文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 一、【第409期直播回放】 有朋友问，市场风格轮动快，这轮行情中，哪些品种领涨？ 哪些品种到过高估？ 如果没到高估，基金还有收益吗？ 在今晚的直播课里，螺丝钉详细介绍了这些问题。 长按识别下面二维码，添加 @课程小助手 微信，回复「 1010 」即可观看直播回放。 （提示：回复后可以耐心等待几秒哦～） 二、【部分直播课内容如下】 1. 这轮行情，和2013-2017年比较相似 2013年，A股基本面比较低迷，上市公司盈利下降。 同时利率也比较高，压制了市场表现。 A股在2012-2014年，断断续续的出现了较长时间的5点几星。 2014年，为了刺激经济，开启了大幅降息。 较低估值、加上资金面宽松，让A股开始迅速上涨。 （1）2014年下半年，先是证券大幅上涨，拉开牛市序幕。 （2）2015年上半年，小盘股、成长风格接力，大幅上涨，并在2015年6月达到泡沫估值。 随后小盘、成长风格泡沫破裂，出现腰斩下跌。 （3）2016-2017年，随着基本面复苏，大盘价值股、消费股出现上涨。 到2017年底，大盘价值、消费超过2015年最高位，创下当时的历史新高。 这轮行情跟2013 ...

证券研究报告 跟踪经济、掘金市场 | 主要观点： | 报告日期：2025-10-09 | | --- | --- | | √ 中证全指的风险溢价百分位为 45.07%，表明市场整体处于正 | 执业信息 | | 常回报区域。 | 林烽 策略分析师 执业编号：S1750522120001 | | √ 沪深 300 的风险溢价当前值为 5.17%，回报水平较高，值得重 | 电话：18605980882 | | 点关注。 | 邮件：linfeng@jypscnet.com | | √ 中证全指的市净率百分位为 41.77%，表明市场整体处于正常 | 免责声明 | | 估值状态。 | 报告观点基于逻辑分析、 | | √ 上证指数的市净率百分位为 22.68%，估值水平相对较低，值 | 数据规律推演，并不能预知不 同市场主体在复杂约束下的 | | 得重点关注。 | 多样选择结果。 | | √ 中证全指乖离率为 18.59%，表明市场整体价格水平处于正常 | 相关报告 | | 偏强区域。 | 20250201《策略月报：指 | | √ 科创 50 和创业板 50 处于超买状态，适度警惕短线风险。 | 数化投资策略月报（20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of balancing growth ("small stocks") and stability ("large stocks") in investment strategies to navigate through different market cycles effectively [5][20]. Group 1: Historical Perspective on Investment Strategies - The distinction between "old stocks" and "new stocks" is not about superiority; both serve as tools in an investment portfolio, with their effectiveness varying by market conditions [6][7]. - Historical data shows that while growth stocks may outperform during bull markets, stable dividend-paying stocks can provide consistent returns over the long term, mitigating risks during downturns [11][14]. - The performance of various indices from 2013 to 2025 illustrates that while growth stocks can have significant short-term gains, they also experience substantial drawdowns, whereas dividend low-volatility stocks offer steadier returns [12][13]. Group 2: Hong Kong Stock Market Insights - The Hong Kong stock market is characterized by higher volatility and faster rhythms, making high dividend and low volatility strategies particularly valuable [15]. - The Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index employs strict rules to ensure sustainable dividends and avoid pitfalls like "dividend traps" [17][18]. - Over the past three to seven years, the Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index has outperformed the Hang Seng Index, demonstrating its effectiveness in providing stable returns [19]. Group 3: A+H Market Strategy - The core value of low-volatility dividend stocks lies in their defensive role within a portfolio, providing stability and peace of mind for investors [21]. - The A-share market's low-volatility dividend ETF has proven its defensive value over the past decade, while the Hong Kong counterpart offers new opportunities for investors [21][22]. - A balanced approach combining both defensive and growth-oriented assets is essential for long-term investment success [22][24].

