Core Insights - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, anticipating a rebound in the meat and dairy cycles, benefiting industries related to dairy and beef cattle [1][4] - The monthly recommended stock portfolio includes leading companies in various segments, such as YouRan Agriculture, Modern Farming, and Muyuan Foods, indicating a focus on industry leaders poised for recovery [1][3] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is expected to experience a significant reversal, with a focus on beef and dairy cattle. The domestic beef production capacity is anticipated to decrease to levels seen during the 2019 pig cycle, with prices expected to rise until 2028 [14] - The report highlights that the domestic raw milk price has been in decline for nearly four years, leading to production capacity pressures. The "meat and milk ratio" has reached historical highs, which may accelerate the culling of dairy cows [14][36] - Recommended companies in the livestock sector include YouRan Agriculture and Modern Farming, which are expected to benefit from improving raw milk prices and the upward trend in beef prices [14][17] Swine Sector - The swine sector is characterized by a gradual recovery in prices, with the average price of live pigs at 12.67 yuan/kg, reflecting a 13% month-on-month increase [20] - The report emphasizes the importance of leading companies in the swine industry, such as Huazhong Holdings and Muyuan Foods, which are expected to see significant cash flow improvements and higher dividend returns due to their low-cost advantages [15][19] - The overall industry is projected to stabilize, with a focus on valuation recovery for leading firms as the market adjusts to supply and demand dynamics [20][21] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is witnessing a slight increase in supply, with expectations for demand recovery. The price of broiler chickens has shown a month-on-month increase of 9% [22] - The report notes that the structure of parent stock is changing, which may impact actual supply growth. However, demand is expected to benefit from domestic stimulus policies and macroeconomic improvements [22][28] - Key companies in the poultry sector include Lihua Food and Shengnong Development, which are positioned to maintain good profitability amid these changes [18][22] Pet Industry - The pet industry is identified as a promising consumer segment, with domestic brands rapidly gaining market share. The emotional consumption trend is expected to drive long-term growth in this sector [16][18] - Recommended companies include Guibao Pet, which is focusing on product upgrades and direct sales transformation to capture market opportunities [16][18] Feed and Grain Sector - The feed sector is benefiting from deeper industrialization in livestock farming, with leading companies expected to widen their competitive advantages through technology and service [1][3] - The report indicates that corn prices are at a historical low, with strong support expected from cost structures, while soybean meal prices are also at low valuations, awaiting a cyclical rebound [18][21]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月04日 农林牧渔 2026 年 1 月投资策略 优于大市 看好肉奶周期共振反转，奶牛及肉牛相关产业受益 月度重点推荐组合：优然牧业（牧业大周期受益龙头）、现代牧业（国内牧 业龙头企业）、牧原股份（生猪养殖龙头）、德康农牧（创新农户合作模式 的生猪养殖标的）、立华股份（低成本黄鸡与生猪养殖标的）。 各细分板块推荐逻辑：1）肉牛及原奶：牧业大周期反转预计在即，看好国 内肉奶景气共振上行，牧业公司业绩有望迎来高弹性修复。2）生猪：头部 企业现金流快速好转，并有望转型为红利标的，在全行业产能收缩的背景下， 龙头的成本优势有望明显提高，强者恒强。3）宠物：宠物作为新消费优质 赛道，长期景气受益人口趋势，且国内自主品牌正快速崛起，头部宠食标的 中期业绩增长确定性仍较强。4）饲料：畜禽养殖工业化加深，产业分工明 确，饲料龙头凭借技术和服务优势，有望进一步拉大竞争优势。5）禽：供 给波动幅度有限，行情有望随需求复苏，龙头企业凭借单位超额收益优势有 望实现更高现金流分红回报。 农产品价格跟踪：1）生猪：12 月末生猪 12.67 元/公斤，月环比上涨 13%， 7kg 仔猪价格约 231.67 ...

Core Viewpoint - The protest in Brussels reflects the desperation of European farmers facing multiple pressures, leading to a significant backlash against EU policies that are perceived to undermine their livelihoods [4][12]. Group 1: Causes of the Protest - The EU's trade policies, particularly the allowance of duty-free imports of low-cost agricultural products from Ukraine, have severely impacted local farmers, with Polish wheat prices dropping by 40% [4]. - The proposed free trade agreement with South American countries, which would allow low-cost beef, sugar, and soybeans to flood the European market, has made farmers feel betrayed by the EU [6]. - Rising production costs due to carbon taxes and fluctuating energy prices have increased the cost of farming, while the prices of agricultural products remain suppressed, leading to reduced farmer incomes [9]. - The EU's Green Deal, which imposes strict regulations on pesticide and fertilizer use, has further burdened farmers, who feel disadvantaged compared to competitors from regions without such restrictions [12]. Group 2: Nature of the Protest - Farmers expressed their discontent through extreme measures, including burning tires and blocking major roads in Brussels, while also throwing unsold produce at police and EU buildings [15]. - The protest highlighted deep divisions within the EU, with countries like France and Poland advocating for the protection of agriculture, while others prioritize industrial exports [18]. Group 3: EU Response - In response to the protests, the EU made concessions, including withdrawing a proposed regulation to reduce pesticide use and temporarily exempting farmers from land fallow requirements [21]. - The EU also postponed plans to sign a free trade agreement with South American countries following strong opposition from leaders in France and Italy [21]. Group 4: Implications - While the protest achieved tactical victories for farmers, it serves as a warning for the EU about the potential backlash when political agendas and free trade policies compromise the livelihoods of ordinary citizens [23].

