证券研究报告 | 2026年02月23日 2026年02月24日 美国农业部（USDA）月度供需报告数据分析专题 优于大市 美国 2026 年牛价景气预计维持，基于南美丰产再上调全球大豆期末库存 种植链农产品：底部盘整，等待上行。 1）玉米：全球产量预估环比调增，供需格局维持宽松。USDA2 月供需报告 预计 25/26 产季全球期末库销比环比调减 0.17pcts，中国期末库销比未 作调整。目前国内玉米价格已处于历史周期底部位置，中长期供需平衡 趋于收紧，后续预计价格底部支撑较强。 2）大豆：价格处于历史低位，静待周期底部反转。USDA2 月供需报告预计 25/26 产季全球期末库销比环比调增 0.15pcts 至 29.55%。近期国内豆 粕价格表现震荡企稳，短期，进口成本对大豆及豆粕现货价格仍有较好 支撑，中长期，2026 年 3 月后巴西大豆将陆续上量，关注后续南美天气 扰动、贸易与生物燃料政策的潜在催化。 3）小麦：国内小麦供应充足，预计后续底部震荡。USDA2 月供需报告预计 全球供给维持充裕，最终25/26 产季全球期末库销比环比调减 0.10pcts。 中国小麦 25/26 年度期末库销比未作 ...

Core Viewpoint - China remains the second largest market for Belarusian agricultural and food products, accounting for 4.5% of Belarus's total agricultural exports, with agricultural products making up 27% of Belarus's total exports to China [1] Group 1: Market Position and Export Strategy - Belarus aims to increase agricultural and food product exports to China, expanding existing product categories and exploring new potential items to diversify export structure [1] - The country is actively working on certification for exports of flour, grains, bran, and cereals to China, which will help tap into new consumer demand areas [1] Group 2: Growth Potential in Specific Product Categories - With the continuous growth in meat consumption in China, the prospects for Belarusian beef and poultry exports to China are promising [1] - The Chinese dairy market, being the second largest globally, presents significant opportunities for Belarus to enhance foreign exchange income and export potential [1]

据摩洛哥Barlamane网站2月6日报道，摩洛哥禽肉生产商协会（APV）报告称，受持续恶劣天气及港口 基础设施处理能力受限的双重影响，大批装载玉米、豆粕等物资的货船在港口滞留，无法及时卸载，导 致国内多家饲料厂原材料短缺，部分工厂被迫减产。 为缓解上述问题，摩洛哥已计划增加粮食进口，2025-2026年度预计采购730万吨小麦和90万吨大麦。然 而，业内人士指出，在港口运营恢复正常之前，这些采购计划难以落地。行业组织正紧急呼吁优先安排 饲料原料的卸载，并建立战略储备以应对未来风险。 由于饲料供应短缺，养殖端的生产成本大幅飙升。摩洛哥家禽行业联合会（FISA）警告称，当前的禽 肉和鸡蛋的市场价格难以覆盖飞涨的成本，成百上千的中小养殖户正处于破产边缘。 ...

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) - In January, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, reflecting a decrease of 0.6 percentage points compared to December [1] - The decline in CPI is attributed to the Spring Festival timing and a significant drop in energy prices, which decreased by 5.0%, impacting CPI by approximately 0.34 percentage points [3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, marking the highest increase in six months, indicating a steady recovery in consumer demand [3] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) - The PPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month in January, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase, with an expansion of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [5] - Factors contributing to the PPI increase include the ongoing construction of a unified national market and rising demand in certain industries [5] - Prices in sectors such as photovoltaic, battery, cement, and steel have shown positive improvements due to the "anti-involution" policies implemented last year [5] Group 3: Industry-Specific Price Changes - In January, prices for cement manufacturing and lithium-ion battery manufacturing increased by 0.1%, continuing a four-month upward trend [5] - The price of photovoltaic equipment and components shifted from a 0.2% decrease to a 1.9% increase, while basic chemical raw materials saw a 0.7% increase [5] - The prices of non-ferrous metal mining and smelting industries rose significantly, with silver smelting prices increasing by 38.2% and copper smelting by 8.4% [6] Group 4: Future Price Trends - The National Bureau of Statistics indicates that favorable factors for moderate price recovery are accumulating, supported by policies aimed at boosting consumption and stabilizing market expectations [6] - The implementation of coordinated fiscal and financial policies is expected to gradually expand consumer demand, providing a foundation for stable price operations [6] - Emphasis on industry self-regulation and capacity management is anticipated to further enhance price recovery in key sectors [6]