Core Insights - The article discusses the differences between the ChiNext Index and the Sci-Tech 50 Index, highlighting their unique roles in China's capital market and technology sector [1][2]. Group 1: Growth Characteristics - The ChiNext Index, established in 2009, has evolved from a platform for internet service companies to a benchmark for various sectors including new energy, high-end equipment, and biomedicine, representing a "versatile expert" in China's new economy [1][2]. - The Sci-Tech 50 Index, launched in 2019, focuses on key technology areas such as semiconductors, AI, and biomedicine, embodying a "hardcore pioneer" with a strong emphasis on technological breakthroughs [2]. Group 2: Investment Logic - Investment in the ChiNext Index is driven by the potential for high growth in established sectors, with a focus on revenue and net profit growth, and a current TTM PE ratio of approximately 44 times, indicating a reasonable valuation [3][4]. - For the Sci-Tech 50 Index, investors should prioritize the potential for technology commercialization and the intensity of R&D investment, with a TTM PE ratio of 180 times, but a projected net profit compound annual growth rate of nearly 50% from 2025 to 2027 [4]. Group 3: Index Investment Strategy - Index investing provides a safer approach for ordinary investors, mitigating risks associated with rapid technological changes and individual stock volatility [6][7]. - By diversifying investments across both the ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 indices, investors can benefit from different growth cycles and reduce the impact of sector rotation [7][8]. Group 4: Conclusion - The ChiNext ETF and Sci-Tech 50 ETF represent complementary investment opportunities, allowing investors to participate in China's technological growth while lowering the barriers to entry [8].

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently experiencing fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing signs of volatility and a slight afternoon rally, influenced by the brokerage index's performance. The central bank's recent meeting focused on the long-term development of the financial industry rather than immediate policy changes, leading to speculation about potential interest rate cuts in line with the Federal Reserve's actions. However, the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged for the fourth consecutive month, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1][2][4]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown a mixed performance, with a notable increase in the brokerage index by 1.15%. The market sentiment has been fluctuating, with expectations of a possible interest rate cut around late October or early November due to economic conditions [1][2]. - The market has seen a significant emotional shift, with the index experiencing a steady rise until it reached a near ten-year high, followed by a period of consolidation without effectively breaking through the 3900-point level [2][4]. Investor Behavior - Recent data indicates a trend of new retail investors entering the market, with 2.64 million new individual accounts opened in August, a 35% increase from July. However, this figure is still below the historical highs seen in 2015 [4][7]. - There is a notable trend of household deposits shifting, with a decrease of 600 billion yuan in household deposits year-on-year in August, while non-bank financial institutions saw an increase of 550 billion yuan. This reflects ongoing changes in deposit behavior among residents [7][10]. Market Sentiment - Despite concerns about the high level of the index around 3800 points, the overall market sentiment does not appear to be overheated, suggesting that there is still room for further emotional expansion [10]. - The market is currently waiting for a decisive direction, with frequent signals for portfolio adjustments in high-positioned sectors due to significant fluctuations [11][18]. Sector Trends - The recent performance of various indices indicates a trend towards specific sectors, with the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 index rising by 3.38% following its inclusion in a selected broad-based index [11][13]. - The stock-bond yield spread currently stands at 5.28%, indicating a relatively favorable market condition for equities compared to historical averages [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a neutral perspective on the author's opinions, emphasizing that the content does not reflect the views of Hexun and that readers should independently verify the information provided [1]. Group 1 - The article highlights the importance of accuracy and reliability in financial reporting, suggesting that readers should approach the information with caution [1]. - It indicates that the opinions expressed are solely those of the author, reinforcing the need for independent judgment by the readers [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market conditions, highlighting the rotation of market styles and identifying sectors that have reached overvaluation, while also emphasizing the importance of earnings growth as a fundamental driver of long-term investment returns [7][15][18]. Market Performance - The overall market experienced a slight decline, closing at 4.2 stars, with large-cap stocks down and small-cap stocks slightly up [1][2]. - The technology sector in Hong Kong showed strength, with gains exceeding 1.5% [4][5]. - The A-share market has seen significant style rotation, with certain sectors experiencing rapid increases in valuation [7][15]. Overvalued Sectors - Several sectors have reached overvaluation this year: - **Banking Index**: Experienced a significant rise in 2022-2024 during a bear market, peaking in July before correcting to a normal high valuation [9][10][11]. - **Hong Kong Pharmaceutical Index**: After a sharp decline in April, it rebounded with substantial earnings growth, leading to a double-up trend before correcting to a normal high valuation [12][13]. - **Military Industry**: Saw a rise due to military exercises in September, reaching high valuation before experiencing a correction [14]. - **Chip Sector and Sci-Tech 50**: Benefited from a booming chip industry, reaching high valuations in late August before a slight pullback [14]. - **North Certificate 50**: This small-cap index also reached high valuation after significant gains in August [14]. Market Dynamics - The A-share bull market is characterized by style rotation rather than broad-based rallies, with leading sectors often reaching overvaluation first [15]. - Historical comparisons suggest that the current market resembles the 2013-2017 period, where specific sectors led the market and subsequently faced corrections [15][18]. Earnings Growth and Investment Strategy - Long-term investment returns are primarily driven by earnings growth rather than valuation increases [15][18]. - The article emphasizes that even in bear markets, indices can rise significantly over time, independent of high valuations [15][18]. Valuation Insights - A summary of various indices' valuations is provided, indicating which sectors are undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued, aiding investors in making informed decisions [22][29][31].

