风险提示：供应端出现意外收缩 基本面持续偏弱，浆价震荡寻底 杨枭 首席分析师(化工) 从业资格号：F3034536 投资咨询号：Z0014525 行情回顾 三季度纸浆价格持续震荡 港口木浆库存高于往年同期 资料来源：iFind 资料来源：隆众资讯 4,200 4,700 5,200 5,700 6,200 6,700 7,200 24/01 24/04 24/07 24/10 25/01 25/04 25/07 元/吨 纸浆期货主力合约收盘价 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 2025 2024 2023 2022 万吨 u 港口库存持续高于往年同期凸显出了今年纸浆供需的疲软。在此情况下，三季度纸浆盘面整体偏弱，7月 反内卷带动商品整体上扬使得纸浆跟随上涨，但随着反内卷的退潮，纸浆再次跌回低位。 周 基本面分析——供给端 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月11月12 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The pulp fundamentals show no signs of repair, with no significant reduction in pulp port inventories and the number of warehouse receipts. It is expected to remain weak in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 12, 2025, SP2601 was 5300 with a daily increase of 0.64% and a weekly decrease of 0.34%; SP2511 was 5016 with a daily increase of 0.40% and a weekly decrease of 0.71%; SP2509 was 4960 with a daily increase of 0.45% and a weekly decrease of 0.68% [5] - **Spot Prices**: On September 12, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5650 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 1.22%; Russian Needle was 5170 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.58%; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4180 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.48% [5] - **Foreign Quotes**: The quote for Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, a monthly decrease of 2.70%; Japanese NBSK was 530 dollars, a monthly increase of 3.92%; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars with no monthly change [5] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, a monthly decrease of 2.68%; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, a monthly increase of 3.87%; Chilean Venus was 4830 with no monthly change [5] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply - Import Volume**: In July 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 64.6 tons, a monthly decrease of 4.72%; broadleaf pulp was 135.1 tons, a monthly decrease of 5.85% [5] - **Supply - Domestic Production**: The domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated slightly from July 31 to September 11, 2025 [5] - **Supply - Shipment Volume**: The pulp shipment volume to China in July 2025 was 158 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.00% [5] - **Inventory - Port Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of China's major pulp ports was 206.2 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons from the previous period, a monthly decrease of 0.2% [5] - **Inventory - Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of futures delivery warehouses was 24.5 tons, showing a slight change compared to previous periods [5] - **Demand - Finished Paper Production**: From July 31 to September 11, 2025, the production of double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard fluctuated slightly [5] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On September 12, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 154 with a quantile level of 0.877; the Silver Star basis was 634 with a quantile level of 0.879 [5] - **Import Profit**: On September 12, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 234 with a quantile level of 0.27; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 164 with a quantile level of 0.478 [5] Market Situation - **Supply Side**: Brazil's Suzano announced a 20 - dollar/ton price increase in the Asian market in August 2025. Chile's Arauco notified the August quotes, with the coniferous pulp Silver Star at 720 dollars/ton, broadleaf pulp Star at 520 dollars/ton (supply reduced by 50%), and natural pulp Venus at 590 dollars/ton [5] - **Demand Side**: The current demand for paper products remains basically stable. Some double - offset paper and white cardboard manufacturers have issued price increase letters, but the implementation remains to be seen [5] - **Inventory Side**: As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of China's major pulp ports showed a narrow - range destocking trend [5] Strategy - The pulp fundamentals show no signs of repair, and the pulp port inventory and the number of warehouse receipts have not significantly decreased. It is expected to remain weak in the short term [5]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views - The pulp futures are expected to run strongly [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On August 12, 2025, SP2601 was 5488 with a daily increase of 0.29% and a weekly increase of 1.55%; SP2605 was 5462 with a daily decrease of 0.18% and a weekly decrease of 1.06%; SP2509 was 5216 with a daily increase of 0.27% and a weekly increase of 1.09% [1] - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5850 with no daily change and no weekly change; Russian Needle was 5250 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 1.35%; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4150 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 1.72% [1] - **Outer - disk Quotes (USD)**: Chilean Silver Star was 720, down 2.70% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 510, up 4.08% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620, with no month - on - month change [1] - **Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4182, up 4.03% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073, with no month - on - month change [1] Pulp Fundamental Data Supply - **Imports in June 2025**: Coniferous pulp imports were 67.