（原标题：智利暂停从阿根廷进口禽类产品） 智利《信使报》8月25日报道，智利农牧局（SAG）宣布暂停从阿根廷进口禽类产 品，原因是此前布宜诺斯艾利斯一家养殖场检测出高致病性禽流感（IAAP）疫情。智 利农牧局在声明中表示，此项措施依据为国际既定协议，旨在保护智利自2023年8月以 来维持的家禽无禽流感卫生状态。该机构明确允许生产日期截至2025年8月4日的产品 入境，但生产日期自2025年8月5日起的产品将禁止进入智利。根据农牧局数据，在 2024年7月至2025年8月期间，智利从阿根廷进口7648吨禽肉，占同期总进口量96475吨 的8%。在新鲜食用禽蛋方面，从阿根廷进口704吨，占进口总量2370吨的30%。巴西仍 是智利禽类产品的主要供应国，虽然巴西数月前也曾暴发禽流感疫情，但在恢复无疫 状态后，智利农牧局已解除对巴西相关产品的进口禁令。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [6] Core Insights - The agricultural sector is expected to experience upward trends in beef prices due to a reduction in U.S. beef production forecasts for 2026 [4] - The report highlights a tightening supply-demand balance for corn, with prices expected to maintain a moderate upward trend [2] - The soybean market is influenced by U.S. trade policies and weather conditions, with a positive long-term outlook [2] - Wheat supply remains ample, with prices expected to stabilize at lower levels [3] - Sugar prices are anticipated to fluctuate due to increased imports and oil price volatility [3] - Cotton prices are expected to remain weak until demand shows positive changes [3] - The dairy sector is projected to see a rebound in raw milk prices driven by a reduction in supply and increased demand [5] Summary by Sections Corn - The USDA report indicates a global corn production increase of 24.92 million tons (approximately +1.97%) for the 2025/26 season, with a slight increase in global ending stocks [17] - China's corn ending stocks are projected to decrease by 0.31 percentage points to 55.50% [19] - Domestic corn prices are currently at a historical low, with a strong support expected for future price recovery [20] Soybeans - The USDA report forecasts a reduction in global soybean production by 1.29 million tons for the 2025/26 season, with ending stocks decreasing by 1.17 million tons [32] - The soybean market is sensitive to U.S. trade policies and weather, with a strong price support expected in Q4 2025 [34] Wheat - The USDA report predicts a decrease in global wheat production by 1.65 million tons for the 2025/26 season, with a slight reduction in the ending stocks-to-use ratio [49] - Overall supply remains sufficient, with prices expected to stabilize [3] Sugar - The market anticipates a good harvest for the 2025/26 season, but prices may remain weak due to increased imports and fluctuating oil prices [3] Cotton - The USDA report indicates a reduction in global cotton production forecasts, with a stable supply-demand balance expected [3] Beef - The USDA has lowered its forecast for U.S. beef production in 2026, leading to an expected increase in beef prices [4] - The domestic beef market is showing resilience, with prices expected to trend upwards in 2025 [4] Dairy - The USDA forecasts an increase in U.S. milk production and consumption for 2026, with a slight increase in ending stocks [5] - Domestic raw milk prices are expected to rebound in the second half of 2025 due to supply reductions and increased demand [5] Pork - The USDA projects a slight increase in U.S. pork consumption in 2026, with domestic production expected to remain stable [8] Poultry - The U.S. poultry market is expected to recover, with increased consumption predicted for 2026 [8]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The pork market is experiencing an oversupply, leading to a continued decline in pork prices. The average price of external three yuan pigs is 14.13 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.09% [2][12] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes the need for quality improvement and efficiency enhancement in the pig industry, suggesting that outdated production capacity will gradually be eliminated [2][13] - The report highlights the potential benefits of genetically modified crops in increasing yield and self-sufficiency rates for key varieties, with specific companies recommended for investment [12] Summary by Sections Planting Industry - A meeting was held to discuss increasing crop yields in Northeast China, which is crucial for national food security. The region has seen improvements in planting density and technology, contributing to stable yield increases [1] - Companies such as Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development are expected to benefit from these developments, along with seed companies like Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [1][12] Pig Farming - The average price of pigs has shown a downward trend, with the average weight of slaughtered pigs decreasing for eight consecutive weeks. The number of breeding sows has also decreased slightly [2][12] - The report suggests focusing on companies with significant cost improvements and high future output elasticity, including DeKang Agriculture and Mu Yuan