26年来逾500万吨鲜活产品经拱北口岸供应澳门 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 拱北海关还推出供澳冰鲜水产品"三联三同"模式、供澳食用水生动物"检疫前推，合作监管"模式，联合 澳门市政署支持合规农产品高效通关，抢"鲜"上市。 今年1月份，拱北海关与澳门市政署签署合作备忘录，为内地进口的国外水果开辟供澳新通道，为澳门 街坊的佳节餐桌再添"世界味"。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：郭晋嘉 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 中新社珠海12月17日电 (邓媛雯 郭珊珊)今年是澳门回归祖国26周年。拱北海关17日对外公布，自1999 年12月澳门回归祖国以来，截至2025年11月，内地经拱北口岸共向澳门供应水果、蔬菜、禽肉、水产品 等鲜活产品逾500万吨。 17日6时，一辆白色冷藏车驶入拱北口岸东侧的供澳鲜活产品"绿色通道"，停靠在海关查验台。经过海 关关员的迅速查验，冷藏车再次启程，满车的新鲜食材5分钟后就能送抵澳门。 澳门回归祖国26年来，这条通 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector, particularly focusing on livestock and feed companies [7]. Core Insights - The USDA's December supply and demand report indicates a tightening supply-demand balance for corn, with prices expected to maintain a moderate upward trend [15][18]. - For soybeans, the report suggests a recovery in U.S. imports, which is likely to support price recovery [33][35]. - The beef market is projected to see a price increase in 2026, driven by reduced production and strong domestic demand [3][6]. - The dairy sector is expected to experience a price reversal due to a combination of reduced supply and increased demand for both meat and milk [4][6]. - The pork market is anticipated to face a decline in prices in the latter half of 2026, despite a positive outlook for the first half [6][7]. Summary by Sections Corn - The USDA report predicts a reduction in global corn production by 3.27 million tons, leading to a decrease in global ending stocks and a tightening supply-demand ratio [15][16]. - Domestic corn prices are currently at a historical low, with expectations for a gradual recovery supported by low trader inventories [18][19]. Soybeans - The global soybean ending stocks are expected to increase slightly, with a projected rise in U.S. imports and a positive outlook for domestic soybean meal prices [33][35]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring U.S.-China trade relations and South American weather conditions for future price movements [38]. Wheat - The global wheat supply remains ample, with an increase in production forecasts from major exporting countries, leading to a slight rise in the global ending stocks ratio [2][45]. - Domestic wheat prices are expected to stabilize, influenced by the overall supply situation and potential government storage interventions [48][52]. Beef - The USDA forecasts a decrease in U.S. beef production, with prices expected to rise due to strong domestic demand and reduced imports [3][6]. - The report anticipates a turning point in the domestic beef cycle by 2025, with prices likely to trend upwards [3][6]. Dairy - The report indicates a potential reversal in the dairy market, driven by reduced cow inventories and a tightening supply-demand balance [4][6]. - Domestic raw milk prices are expected to rise as a result of these factors [4][6]. Pork - The U.S. pork market is projected to see a decline in prices in the latter half of 2026, despite a positive outlook for the first half of the year [6][7]. - Domestic breeding sow inventories are stabilizing, which may help support industry profitability [6][7]. Poultry - The U.S. poultry market is expected to recover, with increased production and consumption anticipated as avian influenza impacts diminish [6][7]. - Domestic chicken supply is projected to stabilize, with a focus on internal demand recovery [6][7].

CPI同比涨幅扩大 国家统计局数据显示，11月份，居民消费持续恢复，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比略降0.1%，同比上 涨0.7%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%。受国内部分行业供需结构优化、国际大宗商品 价格传导等因素影响，工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.1%，同比下降2.2%。 二是新兴产业快速发展，带动相关行业价格同比上涨。随着我国新材料、具身智能等行业的快速发展和 绿色低碳转型的深入推进，相关行业需求增加，外存储设备及部件价格同比上涨13.9%，石墨及碳素制 11月份，CPI同比上涨0.7%，涨幅比上月扩大0.5个百分点，为2024年3月份以来最高。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟表示，CPI同比涨幅扩大，主要是食品价格由降转涨拉动。食品价 格由上月下降2.9%转为上涨0.2%，对CPI同比的影响由上月下拉0.54个百分点转为上拉0.04个百分点。 其中，鲜菜价格由上月下降7.3%转为上涨14.5%，为连续下降9个月后首次转涨。鲜果价格由上月下降 2.0%转为上涨0.7%，牛肉和羊肉价格涨幅均有扩大，猪肉和禽肉类价格降幅均有收窄。能源价格下降 3.4%，降幅比上月扩大1. ...

