关注集思录微信 特别提示 本文不构成任何投资建议，仅为信息分享。任何因本文导致的投资行为发生的亏损，本公众 号及作者概不承担任何责任。 去年年底我想 25年这一年涨了不少， 还依稀记得24年惨淡的行情， 我要保守， 26年能挣 5%我就满足了。 这开年第一周，科创板指数都已经涨了10% 连转债等权指数都涨了5.44% 去年年底我想 25年这一年涨了不少 还依稀记得24年惨淡的行情 我要保守 26年能挣5%我就 满足了 这开年第一周，科创板指数都已经涨了10% 连转债等权指数都涨了5.44% | | 指数涨幅统计(刷新) 历史数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | | | 本日涨幅 本周涨幅 本月涨幅 本季涨幅 本年涨幅 | | | | 000680 | 科创综指 | 1803.40 | 2.09% | 10.19% | 10.19% | 10.19% | 10.19% | | 000688 | 科创50 | 1475.97 | 1.43% | 9.80% | 9.80% | 9.80 ...

增量资金入市不会是2026年市场上一个新台阶的主要因素。2026年最大的预期差来自于外需与内需的平 衡，对外"征税"、补贴内需应是大势所趋，今年是个重要的开端。站在开年，考虑到去年末的资金热度 并不算高，人心思涨的环境下开年后市场震荡向上的概率更高。 国泰海通：一年之计在于春 从机构的赚钱效应来看，2025年在过去10年里能排到第三，过去20年里排到第六。在一个回头来看巨大 的结构性牛市当中，实际上市场既享受了预期差带来的"估值的钱"，也挣到了"业绩的钱"，预期差来自 于对中国自主科技能力的重估以及中美关系，而结构性的超预期业绩来自复杂贸易环境下外需的韧性以 及AI推理需求爆发，这些因素站在2025年初来看并不是那么理所应当会发生。增量流动性只是预期差 和业绩兑现过程中的结果，或者是用于后验的解释牛市形成的理由，投资者过于高估了增量资金对市场 的影响。 在市场持续反弹之际，中国股市有望跨越与站稳重要关口。海外流动性的宽松，叠加春节前结汇，有望 推动人民币的稳定与升值。以A500ETF为代表的增量资金持续涌入，叠加险资"开门红"，配置需求进一 步夯实流动性基础。政策进一步发力提振增长的必要性抬升，"逆周期与跨周 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 在有特殊事件发生，以致影响指数的代 表性和可投资性时，指数公司将对指数 样本做出必要的临时调整。 指数的临时调仓通常比较少见。 (2) 定期调仓 具体的频率和时间，以及对应的代表指 数,如下图所示: | 定期调仓的频率 | 定期调整的时间 | 代表指数 | | --- | --- | --- | | 每季度调整 | 每年3月、6月、9月和12月的第 | 科创50、科创100、 | | | 二个星期五的下一交易日 | 中证全指自由现金流等 | | 每半年调整 | 每年6月和12月的第二个星期五 | 沪深300、中证500、中证 | | | 的下一交易日 | 1000、中证2000等 | | 每年调整 | 每年12月的第二个星期五的下 | 中证红利、上证红利等 | | | 一交易日 | | 对中证等系列的指数,每次调仓,通常 是在6月和12月份第二个周五之后。 不同指数,调合频率也会有区别。 例如沪深300、中证500指数,都是6月 和12月调仓一次。相关的300价值、500 低波动指数,也是如此。 不过像中证红利、上证红利指数，就是 依据样本稳定性和动态跟踪相结合的原 则 ...

王浩认为，择时的主要目标是提升投资组合的收益风险比，可能是提升收益，也可能是规避一些极端风 险，以降低回撤或波动。因此，对于波动相对较大的权益资产而言，择时是有意义的。"与成熟市场相 比，新兴市场的股票资产整体波动更大，因此择时的必要性也更高。"他表示。 广发基金王浩： "发车"顺势而为 灵活把握结构性机会 ◎记者 聂林浩 11月以来，股票市场宽幅震荡、行业轮动加速，令不少投资者在"长期持有"与"频繁交易"之间难以抉 择。近日，上海证券报记者采访了广发基金资产配置部基金经理、"指数100份"基金投顾组合策略投资 经理王浩，试图解答投资是否需要择时这一问题。 "择时其实是一种敬畏市场、顺势而为的工具，但要基于科学的决策。"王浩表示，在"指数100份"的管 理中，每一笔投入都是基于当下的市场行情来选择适合的标的，并单独监控每一笔"发车"的止盈点。如 果团队判断市场缺乏较好的机会，宁愿选择按兵不动，这也正是"发车式"基金投顾组合策略与传统定投 的区别。 择时的本质是敬畏市场、顺势而为 桥水创始人达利欧曾说："最重要的事情并不是预知未来，而是知道在每一个时间点上如何针对可获得 的信息作出合理的回应。"在王浩看来，长期 ...