Co., Ltd. [13] Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2406.65 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.09% [27] - Wheat: The average price is 2440.86 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.08% [30] - Rice: The average price of japonica rice is 2912.00 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.14% [35] - Soybeans: The average price is 3926.32 yuan/ton, remaining stable week-on-week [40] - Cotton: The average price is 15410.00 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.02% [47] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.73 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.37% [53] - The average price of vitamin E is 68.00 yuan/kg, remaining stable week-on-week [62]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the implications of Trump's tariff policies on U.S.-China relations and the resulting economic pressures faced by the U.S. [1][3][6] - Trump's imposition of tariffs, including a staggering 145% on Chinese goods, has led to significant retaliatory measures from China, impacting U.S. exports, particularly in energy and agriculture [1][3][4] - The decline in U.S. exports to China, such as the drop from approximately $80 billion in oil purchases to zero, highlights the adverse effects of the tariff strategy on American economic interests [3][4] Group 2 - The agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable, with the U.S. Department of Agriculture announcing that China will suspend tariff exemptions on U.S. agricultural products, leading to increased tariffs on key exports like beef from 32.5% to 62% [4] - Approximately 18% of U.S. agricultural exports depend on the Chinese market, with over 30% reliance for products like soybeans and pork, indicating a critical risk for U.S. farmers and potential political ramifications for the Republican Party [4][6] - The upcoming third round of U.S.-China tariff negotiations emphasizes the need for a shift towards cooperative strategies rather than solely relying on tariffs as negotiation tools, which could foster a more stable economic environment [6][7]

Group 1: Trade War Dynamics - The trade conflict between the US and the EU is primarily driven by US tariffs targeting core EU interests, with initial tariffs set at 30% and demands for a baseline tariff of 15%, significantly higher than the previously agreed 10% [2][3] - The EU initially believed it had a solid agreement with the US, but the sudden announcement of the 15% tariff, which includes the automotive and pharmaceutical sectors, has caused significant alarm, particularly in Germany [3][5] - The EU has responded by imposing tariffs on $210 billion worth of US goods and is preparing to target an additional $720 billion in US products, including Boeing aircraft and automotive parts [5][6] Group 2: Economic Impact on Industries - The US tariffs are expected to severely impact the German automotive industry, which generates billions in revenue from the US market, with potential losses amounting to tens of billions of euros annually [3][8] - The pharmaceutical sector faces retaliatory tariffs of up to 100%, with 90% of the EU's generic drug supply relying on the US [8] - The trade war has led to significant supply chain disruptions, with reports of a 49% backlog of ships at Hamburg port and rising prices for consumer goods in both the US and EU [13] Group 3: Internal EU Divisions - The trade conflict has exacerbated divisions within the EU, with Germany favoring reconciliation with the US while France advocates for a strong counter-response [9] - Eastern European countries are hesitant to take sides, fearing repercussions on energy supplies and tourism from the US [9] Group 4: Strategic Shifts - In response to the trade war, the EU is looking towards China for cooperation in rare earth elements and renewable energy, while simultaneously pressuring China on market access and overcapacity issues [12] - The EU's strategy includes leveraging its relationship with China to counterbalance US pressures, indicating a complex geopolitical maneuvering [12] Group 5: Upcoming Challenges - With the deadline for the new tariffs approaching, tensions are escalating, and the EU is preparing for a significant economic confrontation that could have global implications [16]