Core Insights - China's meat production is projected to exceed 100 million tons in 2025, marking a significant milestone in the country's agricultural development [1] - The total meat consumption in China accounts for nearly one-third of the global total, reflecting the country's substantial demand and production capabilities [1] Group 1: Pork Industry - Pork constitutes 59.38 million tons of the total meat production, representing nearly 60% of the overall output [4] - Technological advancements have significantly improved the efficiency and controllability of pig farming, with companies like Muyuan Foods utilizing over 1.9 million smart devices to enhance production efficiency by over 35% [4][6] - The breeding system has been modernized, with over 95% of pork produced from three main breeds, supported by a comprehensive breeding system [6] Group 2: Beef Industry - Beef production has increased from approximately 6.13 million tons in 2013 to 7.53 million tons in 2023, with an annual growth rate of about 2.1% [10] - Despite domestic production growth, there remains a significant supply-demand gap, leading to a 73% increase in beef imports from 2019 to 2024 [10][12] - The Chinese government has initiated trade relief investigations to stabilize the domestic beef market, implementing measures to protect local producers while ensuring market supply [12] Group 3: Sheep and Poultry Industries - Sheep meat production is stable, with an output of 5.18 million tons in 2024, contributing to dietary diversity and farmer income [10] - Poultry meat production is projected to reach 28.37 million tons in 2025, with a 6.7% year-on-year increase, playing a crucial role in stabilizing overall meat prices [14] - The poultry industry benefits from high efficiency and continuous improvements in breeding and disease control, with a 90% share of intensive farming practices [15] Group 4: Animal Disease Control - The stability of the meat industry is underpinned by a robust animal disease prevention system, which has effectively controlled major animal disease outbreaks [22] - The government has implemented a comprehensive regulatory framework to enhance disease monitoring and response capabilities, achieving a high compliance rate in mandatory vaccinations [19][21] - The focus on sustainable practices has led to significant reductions in feed usage and antibiotic application, contributing to the green development of the livestock sector [22]

2025年，我国猪牛羊禽肉产量首次突破1亿吨大关，达到10072万吨，同比增长4.2%；大豆产量连续4年稳定在2000万吨以上，2025年达2091万吨，增长 1.3%。如上数据来自央视新闻2月4日的新闻报道。 而据我国食品行业公布的数据显示，2025年我国肉类进口609万吨、出口约100万吨，这样算下来去年我国的肉类保有量在1.06亿吨左右。而根据近几年每年 的世界肉产量来计算，去年全球的肉类产量大致为3.4亿吨，算下来我国肉类消费量占全球1/3左右，或者说我们吃了全球30%的肉类。 这些核心数据均来自国务院新闻办公室发布会通报、国家统计局公布的2025年国民经济运行情况，以及全国畜牧总站、行业分析报告等权威渠道，真实反映 了我国肉类产业供需格局与全球地位。 提起1亿吨肉类，很多人可能没概念——要是把这些肉都做成汉堡，能绕地球好几圈；分给14亿人，每人每年能分到近140斤，平均每天能啃下三两肉，妥妥 的"吃肉自由"进阶版。但这1亿吨可不是"一刀切"的单一品类，里面藏着清晰的"肉江湖格局"。 占比最高的当属"国民肉"猪肉，2025年产量达5938万吨，同比增长4.1%，几乎占了肉类总产量的六成。这背后是719 ...

