1月29日，科创芯片ETF国泰（589100）回调超1.1%，市场关注行业景气，把握回调布局机会。 科创芯片ETF国泰（589100）跟踪的是科创芯片指数（000685），单日涨跌幅限制达20%，该指数 从科创板市场中选取涉及半导体材料、设计、制造、封装测试等全产业链环节的上市公司证券作为指数 样本，以反映半导体产业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。该指数聚焦于高成长性与科技创新能力，体现 了中国在半导体领域的自主可控进程与技术突破趋势。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供 参考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构 成投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产 品要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：刘畅 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong demand for AI applications and the supply shortage of advanced process and memory chips, leading multinational semiconductor industry leaders to expand their production capacity [1] - The capital expenditure of multinational semiconductor leaders for the fiscal year 2026 is expected to remain optimistic, driven by robust global cleanroom construction demand [1] - Cleanroom orders are anticipated to see both volume and price increases, with profit margins likely to be revised upward due to the slow expansion of construction capabilities [1] Group 2 - Cleanrooms are identified as a fundamental infrastructure component, with the potential for positive changes in their fundamentals to occur first [1] - The capital expenditure in the semiconductor industry is primarily directed towards cleanroom construction and semiconductor equipment [1] - The Guotai Science and Technology Chip ETF (589100) tracks the Science and Technology Chip Index (000685), which has a daily price fluctuation limit of 20% and selects no more than 50 large-cap semiconductor-related securities from the STAR Market [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the technology sector is entering a "super cycle" driven by AI data center construction, with strong demand for computing chips, storage, network equipment, and power [1] - The storage industry is experiencing a surge in demand for HBM4e, with increasing manufacturing difficulties, while new storage systems like Context Memory Storage System aim to address the massive data storage needs of large models [1] - Advanced processes and packaging in semiconductor equipment are in continuous demand, with relevant equipment manufacturers playing a crucial role [1] Group 2 - The ETF Guotai (589100) tracks the semiconductor index (000685), which has a daily price fluctuation limit of 20%, focusing on companies across the entire semiconductor industry chain, including materials, equipment, design, manufacturing, and packaging [2] - The index selects no more than 50 large-cap securities in the relevant fields to reflect the overall performance of the semiconductor industry chain and its high growth and technological innovation characteristics [2]

Group 1 - The global wafer foundry industry is expected to see a revenue growth of 22.1% year-on-year by 2025, driven by AI and electric vehicles, with shipment growth rates projected at 24% and 14% respectively for 2026 [1] - As semiconductor supply chain anxieties ease, customer inventory strategies are shifting towards healthier levels, with urgent orders expected to drive better-than-expected performance in the wafer foundry market in the second half of 2025 [1] - The demand for AI high-performance computing (HPC) is promoting the development of advanced packaging technologies, although CoWoS faces challenges such as capacity shortages, photomask size limitations, and high costs, leading some cloud service providers to shift towards Intel's EMIB technology [1] Group 2 - The electronic semiconductor industry may experience a comprehensive recovery in 2025, with an accelerated clearing and repair of the competitive landscape, leading to a sustained recovery in profit cycles and related company profits [1] - The Guotai Science and Technology Chip ETF (589100) tracks the Science and Technology Chip Index (000685), which has a daily fluctuation of 20%, focusing on semiconductor companies across the entire industry chain, including materials, equipment, design, manufacturing, and packaging testing [1]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is expected to benefit from a global semiconductor cycle upturn by 2026, driven by AI computing power demand, which will sustain the growth of GPU, HBM, and advanced packaging sectors [1] Industry Summary - The semiconductor industry is entering a new upturn phase starting from the end of 2023, with potential to shift from "repair expectations" to "prosperity verification" due to policy support, technological breakthroughs, and structural demand from downstream sectors [1] - The "technology innovation" sector has proposed "extraordinary" efforts for integrated circuits, further strengthening the long-term development logic of the industry [1] Company Summary - The Guotai ETF (589100) tracks the Sci-Tech Chip Index (000685), which saw a daily fluctuation of 20%. This index selects listed companies from the Sci-Tech board that are involved in the entire semiconductor industry chain, including materials, equipment, design, manufacturing, and packaging testing [1] - The Sci-Tech Chip Index focuses on high-growth areas and exhibits significant elasticity and volatility, making it suitable for investors with a higher risk tolerance seeking excess returns [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the AI wave is driving a new cycle of price increases in storage, with NAND and DRAM prices continuing to rise due to both manufacturers controlling supply and price hikes [1] - The price of 1Tb Flash Wafer has increased by nearly 15%, while the price of 512Gb Flash Wafer has risen by over 20% [1] - Trendforce estimates that the price of general DRAM will increase by 8-13% in the fourth quarter, and if HBM is included, the increase will expand to 13-18% [1] Group 2 - The average contract price increase for NAND Flash is projected to be 5-10% [1] - The demand for large-capacity storage in data centers is rapidly growing, driven by AI reshaping the storage cycle logic from "cyclical" to "structural" [1] - The penetration rate of smart terminals is increasing, which is promoting innovation in storage technology and market expansion [1] Group 3 - The Guotai Science and Technology Chip ETF (589100) tracks the Science and Technology Chip Index (000685), which includes companies across the entire semiconductor industry chain [1] - The index consists of 50 representative securities selected from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board market, reflecting the overall performance and development trends of listed companies in China's semiconductor industry [1] - The index is characterized by high growth potential and industry representation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic semiconductor equipment and component companies are expected to benefit continuously as the overseas-related news pressures the domestic advanced storage and logic wafer factories to accelerate expansion and gradually reduce dependence on foreign equipment [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The domestic advanced storage and logic wafer factories are accelerating their expansion efforts [1] - There is a significant push for domestic substitution of semiconductor equipment and components due to external pressures [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The Guotai Science and Technology Chip ETF (589100) tracks the Science and Technology Chip Index (000685), which includes 50 representative securities from the semiconductor industry chain, reflecting the overall performance and development trends of related listed companies in China [1] - The index is characterized by high growth potential and industry representation [1]

