牧业大周期：行业大反转预计在即。1）牛肉与牛奶双品种有望反转：国内 肉牛产能去化级别或及 2019 年猪周期，2025 年已迎来价格拐点，后续 有望持续上涨至 2027 年。国内原奶价格已累计下跌近 4 年，持续亏损 带来产能出清压力，同时肉奶比价已至历史高位，后续有望推动奶牛淘 汰加快，实现"肉奶共振"。2）国内与国外两个市场协同涨价：海外牛 肉价格在主产区减产推动下，已进入上行周期，叠加进口调控，未来国 内进口牛肉预计量减价增。原奶进口方面，全球奶粉持续去库，景气重 回上行通道，目前进口大包粉已失去性价比，后续在国内产能收缩和进 口减量共同推动下，国内原奶供需格局预计改善，价格有望迎来修复。 猪禽养殖链：弱化周期，强化龙头。未来投资将从注重周期节奏转向公司管 理内核，从重视资本开支转向现金流创造。1）生猪：官方产能调控将加速 头部企业现金流快速好转，并有望转型为红利标的，在全行业产能收缩 的背景下，龙头的成本优势有望明显提高，强者恒强。2）禽养殖：供给 波动幅度有限，行情有望随需求复苏，龙头企业凭借单位超额收益优势 有望实现更高现金流分红回报。3）饲料：畜禽养殖工业化加深，产业分 工明确，饲料龙头凭借技术 ...

Group 1: Livestock Industry Outlook - The livestock industry is expected to experience a significant reversal, with both beef and milk prices projected to rebound, driven by a reduction in domestic beef production capacity and a historical high in the meat-milk price ratio, which may accelerate the culling of dairy cows [1][15][45] - Domestic beef prices have been on a downward trend, with a cumulative decline of nearly 20% since June 2023, reaching a low of 23.77 CNY/kg by February 2025, while the market price for beef has dropped to 51.38 CNY/kg, down 6.5% year-on-year [15][21] - The supply of beef is expected to tighten as the number of cull cows decreases, leading to a potential price increase for beef from 2025 to 2027, supported by both domestic and international market dynamics [21][45] Group 2: Swine and Poultry Farming - The swine industry is shifting focus from cyclical trends to company management and cash flow generation, with leading firms expected to benefit from improved cash flow due to capacity adjustments [2][9] - In poultry farming, supply fluctuations are anticipated to be limited, with leading companies likely to achieve higher cash flow and dividend returns as demand recovers [2][9] - The feed industry is expected to see increased industrialization and specialization, with leading feed companies leveraging technology and service advantages to enhance their competitive edge [2][9] Group 3: Pet Industry Insights - The pet industry is viewed as a promising new consumption sector, benefiting from demographic trends, with domestic brands rapidly emerging [2][9] - The performance of leading pet food companies is expected to remain strong, with significant growth potential similar to the rise of domestic brands in Japan [2][9] - Key recommendations include domestic brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., which are positioned well in the market [2][9] Group 4: Agricultural Commodities Overview - Agricultural commodities are currently in a bottoming phase, with expectations of upward movement in the medium to long term [3][9] - Corn supply is expected to increase marginally in the short term, while the long-term outlook remains strong due to solid bottom support [3][9] - Soybean imports are anticipated to rise, driven by cost recovery, while oilseed supply is expected to increase moderately, supported by policy measures [3][9]

