回顾2025年，中国经济的底色没有改变，一直在延续修复式增长的状态。从短期运行看，2025 年前三 季度GDP累计同比增长 5.2%，尽管四季度面临高基数和外部冲击压力，但在政策加力支持下，全年将 实现 5%左右的增长目标。总体而言，2025 年宏观政策取向和经济运行基本符合此前预期，但通胀水平 明显低于预期。 展望2026年，作为"十五五"开局之年，内需扩张、政策持续宽松以及物价回升将共同支撑经济增长，预 计实际GDP增速仍可维持在5%左右。12 月 10 日至 11 日召开的中央经济工作会议分析了当前我国经济 运行面临的形势，并对2026年经济工作作出全面部署。会议指出，我国经济长期向好的基本趋势和支撑 条件并未改变；2026年要着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合 理增长，保持社会大局稳定，实现"十五五"良好开局。 岁末年初，对于2026年，虽然宏观经济仍将维持修复增长的状态，但我们更加强调经济和政策层面的一 些新变化。那么，这种变化表现在什么方面呢？ 第一，名义经济增长明显改善。 从宏观基本面判断，虽然经济仍将继续延续修复增长的格局，但由于通胀回升，名义GDP增长将明显 ...

Group 1: Global Narrative Shifts - The "narrative inflection points" driving global capital reallocation include changes in overseas economies, AI advancements reshaping US-China dynamics, and a decrease in China's economic tail risks[4]. - The narrative power is expected to persist into 2026, with global monetary policies remaining accommodative and fiscal expansion opportunities greater in non-US countries than in the US[4]. - The "narrative inflection points" encompass three layers: the end of the "American exceptionalism," Europe's awakening, and the decline of tail risks in the Chinese economy[4]. Group 2: Economic Rebalancing in China - The main theme for China's macroeconomic strategy in 2026 is transitioning from capital reallocation to economic rebalancing, as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" draft[4]. - Key shifts in ideology during the "14th Five-Year" period include prioritizing demand-side policies over supply-side policies, emphasizing consumption over investment, and focusing on "investment in people" alongside "investment in goods"[4]. - Fiscal policy is expected to enter a "rigid expansion" phase, maintaining a budget deficit ratio of 4%, with slight increases in special government bonds and local government bonds[4]. Group 3: Economic Growth Projections - The GDP target for 2026 is projected to remain around 5%, with an expected actual completion of 4.9%, indicating a flat "U-shaped" growth trajectory[4]. - Consumer subsidy policies are anticipated to increase by 100-200 billion yuan on top of the 300 billion yuan allocated in 2025 to support service consumption[4]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise moderately to 0.4%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to decline by 0.9%[4]. Group 4: Industry Opportunities and Risks - From a macro perspective, technology remains a primary investment focus, but consumer investment value is also expected to emerge[5]. - Potential risks for 2026 include the ongoing US-China relationship dynamics, uncertainties in the European economy, and pressures in the domestic real estate market[5].