Core Insights - The stock price of the Hong Kong innovative drug company, Yaojie Ankang, has experienced significant volatility, drawing widespread market attention due to its recent inclusion in multiple indices, including the Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index [1][2] Group 1: Company Overview - Yaojie Ankang, listed on June 23, 2025, is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing innovative therapies for tumors, inflammation, and cardiovascular metabolic diseases [2] - Since its listing, Yaojie Ankang's stock price had been steadily increasing until its inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect on September 8, which triggered a surge in buying activity [2][3] Group 2: Stock Performance - Following its inclusion in the indices, Yaojie Ankang's stock price surged by 77.09% on September 12 and further increased by 115.58% on September 15 [2][3] - However, on September 16, the stock price plummeted by 53.73%, dropping from 679.5 HKD per share to 192 HKD per share, illustrating extreme volatility [2][3] Group 3: Index Inclusion and ETF Impact - The inclusion of Yaojie Ankang in the Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index led to passive buying from ETFs, with one ETF purchasing 3 million shares, amounting to approximately 578 million HKD, which represented about 2.62% of the fund's net value [3][4] - The total scale of the five ETFs tracking the Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index is approximately 35.963 billion HKD, suggesting a passive buying amount of around 940 million HKD [3][4] Group 4: Index Adjustment Controversy - The adjustment process for the Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index has faced criticism for lacking transparency, as the index company did not announce Yaojie Ankang's inclusion in advance, impacting investors' awareness [4][5] - Concerns have been raised regarding the index's sample selection criteria, as Yaojie Ankang had been listed for less than three months and did not fully meet the requirements regarding average daily trading volume [5] Group 5: Market Dynamics and ETF Influence - The expansion of ETFs has significantly increased their influence on market dynamics, with passive funds becoming a powerful force affecting stock price movements [6][7] - As ETF sizes surpass 5 trillion HKD, the impact of passive buying and selling on individual stocks is expected to intensify, particularly during quarterly adjustments [6][7]

Industry Overview - The policy guidance to include Sci-Tech Innovation Board ETFs in fund advisory configurations indicates the potential acceleration of a new wealth management model combining advisory services and ETFs [1][2][3] - The rapid growth of the ETF market in China, with 1,200 listed ETFs and an asset scale of approximately 4.18 trillion yuan, highlights the increasing demand for integrating ETFs into fund advisory services [2][3] Market Dynamics - The current ETF industry is at a critical transformation stage, facing challenges such as a traditional sales model that prioritizes scale over service [2][4] - The integration of ETFs into fund advisory services is expected to enhance investment efficiency and broaden the investment strategies available to advisory firms [3][5] Investment Strategies - Fund advisors can leverage ETFs to create more flexible and diverse strategy combinations, improving tracking accuracy and trading efficiency [3][6] - The inclusion of Sci-Tech Innovation Board ETFs in advisory configurations is anticipated to attract stable, long-term capital into the technology innovation sector [3][5] Global Comparisons - In mature markets like the U.S., 90% of investment advisors utilize ETFs, with the proportion of ETF assets in advisory portfolios increasing from 18% to 45% over the past decade [5][6] - The advantages of the "advisor + ETF" model include lower management fees, flexible trading, and clear exposure, which can meet diverse client investment needs [5][6] Institutional Preparedness - Institutions are actively enhancing their service capabilities to meet the demands of the new "advisor + ETF" model, focusing on research support, asset allocation optimization, and technology application [7][8] - Some institutions have already begun implementing ETF investment strategies in their public and private fund management [8] Challenges and Considerations - The integration of ETFs into advisory strategies presents challenges in cash management, fund utilization efficiency, and the synchronization of portfolio adjustments [9] - Issues such as product homogeneity, resource limitations, and regulatory compliance need to be addressed for the successful promotion of the "advisor + ETF" model [9]