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices experienced slight increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.21% to 3883.46 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.72% to 12967.66 points, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.71% to 3052.87 points [1] ETF Performance - The top-performing ETF on November 27, 2025, was the Brazil ETF (520870), which saw a gain of 3.17%. Other notable performers included the Brazil ETF (159100) with a 2.64% increase, the S&P Biotechnology ETF (159502) rising by 2.58%, and the China-Korea Chip ETF (513310) up by 2.08% [2][3] - The largest decline was observed in the Software 30 ETF (562930), which fell by 1.90%. Other ETFs with significant declines included the Online ETF (159793) down by 1.69%, and the Film and Television ETFs (516620 and 159855) both decreasing by 1.63% [2][3] Trading Volume - The highest trading volume on November 27, 2025, was recorded for the Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330) at 62.04 million shares. Other ETFs with high trading volumes included the Hang Seng Technology ETF (513130) at 60.22 million shares, and the Hang Seng Index Technology ETF (513180) at 54.56 million shares [4] Trading Amount - The largest trading amount was for the Hong Kong Securities ETF (513090), with a transaction value of 7.009 billion yuan. Other ETFs with significant trading amounts included the A500 ETF (512050) at 6.103 billion yuan, and the HK Innovation Drug ETF (513120) at 5.444 billion yuan [5] Fund Flows - The largest net subscription on November 27, 2025, was for the 50 ETF (510050), with a net subscription amount of 658 million yuan. Other notable subscriptions included the A500 ETF (512050) at 580 million yuan, and the ChiNext 50 ETF (159949) at 270 million yuan [6] - The largest net redemption was for the ChiNext ETF (159915), with a redemption amount of 717 million yuan. Other significant redemptions included the 500 ETF (510500) at 553 million yuan, and the AI ChiNext ETF (159382) at 516 million yuan [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that trading success is a collective effort of the team, highlighting the importance of discipline and adherence to a predetermined trading plan [1] - The team achieved success through a combination of strategic determination and tactical flexibility, focusing on a "defensive first, offensive second" approach and timely execution based on volatility cycles [1][2] - The trading strategy during the competition was primarily based on "trend following and sector rotation," utilizing options for hedging, which allowed for enhanced returns during market upswings and protection during downturns [1][2] Group 2 - The market characteristics this year include uncertainty in direction, increased event-driven trading, and fluctuating volatility cycles, leading the team to focus on volatility pricing and risk exposure management rather than directional predictions [2][3] - The team concentrated on specific sectors such as the Sci-Tech 50, non-ferrous metals, gold, crude oil, agricultural products, and the Hang Seng Tech Index, selecting these based on long-term fundamentals and liquidity [2] - The entry timing strategy is based on fundamental analysis for direction and technical analysis for timing, with a focus on market sentiment and volatility levels [3] Group 3 - Risk control is implemented through a dual system of "hard stop-loss" and "logical stop-loss," with options serving as both a stop-loss tool and a means of risk transfer [3] - The company emphasizes the importance of withdrawing principal after significant gains to maintain a healthy trading mindset, advocating for diversified positions and gradual building of positions [3] - The futures market is viewed as a platform for self-improvement and understanding, where successful investing relies on decisive actions at critical moments rather than frequent trading [4]

Group 1 - The article discusses various investment styles, particularly focusing on "deep growth" stocks, which are less common in funds but prevalent in new stocks on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the ChiNext Board [4] - "Growth" style stocks are characterized by high revenue and profit growth, often trading at significantly higher valuations than the market average, with typical price-to-earnings ratios ranging from 40 to 50 times [6][7] - "Growth value" style stocks are in a mature phase with slowing revenue growth but can maintain profitability through cost control, often represented by high ROE stocks in sectors like consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, and technology [8][10] Group 2 - "Deep value" style stocks show stable dividends and high dividend yields, with performance expected to be strong from 2022 to 2024, reflecting a trend of style rotation in the A-share market [11][12] - The article highlights a historical performance pattern where growth styles dominated from 2019 to 2021, while value styles are expected to be strong from 2022 to 2024, with a potential shift back to growth styles in 2025 [12][13] - Understanding the characteristics of different styles allows for strategic adjustments in portfolio allocation based on valuation opportunities [12]