Core Insights - The Southern Finance Forum 2025 emphasized the theme of "The Power of Consensus - Innovation Surge, China's Asset Revaluation" and gathered leading economists to discuss the economic outlook and capital market prospects for 2026 [1][2] Economic Outlook - Experts agree that 2026 will be a key year for structural adjustment and rebalancing in China's economy, with GDP expected to grow by 5% in 2025, driven by strong performance in exports and new sectors [2][3] - The focus will shift from external demand to internal consumption, with a significant emphasis on enhancing the consumption rate as a new growth point [2][3] - The economic recovery is predicted to show a "front low, back high" trend, with weaker demand in the first half of 2026 but a rebound in investment in the second half [2][3] A-Share Market Revaluation - Since the implementation of the "9·24" policy, the A-share market has stabilized, with discussions centered on whether the logic of value revaluation will continue [4][5] - Key conditions for A-shares to enter a "second phase" of revaluation include reasonable valuation levels and a potential recovery in industrial enterprise profits if PPI improves [4][5] - The market evolution is expected to unfold in three stages: bond market yield decline, a surge in technology growth stocks, and a recovery in manufacturing profits driven by policy changes [4][5] Technological and Structural Changes - The consensus highlights that internal demand will become the main engine of economic growth, with technological innovation being crucial for both the real economy and capital market narratives [3][6] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for technology to be rooted in the industrial context to avoid becoming a mere capital bubble [8] Global Economic Context - The global economic landscape is expected to undergo significant adjustments, with potential for mild inflation and structural reforms in China [3][6] - Concerns about the AI bubble in the US market are noted, with experts suggesting that while risks are manageable, the impact on A-shares remains a point of interest [6][7] Potential Risks - Experts identified several potential risks, including liquidity crises stemming from accumulated debt, geopolitical factors affecting market stability, and the need for proactive measures to address employment impacts from technological advancements [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the uncertainty in the macro - environment is expected to decline. China's economic growth may be driven by rebalancing, with a slight slowdown to 4.7%. The US economy may be driven by fiscal - stimulated consumption and AI investment, and there may be three 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts by the end of next year [3][10]. - In the Chinese market, valuation growth will shift from being liquidity - driven to profit - driven. Hong Kong stocks are cost - effective. Investment should focus on high - growth stocks and core asset themes such as overseas expansion, AI, and new consumption [3][10]. - In the consumer industry, the competitive environment is expected to improve. The investment strategy is to embrace new trends and new consumption. Traditional consumer industries offer opportunities in individual stock fundamental reversals, while new consumer companies focus on valuation rebounds after improved performance certainty [3][10]. - The pharmaceutical industry is optimistic. The innovative drug and CXO sectors are recommended due to factors like China's innovative drug R & D capabilities, policy support, and expected improvement in overseas biopharmaceutical investment and financing [4][10]. - The AI industry in the technology sector will continue to grow strongly, driving the growth of multiple industries and experiencing explosive demand growth in downstream applications [4][10]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 2026 China Macroeconomic Outlook: The Road to Economic Rebalancing in the First Year of the 15th Five - Year Plan - **Core Situation in 2025**: Thanks to pre - emptive policy efforts and better - than - expected external demand, the annual economic growth target of about 5% can be achieved. However, economic development still faces challenges such as imbalance between supply and demand, the unstable real estate industry, and low inflation [11][16]. - **2026 Outlook**: - **External and Internal Uncertainties**: External trade relations between China and the US may reach a new dynamic balance, and internal risks such as local government debt and real estate have decreased [17]. - **Challenges**: Economic imbalance persists, the real estate industry remains unstable, and low inflation affects investment and consumption confidence [18][19]. - **Policy**: Fiscal policy will maintain a 4.0% budget deficit rate, issue 1.6 trillion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, and may increase local government special bonds. It focuses on promoting consumption and stabilizing investment. Monetary policy will remain loose, with possible interest rate cuts of 10 - 20 basis points and reserve requirement ratio cuts of 50 - 100 basis points. Real estate policies will be moderately advanced [21][22]. - **Economic Growth**: Real economic growth is expected to slow to 4.7%. Consumption and investment will contribute 4.3 percentage points, higher than in 2025. The economic growth rate may be low in the first half and high in the second half. Inflation is expected to improve, with the CPI rising to 0.6% and the nominal GDP growth rate rising to 4.5%. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate will remain stable [23][24]. 2026 US Macroeconomic Outlook: The Road to Economic Recovery Led by Policy Stimulus No information provided. 2026 China Market Strategy Outlook: Demand - Driven Growth, Embracing New Core Assets - **Investment Strategy**: China's market liquidity will remain abundant, but valuation growth will be profit - driven. Hong Kong stocks are cost - effective. Investment should focus on high - growth stocks and core asset themes like overseas expansion, AI, and new consumption [10]. Consumer Industry 2026 Outlook: Find Opportunities in the Quiet and the Ordinary - **Industry Environment**: In a weak demand recovery environment, the competitive environment is expected to improve through upstream capacity reduction, downstream inventory clearance, and anti - involution [10]. - **Investment Strategy**: The key is to embrace new trends and new consumption. High - cost - performance domestic substitution, emotional consumption, health - related consumption, new retail formats, and domestic brands going overseas are important investment directions. Traditional consumer industries focus on individual stock fundamental reversals, and new consumer companies focus on valuation rebounds [10]. - **Preferred Stocks**: Pop Mart (9992.HK), Luckin Coffee (LKNCY.US), and Topsports (6110.HK) are preferred in 2026 [10]. Pharmaceutical Industry 2026 Outlook: Reach New Heights - **Optimistic Outlook**: The pharmaceutical sector is optimistic. The innovative drug sector is recommended due to China's leading R & D capabilities, policy support, and more biotech companies entering the profit stage. The CXO sector is also promising as overseas biopharmaceutical investment and financing is expected to improve [4][10]. Technology Industry 2026 Outlook: AI Algorithm Iteration Expands the Computing Power Base, and the Prosperous Ecosystem Reshapes the Growth Boundary - **AI Growth**: The AI industry will continue to grow strongly. Its underlying technology is in a flywheel - iteration stage, driving the growth of multiple industries and experiencing explosive demand growth in downstream applications such as C - end, B - end, and G - end. In the long run, it may bring growth to emerging industries like embodied intelligence [4][10].