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In November, the CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, marking the highest growth since March 2024, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% [2][3] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by a shift in food prices from decline to increase, with fresh vegetable prices rising by 14.5% after nine consecutive months of decline [2][3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining above 1% for three consecutive months, indicating stable inflationary pressures [2][3] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month in November, marking the second consecutive month of growth, influenced by seasonal demand increases in certain industries [4] - Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 2.2%, with the decline slightly widening compared to the previous month, primarily due to high comparison bases from the previous year [4] - The increase in PPI was supported by rising prices in coal and gas sectors, while international oil price fluctuations led to a decrease in domestic oil and gas extraction prices [4] Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - The ongoing "anti-involution" measures are showing results, with price declines in key industries narrowing, indicating improved market competition [5] - Emerging industries are rapidly developing, contributing to price increases in related sectors, such as a 13.9% rise in external storage devices and components [6] - Future inflation is expected to remain low, providing room for growth-stimulating policies, with a gradual recovery in consumer prices anticipated [7][8]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In November, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.1% but a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, marking the highest growth since March 2024, with an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The increase in CPI year-on-year was primarily driven by a turnaround in food prices, which shifted from a decrease of 2.9% in the previous month to an increase of 0.2% [2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for three consecutive months, indicating effective domestic demand expansion policies [2] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month in November, marking the second consecutive month of growth [3] - The rise in PPI was attributed to seasonal increases in demand across certain domestic industries, particularly in coal and gas, with coal mining prices rising by 4.1% and gas production prices by 0.7% [3] - Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 2.2%, with the decline slightly widening by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, largely due to high comparison bases from the previous year [3] Group 3: Sector-Specific Price Changes - The rapid development of emerging industries has led to price increases in related sectors, with prices for external storage devices and components rising by 13.9% year-on-year [4] - Consumer demand has been effectively released, contributing to price recoveries in relevant industries, such as a 1.1% increase in the price of nutritional food manufacturing [4] - The prices of household appliances, including washing machines and air conditioners, saw a narrowing of year-on-year declines, indicating a positive trend in consumer goods pricing [4]

12月10日，国家统计局公布数据显示，11月份，居民消费持续恢复，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比略 降0.1%，同比上涨0.7%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%。受国内部分行业供需结构优 化、国际大宗商品价格传导等因素影响，工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.1%，同比下降 2.2%。 11月的物价数据呈现出"CPI明显上行，PPI初现暖意"的画卷。积极的变化在于CPI释放筑底信号，新动 能崭露头角。 CPI同比涨幅扩大，核心CPI上涨1.2% "CPI同比上涨0.7%，涨幅比上月扩大0.5个百分点，为2024年3月份以来最高，同比涨幅扩大主要是食品 价格由降转涨拉动。"国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟在解读11月份CPI数据时指出。 从细分项来看，食品价格由上月下降2.9%转为上涨0.2%，对CPI同比的影响由上月下拉0.54个百分点转 为上拉0.04个百分点。食品中，鲜菜价格由上月下降7.3%转为上涨14.5%，为连续下降9个月后首次转 涨，对CPI同比的上拉影响比上月增加约0.49个百分点；鲜果价格由上月下降2.0%转为上涨0.7%；牛肉 和羊肉价格分别上涨6.2%和3.7%，涨 ...

暂停受理俄罗斯注册编号为RU-054/PF13794企业自2025年12月8日（含）启运的 输华禽肉申报； 暂停受理巴基斯坦注册编号为02/AQD/ZA企业自2025年12月9日（含）起启运的输华牛肉产品进口申 报。 21家美国猪肉禽肉厂成功注册！ 海关总署暂停2家肉企输华 海关总署更新进口食品境外生产企业注册信息： 信息来源：海关总署、优顶特研究院 2025年12月8日，海关总署更新进口食品境外生产企业注册信息，新增美国21家肉类产品企业输华注 册。其中： 新增7家猪肉产品企业输华注册（注册编码为：1380，V39936，V3037，V3322，47993，V3761， 748）。 新增14家禽肉产品企业输华注册（ 注册编码为：P18881，V2546，V2768，V3761，P3474，P47993， P1380，P46585，V39936，P2894，P46255，P31690，V3037，V3322）。 ...