能源金属 2026 年度投资策略 20251229 摘要 碳酸锂市场供需逆转，储能需求超预期增长叠加供给侧调整推动价格上 涨，期货价格一度达到 13 万元。预计未来两年受益于储能需求和供给 侧调整，2026 年后行业资本开支减少导致产能投放减少，中国在全球 供应占比将提升。 2026 年碳酸锂供应量预计在 205-210 万吨左右，产能弹性有限。需求 主要由动力电池和储能驱动，预计动力电池增速 15-20%，储能增速 50%，可能出现小幅过剩，但产业链低库存或将缓解过剩程度，看好 2026 年价格上涨。 预计碳酸锂价格突破 15 万元是大概率事件，但需关注供给释放节奏和 需求端接受程度。当前金属价格已达 12-13 万元左右，即使考虑波动也 已超过 10 万元以上，看好整个板块权益投资机会。 镍市场供给高度集中，印尼政策调整对镍矿供应产生影响，镍价底部修 复预期强烈。RKA b 政策配额调整将导致供应紧张，预计对供给端影响 在 10-15%左右，有助于改善行业过剩幅度。 Q&A 能否概述一下 2025 年碳酸锂市场的整体表现及其主要驱动因素？ 2025 年，碳酸锂市场经历了显著波动。年初价格从最高点的 60 ...

来源：自然资源部 据矿业周刊（Mining Weekly）报道，伦敦上市企业彭萨纳公司（Pensana）已完成一笔1亿美元的战略投 资者认购，这笔资金将用于公司从矿山到磁体的战略实施。 根据协议，上述战略投资者已认购9500万股普通股票，但仍需对安哥拉的隆贡若（Longonjo）稀土项目 开展尽职调查，并获得股东对股份发行的授权以及对向该战略投资者分配股份的批准。 除了上述1亿美元投资外，公司将向机构投资者配售285万股新普通股，总对价为300万美元。 彭萨纳公司董事长保罗·阿瑟利（Paul Atherley）表示，很高兴获得1亿美元的战略投资，我们从矿山到 磁体的供应链计划得到了战略投资者的支持。 这笔融资将用于隆贡若的矿山建设，同时用于补充勘探，以扩大该矿的开采年限，使其成为世界最大的 稀土矿之一。同时，支持公司在纳斯达克上市。 阿瑟利表示，隆贡若的建设顺利，公司的大股东安哥拉主权财富基金（FSDEA）最近提前支付了2500 万美元贷款的剩余款项。 "一旦在2027年投产，隆贡若将成为世界最大稀土生产矿山之一，能够支撑1万吨稀土永磁的生产"。 北欧独立投资银行ABG Sundal Collier担任彭萨纳 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 09 日 核心结论 分析师 【策略】2026 年机械行业年度投资策略：聚四海星火，淬国之重器——全 面为国产算力生产配套 AI 驱动全球半导体大周期，国内算力芯片和存储芯片资本支出需求旺盛，国 产半导体设备预计深度受益 晨会纪要 【国内政策】"十五五"规划指标体系前瞻：五年规划"导航图"将如何引 领发展方向？ 预计"十五五"时期的指标体系将建立在"十四五"指标体系的基础之上， 与十四五期间的指标体系相比，或出现指标范围扩大、指标项目创新、指标 数据更新升级等变化；总体精神与方向将同国家战略导向共振，可能在国民 经济、民生福祉、安全保障等领域会出现部分指标的调整并新设数个指标， 从而引导未来经济与社会发展。 【煤炭】中国神华（601088.SH）首次覆盖报告：煤炭龙头，能源航母 预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 543.88 亿、558.78 亿、575.04 亿，EPS 分别为 2.74、2.81、2.89 元，同比增长-7.30%、2.74%、2.91%。 考虑 DDM 估值方法，给予公司目标价 48.96 元/股。首次覆盖，给予"增持" 评级。 【总量 ...

