Core Viewpoint - The shifting U.S. policy towards China reflects the growing economic disparity, with China's GDP surpassing that of the U.S. by a significant margin, leading to a reevaluation of military and economic strategies [2][5][12]. Economic Comparison - By 2025, China's GDP is projected to reach 41 trillion USD, while the U.S. GDP is expected to be 30 trillion USD, indicating that China's economic scale is now more than 1.3 times that of the U.S. [3][5]. - China's manufacturing output is reported to be over four times that of the U.S., showcasing a substantial lead in industrial capabilities [5][12]. Military and Strategic Adjustments - The U.S. military strategy has shifted to view China as a near-peer competitor rather than a primary threat, focusing on economic and diplomatic engagement instead of military confrontation [9][14]. - The Pentagon's 2025 report emphasizes the importance of economic competition and cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region, moving away from a purely militaristic approach [10][14]. Trade and Cooperation - The economic interdependence between the U.S. and China is highlighted, with China being a significant market for U.S. technology, and the U.S. easing some export restrictions on high-end chips to China [20]. - The Trump administration's approach has evolved from confrontation to a more pragmatic strategy aimed at economic rebalancing, recognizing the limitations of military power in addressing the challenges posed by China [20]. Industry-Specific Insights - In the shipbuilding industry, China's production capacity vastly outstrips that of the U.S., with China delivering 51.81% of global ship orders by 2025, compared to the U.S.'s minimal output [7]. - The U.S. shipbuilding costs are reported to be two to three times higher than the global average, indicating inefficiencies that hinder competitiveness [7]. Future Outlook - The ongoing dialogue between the U.S. and China, including planned high-level meetings, suggests a potential for increased cooperation despite existing tensions [18]. - The recognition of mutual economic benefits indicates a shift towards a more collaborative approach, with both nations needing to respect each other's positions to address shared concerns [20].

Global Macro Strategy - The report highlights a global economic rebalancing driven by various factors including increased fiscal expansion in the US, Japan, and Europe, and China's focus on stabilizing real estate and promoting consumption [1][2] - The US economy is expected to see GDP growth decrease from 2.2% last year to 2% this year, with PCE inflation projected to drop from 2.5% to 2.3% [1][4] - The report anticipates that risk assets may reach new highs, with cyclical and value stocks outperforming tech and growth stocks [1][2] United States - The US housing market is expected to see an increase in sales volume while prices remain stable, with existing home sales projected to grow by 10% and new home sales by 5% in 2026 [7] - The fiscal deficit is projected to rise from 5.4% last year to 6.2% this year, with significant tax cuts expected to stimulate the economy [11] - The report predicts that the Federal Reserve will only cut rates once in June, with the 10-year Treasury yield expected to rise from 4.18% to 4.3% by year-end [12][14] United Kingdom - The UK economy is expected to experience a slight slowdown, with GDP growth forecasted to decrease from 1.4% last year to 1.2% this year [19][20] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise from 4.4% to 5.1% as the job market cools, while wage growth is expected to normalize [20] - The report anticipates that the Bank of England will cut rates twice in 2026, bringing the policy rate down to 3.25% [24] Eurozone - The Eurozone's GDP growth is expected to slow from 1.4% last year to 1.2% this year, with inflation projected to stabilize around the target level [1][2] - The report indicates that the European Central Bank's rate-cutting cycle has ended, with policy rates expected to remain unchanged [1][2] Japan - Japan's GDP growth is forecasted to decline significantly from 1.3% last year to 0.7% this year, with inflation also expected to decrease [1][2] - The report suggests that the Bank of Japan may raise rates twice, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to rise from 2.07% to 2.45% [1][2] China - China's GDP growth is projected to slow from 5% last year to 4.6% this year, with a focus on stabilizing the real estate market and promoting consumption [1][2] - The report anticipates that the People's Bank of China will implement two rate cuts totaling 20 basis points and one reserve requirement ratio cut of 50 basis points [2]

