口的需求亮眼，同时在咖啡茶饮等增量需求支撑下，预 计需求端仍将保持平稳增长态势；3）博汇纸业作为国内白卡纸龙头，背靠全球浆纸龙头金光集团，成 为其唯一A股上市平台，在同业竞争资产整合完成后，公司的供应链实力进一步增强，有望带来盈利弹 性的充分释放。 行业盈利触底，供给增长放缓，供需格局有望改善。过去几年行业供给大幅释放，供需失衡导致白卡纸 价一度跌至近4000元/吨，纸厂盈利显著承压。进入25年下半年，"反内卷"倡议下龙头停机供给收缩 ，新产能投产速度明显放缓，纸价从25Q4起触底反弹，浆价目前仍在低位盘整，吨纸盈利有望逐步回 升。未来供给结构持续优化，集中度提升，龙头优势进一步夯实。 以纸代塑趋势不减，结构性机会带动消费量增长趋稳。虽然消费需求的暂时疲弱对白卡纸需求形成一定 压制，但考虑到以纸代塑的政策支持、茶饮放量带动食品级白卡需求增长、白卡出口保 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Bohui Paper Industry [4]. Core Insights - The white card paper industry is expected to see a marginal improvement in supply-demand dynamics as supply growth slows down, potentially leading to a rebound in profitability per ton [4]. - Demand for high-end white card paper and exports remains strong, supported by incremental demand from coffee and tea beverages, indicating stable growth in the demand side [4]. - Bohui Paper, as a leading player in the domestic white card paper market, benefits from its backing by the global pulp and paper giant, Golding Group, enhancing its supply chain capabilities and profitability potential [4]. Company Overview - Bohui Paper Industry, established in 1994 and listed in 2004, is a leading white card paper manufacturer in China. The company was acquired by Golding Group in 2020, becoming its only A-share listed platform for domestic pulp and paper assets [10][12]. - The company focuses on various paper products, including white card paper, cultural paper, boxboard, and gypsum face paper, with white card paper being its core product [10][12]. - Bohui has production bases in Shandong and Jiangsu, continuously optimizing its product structure and expanding into high-value markets to increase market share [10][12]. Industry Analysis - The white card paper industry is currently experiencing a cyclical bottom, with expectations for marginal improvement in profitability as supply growth slows and demand stabilizes [4][36]. - The industry has faced significant supply-demand imbalances in recent years, leading to price declines, but recent initiatives to reduce supply and improve efficiency are expected to support price recovery [4][36]. - The trend of replacing plastic with paper continues to drive demand for white card paper, particularly in food packaging and environmentally friendly applications [39][42]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for Bohui Paper to be CNY 186 million, CNY 408 million, and CNY 551 million for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 54x, 25x, and 18x [4].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Bohui Paper Industry has seen a stock price increase of 5.06%, reaching 7.48 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 10 billion CNY [1] - Bohui Paper Industry, established on April 29, 1994, and listed on June 8, 2004, is located in Zibo City, Shandong Province, and primarily engages in the production and sales of mechanical paper [1] - The company's main revenue composition includes: whiteboard paper 62.22%, cultural paper 25.10%, boxboard paper 6.89%, gypsum face paper 3.04%, and others 2.75% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, Zhongyou Fund has a significant position in Bohui Paper Industry, with its fund Zhongyou Small and Medium Cap Flexible Allocation Mixed A holding 880,000 shares, accounting for 2.99% of the fund's net value [2] - The fund has generated an estimated floating profit of approximately 316,800 CNY today [2] - The fund manager, Cao Si, has been in position for 11 years and 252 days, with the fund's total asset scale currently at 324 million CNY [2]

资料显示，山东博汇纸业股份有限公司位于山东省淄博市桓台县马桥镇工业路北首，成立日期1994年4 月29日，上市日期2004年6月8日，公司主营业务涉及机制纸的生产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：白纸 板62.22%，文化纸25.10%，箱板纸6.89%，石膏护面纸3.04%，其他(补充)2.75%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 1月20日，博汇纸业涨5.01%，截至发稿，报7.12元/股，成交1.48亿元，换手率1.60%，总市值95.18亿 元。博汇纸业股价已经连续3天上涨，区间累计涨幅4.15%。 数据显示，大成基金旗下1只基金重仓博汇纸业。大成丰享回报混合A（009653）三季度持有股数16.4万 股，与上期相比持股数量不变，占基金净值比例为0.49%，位居第五大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚 取约5.58万元。连续3天上涨期间浮盈赚取4.43万元。 责任编辑：小浪快报 大成丰享回报混合A（009653）成立日期2020年11月18日，最新规模3678.92万。今年以来收益1.31%， 同类排名7165/8846；近一年收益6.42%，同类排名6969/8091；成立以来收益18.1%。 郑煌斌累计任职时间28天， ...