Group 1 - The EU has drafted two rounds of retaliatory tariffs and is evaluating a series of measures, including the activation of the "anti-coercion tool" [1] - The US has threatened to impose "reciprocal tariffs" on trade partners, with a deadline approaching on August 1, leading to a stalemate in US-EU negotiations [1][3] - The US is currently imposing a 25% tariff on imported cars from the EU and a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum [1] Group 2 - German Chancellor Merz expressed concerns about the trade negotiations, indicating that the US is hesitant to lower industry tariffs [3] - The German Finance Minister emphasized the need to resolve global trade conflicts but insisted that agreements should not be made at any cost [3] - The German central bank president warned that tariff uncertainties are causing significant damage to the global economy [3] Group 3 - The EU is prepared to implement retaliatory measures if the US maintains its proposed tariff rates of 15%-20% [4] - The EU plans to impose tariffs on $21 billion worth of US imports starting August 6, with a second round targeting $72 billion in US goods if negotiations fail [4][5] - The EU Commission stated that the current US tariff policy affects €380 billion of EU exports, accounting for 70% of EU exports to the US [5] Group 4 - Warnings have been issued that proposed US tariffs could severely hinder Germany's economic recovery, with a potential recession in 2025 [6] - Analysts predict that a 30% tariff on EU exports could push the Eurozone economy into recession by late 2025, with significant growth reductions expected [6][7] - Deutsche Bank's analysis suggests that the effective tariff rate could range from 12%-17%, significantly higher than the approximately 1% level at the beginning of the year [6] Group 5 - Despite the trade tensions, European stock markets are performing well, with major indices near historical highs [7] - The CAC 40 index in France has risen by 5.8% year-to-date, while the DAX index in Germany has increased by 21.3% [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The 'year-on-year growth' of the current data has limited practical significance, and the market should focus on the relative strength between the current supply increase and the increase already reflected in the futures market [7]. - The current pig price is in the second half of the small cycle of passive capacity reduction due to diseases, and active/passive capacity reduction has not yet started [10]. - The most likely way to reduce capacity this year is passive capacity reduction driven by diseases, but large - cycle market trends still await active capacity reduction driven by low prices [12]. - The main trading logic of live - hog futures this year is the bearish logic of continuous supply recovery. After the bearish expectations are basically fulfilled, it trades the basis repair logic under different drivers [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 'Year - on - Year Growth' Effective Significance Is Insufficient - Due to capacity adjustments in 2023 - 2024, the year - on - year growth in 2025 supply was expected and already reflected in the futures market. Comparing 2025 data with 2023 shows that although the number of live - hogs in the first quarter of 2025 was higher than in 2024 but lower than in 2023, the increase in pork output was due to higher slaughter weights [7][8]. - Comparing the first half of 2025 with the same period in 2024 and 2023, the decline in the number of live - hog inventories in the second quarter of 2025 narrowed compared to 2023, and the year - on - year growth rate of live - hog slaughter in the first half of the year increased compared to the first quarter, indicating a continuous recovery in inventory. However, the contribution of weight to pork output in the second quarter weakened compared to the first quarter, and overall supply pressure still exists [8][9]. 3.2 Pig Capacity Cycle Issues and Thoughts 3.2.1 Current Stage of the Pig Capacity Cycle - As of the end of the second quarter, the number of breeding sows increased quarter - on - quarter. The current pig price is in the second half of the small cycle of passive capacity reduction due to diseases, and active/passive capacity reduction has not yet started [10]. 3.2.2 How to Achieve Capacity Reduction - There are three ways to reduce capacity: active capacity reduction driven by low prices (currently ineffective as pigs and piglets are profitable); passive capacity reduction caused by diseases (need to pay attention to winter disease prevention at the end of the year); and forced capacity reduction driven by environmental protection policies (the most likely way currently, which will promote large - scale development) [11]. 3.2.3 Main Trading Logic of Live - Hog Futures - The main trading logic this year is the bearish logic of continuous supply recovery. After the bearish expectations are fulfilled, it trades the basis repair logic. In the long - term, maintain a short - selling strategy unless the number of newborn piglets decreases; in the medium - term, it may operate in a wide range around the expected support and pressure of spot pig prices; in the short - term, it is trading the repair of the futures discount driven by the weight - reduction expectation [13].