Group 1 - Local governments have lowered growth targets, reflecting a more pragmatic approach rather than a pessimistic sentiment, allowing for greater flexibility in balancing growth and quality [1] - The overall weighted average national growth target remains around 5.1%, indicating that a target of "around 5%" is still reasonable amidst more pragmatic local goals [2] - Even if the national target is set at 4.5%-5%, it does not imply a weakening of policy stance; rather, it alleviates pressure from relying on investment and supply-side policies [3] Group 2 - The narrative around real estate has become more relaxed, with reports indicating that property companies no longer need to report "three red lines" indicators monthly, suggesting a symbolic easing of constraints [3] - Future policies are expected to be small-scale attempts to prevent overshooting rather than aggressive stimulus measures, with targeted demand-side policies anticipated to manage the adjustment pace in real estate [4] - The economic fundamentals at the start of the year are stable but not strong, with significant government bond issuance and high rebar shipment volumes indicating a solid start [5] Group 3 - Export performance remains resilient, with container throughput stable, suggesting a steady export growth rate for January [10] - Consumer spending is lagging, with a notable decline in passenger car sales and weak year-on-year appliance sales, indicating limited support for consumption [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - China's economic rebalancing and global liquidity easing are expected to support stocks, commodities, and EM currencies in 1H26, but may face challenges in 2H26 if US inflation resurges [3][11][17]. - The convergence of China's economic rebalancing and global liquidity easing is likely to bolster risky assets throughout 1H26, while the outlook for 2H26 is more cautious [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - In the Chinese IG space, MEITUA and KUAISH had balanced two - way flows, with slightly better selling on 10yr issues; ZHOSHK tightened 1bp; ORIEAS/CCAMCL papers with <5yr tenor tightened 1 - 3bps [2]. - In HK, FRESHK curve tightened 3 - 5bps; BNKEA T2s traded mixed; NWDEVL/VDNWDL complex surged 0.7 - 7.3pts; LASUDE 26 rose 0.9pt; FAEACO 12.814 Perp was 0.5pt higher; EHICAR 26 dropped 1.4pts [2]. - In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27 - 29 rose 1.5 - 1.8pts; SHUION 29/DALWAN 28 gained 0.4pt; DALWAN priced USD360mn new bond; LNGFOR 27 - 32/FUTLAN 28/FTLNHD 26 - 27 rose 0.3 - 1.2pts [2]. - In KR space, HYUELE 29s tightened 4bps; AU and JP fixed - rate IG credits squeezed 1 - 2bps tighter; JP bank FRNs tightened 1 - 2bps; JP insurance subs remained better offered; there were decent two - way flows in Yankee AT1s [2]. - In SE Asian space, BBLTB T2s tightened 2 - 3bps; GLPSP Perps rose 1.1 - 1.3pts; VEDLN 28 - 33s were unchanged to 0.4pt higher; INDYIJ 29 lost 0.4pt; MEDCIJ 26 - 30s were unchanged to 0.2pt lower [2]. - In the Middle Eastern space, long - end KSAs lost 0.1 - 0.3pt; SNBAB 6.15 Perp was 0.1pt lower; SECO 36 tightened 1bp; ARAMCO attracted better buying but closed largely unchanged [2]. Macro News Recap - On Thursday, S&P (-0.13%), Dow (+0.11%), and Nasdaq (-0.72%) were mixed; US latest initial jobless claims were +209k, higher than the market expectation; UST yield was lower, with 2/5/10/30 - year yield at 3.53%/3.80%/4.24%/4.85% [6]. Desk Analyst Comments - Regarding NWDEVL/VDNWDL, media reported Blackstone in advanced discussions to become NWD's largest shareholder; NWD confirmed potential investors approached, but no agreement reached; Cheng's family owns c45% of NWD [7]. - Cheng's family reshuffled group entities: transferred c54% of CTF Jewellery to Beyond Luck Limited; increased stakes in CTFH by 9.49% to 90.52%; CTFE to sell Alinta Energy to Sembcorp for AUD6.5bn (cUSD4.3bn) [8]. - Maintain buy on VDNWDL 9 Perp due to higher certainty of coupon payments; expect more corporate actions for NWDEVLs [9]. China Policy: Signals for Economic Rebalancing - China's policymakers signaled a pivot to "boosting domestic demand" in 2026 to address economic imbalance [10]. - Demand - side policies focus on stabilizing the property market and stimulating consumption; supply - side policies aim to address overcapacity; trade - side policies employ a four - pronged approach [10]. - The rebalancing process may lead to a GDP growth target reduction to 4.5% - 5% in 2026, but is structurally positive [10]. Offshore Asia New Issues - Issued: Dalian Wanda issued USD360mn 2 - yr bond at 12.75% coupon; First Abu Dhabi Bank PJS issued USD750mn 5 - yr bond at SOFR+75; Muthoot Finance issued USD600mn 4.5 - yr bond at 5.75% coupon [19][20]. - Pipeline: No offshore Asia new issues pipeline on this day [20]. News and Market Color - 101 credit bonds were issued yesterday in onshore primary issuances, amounting to RMB82bn; month - to - date, 1,920 credit bonds were issued with RMB1,652bn raised, a 13.5% yoy increase [25]. - Adani Group plans to raise up to cUSD1.5bn in JPY - denominated bonds and loans [25]. - China Overseas Grand Oceans and Yuexiu Property propose to issue 3 - yr dim sum bonds [25]. - China Vanke to make partial payment for 21Wanke02 onshore bonds on 30 Jan'26 [25]. - West China Cement's proposed acquisition of AfriSam Holdings has a consideration of USD150mn [25].

