每日晨报 2025年6月19日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 周三美股涨跌不一,大类资产走势震荡,铂金 创近 11 年来新高 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 宏观:"新供给侧改革"的序曲——2025 下半年宏观经济展望。主要经济数据 ● 预测:预计 2025年实际 GDP 增长 5.1%,可以完成 5%左右的全年目标,四 个季度分别为 5.4%、5.4%、4.9%、4.7%。其中,社会消费品零售总额增长 5.0%,消费品以旧换新对耐用品消费形成一定支撑。投资方面,固定资产投资 增长 3.7%,物价低位运行和关税成本上行压制企业利润,制造业投资增速小 幅回落,基建投资增速在政策性金融工具助力下小幅回暖,房地产开发投资继 续寻底。出口方面,短期抢出口有一定支撑,二季度出口将保持一定韧性,但 下半年出口增速可能转负,全年出口增速约为 1.5%。预计物价保持低位运行, 2025年 CPI 同比涨 ...

表 1： 紫光国芯微电子股份有限公司 公开发行可转换公司债券跟踪评级报 告（2025） 编号：信评委函字2025跟踪 0253 号 紫光国芯微电子股份有限公司 公开发行可转换公司债券跟踪评级报告（2025） 声 明 ? 本次评级为委托评级，中诚信国际及其评估人员与评级委托方、评级对象不存在任何其他影响本次 评级行为独立、 客观、公正的关联关系。 ? 本次评级依据评级对象提供或已经正式对外公布的信息，以及其他根据监管规定收集的信息，中诚 信国际按照相关 性、及时性、可靠性的原则对评级信息进行审慎分析，但中诚信国际对于相关信息的合法性、真实 性、完整性、准 确性不作任何保证。 ? 中诚信国际及项目人员履行了尽职调查和诚信义务，有充分理由保证本次评级遵循了真实、客观、 公正的原则。 ? 评级报告的评级结论是中诚信国际依据合理的内部信用评级标准和方法、评级程序做出的独立判 断，未受评级委托 报告的行为，中诚信国际不承担任何责任。 中诚信国际信用评级有限责任公司 方、评级对象和其他第三方的干预和影响。 ? 本评级报告对评级对象信用状况的任何表述和判断仅作为相关决策参考之用，并不意味着中诚信国 际实质性建议任 何使用人据 ...

