上海证券指出，2025年全球晶圆代工产业营收有望同比增长22.1%，AI和电动汽车将成为2026年市 场最强劲的增长动力，出货量同比增幅预计分别达24%和14%。随着半导体供应链焦虑消退，客户库存 策略转向健康水平，紧急订单将推动2025年下半年晶圆代工市场表现超预期。AI HPC需求推动先进封 装技术发展，但CoWoS面临产能短缺、光罩尺寸限制及价格高昂等问题，部分云端服务业者开始转向 英特尔的EMIB技术。电子半导体行业2025年或迎来全面复苏，产业竞争格局加速出清修复，盈利周期 和相关公司利润有望持续复苏。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：刘畅 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 科创芯片ETF国泰（589100）跟踪的是科创芯片指数（000685），单日涨跌幅达20%，该指数聚焦 于覆盖半导体全产业链的科创板企业，选取涉及半导体材料、设备、设计、制造及封装测试等环节的上 市公司证券作为指 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is expected to benefit from a global semiconductor cycle upturn by 2026, driven by AI computing power demand, which will sustain the growth of GPU, HBM, and advanced packaging sectors [1] Industry Summary - The semiconductor industry is entering a new upturn phase starting from the end of 2023, with potential to shift from "repair expectations" to "prosperity verification" due to policy support, technological breakthroughs, and structural demand from downstream sectors [1] - The "technology innovation" sector has proposed "extraordinary" efforts for integrated circuits, further strengthening the long-term development logic of the industry [1] Company Summary - The Guotai ETF (589100) tracks the Sci-Tech Chip Index (000685), which saw a daily fluctuation of 20%. This index selects listed companies from the Sci-Tech board that are involved in the entire semiconductor industry chain, including materials, equipment, design, manufacturing, and packaging testing [1] - The Sci-Tech Chip Index focuses on high-growth areas and exhibits significant elasticity and volatility, making it suitable for investors with a higher risk tolerance seeking excess returns [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the AI wave is driving a new cycle of price increases in storage, with NAND and DRAM prices continuing to rise due to both manufacturers controlling supply and price hikes [1] - The price of 1Tb Flash Wafer has increased by nearly 15%, while the price of 512Gb Flash Wafer has risen by over 20% [1] - Trendforce estimates that the price of general DRAM will increase by 8-13% in the fourth quarter, and if HBM is included, the increase will expand to 13-18% [1] Group 2 - The average contract price increase for NAND Flash is projected to be 5-10% [1] - The demand for large-capacity storage in data centers is rapidly growing, driven by AI reshaping the storage cycle logic from "cyclical" to "structural" [1] - The penetration rate of smart terminals is increasing, which is promoting innovation in storage technology and market expansion [1] Group 3 - The Guotai Science and Technology Chip ETF (589100) tracks the Science and Technology Chip Index (000685), which includes companies across the entire semiconductor industry chain [1] - The index consists of 50 representative securities selected from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board market, reflecting the overall performance and development trends of listed companies in China's semiconductor industry [1] - The index is characterized by high growth potential and industry representation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic semiconductor equipment and component companies are expected to benefit continuously as the overseas-related news pressures the domestic advanced storage and logic wafer factories to accelerate expansion and gradually reduce dependence on foreign equipment [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The domestic advanced storage and logic wafer factories are accelerating their expansion efforts [1] - There is a significant push for domestic substitution of semiconductor equipment and components due to external pressures [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The Guotai Science and Technology Chip ETF (589100) tracks the Science and Technology Chip Index (000685), which includes 50 representative securities from the semiconductor industry chain, reflecting the overall performance and development trends of related listed companies in China [1] - The index is characterized by high growth potential and industry representation [1]

Core Insights - The stock price of the Hong Kong innovative drug company, Yaojie Ankang, has experienced significant volatility, drawing widespread market attention due to its recent inclusion in multiple indices, including the Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index [1][2] Group 1: Company Overview - Yaojie Ankang, listed on June 23, 2025, is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing innovative therapies for tumors, inflammation, and cardiovascular metabolic diseases [2] - Since its listing, Yaojie Ankang's stock price had been steadily increasing until its inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect on September 8, which triggered a surge in buying activity [2][3] Group 2: Stock Performance - Following its inclusion in the indices, Yaojie Ankang's stock price surged by 77.09% on September 12 and further increased by 115.58% on September 15 [2][3] - However, on September 16, the stock price plummeted by 53.73%, dropping from 679.5 HKD per share to 192 HKD per share, illustrating extreme volatility [2][3] Group 3: Index Inclusion and ETF Impact - The inclusion of Yaojie Ankang in the Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index led to passive buying from ETFs, with one ETF purchasing 3 million shares, amounting to approximately 578 million HKD, which represented about 2.62% of the fund's net value [3][4] - The total scale of the five ETFs tracking the Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index is approximately 35.963 billion HKD, suggesting a passive buying amount of around 940 million HKD [3][4] Group 4: Index Adjustment Controversy - The adjustment process for the Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index has faced criticism for lacking transparency, as the index company did not announce Yaojie Ankang's inclusion in advance, impacting investors' awareness [4][5] - Concerns have been raised regarding the index's sample selection criteria, as Yaojie Ankang had been listed for less than three months and did not fully meet the requirements regarding average daily trading volume [5] Group 5: Market Dynamics and ETF Influence - The expansion of ETFs has significantly increased their influence on market dynamics, with passive funds becoming a powerful force affecting stock price movements [6][7] - As ETF sizes surpass 5 trillion HKD, the impact of passive buying and selling on individual stocks is expected to intensify, particularly during quarterly adjustments [6][7]

Industry Overview - The policy guidance to include Sci-Tech Innovation Board ETFs in fund advisory configurations indicates the potential acceleration of a new wealth management model combining advisory services and ETFs [1][2][3] - The rapid growth of the ETF market in China, with 1,200 listed ETFs and an asset scale of approximately 4.18 trillion yuan, highlights the increasing demand for integrating ETFs into fund advisory services [2][3] Market Dynamics - The current ETF industry is at a critical transformation stage, facing challenges such as a traditional sales model that prioritizes scale over service [2][4] - The integration of ETFs into fund advisory services is expected to enhance investment efficiency and broaden the investment strategies available to advisory firms [3][5] Investment Strategies - Fund advisors can leverage ETFs to create more flexible and diverse strategy combinations, improving tracking accuracy and trading efficiency [3][6] - The inclusion of Sci-Tech Innovation Board ETFs in advisory configurations is anticipated to attract stable, long-term capital into the technology innovation sector [3][5] Global Comparisons - In mature markets like the U.S., 90% of investment advisors utilize ETFs, with the proportion of ETF assets in advisory portfolios increasing from 18% to 45% over the past decade [5][6] - The advantages of the "advisor + ETF" model include lower management fees, flexible trading, and clear exposure, which can meet diverse client investment needs [5][6] Institutional Preparedness - Institutions are actively enhancing their service capabilities to meet the demands of the new "advisor + ETF" model, focusing on research support, asset allocation optimization, and technology application [7][8] - Some institutions have already begun implementing ETF investment strategies in their public and private fund management [8] Challenges and Considerations - The integration of ETFs into advisory strategies presents challenges in cash management, fund utilization efficiency, and the synchronization of portfolio adjustments [9] - Issues such as product homogeneity, resource limitations, and regulatory compliance need to be addressed for the successful promotion of the "advisor + ETF" model [9]