Core Viewpoint - Bohui Paper's stock price has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline of 3.07% year-to-date and a notable drop of 4.20% over the last five trading days, despite a 10.89% increase over the past 20 days and a 31.35% increase over the past 60 days [2]. Company Overview - Bohui Paper, established on April 29, 1994, and listed on June 8, 2004, is located in Huantai County, Zibo City, Shandong Province. The company specializes in the production and sales of mechanical paper [2]. - The revenue composition of Bohui Paper includes: whiteboard paper (62.22%), cultural paper (25.10%), boxboard paper (6.89%), gypsum face paper (3.04%), and others (2.75%) [2]. - The company is classified under the light industry manufacturing sector, specifically in the paper industry focusing on bulk paper [2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Bohui Paper achieved a revenue of 14.45 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.46%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 18.57% to 121 million yuan [2]. - Since its A-share listing, Bohui Paper has distributed a total of 889 million yuan in dividends, with 94.36 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Bohui Paper was 45,800, a decrease of 6.94% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 7.46% to 29,216 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 8.6447 million shares, an increase of 310,200 shares compared to the previous period. Conversely, the Southern CSI 1000 ETF reduced its holdings by 86,800 shares [3].

Core Viewpoint - Bohui Paper's stock price has shown significant growth this year, with a year-to-date increase of 31.67%, while facing a slight decline in recent trading sessions [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On December 31, Bohui Paper's stock price decreased by 2.17%, trading at 6.76 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 9.037 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has experienced a 9.21% increase over the last five trading days, an 8.51% increase over the last 20 days, and a 36.29% increase over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Bohui Paper reported a revenue of 14.450 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.46%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 18.57% to 121 million CNY [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 889 million CNY, with 94.356 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Bohui Paper was 45,800, a decrease of 6.94% from the previous period, with an average of 29,216 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 7.46% [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 8.6447 million shares, an increase of 310,200 shares from the previous period [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Bohui Paper has shown significant stock price growth and positive trading activity, indicating investor interest and potential market confidence in the company [1][2]. Group 2 - As of December 30, Bohui Paper's stock price increased by 2.19% to 6.99 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.51 billion CNY and a total market capitalization of 93.45 billion CNY [1]. - The company has experienced a year-to-date stock price increase of 36.15%, with a 14.40% rise over the last five trading days, a 12.38% increase over the last 20 days, and a 39.52% rise over the last 60 days [1]. - Bohui Paper's main business revenue composition includes white paperboard (62.22%), cultural paper (25.10%), boxboard (6.89%), gypsum face paper (3.04%), and other (2.75%) [1]. - As of September 30, the company reported a total revenue of 14.45 billion CNY for the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.46%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 18.57% to 121 million CNY [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 889 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 94.36 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 6.94% to 45,800, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 7.46% to 29,216 shares [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - Bohui Paper's stock price has shown significant growth this year, with a year-to-date increase of 29.92%, while facing a slight decline in recent trading sessions [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On December 26, Bohui Paper's stock price decreased by 2.06%, trading at 6.67 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 8.917 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has experienced a 5-day increase of 8.63%, a 20-day increase of 5.04%, and a 60-day increase of 38.10% [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Bohui Paper reported a revenue of 14.450 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.46% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 121 million CNY, which represents a year-on-year decrease of 18.57% [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Bohui Paper was 45,800, a decrease of 6.94% from the previous period [2]. - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 7.46% to 29,216 shares [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 889 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 94.356 million CNY distributed over the last three years [3].

Core Viewpoint - Despite high costs and pressure on profitability in the paper industry, Bohui Paper (600966.SH) is increasing its investment by expanding its production capacity and optimizing its product structure [1][4]. Group 1: Expansion Plans - Bohui Paper announced plans to produce 320,000 tons of chemical pulp annually, expanding from its current capacity of 95,000 tons, with a total investment of 1.701 billion yuan [1][3]. - The expansion aims to enhance self-sufficiency in chemical pulp, which constitutes 50%-70% of total paper production costs, thereby improving cost control and supporting the production of high-end paper products [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The company has experienced a significant decline in net profit over the past three years, projected to drop to 176 million yuan in 2024, while revenue increased by 3.46% in the first three quarters of this year, but net profit fell by 18.57% to 121 million yuan [4]. Group 3: Strategic Measures - Bohui Paper is implementing a multi-faceted strategy that includes production upgrades, asset optimization, and risk management through futures and derivatives trading to hedge against market price fluctuations [5][6]. - The company plans to sell idle assets for 32.978 million yuan to optimize its asset structure and reduce operational costs, while also investing up to 46 million yuan in new equipment for upgrading its chemical pulp production process [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - Bohui Paper Industry plans to invest 1.701 billion yuan to expand its chemical pulp project, increasing production capacity from 95,000 tons to 320,000 tons, representing a 237% increase [1][4]. Group 1: Investment and Expansion - The company aims to diversify its raw materials and products through this investment, which will enhance its production capabilities and efficiency [1][4]. - The project will utilize advanced international technology and equipment, incorporating automation, digitalization, and intelligent systems across production, logistics, energy, and water management [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 14.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.46%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 18.57% to 121 million yuan [4]. - The expansion may be a response to the company's recent financial performance of "increasing revenue without increasing profit" [4]. Group 3: Asset Management - In addition to the new investment, the company sold idle assets worth 32.978 million yuan to related parties and plans to purchase new equipment for upgrading its chemical pulp production process [5]. - The company is focused on reducing chemical consumption and costs associated with chemical pulp production through these upgrades [5]. Group 4: Company Overview - Bohui Paper Industry, registered in Hantai County, Zibo City, specializes in the research, production, and sales of paper products, including whiteboard paper, cultural paper, boxboard paper, and gypsum face paper [5]. - The company was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2004, has a registered capital of 1.34 billion yuan, and operates two major production bases in Shandong and Jiangsu, employing over 5,800 people [5].