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.09% compared to May; broadleaf pulp imports were 143.5 tons [1] - **Domestic Production**: Broadleaf pulp production was around 20.6 tons; chemimechanical pulp production was around 20.7 tons [1] - **Supply - side News**: Brazilian Suzano announced a $20/ton price increase in the Asian market in August 2025 and a 3.5% decrease in commodity pulp production in the next 12 months; Asia - Pacific Senbo announced a 150 yuan/ton increase in broadleaf pulp order - taking prices for long - term contract customers only, and the outer - disk pulp volume decreased while prices increased [1] Demand - **Finished Paper Production**: This week, the production of major finished papers increased slightly, but the prices of finished papers remained low, providing weak support for pulp [2] - **Specific Finished Paper Production (July - August 2025)**: Double - offset paper production was around 21.00 tons; coated paper was around 7.70 tons; tissue paper was around 27.86 tons; white cardboard was around 30.70 tons [1] Inventory - As of August 7, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 204.8 tons, a decrease of 5.7 tons from the previous period, a 2.7% month - on - month decrease, showing a de - stocking trend [2] Pulp Valuation Data - On August 12, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 34 with a quantile level of 0.771; the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 34 with a quantile level of 0.546 [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The sentiment of macro commodities has turned positive recently, and prices are expected to rise in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On August 6, 2025, the price of SP2601 was 5428, with a daily increase of 0.44% and a decrease of 1.34% compared to the Japanese version; SP2605 was 5404, with a daily decrease of 0.30% and a decrease of 1.22% compared to the Japanese version; SP2509 was 5170, with a daily increase of 0.19% and a decrease of 2.93% compared to the Japanese version [1] - The spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5850, unchanged from the previous day and down 1.18% compared to the Japanese version; Russian Needle was 5180, unchanged and down 4.43%; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4080, unchanged and down 1.69% [1] Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs - The outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, down 2.70% from the previous period; Chilean Star was 500 dollars, down 10.71%; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, unchanged [1] - The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% from the previous period; Chilean Star was 4101, down 10.60%; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged [1] Supply - In June 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons, down 6.09% from May; broadleaf pulp was 143.5 tons, up 10.98% [1] - The shipment volume of W20 to China in May 2025 was 140, up 3.30% from April [1] - The domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated in July 2025 [1] Inventory - As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of Chinese pulp mainstream ports was 210.5 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons from the previous period, a 1.8% decline [1] - The inventory of the futures delivery warehouse also showed certain changes during the period [1] Demand - The production of major finished papers decreased slightly this week, and the prices of finished papers remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1] Valuation - On August 6, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 10, with a quantile level of 0.72; Silver Star basis was 680, with a quantile level of 0.904 [1] - The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 34, with a quantile level of 0.545; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 21, with a quantile level of 0.613 [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market shows a situation of increasing supply volume and decreasing price on the supply - side, weak support from the demand - side, and a de - stocking trend in inventory. The pulp futures are expected to fluctuate widely between 5100 - 5400 [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On August 1, 2025, SP2601 was 5416 with a daily decrease of 2.80% and a weekly decrease of 0.11%; SP2605 was 5364 with a daily decrease of 0.48% and a weekly increase of 0.22%; SP2509 was 5186 with a daily decrease of 0.88% and a weekly decrease of 6.05% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: On August 1, 2025, the spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5850, unchanged daily and down 1.18% weekly; Russian coniferous pulp was 5300, unchanged daily and down 3.64% weekly; broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4120, unchanged daily and down 0.72% weekly [1]. - **Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs**: In terms of outer - disk quotes (in dollars), Chilean Silver Star was 720, down 2.70% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 500, down 10.71% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620, unchanged month - on - month. In terms of import costs, Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 4101, down 10.60% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged month - on - month [1]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In June 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.09%. The shipment volume of pulp to China in May increased by 3.3% month - on - month. The domestic production of broad - leaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp showed certain fluctuations. Chilean Arauco announced new July wood pulp outer - disk quotes, with an increase in supply volume and a decrease in price [1]. - **Inventory**: As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 210.5 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.8%, showing a de - stocking trend [2]. - **Demand**: This week, the output of major finished paper decreased slightly, and the price of finished paper remained low, providing weak support for pulp [2]. Pulp Valuation Data - On August 1, 2025, the Russian needle basis was 114 with a quantile level of 0.858; the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 34 with a quantile level of 0.545 [1]. Strategy This week, pulp futures returned to fundamental pricing and are expected to fluctuate widely between 5100 - 5400 [2].