Core Insights - The current stability mechanism of China's capital market has shifted from "crisis response" to "proactive governance," significantly enhancing the market's inherent stability [1] - The 2026 economic outlook is framed around the theme of "ReNew," highlighting the coexistence of global "new patterns and cycles" with domestic "new blueprints and new productive forces" [1][2] Group 1: Economic Challenges and Trends - The economic landscape is characterized by three layers of challenges: long-term "3D challenges" (aging population, debt crisis, de-globalization), mid-term "spiral downward" mechanisms, and recent "three inflection points" (U.S. political shift, China's economic transformation, global technological leap) [2] - Global economic growth is expected to continue a slight decline, but the growth gap between developed economies and emerging markets is predicted to narrow [2] - By 2026, Asia's economic scale is projected to surpass that of North America and Europe for the first time, indicating a profound shift in the global economic landscape [2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities and Strategies - China must seize opportunities presented by "creative destruction," with the government playing dual roles as "investor" and "insurer" to stimulate innovation and buffer transformation shocks [3] - The future of China's economy is summarized by "three news" (new blueprint, new starting point, new productive forces) and "three rebalances" (external vs. internal demand, supply vs. demand, nominal vs. real variables) [3] - The capital market is undergoing a paradigm shift from "cyclical fluctuations" to "structural changes," necessitating a comprehensive update of traditional analytical frameworks [4] Group 3: Asset Pricing and Market Dynamics - The traditional correlation between asset prices and economic fundamentals is being restructured, with economic drivers shifting from traditional inputs to innovation-driven growth [4] - The capital market in 2026 is expected to exhibit "economic rebalancing and moderate re-inflation," with fiscal policy maintaining necessary spending intensity and monetary policy remaining prudent [4] - Investors are advised to focus on the changes in "three prices": RMB exchange rate, Sino-U.S. interest rate differentials, and stock-bond relative prices, as these will influence asset performance [4] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - In the AI sector, a shift from "model-driven" to "application-driven" development is anticipated, with 2026 being a critical year for AI applications [5] - The communication industry is expected to upgrade due to AI computing power demands, with significant growth in AI capital expenditures by cloud vendors [5] - The pharmaceutical sector is undergoing a "hard technology" transformation, with a focus on innovative drug companies and medical device firms that possess genuine innovation capabilities [6] - The consumer market is evolving into a "dual-driven" new pattern, with continuous innovation in technology consumption and emerging new consumption scenarios [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the theme of "革故鼎新" (reform and innovation) for 2026, highlighting significant changes in economic growth, industry transitions, and macroeconomic policies compared to 2025 [5][7]. Economic Growth - The nominal GDP growth is expected to increase from 4% in 2025 to 5% in 2026, driven by a recovery in inflation [9][82]. - The economic growth model is characterized as "修复式增长" (restorative growth), indicating a gradual recovery rather than a typical economic rebound [13][19]. Industry Changes - Traditional industries are declining while new industries are emerging, with AI becoming a key driver of economic growth [10][35]. - The real estate sector is still undergoing adjustments, with a significant drop in investment by 14.7% year-on-year from January to October 2025 [28]. Internal and External Economic Rebalancing - The article stresses the importance of expanding domestic demand as a