Economic Overview - The GDP of Huicheng District reached 858.71 billion yuan in the first three quarters, showing a stable growth of 4.0% year-on-year at constant prices [1] - The primary industry added value was 28.60 billion yuan, growing by 2.4%; the secondary industry decreased by 2.1% to 221.57 billion yuan; the tertiary industry increased by 6.7% to 608.55 billion yuan [1] Agricultural Sector - The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery in Huicheng District was 44.10 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7% [2] - Forestry output value surged by 196.6%, while agricultural output increased by 5.5% [2] - Vegetable production reached 380,700 tons, up 4.5% year-on-year; fruit production increased by 13.4% to 54,500 tons [2] Industrial Performance - The total industrial output value for the first three quarters was 684.36 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.1% [3] - In September alone, the industrial output value was 94.44 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 16.7% year-on-year [3] - Manufacturing sector grew by 10.5%, while mining and electricity sectors saw declines [3] Service Sector Growth - The service sector's added value grew by 6.7%, with notable increases in various sub-sectors [4] - The wholesale and retail sector grew by 11.9%, and the information technology services sector increased by 12.3% [4] - Social retail sales totaled 609.96 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [4] Consumer Trends - Retail sales of food and household appliances saw significant growth, with food retail reaching 39.22 billion yuan, up 8.6% [5] - Online retail sales increased by 31.6%, accounting for 32.8% of total retail sales [5] Trade and Investment - The total import and export value reached 302.2 billion yuan, growing by 20.3% [6] - Exports totaled 185.4 billion yuan, with a growth of 19.6% [6] - Fixed asset investment saw a significant decline of 39.6%, with real estate investment dropping by 49.2% [6]

Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the livestock sector, particularly in beef and dairy farming, predicting a turning point in the domestic beef cycle by 2025, with prices expected to rise significantly [1][14] - The report recommends a selection of stocks in the livestock and feed sectors, highlighting companies like Yuran Agriculture, Muyuan Foods, and Haida Group as key investment opportunities [1][3] Livestock Sector - The report anticipates a reversal in the beef cycle, with domestic beef prices expected to rise due to a combination of domestic supply adjustments and international price increases [14] - The dairy market is projected to improve, driven by a rising meat-to-milk price ratio, which may accelerate the culling of dairy cows and enhance profitability for dairy farming companies [14] - Key recommended stocks in the livestock sector include Yuran Agriculture, Modern Farming, and China Shengmu [14][18] Swine Sector - The report highlights a recovery in the swine sector, with a focus on leading companies like DeKang Agriculture and Muyuan Foods, which are expected to benefit from valuation recovery as the market stabilizes [15][19] - The average price of live pigs was reported at 12.49 CNY/kg, reflecting a 6% month-on-month increase, while the price of piglets decreased by 9.18% [2][21] - The report notes that the industry is experiencing a rational approach to breeding, with a stable number of breeding sows maintained [21][22] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is expected to see increased demand, with prices for broiler chickens and chicks rising, indicating a recovery in consumption as the market enters a peak season [34][37] - The report mentions that the supply of yellow-feathered chickens remains low, which may benefit leading producers as domestic demand improves [40][41] - Recommended stocks in the poultry sector include Lihua Stock and Shengnong Development [19] Pet Industry - The pet industry is identified as a growth area, with domestic consumption expected to continue rising, particularly in pet food and healthcare [16] - Key recommended companies in the pet sector include Guibao Pet and Reap Bio [16][19] Feed Sector - The feed sector is projected to benefit from a recovery in aquaculture and livestock production, with Haida Group highlighted as a leading player in the feed market [1][19] - The report indicates that the price of corn, a key feed ingredient, is currently at a historical low, providing a strong cost support for feed production [21][22] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting that soybean meal prices are at historical lows, while corn prices have decreased by 5.37% month-on-month [2][21] - The overall agricultural sector is expected to experience a gradual recovery, with specific attention to the dynamics of supply and demand for key commodities [19][22]

Overall Situation - Zhaoqing City Market Supervision Administration conducted a supervision sampling of 267 batches of food across 14 categories, including edible agricultural products, catering food, tea and related products, alcoholic beverages, grain products, meat products, edible oils, beverages, aquatic products, vegetable products, soybean products, food additives, bee products, and special dietary foods [2]. - Out of the 267 batches, 252 were qualified, while 15 were found to be unqualified, indicating a qualification rate of approximately 94.4% [2]. Breakdown of Unqualified Products - Among the 172 batches of edible agricultural products, 9 were unqualified [2]. - For 14 batches of catering food, 3 were unqualified [2]. - In the tea and related products category, all 22 batches were qualified [2]. - The alcoholic beverages category had 3 batches, all of which were qualified [2]. - Grain products had 3 batches, all qualified [2]. - Meat products included 10 batches, with no unqualified samples [2]. - Edible oils and related products had 5 batches, all qualified [2]. - The beverage category had 2 batches, both qualified [2]. - Aquatic products included 11 batches, with no unqualified samples [2]. - Vegetable products had 8 batches, with 3 unqualified [2]. - Food additives had 3 batches, all qualified [2]. - Soybean products included 7 batches, all qualified [2]. - Bee products had 3 batches, all qualified [2]. - Special dietary foods included 5 batches, all qualified [2]. Handling of Unqualified Products - Zhaoqing City Market Supervision Administration has mandated relevant local market supervision departments to investigate and handle unqualified food products and their producers promptly [4]. - Companies are required to trace the distribution of unqualified products, recall them, and analyze the reasons for non-compliance to implement corrective actions [4]. - Businesses must take immediate measures such as removing unqualified food from shelves to control risks and face legal consequences [4].

Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in Q3 2025, achieving a revenue of 44.523 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.19%, and a net profit of 3.959 billion yuan, up 4.05%, indicating robust operational resilience [1][2] Financial Performance - The net profit for the first three quarters reached 3.959 billion yuan, with a core net profit of 3.815 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.05% and 3.78% respectively [2] - In Q3 alone, the net profit was 1.636 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 8.45% [2] - The weighted average return on equity for the first three quarters was 18.50%, up 0.51 percentage points from the previous year [3] Cost Management and Product Structure - The company has effectively managed costs and upgraded its product structure, with sales expenses increasing by 8.72% to 1.566 billion yuan, while management expenses slightly decreased by 1.23% to 0.954 billion yuan [3] - The management anticipates a continued decrease in raw material costs in Q4, while also planning to increase market support and promotional expenses [3] Sales Volume and Market Expansion - Total meat sales reached 2.4885 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.92%, with Q3 sales alone at 0.9232 million tons, up 9.97% [4] - Fresh pork sales grew by 13.4% to 1.087 million tons, while poultry sales surged by 18.4% to 0.285 million tons, both achieving historical highs [4] - Despite a 5.6% decline in processed meat sales to 1.03 million tons, the second and third quarters showed signs of recovery [4] New Channels and Product Development - New sales channels have shown significant growth, with new channel sales increasing by 34% in Q3 [5] - The company is expanding into e-commerce and instant retail, aiming to build a multi-tiered brand matrix [5] - New product launches, such as various types of sausages, have received positive market feedback, with plans to focus on high-end and cost-effective products [6] Future Strategy - The company has outlined a strategic direction focusing on industrialization, diversification, internationalization, and digitalization [6] - Plans include enhancing market innovation, upgrading fresh product networks, expanding new sales channels, and optimizing supply chain management [6]

Sales Performance - Packaged meat product sales reached 1.03 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.6% [3] - Fresh pork sales increased to 1.087 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 13.4% [3] - Poultry meat sales reached 285,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.4% [3] - Total meat sales amounted to 2.49 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, marking a record high for the period [3] Financial Overview - Total revenue for the first nine months was 44.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [27] - Total profit reached 5.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 1.3% [27] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [27] - Earnings per share stood at 1.14 yuan, reflecting a 4.1% year-on-year growth [27] Quarterly Insights - The first quarter faced significant operational pressure, while the second and third quarters showed improvement due to market reforms and digital empowerment [4] - In the third quarter, the average profit per ton of meat products reached a historical high of over 5,000 yuan, benefiting from reduced costs and increased sales of premium products [8] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to accelerate market innovation and enhance customer development, particularly in fresh products [6] - Continued focus on digital transformation across supply chain, sales, and production management to improve operational efficiency [7] - Emphasis on expanding new sales channels and promoting high-cost performance products to adapt to changing consumer demands [10] Industry Context - The global economic environment remains challenging, with trade tensions and uncertain tariff policies impacting the market [41] - Domestic economic stability is observed, but overall consumer demand in the fast-moving consumer goods sector is weak [41] - The pork market is characterized by ample supply and relatively low prices, leading to intensified competition [43] Future Outlook - The company aims to achieve significant year-on-year growth in sales and improve operational quality through strategic initiatives [69] - Plans to enhance production management in the pig and poultry sectors to further reduce costs and improve performance [70]

