Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current upward driver in the market mainly comes from the reduction of overseas supply of hardwood pulp, but this factor has basically been priced in. Port inventories are high and de - stocking is not smooth, with weak spot market transactions. Downstream demand is mainly for essential purchases, and paper mills' production profits are low, with a possibility of a lackluster peak season. The price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp continues to decline, and attention should be paid to the actual transaction price changes of hardwood pulp in the future. The strategy is to operate within a range, focusing on the support at the previous low, and lightly testing long positions near the previous low, with a stop - loss if it breaks through [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for pulp is 4900 - 5400 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 19.03% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 58.0% [2]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high softwood pulp inventories worried about price drops, they can short pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For papermaking enterprises with low inventories looking to purchase based on orders, they can buy pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance [2]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main contract closed at 5178 yuan/ton (-98). In the spot market, Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 5850 yuan/ton (+0), Shandong Russian Needle at 5200 yuan/ton (-100), and Shandong Jinyu at 4150 yuan/ton (-50). Chilean Arauco notified August prices, with a 50% reduction in supply for softwood pulp Yinxing at 720 US dollars/ton, hardwood pulp Mingxing at 520 US dollars/ton, and natural pulp Jinxing at 590 US dollars/ton. The spot market trading sentiment was poor, and downstream demand from paper mills remained weak [3]. 3.3 Market Data - **Futures Contracts**: On August 20, 2025, SP2509 was at 5096 yuan/ton (-100), SP2511 at 5136 yuan/ton (-42), and sp2601 at 5380 yuan/ton (-40) [8]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: Prices of various types of pulp such as softwood and hardwood pulp showed different degrees of decline. For example, the price of Shandong Russian Needle decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 5200 yuan/ton, and the price of Shandong Jinyu decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 4150 yuan/ton [8]. - **Domestic Finished Paper Average Prices**: The prices of some finished papers such as white cardboard and offset paper decreased. White cardboard decreased by 2.29% to 4260 yuan/ton, and offset paper decreased by 2.92% to 5533.33 yuan/ton [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The main contract closed at 5374 (-48) today, a decline of -0.89%. Technically, it's a retracement after a breakout [3] - The paper pulp's own fundamentals are not optimistic, with high supply and high inventory. The comprehensive production profit of the four major types of paper is low, the operating rate is low, and there is new production capacity coming online. There is a large short - term surplus pressure. The demand side cannot foresee a long - term significant increase [4] - Seasonally, after entering August, it gradually becomes the downstream consumption peak season, which will boost the demand for paper pulp to some extent. But currently, the downstream procurement willingness is not positive [4] - The previous rise in commodity sentiment drove up the futures and, to some extent, the spot prices. There will be a policy window period, and it will take time for specific policies to be implemented. The relatively weak fundamentals will restrain the rebound height. Technically, after retracing to the support level, one can go long with a light position [4] Group 3: Key Points from Different Sections Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price range forecast for paper pulp is 4900 - 5400, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 19.03%, and the current volatility's 3 - year historical percentile is 58.0% [2] - For inventory management, when the softwood pulp inventory is at a high level and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises can short paper pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at the entry range of 5200 - 5300 to lock in profits and cover production costs [2] - For procurement management, when the inventory of papermaking enterprises is low and they want to purchase according to orders, they can buy paper pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at the entry range of 4900 - 5100 to lock in procurement costs in advance [2] Market Quotes - On the spot side, the quotes in Shandong are: Silver Star at 5920 yuan/ton (+0), Russian Needle at 5450 yuan/ton (+0), and Goldfish at 4150 yuan/ton (+0) [3] - The futures quotes show different prices and changes for contracts like SP2509, SP2511, and sp2601 on July 29 - 30, 2025 [5] - The CFR quotes for softwood pulp and hardwood pulp on July 28, 2025, are 870 dollars/ton and 820 dollars/ton respectively [5][8] - Domestic spot prices of various types of pulp and finished paper have different price levels and changes on different dates [8] Industry Initiative - The Guangdong Paper Association issued an initiative to promote high - quality development in the paper industry by resisting malicious competition, optimizing capacity structure, and shifting to value - based competition, which has regional demonstration significance [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The pulp futures contract rebounded slightly today but remained weak. The demand side is in the traditional off - season, with downstream paper manufacturers' inventories piling up and low procurement willingness. The supply side shows high - level fluctuations in imports and falling import prices, especially a severe oversupply of hardwood pulp. The next demand peak is expected to start in mid - August, and large - scale restocking may occur after July. The pulp price is under downward pressure in a weak supply - demand environment, and the pulp futures are unlikely to have a continuous upward trend but have limited downside space [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Price Forecast and Hedging Strategy - The monthly price range of pulp is predicted to be between 4900 - 5400 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 24.32% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 79.5% [2]. - For inventory management, when the softwood pulp inventory is high, enterprises can short pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [2]. - For procurement management, when paper manufacturers' inventory is low, they can buy pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs [2]. Core Contradiction Analysis - The pulp futures are weak due to weak demand in the off - season and high - level supply. The next demand peak is expected in mid - August, and large - scale restocking may be after July. The pulp price faces downward pressure, and the futures are unlikely to rise continuously but have limited downside [3]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - The potential bullish factors include a significant strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate and the implementation of macro - policies [4]. - The bearish factor is the continuous decline of overseas pulp quotes. The report also lists the price changes of various pulp types and paper products, showing a general downward trend in pulp prices [5][7].