Group 1: Overall Meat Production - In the first half of the year, the total meat production in China reached 48.43 million tons, an increase of 1.31 million tons, or 2.8% year-on-year [1] - Pork production was 30.20 million tons, up by 390,000 tons, or 1.3% year-on-year [1] - Beef production was 3.42 million tons, an increase of 150,000 tons, or 4.5% year-on-year [1] - Mutton production decreased to 2.10 million tons, down by 100,000 tons, or 4.6% year-on-year [1] - Poultry meat production reached 12.70 million tons, an increase of 880,000 tons, or 7.4% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Swine Production - The number of pigs slaughtered in the first half of the year was 366.19 million, an increase of 2.24 million, or 0.6% year-on-year, marking two consecutive quarters of growth [1] - By the end of the second quarter, the total pig stock was 42.447 million, an increase of 9.13 million, or 2.2% year-on-year [1] - The breeding sow stock was 4.043 million, up by 60,000, or 0.1% year-on-year, currently at 103.7% of the normal holding level [1] Group 3: Cattle and Sheep Production - Cattle production remained stable, with 22.03 million beef cattle slaughtered, an increase of 630,000, or 2.9% year-on-year [1] - Milk production was 1.864 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons, or 0.5% year-on-year [1] - Sheep production saw a decline, with 132.80 million sheep slaughtered, down by 8.04 million, or 5.7% year-on-year [1] - By the end of the second quarter, the total cattle stock was 99.92 million, a decrease of 2.1% year-on-year, while the sheep stock was 30.083 million, down by 6.2% year-on-year [1] Group 4: Poultry Production - Poultry production experienced rapid growth, with 8.14 billion poultry slaughtered, an increase of 530 million, or 7.0% year-on-year [2] - Egg production reached 1.729 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons, or 1.5% year-on-year [2] - By the end of the second quarter, the total poultry stock was 6.33 billion, an increase of 0.2% year-on-year [2]

Group 1 - The national summer grain production is stable, with a total yield of 2994.8 billion jin, a decrease of 3.1 billion jin or 0.1% compared to the previous year, maintaining overall stability [2] - The summer grain planting area is approximately 3.99 million acres, a decrease of 520,000 acres or 0.1% from the previous year, with 20 out of 25 provinces increasing their planting area [2] - The summer grain yield per acre is 375.6 kg, an increase of 0.1 kg from the previous year, remaining stable overall [2] Group 2 - The livestock production is generally stable, with a total meat output of 48.43 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [3] - Pork production is 30.2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, while beef production is 3.42 million tons, up 4.5% [3] - Poultry production has seen significant growth, with a total of 8.14 billion birds processed, a year-on-year increase of 7.0% [3] Group 3 - The overall price level of agricultural producers has decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, with a decline of 1.6% in Q1 and 1.1% in Q2, indicating a narrowing decline [4] - Corn prices have increased by 1.5% month-on-month, marking five consecutive months of growth, while prices for rice and soybeans have also seen slight increases [4] - Prices for livestock such as pigs, cattle, and sheep have slightly decreased, while vegetable prices have shown mixed trends and aquatic product prices have generally risen [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture announced that countries such as Peru and Jordan have lifted restrictions on imports of Brazilian poultry meat [1] Group 1 - The lifting of import restrictions by Peru and Jordan is expected to enhance Brazil's poultry export opportunities [1] - This development may positively impact Brazil's agricultural sector, particularly the poultry industry, by increasing market access [1]