Group 1 - The CSI A500 Index experienced a slight decline of 0.05% this week, closing at 5583.72 points as of October 31 [1] - The average daily trading volume for the week was 8921.90 billion, with a week-on-week increase of 37.23% [1] - Among the 40 CSI A500 ETFs, only the Guotai Fund's CSI A500 Enhanced ETF saw a decrease of 0.5%, while the Huaan Fund's CSI A500 Enhanced ETF increased by 0.95% [1] Group 2 - The total scale of A500 ETFs has returned to over 2000 billion, with the top three funds being Huatai-PineBridge, E Fund, and Guotai, with scales of 254.98 billion, 234.41 billion, and 224.57 billion respectively [1] - According to Xinda Securities, by Q3 2025, a market recovery is expected, leading to profit-taking trends in broad indices like the Sci-Tech 50 and CSI 300, while ETF funds will continue to favor Hong Kong stocks and certain low-position sectors [1] - Significant net outflows exceeding 100 billion are concentrated in core broad-based and growth sectors, including the Sci-Tech 50, CSI 300, CSI A500, and others [1][2] Group 3 - Guojin Securities has raised net profit forecasts for the years 2025 and 2026 across major indices, including the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and ChiNext Index, while the CSI 500 saw mixed adjustments [2] - The profit forecasts for large/mid-cap growth/value styles have been increased for 2025 and 2026, whereas small-cap growth forecasts have been lowered [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market has shown a strong performance, with major indices rising, including the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3900 points and the ChiNext Index increasing by 2.92% [3] - Despite the index gains, trading volume has significantly decreased by 19.5%, indicating a "shrinking rally" pattern [4] Capital Flow Dynamics - There is a disconnect between rising indices and the reluctance of new capital to enter the market, suggesting a cautious approach from investors [5] - Recent developments, such as the resumption of Sino-U.S. trade talks and the approval of the "14th Five-Year Plan," have positively influenced market sentiment [6] Policy and Investment Focus - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes investment in technology, particularly in artificial intelligence and critical areas like quantum technology and solid-state batteries [7] - The policy direction aims to enhance technological independence and resource security, which could lead to significant investment opportunities in these sectors [7] Stock Performance and Investor Sentiment - The market is experiencing a stark divergence in stock performance, with certain sectors like telecommunications and non-ferrous metals seeing gains over 25%, while financials and real estate lag behind [9] - The volatility in technology stocks indicates a short-term speculative environment, with significant capital inflows and outflows observed [9] Investment Strategies - With over 5000 stocks available, identifying reliable investment opportunities is challenging, leading to a preference for index funds [10] - As of the end of Q1 2025, the scale of passive index funds has surpassed 3.26 trillion yuan, accounting for 51.11% of A-share market capitalization [10] Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign capital inflows into the Chinese stock market have rebounded, with a net inflow of 4.6 billion USD in September 2025, marking the highest monthly figure since November 2024 [12] - Projections indicate a potential 30% upside for A-shares by the end of 2027, driven by earnings growth and valuation re-rating [12]

Core Viewpoint - The current market trend is structurally similar to the period from 2013 to 2017, with notable increases in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks since 2025, although not all sectors have risen uniformly [3][4][8]. Group 1: Market Comparison - The current market resembles the 2013-2017 period, characterized by a weak fundamental backdrop and declining corporate profits [7][8]. - In 2014, significant interest rate cuts stimulated the market, leading to a rapid increase in A-shares [5][6]. - The leading sectors during the previous bull market included financial stocks, followed by small-cap and growth styles, which eventually reached bubble valuations [6][10]. Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - The current market has seen a resurgence in small-cap stocks and growth styles, driven by declining interest rates and a recovery in certain sectors [9][50]. - Key sectors that have experienced significant gains include banking, Hong Kong pharmaceuticals, small-cap indices like 北证50, 科创50, and military industry indices, all of which have reached high valuations at various points [19][22][50]. - The banking index, for instance, saw a notable increase in Q2 2025, reaching high valuation levels before experiencing a pullback [20][21]. Group 3: Valuation Insights - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical index experienced substantial profit growth, with a year-on-year increase of 172.89% in Q1 2025, followed by a 59.75% growth in Q2 [23][22]. - Small-cap indices like 中证1000 and 中证2000 also reached high valuation levels, influenced by increased market liquidity due to lower interest rates [27][28]. - The 科创50 and 创业板 indices have shown strong performance, with significant profit growth rates of 30.79% in Q1 2025 and 13.39% in Q2 [34][30]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Perspective - The core source of long-term returns in equity investments is the growth in corporate profits, rather than just valuation changes [51][40]. - The formula for stock index fund returns emphasizes that net asset value is driven by valuation, earnings, and dividends, with long-term profit growth being the primary engine for returns [40][42]. - Historical data indicates that even in bear markets, the bottom points of indices can rise due to underlying profit growth, independent of valuation levels [42][46].