strategic foundation for economic development, moving away from reliance on external demand [10][40]. - Consumer spending is projected to recover in 2026, supported by policies aimed at increasing household income and consumption [11][45]. Policy Adjustments - Macroeconomic policies will focus on balancing short-term and long-term goals, maintaining a supportive stance in both fiscal and monetary policies [11][76]. - The fiscal policy is expected to remain proactive, with a budget deficit rate maintained at around 4% [74]. Investment Trends - Investment growth is anticipated to rebound in 2026, with manufacturing and infrastructure investments expected to increase by 5% [73]. - The real estate investment is projected to decline by 10%, but its decreasing share in total investment may lessen its overall impact [73]. Inflation and Currency Outlook - Inflation is expected to rise, with CPI projected to grow by approximately 0.4% in 2026, compared to zero growth in 2025 [80][82]. - The RMB exchange rate is likely to continue appreciating, potentially reaching 6.9 CNY/USD by the end of 2026 [83].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call focuses on the **China** market, particularly in the context of **U.S.-China relations**, **technology**, and **economic rebalancing**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **U.S.-China Relations**: The relationship has seen unexpected easing, but remains fragile due to competitive confrontations [8][12][23] 2. **Tariff Adjustments**: - U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods were reduced from 145% to 30% - China reduced tariffs from 125% to 10% [10] 3. **Trade Balance**: The trade balance between China and the U.S. has evolved, with significant changes in import dependencies across various product categories [13][15] 4. **Technology and Resource Competition**: The ongoing competition in technology, particularly in semiconductors and rare earth elements, is a critical factor influencing bilateral relations [17][21] 5. **China's Dominance in Key Industries**: - China holds a significant global market share in rare earths and lithium batteries, with percentages ranging from 49% to 92% across different stages of production [19] - The country has a strong position in lithium battery production due to its complete supply chain and cost advantages [17] 6. **Impact of AI on Employment**: The rise of AI is expected to create both opportunities and challenges in the labor market, with a significant portion of jobs being affected [40][41] 7. **Economic Rebalancing**: The Chinese economy is undergoing a slow rebalancing, with a focus on increasing consumption and improving social welfare systems [63][73] 8. **High Savings Rate**: China's high savings rate indicates potential for increased consumption and deeper capital market engagement [85][87] 9. **Social Security Reforms**: Reforms in social security are deemed essential for economic rebalancing, aiming to improve income distribution and enhance consumer spending [73][80] 10. **Future Economic Scenarios**: Various scenarios for U.S.-China relations and their economic impacts were discussed, ranging from pessimistic to optimistic outlooks [23][96] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Long-term Projections**: The potential for humanoid robots to reach a cumulative application scale of 1 billion units by 2050, with a significant portion expected from China [45] 2. **Structural Challenges**: The report highlights challenges in total factor productivity and the need for systemic reforms to address capital misallocation [54][63] 3. **Consumer Behavior**: The report notes that the high savings rate is largely due to precautionary motives stemming from economic shocks since 2018 [88][90] 4. **Policy Recommendations**: Suggestions for policy measures to stimulate consumption and improve social welfare were outlined, including fiscal stimulus and structural reforms [123] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the Chinese economy and its relationship with the U.S.

Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is expected to achieve a real GDP growth of 5.0% in 2026, with nominal GDP growth projected at 4.8%[22] - The retail sales of consumer goods are anticipated to grow by 4.7%, supported by policies encouraging durable goods consumption[22] - Fixed asset investment is forecasted to increase by 2.4%, with manufacturing investment maintaining a high growth rate[22] Inflation and Prices - CPI is expected to rise by 0.4%, while PPI is projected to decline by 1.1%[22] - The combination of internal demand stimulation and anti-involution policies is expected to drive a mild recovery in prices[22] Policy Environment - Fiscal policy will maintain continuity and stability, with a deficit rate of 4% and special bonds totaling CNY 1.3 trillion planned[22] - Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, with interest rates projected to decrease by 10-20 basis points and a reserve requirement ratio cut of 50 basis points[22] Investment Opportunities - The Chinese stock market is viewed positively for 2026, with expectations of excess returns due to a gradual bottoming of housing prices and steady currency appreciation[24] - The internal conditions are improving, with a focus on counter-cyclical policies and a stable liquidity environment[24] Global Context - The U.S. is expected to experience a shift in focus towards domestic economic growth, potentially benefiting China's export environment[24] - Global trade demand is projected to remain stable, with China's manufacturing advantages continuing to manifest[22]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the "15th Five-Year Plan" (十五五) in China, focusing on the transition from quantity to quality in industrial policy, emphasizing industrial ecology, cutting-edge standards, AI integration, and the reduction of traditional subsidies [1][3][8]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Shift in Policy Focus**: The main goal remains unchanged, but constraints have adjusted. Technology will be the core focus for the coming years, with a gradual reduction in direct subsidies and a shift towards building an innovative ecosystem to avoid destructive competition [3][8][12]. - **Gradual Rebalancing**: The policy framework will continue but with nuanced adjustments. The emphasis will be on achieving a balance between multiple objectives, including geopolitical risks and trade friction [3][10][12]. - **AI and Innovation**: AI is expected to enhance productivity through large-scale real-world applications, with a flexible GDP growth target set around 4.5% for the next five years [8][11]. - **Decline of Subsidy-Driven Profits**: Industries that have relied on subsidies will see diminishing returns, shifting the competitive focus to research intensity and execution capabilities of enterprises [8][15]. - **Economic Rebalancing**: The government aims to shift economic growth from supply-driven to demand-driven, with social security reforms expected to stimulate consumption and reduce high savings rates [13][30]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Local Incentive Mechanisms**: The existing local government incentive structures are criticized for promoting quantity over quality, necessitating a reform to encourage consumption rather than production [14][27]. - **Challenges in Total Factor Productivity (TFP)**: TFP growth has significantly slowed, indicating a need for structural reforms to enhance efficiency and resource allocation [17][18]. - **Emerging Industries**: China is rapidly advancing in strategic emerging industries such as AI, robotics, and biotechnology, with expectations to become a leader in these sectors by 2050 [42][43]. - **Supply Chain Vulnerabilities**: Despite advancements, China still faces challenges in high-end semiconductor production and relies on foreign technology for critical components, which poses geopolitical risks [43][44]. Conclusion - The conference call highlights a pivotal moment in China's industrial policy, emphasizing a transition towards innovation and quality, while addressing the need for structural reforms to enhance productivity and consumption. The focus on AI and emerging industries indicates a strategic shift that could redefine China's economic landscape in the coming years [1][3][8][12][42].

Economic Outlook - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes technology innovation and expanding domestic demand as key components of the 14th Five-Year Plan[1] - The projected real GDP growth target for 2026-2030 is estimated to be in the range of 4.5%-5.0%, with a target of around 5% for next year[1] - The actual GDP growth rate for Q3 was slightly above expectations at 4.8%, while nominal GDP growth fell to 3.7%[3] Trade Relations - The US-China trade conflict escalated in October but quickly reached a consensus following the fifth round of trade talks from October 24-27[2] - China's exports to the US saw a year-on-year decline of 27% in September, although the rate of decline narrowed by 6.1 percentage points[10] - Despite the recent easing of tensions, the potential for renewed trade conflicts remains, particularly in light of the focus on short-term issues in negotiations[9] Domestic Demand and Investment - Domestic demand indicators, particularly retail sales, have weakened, with September retail sales growth dropping to 3.0% from an average of 5.4% in Q2[21] - Fixed asset investment turned negative in September, with a year-on-year decline of 0.5%[22] - Infrastructure investment is expected to be a key support for overall fixed asset investment recovery, aided by new policy measures totaling 500 billion yuan[46] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The GDP deflator index for Q3 was approximately -1%, indicating persistent deflationary pressures[30] - CPI showed slight improvement in September, but core CPI has been rising for five consecutive months, driven by specific sectors like gold and durable goods[36] - Monetary policy is expected to remain cautious, with potential for further rate cuts if economic conditions do not improve[3]