Macro Commentary - Chinese policymakers are signaling a strategic shift to prioritize domestic demand as the primary economic task by 2026, addressing issues like overcapacity, deflationary pressures, and weak confidence [2] - Demand-side policies will focus on stabilizing the real estate market and boosting consumption through measures such as lowering mortgage rates and purchasing unsold properties [2] - Supply-side policies will aim at structural adjustments, enhancing industry concentration by curbing capacity expansion and encouraging mergers and acquisitions [6] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 27,968, up 0.51% for the day and 9.12% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.00% [3] - The Chinese stock market saw gains, particularly in real estate, consumer staples, and financial sectors, with net inflows of 4.374 billion HKD from southbound funds [5] - The U.S. stock market experienced a pullback, with technology, consumer discretionary, and materials sectors leading the decline, while communication services, real estate, and energy sectors gained [5] Company Insights - Meta (META US) reported a 24% year-on-year revenue increase to 59.9 billion USD for Q4 2025, driven by AI-enhanced advertising growth, and provided a revenue guidance of 53.5-56.5 billion USD for Q1 2026 [6] - Microsoft (MSFT US) achieved 16.7% revenue growth to 81.3 billion USD in Q2 FY26, with strong performance in productivity and business processes, and provided a target price of 614.6 USD [6] - ServiceNow (NOW US) reported a 21% revenue increase to 3.57 billion USD for Q4 2025, with a positive outlook for FY26 driven by AI efficiencies, maintaining a target price of 215.0 USD [7][8] - Sunny Optical Technology (2382 HK) expects a 70-75% increase in net profit for 2025, driven by high-end camera upgrades and growth in automotive and smart glasses segments, with a target price of 91.38 HKD [8]

2012 31 2026-01-26 F3014717 Z0013223 01 PART ONE 主要观点 | 影响因素 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 本周国内大宗商品再度上涨，工业品、农产品双双走高。主要原因，一是地缘风险升温，去美元化加速，黄金白银双双大幅飙涨，带动有色板块纷纷走升；二是， | | | 反内卷预期再度升温，新能源金属板块再度大涨；三是，寒潮来临，能源价格大幅走高，推动能化板块反弹。 | | 海外 | 1）美国12月成屋签约销售指数环比大跌9.3%至71.8，同比下跌1.3%，不仅显著低于预期的下跌0.3%，更创下2020年4月疫情以来最大降幅，同时也是2001年有 | | | 数据记录以来12月同期最大跌幅。一方面，库存不足问题持续凸显，可售房源难以恢复至疫情前水平，制约市场交易活力；另一方面，受日本债市下跌及地缘政 | | | 治紧张影响，美国国债收益率已升至数月高位，而国债走势直接关联房贷成本，未来房贷利率上行风险将进一步抑制购房需求。2）特朗普透露美联储新主席候选 | | | 人已缩减至两位，其心中或仅剩一位，未披露具体人选，仅称贝莱德高管Rick Ri ...

January 23, 2026 09:51 AM GMT 亚洲经济 | Asia Pacific M Idea 观点：中国：人民币升值是否 有助于再平衡？ 我们不认同近期市场上日渐形成的观点⸺认为人民币升值将 有助于推动中国经济再平衡。大幅升值将阻碍通缩出清、压 缩企业利润率，并放缓工资增速。要实现可持续的再平衡， 仍需要大规模财政宽松以提振消费。 要点 In this report, we discuss why we think RMB appreciation will be more limited than the emerging consensus, and why it would not help ease deflationary pressures and rebalance the economy. This translated report is made available for convenience only and is based on the original research report published in English. In the event of ...