Market Overview - The market has shown strong momentum, recovering from a recent decline of approximately 6% and closing at 4.3 stars [1][2] - Growth stocks that previously experienced significant declines have rebounded strongly [3] - The leading sectors in the market have shifted, with the ChiNext board experiencing substantial gains [4][5] Sector Analysis - The ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation boards, while both growth-oriented, have different industry compositions [6] - The Sci-Tech board is closely related to chips and AI, whereas the ChiNext is more associated with new energy, pharmaceuticals, and technology [7] - The Sci-Tech 50 index has reached high valuations earlier this year, while the ChiNext has recently started to catch up [8] Investment Cycles - The market operates in cycles, alternating between bull and bear markets due to economic cyclicality [23] - Three main cycles influence the stock market: fundamental cycle, liquidity cycle, and sentiment cycle [25] - The fundamental cycle reflects the growth rate of corporate earnings, which has been slow from 2022 to 2024 but is expected to recover by 2025 [26][28] - The liquidity cycle is influenced by interest rate changes, with anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve likely to boost markets [30][31] - The sentiment cycle is characterized by investor emotions, which can lead to extreme optimism or pessimism [32][34] Investment Strategy - Investors should recognize that opportunities arise during market declines, while risks often emerge during market rallies [36] - Smart investors can capitalize on these cycles by buying during downturns and selling during upswings, while remaining patient during neutral periods [41] Valuation Insights - The article provides a summary of Hong Kong stock index valuations, which can serve as a reference for investors [43] - Various indices are listed with their respective price-to-earnings ratios, price-to-book ratios, and dividend yields, indicating the current market valuation landscape [45][46][47][48]

Group 1 - The core conclusion is that stocks outperform bonds, with a focus on the changing structure and style of equity investments, while technology plays a crucial role in driving growth despite weakening cyclical forces [1][2] - The A-share market shows a significant performance from technology stocks, with the ChiNext Index rising by 8.6% and the Sci-Tech 50 Index by 5.5%, indicating a shift towards risk assets, particularly in the tech sector [2][3] - The wealth effect is becoming apparent as the Shanghai Composite Index surpasses a ten-year high, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics and the disappearance of previous trapped positions [3] Group 2 - The next market trajectory is uncertain, with the potential for a bull market contingent on macroeconomic support; recent macro data shows a mixed recovery, highlighting the need for careful analysis of market divergences [4][13] - The current liquidity surplus is a necessary condition for equity asset appreciation, while changes in investment preferences are seen as a sufficient condition for sustained growth [4][10] - The analysis of remaining liquidity indicates that while there is a movement of household savings into the stock market, it has not yet reached an extreme bullish state, suggesting a cautious approach is warranted [9][12] Group 3 - The macroeconomic environment is critical for asset allocation, with July data indicating a "strong external, weak internal" scenario, where exports are resilient but domestic demand is slowing [13][14] - Industrial growth is uneven, with a notable decline in traditional sectors, while high-tech industries show stronger growth, reflecting a shift in investment focus [14][15] - The consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) data suggest that while there are positive trends, they are still in a phase of gradual change, requiring further observation before altering investment strategies [16][17] Group 4 - The investment strategy is shifting from theme-based investments to a focus on leading industries, with traditional sectors facing significant differentiation and potential elimination of underperforming companies [18][19] - Emerging industries are expected to focus on the application of technology rather than just technological advancements, as seen in the performance of innovative pharmaceuticals [19] - The macroeconomic trading perspective is transitioning from safety to development, indicating a need for foundational support for this shift [20]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the current market is experiencing a liquidity-driven bull market, with the potential for a transition to a fundamental bull market by the end of the year, contingent on external factors such as global tariff resolutions and fiscal expansions in major economies [3][4][87] - The report identifies a significant performance gap between growth stocks, particularly in the ChiNext index, and value stocks, suggesting that the ChiNext index is currently undervalued and poised for further gains [2][31][50] - The report highlights the increasing inflow of southbound funds into Hong Kong stocks, particularly in the technology sector, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards growth-oriented assets [12][32][44] Group 2 - The report outlines a "three-headed bull" market scenario, which includes a short-term liquidity bull market, a mid-term fundamental bull market, and a long-term transition from old to new economic drivers, suggesting a comprehensive market recovery [3][4][5] - The report notes that the current market environment is conducive to a structural shift towards "middle assets," which are expected to outperform as the economy stabilizes and earnings begin to recover [46][47][56] - The report indicates that the current valuation of the ChiNext index is at a historical low, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.89, suggesting a relative valuation advantage compared to other major indices [50][51][52]