Core Viewpoint - Chile's Agricultural and Livestock Service (SAG) has suspended poultry imports from Argentina due to an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza detected at a breeding farm in Buenos Aires [1] Group 1: Import Suspension Details - The suspension is based on established international agreements aimed at protecting Chile's avian health status, which has been free of avian influenza since August 2023 [1] - Products produced before August 4, 2025, are allowed entry, while those produced on or after August 5, 2025, are prohibited [1] Group 2: Import Statistics - From July 2024 to August 2025, Chile is expected to import 7,648 tons of poultry meat from Argentina, accounting for 8% of the total import volume of 96,475 tons during the same period [1] - In terms of fresh poultry eggs, Chile imported 704 tons from Argentina, which represents 30% of the total import volume of 2,370 tons [1] Group 3: Alternative Suppliers - Brazil remains the primary supplier of poultry products to Chile, and despite a previous outbreak of avian influenza, the import ban on Brazilian products has been lifted following the restoration of their disease-free status [1]

Core Points - The underlying reason and strategic intent of the Trump administration's tariff war is to achieve economic rebalancing, which has been difficult due to conflicting policy goals within the U.S. [1] - The U.S. has experienced a long history of economic imbalance and attempts at rebalancing, with significant events such as the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic impacting these efforts [2] Industry Structure - Before 2008, the U.S. faced severe deindustrialization, with manufacturing jobs declining by 33% over ten years, reaching approximately 11.51 million by the end of 2009 [3] - From 2008 to 2019, the U.S. government focused on revitalizing manufacturing and high-tech industries, resulting in a rise in manufacturing employment to about 12.8 million by the end of 2019 [3] - The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted this recovery, leading to a drop in manufacturing jobs to 11.68 million in Q2 2020, with a slow recovery thereafter [3] Trade Sector - The U.S. has historically faced a trade deficit, with the current account deficit reaching approximately $816.6 billion in 2006, accounting for 5.91% of GDP [4] - The trade deficit improved somewhat from 2008 to 2019 due to various government policies aimed at curbing imports and promoting exports, but it has since widened again, with a projected current account deficit of $1.1336 trillion in 2024 [4] - The U.S. has a significant reliance on imports for labor-intensive and some capital-intensive products, which has hindered balanced economic growth [4] Savings and Investment Structure - Prior to 2008, the U.S. exhibited high consumption and low savings, with a savings-investment gap peaking during the financial crisis [5] - The U.S. savings rate rebounded to 20% by 2015 but has since declined to 17% by 2024, while the investment rate has increased, leading to a widening savings-investment gap of $1.29 trillion [5] - The U.S. external debt reached $27.6 trillion by the end of 2024, constituting 93% of GDP, indicating a reliance on international financing [5] Challenges in Achieving Economic Rebalancing - The U.S. faces inherent contradictions in its economic rebalancing policies, which have not fundamentally altered the comparative disadvantages of its manufacturing sector [6] - The strong dollar and the U.S.'s ability to purchase goods globally have perpetuated trade deficits, as the country can print dollars to meet domestic demand [7] - Excessive government spending has counteracted improvements in trade deficits that could have resulted from increased household savings [8] - The mismatch between demand expansion and supply chain recovery during the pandemic has exacerbated trade imbalances, leading to a significant increase in the goods trade deficit [9] Potential Policy Directions Post-Tariff War - The U.S. may continue to use tariffs as leverage in negotiations with China, potentially fluctuating tariff rates based on trade discussions [10] - There is a possibility that the U.S. will seek support from other countries for U.S. debt and may consider debt restructuring to alleviate fiscal pressures [11] - The U.S. might intervene in foreign exchange policies to seek a weaker dollar while also exploring the inclusion of cryptocurrencies in its reserves to bolster confidence in the dollar [11] - The U.S. is likely to implement differentiated tariffs and create trade blocs to counter China's influence, aligning with allied nations to reshape global supply chains [12]

Group 1 - Brazil is investigating new suspected cases of avian respiratory disease [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Food and Environmental Hygiene Department's Centre for Food Safety announced a ban on the import of poultry meat and products from a region in North Dakota, USA, due to an outbreak of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza, aimed at protecting public health in Hong Kong [1] Group 1 - The outbreak of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza was reported by the World Organisation for Animal Health [1] - The Centre for Food Safety acted promptly by instructing the industry to suspend imports from the affected area [1] - The ban includes all poultry products, such as poultry meat and eggs [1]

Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 59.715 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 0.64%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.989 billion yuan, down 1.26% [1] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 15.603 billion yuan, an increase of 13.46%, and a net profit of 1.185 billion yuan, up 63.27% [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.75 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of 52.08% [1] Revenue and Sales Performance - In 2024, the total external sales of meat products reached 3.18 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.67%, primarily due to declines in packaged meat and fresh pork products [2] - Q4 2024 saw a recovery in external sales of meat products, totaling 831,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.47% [2] - Revenue from packaged meat products and fresh pork in 2024 was 24.788 billion yuan and 26.930 billion yuan, respectively, with declines of 6.16% and increases of 1.12% year-on-year [2] Profitability and Margins - The company's gross profit margin for 2024 was 17.69%, an increase of 0.64 percentage points year-on-year, driven by improvements in the gross margins of packaged meat and poultry products [3] - The profit margin for the packaged meat segment increased to 26.81%, up 3.26 percentage points year-on-year, while the profit margin for fresh pork decreased to 1.62% [3] - The profit per ton for packaged meat products rose by 13.77% to 4,699 yuan, while fresh pork saw a decline of 32.61% to 324 yuan per ton [3] Future Outlook - The company projects net profits attributable to shareholders of 5.188 billion yuan, 5.458 billion yuan, and 5.688 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 3.98%, 5.21%, and 4.21% respectively [4] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for March 31 are expected to be 18, 17, and 16 times, with a market capitalization of 93.4 billion yuan [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 projected at 51.88 billion, 54.58 billion, and 56.88 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of +3.98%, +5.21%, and +4.21% [4] Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 597.15 billion (down 0.64%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 49.89 billion (down 1.26%), with a cash dividend of 0.75 per share [1] - The company reported a recovery in sales volume in Q4 2024, with total external sales of meat products reaching 83.12 million tons, an increase of 9.47% year-on-year [2] - The gross profit margin for the company was 17.69%, an increase of 0.64 percentage points year-on-year, driven by improvements in the gross profit margins of packaged meat and poultry products [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 156.03 billion (up 13.46%) and a net profit of 11.85 billion (up 63.27%) [1] - The total external sales volume of meat products for 2024 was 318 million tons, a decrease of 1.67% year-on-year, primarily due to declines in packaged meat and fresh pork products [2] - The company’s revenue from packaged meat products, fresh pork, and other products for 2024 was 247.88 billion, 269.30 billion, and 79.97 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of -6.16%, +1.12%, and +13.42% [2] Profitability - The profit margin for the packaged meat segment increased by 14% to 4699 yuan per ton, while the profit margin for fresh pork decreased by 32.61% to 324 yuan per ton [3] - The company’s net profit for 2024 was 49.89 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.26% [1] Growth Prospects - The company plans to expand its direct sales and distribution network, with direct sales revenue increasing by 6.11% to 143.81 billion and the number of distributors growing by 19.83% to 21,282 [2] - Future net profit projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 indicate a steady growth trajectory, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18, 17, and 16 [4]