Core Viewpoint - China is the largest country in the world in terms of rare earth resources, mining, production, and consumption, possessing a complete rare earth industry chain advantage [1] Group 1: Rare Earth Resources - According to USGS data, China's rare earth resource reserves account for approximately 40% of global totals, with a geographical distribution that is rich in medium and heavy rare earth resources, which have higher strategic value [1] Group 2: Market Demand - Rare earth permanent magnets are the largest consumption area for rare earths, experiencing rapid growth [1] - The demand for high-performance neodymium-iron-boron materials is most significantly driven by the electric vehicle sector, which is expected to account for about 50% of future demand [1] - Due to the rapid growth in sectors such as electric vehicles, energy-saving motors, and wind power generation, it is projected that the demand for high-performance neodymium-iron-boron magnetic materials will reach 212,000 tons by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 13% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of RMB 19.73 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [2][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 58.18 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, a slight decrease of 0.60% year-on-year. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 2.82 billion, down 17.19% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit, excluding non-recurring items, was RMB 2.56 billion, showing a growth of 11.39% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 21.04 billion, up 8.92% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 0.94 billion, up 58.31% year-on-year [5][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company’s gross margin was 17.21%, a decrease of 0.68 percentage points year-on-year. The overall expense ratio was 11.65%, down 1.26 percentage points year-on-year, indicating effective cost control measures [10][11]. - The company’s net profit margin for the first three quarters was 5.28%, down 1.53 percentage points year-on-year [10]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The report adjusts the revenue forecast for 2025-2027 to RMB 81.81 billion, RMB 91.45 billion, and RMB 103.23 billion, respectively. The net profit forecast for the same period is RMB 3.37 billion, RMB 4.01 billion, and RMB 4.79 billion, respectively. The expected EPS for 2025-2027 is RMB 0.32, RMB 0.38, and RMB 0.46, with corresponding P/E ratios of 61.5, 51.7, and 43.3 times [7][9]. Business Focus and Growth Potential - The company is a leader in the advanced metal new materials sector, focusing on "refractory tungsten and molybdenum" and "rare earth permanent magnets." It is also actively developing emerging businesses such as special powders and controlled nuclear fusion, which are expected to benefit from increasing downstream demand [5][7].

Group 1: Market Overview - The market is expected to continue high-level fluctuations due to a "policy window" period following the Fourth Plenary Session and new US-China negotiations, with a focus on the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference [2][3] - Economic fundamentals are showing marginal slowdown, with October retail sales expected to grow by approximately 2.9% year-on-year, while fixed asset investment is projected to decline by 0.7% [4][25] - The central bank's indication of restoring open market operations for government bonds signals a marginal easing of monetary policy, which may lead to a "stock-bond seesaw" effect if interest rates decline [3][17] Group 2: Industry Configuration - The AI industry remains a core focus, with adjustments providing opportunities for a new round of technology market trends, while sectors with strong performance support, such as energy storage/batteries, military industry, storage, and engineering machinery, are also highlighted [5][39] - The first main line of investment is to continue to focus on the AI industry chain, particularly in computing power (CPO/PCB/liquid cooling/optical fiber) and application sectors (robots/games/software), which are expected to maintain a clear trend of growth [39][41] - The second main line includes sectors with solid performance support, such as electric power equipment (energy storage/batteries), military industry, storage, and engineering machinery, which are anticipated to benefit from high demand and ongoing improvements in performance [39][41]

Core Viewpoint - Antai Technology is a leading domestic advanced metal new materials company, focusing on the research, production, and sales of advanced metal new materials and products, with technological leadership in areas such as refractory tungsten and molybdenum, and rare earth permanent magnets [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Antai Technology achieved operating revenue of 5.818 billion yuan, ranking 3rd in the industry, surpassing the industry average of 3.023 billion yuan and the median of 1.632 billion yuan [2] - The company's net profit for the same period was 307 million yuan, ranking 2nd in the industry, exceeding the industry average of 127 million yuan and the median of 60.79 million yuan [2] Profitability and Debt Ratios - As of Q3 2025, Antai Technology's debt-to-asset ratio was 44.00%, slightly above the industry average of 43.99% [3] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 17.21%, higher than the industry average of 15.62% [3] Executive Compensation - The chairman, Li Junfeng, received a salary of 837,100 yuan in 2024, an increase of 64,100 yuan from 2023 [4] - The general manager, Bi Linsheng, also received a salary of 837,100 yuan in 2024, reflecting the same increase as the chairman [4] Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders decreased by 6.66% to 78,400 [5] - The average number of circulating A-shares held per household increased by 7.14% to 13,200 [5] Market Insights - Tianfeng Securities noted that while there were fluctuations in revenue and net profit in H1 2025, the non-recurring net profit showed year-on-year growth, with significant contract growth in high-end medical equipment and semiconductor sectors [6] - Zheshang Securities highlighted Antai Technology's dual-driven growth from refractory tungsten and rare earth permanent magnets, with a projected revenue CAGR of 21% from 2024 to 2027 [7]

