2025年10月，印度洋上一艘货轮正载着两吨闪着金属光泽的稀土矿石驶向美国。这笔价值5亿美元的"破冰合作"，被美巴双方吹上了天 ——巴铁想靠新建的帕斯尼港吸引美国资本，让自家矿石直通欧美；美国则盘算着"摆脱中国依赖"，在阿拉伯海沿岸插旗。但热闹背 后，一个尴尬的问题被刻意忽略：这些矿石，可能连手机震动马达的标准都达不到。 为啥？因为稀土的价值从来不在"石头"本身。从矿山到磁材，需要经历"提纯—分离—冶炼—加工"的复杂链条，而全球70%的高纯度稀 土产能、几乎所有高端磁材技术，都牢牢攥在中国手里。巴基斯坦矿业部门的内部报告早就认了怂："我们没设备、没技术，连稳定生产 都难。" 这就好比有人捧着一堆铁矿喊"要造芯片"——缺的不是矿石，是从炼钢到光刻的整条技术链。中国商务部10月9日突然甩出的"第六十二 号公告"，恰恰掐住了这个命门：即日起，稀土相关技术出口全面管控，从生产线调试到工艺参数支持，一个都不让走。 二、从"抢矿石"到"卡技术"：中国用十年织成一张网 很多人没注意，这次"技术管控"不是临时起意，而是中国稀土战略的"最后一块拼图"。早在2024年底，镓、锗等关键金属就被纳入出口 许可；今年4月，中重稀土也戴 ...

Group 1 - The core issue is the ongoing tension between the US and China regarding rare earth supplies, particularly in the military sector, despite some trade resumption after the June negotiations [1][3] - The US exported 4,719 tons of rare earth ore to China in July, but only received 619 tons of processed rare earths back, highlighting a significant supply chain dependency on China [3] - China has tightened its export controls on rare earth mining and processing, issuing new regulations that strengthen quantity limits and export audits, which could further complicate US access to these materials [5][8] Group 2 - Trump's threats of imposing a 200% tariff on Chinese rare earths are unlikely to change the short-term dependency of the US on Chinese supplies, as the US lacks the necessary refining technology [7] - Although some civilian rare earth exports to the US have resumed, China retains control over the refining speed and export approval process, indicating potential delays in delivery [8]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Defense has become the largest shareholder of MP Materials by investing $400 million to reduce reliance on China for rare earth processing, highlighting a significant shift in strategy amidst China's dominance in the sector [1][5][39]. Group 1: Investment and Market Reaction - MP Materials' stock surged by 50% following the announcement of the $400 million investment from the Pentagon [3][5]. - The investment comes after a drastic 75% drop in China's rare earth exports, which has raised concerns among U.S. electric vehicle manufacturers and defense contractors [5][7]. Group 2: U.S.-China Dependency - Historically, MP Materials has relied on China for 65% of its business, selling raw materials to China for processing and then purchasing finished products back [1][8]. - The Pentagon's investment aims to eliminate this dependency, with MP Materials promising to establish a domestic production facility for rare earth magnets by 2028 [10]. Group 3: Technological and Competitive Landscape - China currently holds 90% of global rare earth processing capacity and has achieved a separation purity of 99.9999%, far surpassing U.S. capabilities, which are still stuck in the 1970s [13][15]. - The U.S. faces a significant technological gap, with experts estimating it could take at least 20 years and an investment of $5 trillion to catch up [17][19]. Group 4: Global Supply Chain Dynamics - The U.S. is attempting to build a coalition with allies like Japan and Australia to create an independent rare earth supply chain, but these countries also rely on China for their own needs [21][27]. - China's recent cooperation with Russia to establish a new supply chain further complicates the U.S. efforts to reduce reliance on Chinese rare earths [27]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Challenges - The next 2-3 years may see a price war as China leverages its production advantages against newly established U.S. companies, which may struggle with higher costs [29][31]. - Long-term success for the U.S. in achieving rare earth independence will depend on technological breakthroughs and stable policies, with significant costs likely to be passed on to consumers [35][37].