Core Viewpoint - Yutong Bus experienced a decline in total sales in July 2025, with a total of 3,219 units sold, representing a month-on-month decrease of 4% and a year-on-year decrease of 46%. This aligns with the traditional off-season expectations [3][4]. Sales and Production Summary - In July, the production volume was 3,849 units, including an inventory increase of 630 units, leading to a total inventory increase of 722 units from January to July. The company operates on a sales-based production model, suggesting that the short-term inventory increase may be a preparation for future order deliveries [3][4]. - Overall, July production increased month-on-month, while sales decreased. The market has entered a traditional off-season, but based on Yutong's Q2 sales rhythm, August is expected to show a month-on-month growth in both exports and domestic sales, with September potentially being the peak month for quarterly sales [5]. Segment Performance - Sales across different vehicle segments showed a month-on-month decline, with light commercial vehicles (LCVs) seeing a year-on-year increase in sales proportion. In July 2025, the sales figures for large, medium, and light buses were 1,570, 943, and 706 units, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -21.22%, +8.39%, and +43.50%. Month-on-month changes were -52.68%, -43.87%, and -23.34%, respectively. The share of light commercial vehicles increased to 21.93%, up by 7.27 percentage points year-on-year, while the share of large and medium buses decreased by 6.37 percentage points month-on-month [6]. Market Expansion - Yutong's market share in Europe has steadily increased, with H1 2025 sales reaching 852 units and a market share of 16%, up from 14% in 2024. The European market continues to show positive trends. Additionally, Yutong signed a procurement agreement for 400 electric buses with a partner in Pakistan, marking the largest single order for new energy buses in the country, which will support sales growth in the second half of the year [7]. Financial Forecast - The company maintains its revenue forecast for 2025-2027 at 42.9 billion, 49.9 billion, and 56.7 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 15%, 16%, and 14%, respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 4.63 billion, 5.52 billion, and 6.68 billion yuan for the same period, with year-on-year growth of 12%, 19%, and 21%. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are 13, 11, and 9 times, respectively, and the company maintains a "buy" rating [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yutong Bus (600066) [1] Core Views - July sales showed a month-on-month decline, which is expected during the traditional off-season, and the company is likely building inventory for future demand [8] - The company reported a total sales volume of 3,219 units in July, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4% and a year-on-year decrease of 46% [8] - The company is adopting a "sales-driven production" model, indicating that the short-term inventory increase may be a preparation for future order fulfillment [8] - The report forecasts revenue growth for 2025-2027, with expected revenues of 429 billion, 499 billion, and 567 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 15%, 16%, and 14% respectively [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 46.3 billion, 55.2 billion, and 66.8 billion yuan for the same period, with year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 19%, and 21% respectively [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 27,042 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 24.05% [1] - The diluted EPS for 2023 is expected to be 0.82 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 31.28 [1] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 43,273 million yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 62.76% [9]

Core Viewpoint - Yutong Bus experienced a decline in sales in July, which is typical for the off-season, but the company is building inventory in preparation for future demand [1] Sales Performance - Total sales in July reached 3,219 units, representing a month-on-month decrease of 4% and a year-on-year decrease of 46% [1] - The production volume in July was 3,849 units, with an inventory increase of 630 units, leading to a total inventory increase of 722 units from January to July [1] Export and New Energy Vehicles - Exports in July totaled 920 units, showing a month-on-month increase of 46% but a year-on-year decrease of 57% [1] - New energy vehicle exports reached 100 units, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 335% but a year-on-year decrease of 75%, slightly exceeding expectations [1] Future Outlook - The production in July increased month-on-month, while sales decreased, indicating a typical seasonal trend [1] - Based on Q2 sales patterns, August is expected to see growth in both exports and domestic sales, with September potentially being the peak month for sales in the quarter [1] - A significant procurement agreement for 400 electric buses was signed with a partner in Pakistan, marking the largest single order for new energy buses in the country, which will support sales growth in the second half of the year [1]