特朗普政府计划利用五角大楼开发的人工智能项目，为关键矿产制定参考价格，以支撑其构建全球金属贸易集团的计划 。 据媒体24日援引三位知情人士报道，上述参考价格将由美国国防部"国家安全开放价格探索"（OPEN）AI金属项目负责制定。此前，副总统JD Vance本月提议美国与逾50个国家在关键矿产各生产环节共同设立参考价格，并辅以"可调关税"作为价格保障机制。 报道称，特朗普官员初步将OPEN的AI定价模型聚焦于锗、镓、锑和钨四种关键矿产，随后将逐步扩大覆盖范围，S&P Global和芬兰数据公司 Rovjok将提供数据及技术支持。 此举揭示了特朗普政府试图主动介入关键矿产定价的路径，但AI技术能否切实重塑矿产买卖模式，仍存在广泛质疑。参考价格的实施时间表目前 尚不明朗——特朗普政府须首先说服数十个盟国加入贸易集团，方能确保机制的实际效力。消息公布后，基本金属价格拉升，伦锡涨超4%，伦镍 涨近4%，伦铜涨超2%。 关税的征收范围同样存在疑问——是否适用于所有含关键矿产的终端产品。以锂为例，美国阴极产业规模较小，对锂的自身需求目前有限，但含 锂离子电池的笔记本电脑却是美国的进口商品，而制造商历来倾向于以最低价格采购矿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is preparing to launch the world's first rare earth futures contract, despite the U.S. lacking significant rare earth production and stockpiles. This move aims to provide Western companies with a hedging tool against price volatility and to challenge China's dominance in the rare earth market [1][4][5]. Group 1: CME's Strategic Intent - CME's initiative is designed to address the financing challenges faced by Western rare earth mining companies, which are deterred by unpredictable price fluctuations. By offering futures contracts, CME hopes to enable banks to lend to these companies, thereby stimulating the rare earth supply chain in the West [4][10]. - The futures contract aims to establish a pricing benchmark independent of the Chinese market, which currently controls approximately 70% of global rare earth production and over 90% of refining capacity. This would allow Western companies to reference CME prices instead of relying on Chinese market prices [5][7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Challenges - The price of neodymium-praseodymium oxide, a key material for high-performance magnets, has experienced extreme volatility, with a 50% drop followed by a 41% increase within a short period. This volatility exemplifies the risks that deter Western banks from financing new rare earth projects [3][4]. - Analysts express skepticism about the viability of the CME's futures contract due to potential delivery issues, regulatory risks, and the limited time frame for establishing a functional market. The U.S. currently produces only 12% to 15% of global rare earths, heavily relying on China for processing [8][10]. Group 3: China's Response and Market Control - China is likely to respond to CME's plans, as it holds significant leverage over the rare earth market. The Chinese government can manipulate export quotas or tighten environmental regulations to disrupt supply, undermining the effectiveness of any new futures contracts [7][10]. - The potential for CME's futures market to become illiquid is high if Chinese producers do not participate, which could render the contract ineffective for price discovery [7][10].

Core Viewpoint - The rare earth market is experiencing significant price increases, driven by tight supply and strong downstream demand, with a focus on investment opportunities in the sector [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The three major indices opened slightly lower, while the China Rare Earth Industry Index rose by 2.17%, with key stocks like Shenghe Resources up by 8.16% and Yunlu Co. up by 7.83% [1]. - The China Rare Earth Price Index reached 265.43, reflecting an 11.37% increase over the past two weeks, with praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices rising by 12.64% [1]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Guoyuan Securities suggests focusing on investment opportunities that combine "resources and high elasticity," particularly in light of potential supply disruptions from major overseas resource countries and the recovery of domestic demand [1]. - China Chengxin International forecasts that the non-ferrous metals industry will maintain high prosperity in 2026, driven by investments in power grids, renewable energy, and AI-related sectors, which will also benefit strategic metals like rare earths [2]. Group 3: ETF and Investment Tools - The Jiashi Rare Earth ETF (516150) closely tracks the China Rare Earth Industry Index, providing a convenient tool for investors to gain exposure to the domestic rare earth industry chain [3]. - Investors can also utilize the Jiashi Rare Earth ETF linked fund (011036) to capitalize on rare earth investment opportunities [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-02-12 一、 宏观数据速览 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 15 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 二、商品投资参考 综合 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.3 | 49.0 | 49.1 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 49.4 | 50.1 | 50.2 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 22075 | 35299 | 28537 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M0:同比 | % | 10.2 | 11.5 | 13.0 | ...