证券代码： 002049 证券简称：紫光国微 紫光国芯微电子股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号：20250509 | | □特定对象调研 □ 分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 投资者关系活动 | □ 媒体采访  业绩说明会 | | 类别 | □ 新闻发布会 □ 路演活动 | | | □ 现场参观 | | | □ 其他 （请文字说明其他活动内容） | | 参与单位名称及 | 线上参与公司 2024 年度业绩说明会的全体投资者 | | 人员姓名 | | | 时间 | 2025 年 5 月 9 日 (周五) 下午 15:00~17:00 | | 地点 | 公司通过全景网"投资者关系互动平台"（https://ir.p5w.net） | | | 采用网络远程的方式召开业绩说明会 | | | 董事兼总裁：李天池 | | 上市公司接待人 | 独立董事：谢永涛 | | 员姓名 | 财务总监：杨秋平 | | | 董事会秘书：罗永君 | | | 公司就投资者在本次说明会中提出的问题进行了回复： | | | 1.高研发，没带来技术突破，二级市场跌跌不休，特种集成 | | | 板块如果不能有效回暖，未来还有期 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 78.00 [7][8]. Core Views - The report expresses optimism about the company's potential for performance reversal in the special integrated circuit sector, despite a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024 [1][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from a strong demand recovery in the military industry, which is anticipated to lead to an increase in orders and overall market demand [1][4]. Revenue and Profitability Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 55.11 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 27.26%, and a net profit of RMB 11.79 billion, down 53.43% year-on-year [1][2]. - The revenue breakdown for 2024 includes: - Special integrated circuits: RMB 25.77 billion, down 42.57% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 71.69% [2]. - Smart security chips: RMB 26.38 billion, down 7.61% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 44.16% [2]. - Quartz crystal frequency devices: RMB 2.24 billion, up 20.93% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 15.56% [2]. Research and Development Summary - The company increased its R&D expense ratio to 22.22% in 2024, up 3.43 percentage points year-on-year, with notable advancements in various product lines [3]. - Key developments include the successful market launch of radiation-resistant products for aerospace applications and the mass production of automotive security chip solutions [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation Summary - The profit forecast for the company has been adjusted downward due to ongoing price pressures in military products and uncertainties regarding the large-scale commercialization of new smart security chip products [4][19]. - Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 16.59 billion, RMB 21.02 billion, and RMB 25.94 billion, respectively, reflecting a downward revision of 21.43% and 25.84% for 2025 and 2026 compared to previous estimates [4][19]. - The company is assigned a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 40 times for 2025, with a target price of RMB 78.00, indicating a potential upside from the current market price [4][18].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.5 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 27.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.2 billion yuan, down 53.43% year-on-year [5] - The decline in revenue is primarily due to a decrease in special integrated circuit income, which fell by 42.57% year-on-year [5] - The company continues to invest heavily in R&D, with an expenditure of 1.29 billion yuan, representing 23.33% of revenue, which is an increase of 4.54 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company is expected to benefit from the acceleration of special informationization and the recovery of its main business, with anticipated revenue growth in the automotive chip sector [5] Financial Performance - The company achieved a net cash flow from operating activities of 1.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.07% year-on-year [5] - The net assets attributable to shareholders increased by 6.33% year-on-year to 12.4 billion yuan as of December 31, 2024 [5] - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 6.7 billion yuan, 8.3 billion yuan, and 10.5 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.6 billion yuan, 2.2 billion yuan, and 2.3 billion yuan [5][8] Market Position and Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from the growth in automotive electronics and the recovery of traditional consumer electronics [5] - The company has launched several new products, including the first commercial eSIM in China and automotive safety chip solutions, which are expected to contribute to future revenue growth [5] - The company maintains a leading position in FPGA and system-level chip products, which are anticipated to see improved performance in the current fiscal year [5]

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, the company aims to focus on core business development, maintain R&D investment, and enhance management efficiency to navigate challenges in a competitive market and the cyclical nature of the special integrated circuit industry [1][4]. Group 1: Business Development and Market Position - The company is seizing opportunities in the recovering global semiconductor industry, positioning itself as a leading comprehensive integrated circuit enterprise in China [2][3]. - The special integrated circuit business has improved quality assurance and production efficiency through optimization of quality systems, organizational structure, and supply chain management [2][5]. - The company has successfully launched radiation-resistant products for aerospace applications and achieved breakthroughs in key technologies such as high-current power modules and low-noise switch power designs [2][6]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 5.511 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.26% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.179 billion yuan, down 53.43% from the previous year [4]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was 1.467 billion yuan, a decline of 17.07% compared to the previous year [4]. - The company's total equity attributable to shareholders increased by 6.33% to 12.394 billion yuan, while the asset-liability ratio decreased by 6.63 percentage points to 28.44% [4]. Group 3: R&D and Innovation - The company invested 1.286 billion yuan in R&D in 2024, accounting for 23.33% of its revenue, and obtained 85 invention patents and 19 utility model patents [6][8]. - The company is focusing on domestic substitution and achieving breakthroughs in critical technologies in "bottleneck" areas while enhancing its position in international markets [6][7]. - The company is developing next-generation core devices in response to industry changes and demands, aiming to create new revenue growth points [3][8]. Group 4: Future Strategy - In 2025, the company plans to expand its special integrated circuit business by enhancing product categories, extending application areas, and increasing market share [7][8]. - The company will continue to innovate in security chip products and explore new industry applications while capitalizing on opportunities in the automotive electronics sector [7][8]. - The company aims to leverage AI technologies to enhance existing product lines and develop new intelligent product lines, thereby improving overall competitiveness and driving performance growth [8].