Group 1 - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector experienced a market-wide pullback, with the only agricultural ETF (159275) closing down by 0.7% [1] - Key stocks in the sector, including animal health, broiler farming, and agricultural product processing, saw significant declines, with Bio-Stock dropping by 4.06% and several others falling over 2% [3] - The overall trend in pig prices remains downward, with current prices for fat pigs nearing 11 yuan/kg and weaned piglets dropping to around 150 yuan/head, indicating a phase of comprehensive losses in the industry [3] Group 2 - The agricultural sector's valuation is currently at a relatively low level, suggesting a good time for investment, with the agricultural ETF's index price-to-book ratio at 2.57, positioned at the 30.08 percentile over the past decade [3] - Guosen Securities is optimistic about the reversal of the livestock cycle by 2025, highlighting the potential for domestic beef and raw milk markets to rise [4] - The industry is expected to undergo a quality improvement and efficiency enhancement trend, with outdated capacities gradually being eliminated, leading to an increase in market share for financially stable producers [4] Group 3 - The agricultural ETF (159275) tracks the CSI Agricultural Index, with major holdings including leading companies in the sector, and approximately 40% exposure to pig-related stocks [5] - The index covers a wide range of industries within the agricultural sector, providing a comprehensive opportunity to capture the recovery of the entire agricultural value chain [5] - The ETF is the first and only one tracking the CSI Agricultural Index, which was established on December 31, 2004, and published on December 12, 2016 [8]

Group 1 - The overall grain production is stable, with summer grain maintaining production and early rice increasing yield, laying a good foundation for a bumper harvest in the year [2] - The total summer grain production reached 299.48 billion jin, slightly down by 0.1% year-on-year, while early rice production increased to 57.03 billion jin, up by 1.2% [2] - The autumn grain planting area has increased, and the production conditions are generally favorable, despite some regions facing adverse weather [2] Group 2 - Livestock production is stable, with total meat production reaching 73.12 million tons, an increase of 3.8% year-on-year [3] - The number of pigs slaughtered increased to 52.992 million heads, up by 1.8%, with pork production at 4.368 million tons, also up by 3.0% [3] - Cattle and sheep production remains stable, with beef production increasing by 3.3% and milk production by 0.7%, while sheep production saw a decline [4] Group 3 - The agricultural product market is well-supplied, with producer prices down by 3.6% year-on-year [5] - Grain prices have generally decreased, with specific declines in wheat by 2.5% and corn by 5.3%, while fruit prices have seen a slight increase of 1.1% [5] - Livestock prices have shown an upward trend, particularly for live cattle and sheep, while pork prices have decreased by 6.9% [5]

Core Insights - The agricultural sector in China has shown a positive trend in the first three quarters of the year, with a year-on-year increase of 3.6% in the value added by agriculture [1] - The overall grain production is expected to achieve another bumper harvest this year, supported by stable policies and favorable conditions [2][3] Agricultural Production - The total summer grain and early rice production reached 178.25 million tons, an increase of 190,000 tons from the previous year [1] - Summer grain production faced slight challenges but remained stable, with a total output of 299.48 billion pounds, a minor decrease of 3.1 million pounds or 0.1% [2] - Early rice production increased by 6.8 million pounds, marking a growth of 1.2% [2] Livestock Production - Livestock production has shown steady growth, with a total meat output of 73.12 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [1][3] - The number of pigs slaughtered reached 529.92 million heads, an increase of 962,000 heads or 1.8% [3] - The production of pork, beef, and poultry meat has also increased, with pork production rising by 3% to 43.68 million tons [3][4] Market Conditions - The agricultural product market remains stable, with producer prices decreasing by 3.6% year-on-year [5] - Price trends show a widening decline, with a 4.5% drop in the third quarter [5][6] - Certain agricultural products, such as live cattle and sheep, have shown signs of price recovery, with live sheep prices turning positive in the third quarter [6] Future Outlook - The government aims to enhance food security, targeting a stable grain production of over 1.3 trillion pounds during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with expectations to exceed 1.4 trillion pounds in 2024 [6]