Market Overview - A-shares showed strong upward movement, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 4000 points, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.74% [1] - The 90-day tariff truce between China and the U.S. is set to end on November 9, with critical trade talks scheduled from October 24 to 27 in Malaysia [1] - The outcome of these negotiations will significantly influence the potential for a meeting between the Chinese and U.S. leaders during the APEC conference [1] Economic Growth and Policy Directions - The Chinese government aims for a compound annual GDP growth rate of over 4.7% over the next decade, targeting a per capita GDP level of a moderately developed country by 2035 [2] - The focus is on high-tech industries, with plans for the "new economy" to account for over 18% of GDP by 2024, emphasizing the development of advanced algorithms and high-performance chips [2] Semiconductor Sector - Companies like Huahong Semiconductor and SMIC saw significant stock price increases due to their high exposure to the semiconductor market, with Huahong rising over 13% [3] - The U.S. semiconductor equipment manufacturer Applied Materials plans to cut 4% of its global workforce, indicating challenges in the sector [3] AI and Autonomous Driving - NVIDIA announced a partnership with Uber to develop autonomous driving technology, which positively impacted Uber's stock price [4] - Companies involved in AI and advanced manufacturing, such as Black Sesame Technologies, also experienced stock price increases [4] Agricultural and Infrastructure Development - The modernization of agriculture and rural areas is highlighted as a priority, with significant investment needs projected for underground pipeline construction [5] - China Liansu, a key player in plastic pipes, is expected to benefit from this infrastructure push, with its stock rising over 8% [6] Aerospace and Commercial Space - The recent emphasis on becoming a "space power" in China's policy indicates a growing focus on commercial space development, with increased competition with the U.S. [7] - Companies involved in aerospace, such as Interstellar Aerospace Technology and Asia-Pacific Satellite, are positioned to benefit from this trend [8] Company Performance - Jinli Permanent Magnet reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit, driven by strong demand in the electric vehicle and energy-efficient air conditioning sectors [9] - The company is expanding its production capacity and is well-positioned to benefit from rising rare earth material prices [9]

以下文章来源于张湧说财经 ，作者Peter Zhang 前瞻的视角、通俗的语言、深刻的洞见、大众的立场 作者： Peter Zhang 来源： 张湧说财经 -------------------------------- 稀土对现代科技的重要性，可能要比大部分人想象的更大； 而中国对稀土产业链的控制力，也要比大部分人想象得更加强大。 张湧说财经 . 这就是为什么，稀土这个事，能引起如此广泛关注的核心逻辑链条。 01 稀土重要，主要是因为磁铁很重要。 稀土并不是制作磁铁的材料，而是可以改变磁铁性能的一种" 添加剂 "。 普通的磁铁存在遇热软化、容易消磁、磁力弱等问题，添加了稀土之后，这些弱点就能得到克服。 也就是我们常说的"稀土永磁"。 经过稀土加强之后的磁铁，才能应用到电动汽车、风能发电、手机、耳机等上面； 尤其是一些传感器离不开稀土，传感器是用于感知声、光、温度等信号的器件，在机器人领域不可 或缺； 制造芯片的光刻机也需要精密的磁力控制； 还有军事领域，比如航空发动机、火箭推进器、军用飞机、声纳装置…… 上面这些领域的共同点就是，都是高科技领域，并且都离不开稀土"加持"之后的磁铁。 一般的金属，比如金银铜， ...

Group 1 - The company, Yongdian Dongci (002056.SZ), is primarily engaged in the production of ferrite magnetic materials, metal magnetic powder cores, nano-crystals, and related magnetic devices [2] - To meet customer demand for one-stop procurement, the company also purchases some rare earth permanent magnets from partners for resale [2] - The company holds the largest global market share in ferrite permanent magnets and ferrite soft magnets, with applications in home appliances, automotive, consumer electronics, new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and AI servers [2]