Core Insights - The EU feed price volatility is expected to sharply increase by the end of 2024 but stabilize throughout 2025, leading to improved profitability in the poultry sector [1] - Strong demand and ongoing disease pressures are tightening supply, resulting in a significant rise in poultry prices in 2025 [1] - The EU remains the world's third-largest poultry exporter, with increased export revenues driven by higher prices, particularly to regions in Africa, the Middle East, and Switzerland [1] - Poultry imports into the EU are projected to rise significantly in 2025, mainly due to increased imports from Brazil, Thailand, and China, despite a decline in imports from Ukraine [1] - The overall outlook for the EU poultry market remains optimistic, supported by strong consumer demand, although structural risks persist, including market volatility related to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and ongoing trade uncertainties [1] Group 1 - Ireland's poultry slaughter volume is expected to grow by 8% in 2025, reaching 12.2 million birds [2] - Primary poultry export revenue from Ireland is projected to increase by 18% year-on-year, reaching €163 million, with the UK remaining the main trading partner, accounting for over 60% of total exports [2] - The value-added poultry export revenue is expected to grow by 17%, reaching €230 million, with the UK continuing to be the primary market [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][4]. Core Views - The report anticipates a reversal in the livestock cycle, particularly benefiting Hong Kong dairy farming stocks [1]. - The monthly recommended stock portfolio includes leading companies in various segments: Yuran Agriculture, Modern Farming, Muyuan Foods, Dekang Agriculture, and Lihua Co., among others [1][3]. - The report highlights the expected upward trend in domestic beef and milk prices, driven by a recovery in the livestock cycle and improved cash flow for leading companies [1][14]. Summary by Sections Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is expected to experience a significant turnaround, with recommendations for Yuran Agriculture and Modern Farming as key beneficiaries [1][14]. - The report notes that domestic beef production capacity is decreasing, which may lead to price increases through 2028 [14]. - The improvement in raw milk prices is anticipated to benefit dairy farming companies, with a projected profit increase for Yuran Agriculture and Modern Farming [17]. Swine Sector - The swine sector is highlighted for its potential recovery, with leading companies like Huazhong, Dekang Agriculture, and Muyuan Foods recommended for investment [1][14]. - The report indicates that the industry is moving towards a more stable price center, supported by a reduction in production capacity and improved cash flow for leading firms [15][20]. Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is expected to see a recovery in demand, with recommendations for Lihua Co. and Shengnong Development [1][18]. - The report notes that the supply of white feather chickens is increasing, but demand is expected to improve, leading to potential price recovery [22][24]. Pet Sector - The pet food market is identified as a growing segment, with a focus on domestic brands like Guibao Pet [1][16]. - The report emphasizes the long-term growth potential of the pet sector, driven by rising consumer sentiment and market expansion [16]. Feed Sector - The feed sector is expected to benefit from deeper industrialization in livestock farming, with leading companies like Haida Group recommended [1][18]. - The report notes that feed prices are at historical lows, providing a strong support level for future price recovery [18].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a favorable outlook for the livestock sector, particularly dairy farming, anticipating a significant cyclical reversal in the industry [1][12] - The recommended stocks include leading companies in various segments such as dairy, pork, poultry, and pet food, indicating a diversified investment strategy [1][3] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is expected to experience a cyclical reversal, with both beef and milk prices projected to rise, benefiting companies like Yuran Agriculture and Modern Farming [14][17] - The domestic beef market is anticipated to improve due to reduced production capacity and favorable pricing dynamics, with beef prices currently at 61.88 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.59% [29] - The report highlights the potential for significant earnings recovery for dairy farming companies as milk prices are expected to rebound, driven by improved market conditions [14][17] Pork Sector - The pork sector is witnessing a stabilization in prices, with January 2026 pork prices at 12.16 yuan/kg, down 4% month-on-month, while piglet prices have surged by 57.86% [20][21] - Leading companies in the pork industry, such as Muyuan Foods and Huazhong Holdings, are expected to benefit from improved cash flows and dividend returns as the market stabilizes [15][19] - The report notes that the industry is undergoing a rationalization process, with a focus on reducing production capacity and enhancing profitability for leading firms [20][21] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is experiencing a slight increase in supply, with broiler prices showing a month-on-month increase of 2.94% to 7.70 yuan/kg, indicating a potential recovery in demand [22][23] - The report suggests that the white-feathered chicken industry is poised for price recovery as domestic demand stabilizes, supported by seasonal consumption trends [22][24] - The overall outlook for poultry remains positive, with expectations of improved profitability driven by demand recovery and supply adjustments [22][24] Pet Food Sector - The pet food market is identified as a high-growth area, with domestic brands gaining market share and expected to benefit from rising consumer sentiment [16][18] - The report highlights the strong performance of leading pet food companies, which are focusing on product upgrades and direct sales strategies to capture market opportunities [16][18] - The pet food export volume has increased by 12.99% month-on-month, indicating robust demand in international markets [16][18] Feed Sector - The feed industry is expected to benefit from the deepening industrialization of livestock farming, with leading companies leveraging technological and service advantages to enhance competitive positioning [1][3] - The report notes that feed prices are at historical lows, providing a supportive cost structure for livestock producers [20][21] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, indicating that soybean meal prices are at historical lows, while corn prices have shown a slight increase to 2333 yuan/ton [2][21] - The overall agricultural market is characterized by a focus on supply-demand dynamics, with expectations of tightening supply for key commodities like soybeans and corn [20][21]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a favorable outlook for the livestock sector, particularly dairy farming, anticipating a significant cyclical reversal benefiting Hong Kong-listed dairy farming companies [1][12] - The investment strategy highlights a recommended monthly portfolio including leading companies in various segments such as dairy, pig farming, and pet food [1][3] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is expected to experience a cyclical reversal, with both beef and milk prices projected to rise, driven by a reduction in domestic beef production and a historical low in milk prices [14][29] - Key recommendations include Yuran Dairy and Modern Farming, which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated price recovery in raw milk and beef [14][17] Pig Farming Sector - The pig farming sector is witnessing a stabilization in prices, with a notable increase in piglet prices, indicating a potential recovery in profitability for leading companies [20][21] - Recommended companies in this sector include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and Huazhong Holdings, which are expected to benefit from improved cash flow and dividend returns [3][15] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is seeing a slight increase in supply, with expectations of demand recovery supporting price stability, particularly for broiler chickens [22][24] - Leading companies such as Lihua Agricultural and Shengnong Development are highlighted for their competitive advantages in cost management and market positioning [18][19] Pet Food Sector - The pet food market is identified as a high-growth area, benefiting from rising consumer sentiment and the emergence of domestic brands [16][18] - Companies like Guibao Pet Food are recommended for their strong growth potential in this segment [3][16] Feed Sector - The feed industry is expected to deepen its industrialization, with leading companies leveraging technological and service advantages to enhance competitive positioning [1][3] - The report notes that feed prices are at historical lows, providing a supportive cost structure for producers [20][21] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting fluctuations in pork, chicken, and feed prices, with implications for overall market dynamics [2][21] - The analysis indicates that soybean meal prices are at historical lows, while corn prices are stabilizing, suggesting a tightening supply-demand balance in the medium term [20][21]