Core Viewpoint - The depreciation of the real effective exchange rate and the expansion of trade surplus are currently seen as important reasons for a bullish outlook on the RMB. However, historical trends and comparisons with the JPY/USD exchange rate suggest these reasons may not hold true. The RMB's appreciation should not be used as a policy tool for economic rebalancing, as it contradicts the principle of macro policy consistency and may trigger panic among private sectors [2][3][35]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - Since late November 2025, both onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates have shown a rapid appreciation, with the midpoint and trading prices rising to around 7.0, marking a cumulative increase of nearly 2% for the midpoint and over 4% for trading prices [2][35]. - The real effective exchange rate (REER) of the RMB has declined significantly, dropping 16.7% since March 2022, while the JPY has seen a similar decline of 17.1% during the same period [4][37]. - The recent trends in the JPY/USD exchange rate have not aligned with expectations based on the declining REER and narrowing interest rate differentials, indicating that multiple factors influence exchange rates [8][42]. Group 2: Trade Surplus and RMB Valuation - In the first 11 months of 2025, China's trade surplus reached $1,075.9 billion, an increase of 21.4% compared to the previous year, despite a decline in exports to the US [12][43]. - Historical data shows no simple linear relationship between trade surplus and RMB exchange rate movements, with instances where trade surplus increased while the RMB depreciated [16][47]. - The expansion of trade surplus is not a reliable predictor of RMB appreciation, as evidenced by various years where trade surplus growth coincided with RMB depreciation [16][48]. Group 3: Historical Context of RMB Policy - Following the 2008 global financial crisis, China implemented policies aimed at reducing trade surplus and promoting balance, resulting in a significant appreciation of the RMB due to structural adjustments and increased domestic demand [19][51]. - The relationship between the RMB's real effective exchange rate and China's external balance has shifted from a strong negative correlation (2008-2013) to a weak positive correlation (2014-2024), indicating a change in the effectiveness of leverage in driving investment [27][58]. - The RMB's depreciation in recent years reflects ongoing trade tensions and economic cycles, with the Chinese government emphasizing stability in the exchange rate to prevent rapid depreciation [29][60].

Economic Growth Outlook - China's economy is expected to maintain a recovery growth pattern, with GDP growth projected at around 5% for 2025 and 2026, supported by policy measures and internal demand expansion [1][2] - The nominal GDP growth is anticipated to improve significantly from 4% in 2025 to 5% in 2026 due to rising inflation and a recovery in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [1][2] Inflation and Consumer Prices - The improvement in nominal GDP growth is driven by inflation recovery, with PPI expected to decline at a much slower rate of approximately -0.6% in 2026 compared to -2.6% in 2025, while Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth is projected to turn positive at around 0.4% [2] Trade and External Demand - The easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S. is expected to support export growth, with a forecasted export growth rate of about 5% in 2026, while imports may rise to around 3% due to recovering domestic demand [2] Consumer Spending - Consumer spending is projected to improve in 2026, with retail sales growth estimated at 4.4%, aided by policies such as child-rearing subsidies and free preschool education [3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to recover slightly in 2026, with overall growth projected at around 2%, despite ongoing declines in real estate investment [3][4] Industry Transition - A shift from traditional industries to emerging sectors is becoming more pronounced, with the real estate sector undergoing significant adjustments and transitioning towards a focus on housing attributes [4] Economic Rebalancing - The emphasis on expanding domestic demand is crucial for long-term economic stability, with policies aimed at increasing consumer spending and enhancing income distribution expected to be prioritized [6][8] Policy Measures - The macroeconomic policy framework will focus on balancing short-term and long-term strategies, with continued support for fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate economic recovery [7][8]

Group 1: Global Narrative Shifts - The "narrative inflection points" driving global capital reallocation include changes in overseas economies, AI advancements reshaping US-China dynamics, and a decrease in China's economic tail risks[4]. - The narrative power is expected to persist into 2026, with global monetary policies remaining accommodative and fiscal expansion opportunities greater in non-US countries than in the US[4]. - The "narrative inflection points" encompass three layers: the end of the "American exceptionalism," Europe's awakening, and the decline of tail risks in the Chinese economy[4]. Group 2: Economic Rebalancing in China - The main theme for China's macroeconomic strategy in 2026 is transitioning from capital reallocation to economic rebalancing, as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" draft[4]. - Key shifts in ideology during the "14th Five-Year" period include prioritizing demand-side policies over supply-side policies, emphasizing consumption over investment, and focusing on "investment in people" alongside "investment in goods"[4]. - Fiscal policy is expected to enter a "rigid expansion" phase, maintaining a budget deficit ratio of 4%, with slight increases in special government bonds and local government bonds[4]. Group 3: Economic Growth Projections - The GDP target for 2026 is projected to remain around 5%, with an expected actual completion of 4.9%, indicating a flat "U-shaped" growth trajectory[4]. - Consumer subsidy policies are anticipated to increase by 100-200 billion yuan on top of the 300 billion yuan allocated in 2025 to support service consumption[4]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise moderately to 0.4%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to decline by 0.9%[4]. Group 4: Industry Opportunities and Risks - From a macro perspective, technology remains a primary investment focus, but consumer investment value is also expected to emerge[5]. - Potential risks for 2026 include the ongoing US-China relationship dynamics, uncertainties in the European economy, and pressures in the domestic real estate market[5].