事件：近日，特步国际公布2025H1 业绩，收入同比增长7.1%，归母净利润同比增长21.5%，略超我们 预期。此外，公司宣派股息18 港仙/股，派息率为50%。综合考虑，我们上调2025-2027 年EPS 至 0.55/0.62/0.68 元（人民币，下同，列明除外），目标价7.16 港元，维持"买入"评级。 报告摘要 机构：国证国际 研究员：杨怡然 风险提示：宏观经济下行；行业竞争加剧；新品牌发展不及预期。 收入利润均实现持续增长，专业运动分部表现亮眼。上半年，集团录得收入68.38 亿元，同比增长 7.1%。分品牌来看，大众运动分部（特步主品牌）收入同比增长4.5%至60.53 亿元，占收入比为 88.5%，主要是由电商渠道的增长所驱动，电商同比实现双位数增长，占收入比超3 成；专业运动（索 康尼+迈乐）收入同比增长32.5%至7.85 亿元，占收入比11.5%，主要是线下零售表现强劲所带动，线下 同店实现双位数增长。毛利率方面，集团毛利率下滑0.3pp至43.6%，其中主品牌毛利率下滑0.3pp 至 43.6%，专业运动毛利率下滑1.6pp至55.2%，主要是由于线上占比提升以及毛利率相对较低的服装 ...

SDICSI 2025 年 8 月 20 日 特步国际 (1368.HK) 电商持续驱动，索康尼继续高增长 风险提示：宏观经济下行；行业竞争加剧；新品牌发展不及预期。 财务及估值摘要 | (年结 31/3；RMB 百万) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 12,743 | 13,577 | 14,520 | 15,830 | 16,991 | | 增长率（%） | 10.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 7.3% | | 归母净利润 | 1,030 | 1,238 | 1,402 | 1,563 | 1,718 | | 增长率（%） | 11.8% | 20.2% | 13.2% | 11.5% | 9.9% | | 毛利率（%） | 41.8% | 43.2% | 43.2% | 43.6% | 43.9% | | 归母净利率（%） | 8.1% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 10.1% | | 每股盈利（元） | 0.41 | 0 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][32][34] Core Views - The company reported a 7.1% year-on-year revenue growth to 6.84 billion RMB and a 21.5% increase in net profit to 910 million RMB for the first half of 2025, driven by improved profitability in ongoing operations and reduced losses from the divestment of KP [1][9] - The main brand showed steady growth with a 4.5% increase in revenue to 6.05 billion RMB, while the professional sports brands (Saucony and Merrell) experienced a significant 32.5% revenue growth to 790 million RMB [2][22] - The company is focusing on Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) strategies, planning to open 100-200 DTC stores in 2025 and a total of 300-400 by 2026, with a capital expenditure of approximately 400 million RMB [3][31] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 6.84 billion RMB, with a net profit of 910 million RMB, reflecting a 22% increase in net profit [1][9] - The gross margin remained stable, with a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [1][14] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 0.18 HKD per share, maintaining a payout ratio of 50% [1][16] Brand Performance - The main brand's revenue grew by 4.5% to 6.05 billion RMB, with e-commerce channel revenue increasing by double digits [2][21] - The professional sports segment saw a revenue increase of 32.5% to 790 million RMB, with a significant improvement in operating profit margin [2][22] Market Strategy - The company is enhancing channel management and implementing a DTC strategy to adapt to market changes, which may have a short-term impact on revenue and profit margins but is expected to benefit long-term growth [3][31] - The focus on the running category is anticipated to drive steady growth for the main brand, while professional sports brands are expected to maintain rapid growth and improve profitability [32][34] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 1.4 billion RMB, 1.49 billion RMB, and 1.6 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.2%, 5.9%, and 7.7% [32][33] - The reasonable valuation range is set at 6.1 to 6.6 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 11-12x for 2025 [32][34]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company's main brand retail revenue showed low single-digit growth year-on-year in Q2 2025, while the Saucony brand achieved over 20% year-on-year growth [2][3] - The retail discount for Q2 2025 remained healthy at 70-75%, consistent with Q1 2025 [3] - The company is focusing on a direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategy, which may have short-term negative impacts on sales but is expected to enhance brand loyalty and retention in the long term [4] Summary by Sections Event Overview - In Q2 2025, the main brand's retail revenue experienced low single-digit growth year-on-year, with discounts ranging from 70% to 75%. The Saucony brand saw retail sales growth exceeding 20% year-on-year [2] Analysis and Judgments - The main brand's retail revenue growth slowed from mid-single digits in Q1 2025 to low single digits in Q2 2025. The retail discount remained stable compared to previous quarters, indicating a healthy pricing strategy [3] - Saucony and another brand, Myle, benefited from their superior performance in professional running and outdoor segments, with Saucony's retail growth slowing to about 20% in Q2 2025, down from approximately 40% in Q1 2025 due to adjustments in e-commerce strategy [3] Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to continue expanding its product matrix and open around 30 new Saucony stores throughout the year. The sale of the KP brand is anticipated to reduce financial drag and allow a focus on three main brands [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 142.86 billion, 155.58 billion, and 172.51 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 13.74 billion, 15.11 billion, and 16.64 billion. The estimated EPS for these years is 0.50, 0.54, and 0.60 respectively, with PE ratios of 10, 9, and 8 [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 13.58 billion RMB for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.24 billion RMB, which is a 20.2% increase compared to the previous year [2] Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit margin of 9.1%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, after divesting the KP business [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 was 0.49 RMB, with a total dividend payout ratio of 138.2% [2] - The main brand's revenue showed a high single-digit growth in Q1, approximately 10% in Q2, mid-single-digit growth in Q3, and high single-digit growth in Q4, leading to an overall high single-digit growth for the year [2] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the revenue from the main brand and professional sports segments grew by 3.2% and 57.2%, respectively [3] - Revenue contributions by category were 59.3% from footwear, 38.5% from apparel, and 2.2% from accessories, with footwear revenue increasing by 15.9% and apparel decreasing by 5.7% [3] - E-commerce revenue for the main brand grew by approximately 20%, accounting for over 30% of the main brand's total revenue [3] Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin improved by 1.4 percentage points to 43.2% in 2024, with the professional sports segment's gross margin rising significantly due to acquisitions [4][5] - The operating profit margin for the company was 14.5%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, with the professional sports segment achieving a profit margin of 6.3%, up by 5.2 percentage points [5] Inventory and Cash Flow - Inventory at the end of 2024 decreased by 11.0% to 1.6 billion RMB, with inventory turnover days reduced by 22 days to 68 days [6] - Operating net cash flow for 2024 was 1.23 billion RMB, a decrease of 2.1% year-on-year [6]